Score is exactly what I was looking for but this game is being played fast and open without much defensive resistance. Unless something changes with this tempo I'll be passing this game.
Silver Dollar - The Official NBA Betting Thread!
- Thread starter HomeRunBaker
- Start date
Agreed! I jumped in a little too early and our bench guys are playing hard. Learning (I hope)!
Got it in bad and sucked out on the river. Hope someone hammered the under when it was up in the low 230s.
OKC -2.5 @ Golden St, O/U 227.5 and market hasn't moved on the overnights.
I don't know what to make of this as none of it makes sense to me...although I admittedly adjust more aggressively than most on variables. On one hand, OKC plays among the fastest in the league yet on the other you'll have Chris Paul playing heavy minutes and walking the ball upcourt. At halftime of the Wolves game my rhetorical question was how were the Warriors ever going to score in the 2H after a simple halftime adjustment to lockup Podziemski... the only thing that changes here is asking that same question with the disclaimer "except for Klay going nuclear."
I played OKC -2.5 pregame and will add some Warriors TT Under 112 once they post, and even though I rarely play props may look at some Klay Overs, Pts and 3-pt makes and attempts. I will be targeting Warrior 2H Unders, game and/or TT, similar to the Wolves game along with live spots. If I'm confident in my read on game flow I may step in strong again. This one is intriguing so I'll chime in as it goes.
EDIT: Don't forget we have CBB early start time neutral court tournament games stating in the morning. Neutral court Unders have historically been a gold mine however they've been both adjusted and pounded on openers in recent years. Still, something to watch.
I don't know what to make of this as none of it makes sense to me...although I admittedly adjust more aggressively than most on variables. On one hand, OKC plays among the fastest in the league yet on the other you'll have Chris Paul playing heavy minutes and walking the ball upcourt. At halftime of the Wolves game my rhetorical question was how were the Warriors ever going to score in the 2H after a simple halftime adjustment to lockup Podziemski... the only thing that changes here is asking that same question with the disclaimer "except for Klay going nuclear."
I played OKC -2.5 pregame and will add some Warriors TT Under 112 once they post, and even though I rarely play props may look at some Klay Overs, Pts and 3-pt makes and attempts. I will be targeting Warrior 2H Unders, game and/or TT, similar to the Wolves game along with live spots. If I'm confident in my read on game flow I may step in strong again. This one is intriguing so I'll chime in as it goes.
EDIT: Don't forget we have CBB early start time neutral court tournament games stating in the morning. Neutral court Unders have historically been a gold mine however they've been both adjusted and pounded on openers in recent years. Still, something to watch.
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Day game tournaments. The gift that keeps giving. On the first day of Christmas my true love game to me:
A Charlestown/Vermont half time under
A Charlestown/Vermont full game under
A St John's/North Texas half time under
and a few more open games...
On the second day of christmas, my true love gave to me..........
And we have three more days of these...!
A Charlestown/Vermont half time under
A Charlestown/Vermont full game under
A St John's/North Texas half time under
and a few more open games...
On the second day of christmas, my true love gave to me..........
And we have three more days of these...!
Okay, you turtledoves, can we just agree we want Tatum to finish with more than five golden rings?Ok dude this is where I draw the line. Mods?
Vermont tried like hell to spoil that full game under. Also managed to squeak by with the St. Louis/Wyoming U149.5. Didn't get in on any others.
The early games 1H/FG went 6-0. Pretty freakin nuts that in 2023 blind betting mispriced variables are still profitable. Anyway, on to The Association.....
Friday Night there should be a spot once overnights get posted. My number in Orlando/Chicago is 208 and there is no chance this opens anywhere close to that. 215/216? I expect it to get hit down to 213 so grabbing early. Both offenses have their issues, both play slower than avg, and the Magic have an elite defense. Watch this shortly.
Friday Night there should be a spot once overnights get posted. My number in Orlando/Chicago is 208 and there is no chance this opens anywhere close to that. 215/216? I expect it to get hit down to 213 so grabbing early. Both offenses have their issues, both play slower than avg, and the Magic have an elite defense. Watch this shortly.
You don't get days like this often. What a fuckin glorious one! Ravens live once Burrow went down was pretty much free money too. This was one for the ages. Hope you guys crushed.
Between this and trivia, today was more like Thunder beat the Warriors, not Lakers beat the Supersonics.
I spent most of the day confused by this market. We know about Curry but Draymond is so crucial to the Warriors offense with his initiation, screens, and rolls that rotates rhe defense....everyone literally saw this in the 2H vs the Wolves. Was the market devaluing Draymond or overvaluing the other Warriors, most of who are pretty much trash? I feel it is way behind on the Thunder as well.
Two games in a row, perfect storms fading the Warriors without a sweat....and now these two teams run it back with the same personnel in 48 hours.
Great call.
Looking for some more compelling in-game tournament action today. Celtics weirdly opened at -4.5 but already up to 6.5/7
Looking for some more compelling in-game tournament action today. Celtics weirdly opened at -4.5 but already up to 6.5/7
Seven NCAA games with start times at or before 2pm EST. Any particular ones any of you like more than others? The 11am game is currently at 157.5!
I don't cap CBB myself I swap the sport with a pro friend in exchange for my MMA stuff. The only angles I'll play are the blind Unders openers (prior to the move) for total of 33-50% of normal play, 1H/FG, on early starts at neutral sites, and of course in-game by constantly scrolling 1H box scores looking for 3pt shooting abberations. Aside from that, CBB is a slaughterhouse unless you get the right numbers as @Red Averages can attest with his RAS experience. We won our last two games by a half point by exchanging early prior to release/movement. Had I got in afterward it would have been an L. CBB espeically is not a place to be arriving late to the party. I could go on for hours about how these Totals have been priced over the years, from literally 15-pt edges 10-20 years ago, to being overtly adjusted to Overs being an edge and now seemingly back with value on Unders. You're playing numbers not teams.
If you want to dive in yourself go for it, it's easy. Simply find some +/- data filled with noise, small samples and zero context, maybe filter for matchups with rock concert level noise, irrelevant small samples, be sure to maintain your zero context policy and your on your way to a wonderful career in basketball prognostication!
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Seems like this line hasn't moved overnight - you still expect it to move, or do you think 216 is about right?
That's about where I expected it to open but my number is lower. Then again, OKC didn't budge but half a point all day yesterday and it's NBA so I don't mind at all not having market edges. If it were CBB I would be valuing market moves MUCH MUCH greater.
if it doesn't, just leaves more room for in-game leverage should it prove itself out.
Yep. I got in at 216.5 and gonna play it out in-game.
I'm much less experienced at NBA betting than I am NFL and I have to say I'm just getting pounded by a half point here or a point there. It's amazing to me how accurate so many of these NBA totals are, both team totals as well as individual prop bets. Like, I'm literally shaking my head at some of these outcomes. Tip of the hat to those of you that have such a good grip on NBA betting!
Hope that 1 game was Wyoming.
I won't be around much the next few days or a whole lot over the next week. Beginning 24 hour drive in a couple hours up north for holidays. Aside from tonight's Bulls/Magic total some other things I'm looking for are the Clippers to steamroll someone really soon be it Houston tonight or the Spurs after that. Too much talent, they are too motivated to make this work and they are playing hard having nearly beat the Nuggets in Denver. Warriors without Steph and Draymond could be the worst team in the league but they won't be priced as such so good value continuing to fade them.
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My Charleston under 78.5 looks pretty good right now, until the inevitable double OT or something.
Safe travels @HomeRunBaker and enjoy the holiday.
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OKC opened -2.5 and immediately bet down to -1 which has to be information of Curry playing in this game. If you hear he isn't I'd jump if you can get a similar number but I'm sure it wouldn't last long. I'd guess -5.5/-6 without him but then again it didn't budge last game so who knows.
Curry playing.
also fyi there is a 10:30am college game tomorrow. Gotta love college basketball
also fyi there is a 10:30am college game tomorrow. Gotta love college basketball
I find myself researching Wyoming and Furman mens basketball score history. I may have issues...
Hope your research led you to bet the under! I now find myself looking ahead to the TN-Syracuse Monday game tipping off at 2:30 ET, but they’re in Hawaii.
Cashed the 10:30 under and took the Orlando/Indy U234. Goofy 5 pm start and Magic defense hopefully worth a look.
Taking Memphis under team total 103.5 at the half here vs the Celtics. Back-back, 8 players out, Celtics can/should run away with this after a regroup at the half.
Yeah, well when Bane goes unconscious from 3 you’ll start sweating. Btw he’d look great on the Celtics….
Nice cap to what I'm going to assume was a pretty good week!
Who else has the cajones to play the Hornets +9 tonight? Estimated travel scenario for the C's last night....grab quick post-game spread, shower, likely skip post-game stretch, ice, board plane, etc, takeoff 9:30-10pm. Two hour flight to Charlotte, deplane, shuttle to hotel, in room 12:30-1am. Oh wait, time change, 1:30-2am. Unwind, bed 2:30-3am after playing a road game, facing rested (and very bad) Hornets team in their building while thinking of the Bucks on Wednesday. That's best case for everyone. Expecting to see some healthy scratches and plenty of our deep bench in the rotation tonight. Grab the number while it's still there. I missed the 9.5
Charlottes only successes this year came against defensive juggernauts Atlanta, Indiana, Dallas and Washington...and Miami when PJ Washington went nuclear. Every other game was double digit loss. Make no mistake this is a bad team with no identity. It's a spot where Boston plays down to whoever the opponent is and the worse the opponent the less motivation there is. These are NBA travel spots that you have to play. Nothing abnormal but a standard spot. Broke down simply due to it being he C's and the dynamics surrounding the game. Celts probably win by 25 now lol.
Are you worried about whoever plays for Boston being pissed at how close the Memphis game was, and thus more focused in this one?
Off a loss this is a real dynamic. Off a close win it's an exhale game. Players gain motivation/focus off losses and complacent off wins especially within an 82-game schedule.
I took Celtics -8.5. I agree with everything HRB says and on paper this looks like a classic letdown spot, but the Celtics have kicked the ever-loving shit out of Charlotte their past several meetings and I have a hard time believing that stops tonight. Probably should have just passed but hey it's always fun to watch these boring November games when you have a little action.
Charlottes defense may be the worst this league has seen in several years. I ended up playing more Over 233.5 in the game as well. Both teams should score at will....Boston by default and the Hornets against a Celtics defense that should be going through the motions.
The difference was that those other games were not this same setup as tonight which was the basis for the play. Finally got the good side of variance with an OT Over!! It's accepted that I'm going to be wrong side of these 90% of the time as 90% of my Total plays are Under but that feels nicer
True, but not how I expected it would play out. Figured they’d have been flat all night if Charlotte would cover, not throttle them in the first half only to completely shit down their leg in the second. Onto the next.
What a wild week in college tournaments. We have 10am games in Maui, 3pm games in Cancun, the leverage in my accounts is obscene.
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1:30am game tonight lol. It's hard to stay focused on NBA with all this great action going on. Full slate tomorrow....time to get to work.
Lean on Cavs and Magic tonight.
Nailed it HRB! Jumped on the Cavs ML when they were up 3 at the end of 1Q and still +200. Also cashed Harris O16.5 pts thanks to @CaptainLaddie. Nice evening all around thanks to you gents!
I was going to post Celtics last night when it was 3.5 and 4.5 but got tied up so I didn't even play it. So aggravated. I think this is a binary game where points won't come into play. I lean to us being up for this while winning big and am going to play some winning margin props if my PPHs post them....right now C's game is one of the few that aren't posted. How about a 123-99 final?
Thoughts on Jrue props? Points over? Steals? I love me some good revenge games.