Skewed rankings

TomRicardo

rusty cohlebone
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Feb 6, 2006
19,657
Row 14
 

TomRicardo said:
 
God no.
 
People really need to stop looking directly at the rankings.  The rankings get biased towards Latin American position players and away from college position players.  This is because talent scouts see guys who get signed at 16 a lot longer and they are far more projectable.  Taveras was the #23 prospect in baseball before Betts at 5 professional ABs.  
 
Taveras has a much better bat and more power but Betts has way more plate discipline and is much better on the base paths. Probably they are around equal or Taveras is a bit better on the field at RF though Betts will probably end up with a better arm and range.  Betts is a far superior 2B than Taveras is a CF.
 
Taveras has ridiculous Nomaresque batting skills where Betts has versatility and great speed and good plate discipline.  

 
 
I think it would be interesting to discuss what other think about prospect rankings being unnaturally skewed towards Latin position players and away from college position players.  i think International FA (Bonus Babies) in general get an unnatural bias to drafted players.
 
In the last 5 years(2009-2013) only 6 International FA made it into the top ten bWAR:
 
Cano (3), Cabrera (2), Beltre (2), Jiminez, Ramirez, Gomez
 
So International FAs only took up 9 of the 50 possible spots.  39 were drafted players and Iwakuma (A Japanese free agent).
 
Yet over the last 5 years the top ten prospects (Baseball America) of baseball 13 Bonus Babies (14 if you count Chapman) took up 20 of the 50 spots.  Drafted player took up 28 spots while 2 went to Japanese Free Agents.
 
Either there is a lot more talent coming out of Latin America now or the prospect lists are skewed.
 

TomRicardo

rusty cohlebone
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Feb 6, 2006
19,657
Row 14
The Allented Mr Ripley said:
Stanton wasn't an international FA.
 
You are right.  My mistake.  He made it to the majors so quickly I thought he was
 

jscola85

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
1,305
I think it is natural to get really excited about guys who are so young and display the tools that some of the guys coming out of the Caribbean display.  Hell, we fall prey to it ourselves - just look at how closely everyone is watching Rafael Devers in the GCL these days.  When a guy is so young, the error bars on his projection are really wide, leading to scouts seeing a ton of upside but perhaps not properly risk-adjusting that down due to the tremendous downside that faces many 17 and 18 year old prospects in the earliest stages of professional ball.
 

Dummy Hoy

Angry Pissbum
SoSH Member
Jul 22, 2006
6,527
Falmouth
A lot of prospect rankers admit that they place a heavy emphasis on ceiling, which would skew things towards physical, toolsy LA teenagers instead of 22 year old American kids.