An important eye-test variable that fans and media like to apply to their favourites is the difficulty of a goaltender’s environment. “My goalie,” they argue, “might not have elite numbers, but he’s behind a weaker defence than the other goaltenders.” Fortunately, based on its expected save percentage values, CSA is able to determine which goaltender environments were the easiest and which the most difficult.
Unsurprisingly, of the 42 total goaltenders facing at least 870 shots, Bishop played in the easiest environment in the league. Lehner had the second easiest time of it, while Kuemper ranked fourth. If your eye test was telling you these goalies played within solid defensive structures, your eyes were not deceiving you.
Vasilevskiy, Gibson, Fleury and Andersen were in the uninteresting middle of the pack, casting doubt on the narrative that Andersen’s defence abandoned him often, or that Gibson’s Ducks, while undoubtedly allowing a deluge of shots, allowed an inordinate number of dangerous ones.
Things gets interesting again when we look closer to the bottom of the list. Rinne, who spent most of his career behind a superb Nashville blue line and strangling defensive structure, was surprisingly in the 33rd-ranked environment. Less surprisingly, Price’s environment ranked 36th, and astoundingly, Halak’s was 40th.
Performance above an already high expectation is good, of course, but I believe performance above a very low expectation is even better. When routinely facing higher quality shots, it takes far more precision, game in and game out, to keep bad habits from creeping into your game. When you know you’re going to face only a couple of great chances a game, it’s easier to trust your defence and avoid cheating on odd-man rushes or long lateral plays. When you’re behind a weaker defensive structure, the unpredictability of the shots you’ll face make every save more difficult – once you commit, you’re always worried about the option you aren’t covering. By this criterion, Bishop’s, Lehner’s, and Kuemper’s stock drops significantly, while Halak’s, Rinne’s, and Price’s rises.