Sox acquire Rick Porcello for Yoenis Cespedes, Alex Wilson, and Gabe Speier

[MentalDisabldLst]

Porcello isn't a home run, but he's a solid line drive basehit.  He gives 200 innings of MLB-quality starting pitching.  <snip>
 
In short, while I don't love the player, I love the deal.

 
This isn't a base hit, this is at least a double from our perspective.
 
Last couple years for Porcello:
 
Year: bWAR, FIP, K/9 / BB/9 = K/BB
2012: 1.5, 3.91, 5.5 / 2.2 = 2.43
2013: 2.4, 3.53, 7.2 / 2.1 = 3.38
2014: 4.0, 3.67, 5.7 / 1.8 = 3.15
 
All of that is extremely encouraging, especially in the context of team defense.  DET last 3 years has had a fielding efficiency of .678, .682 and .673, ranking 26th, 26th and 29th in baseball.  And he's 25, just entering his prime.  Suppose we expect him to replicate his 2014 season and come away with 4 WAR... that's $24M in value each year, with his salary less than half that.  Major surplus value - and an opportunity to pay him more than he'd otherwise expect this year in return for discounts in future years.
 
So we didn't trade the future away, and we got a year of that level of performance, plus a solid opportunity to extend him.  This trade makes the 2015 Sox hugely better, and later years just as much if we can extend the Port Cellar.
 
edit: added quote

 

[nvalvo]

Let's take a second to think about the infield difference. In 2013, Porcello pitched to a 96 ERA+ in front of a Fielder, Infante, Peralta, Cabrera infield. That's *horrible.* Collectively, they racked up -3.2 dWAR, per B-R. 
 
Put him (and Miley, too) in front of Pedroia, Panda, Xander, and Napoli, and watch the double plays accrue. Xander should be the worst defender there. He'd have been at least the second best defender in that Tigers' group — I'm assuming he's about as good as Peralta. 
 
But the infield defense isn't the only thing: all of these guys, being groundballers, work at the bottom of the zone. Think of the strikes at the knees Vazquez is going to frame! Hitters are going to need to swing at some shin-level two-seam BS. I predict a ton of 1-3 put outs. 

 

[Drek717]

Hopefully Xander is renting. Hamels?

This staff decreases his value to our team and his bat is now a question mark. Marrero's value to us just skyrocketed and his bat isn't a question mark.....it's non-existent! Tough to have both Marrero and Christian in the lineup together but interesting nonetheless.

Yes, because Xander Bogaerts is an epicly bad defensive SS.  
 
Oh wait, no, he's just below average and better than Derek Jeter, Hanley Ramirez, and many, many other full time SS ever were when he was only 21 and switching to 3B in the middle of his first season.
 
If Xander is going it better bring back Sale or Gray.  Trading him for Hamels would negate basically any and all good the FO accomplished by getting Miley and Procello without giving up the top youngsters.

 

[nvalvo]

Yes, because Xander Bogaerts is an epicly bad defensive SS.  
 
Oh wait, no, he's just below average and better than Derek Jeter, Hanley Ramirez, and many, many other full time SS ever were when he was only 21 and switching to 3B in the middle of his first season.
 
If Xander is going it better bring back Sale or Gray.  Trading him for Hamels would negate basically any and all good the FO accomplished by getting Miley and Procello without giving up the top youngsters.

 
I think following Iglesias and Drew was tough for fan appreciation of Bogaerts' glove. If, say, Jed Lowrie had been lumbering around out there the last few years, not an eye would be batted. 

 

[brandonchristensen]

I like this trade a lot.
 
I saw in the "NEW THREADS" window that they acquired Porcello...clicked hesitantly...saw Cespedes...okay that's okay...Alex Wilson...not bad not bad...Gabe Speier...
 
YES!

 

[brandonchristensen]

When was the last time that a team rebuilt to this extent this many times in a short time period?
 
Since 2010 we have rebuilt the entire face of the team, failed, burned it down overnight, rebuilt, won it all, immediately fell apart and now are building a SERIOUS contender again only one year later?

 

[OCD SS]

From the annals of history department, Porcello should be remembered as the high-upside player who was falling in the draft that would've been available to the Sox if they had not given up their draft pick to sign... Julio Lugo.

 

[Pumpsie]

When was the last time that a team rebuilt to this extent this many times in a short time period?
 
Since 2010 we have rebuilt the entire face of the team, failed, burned it down overnight, rebuilt, won it all, immediately fell apart and now are building a SERIOUS contender again only one year later?

Yes, indeed.  Ben is in full Cherington rebuild a team mode again, and you have to like it.  Love the Porcello trade for Cespedes.

 

[Plympton91]

I am shocked that they got a pitcher as young, as good, and still with the upside of Porcello for Cespedes and two throw-ins. Speier is a very interesting prospect who could easily rocket up the rankings next season, but he is essentially equal value to the compensation pick that is possible for Porcello and not for Cespedes, so including him makes perfect sense from both teams' perspectives. That makes it Cespedes and Wilson for Porcello, and Wilson is not clearly superior to Heath Hembree if at all.

Great trade by Cherington. Even if Porcello walks for nothing more than the compensation pick, they traded two meaningless months of John Lester and Alex Wilson for a full year of Rick Porcello. Great, great, great trade.

I'm glad to be wrong about Cespedes' diminished value relative to the trading deadline.

 

[singaporesoxfan]

I like how Alex Speier said "Can confirm that Tigers and Sox have framework of a Cespedes for Porcello deal, have not yet heard name(s) of other player(s) involved" and the names turned out to be Alex and Speier.

 

[curly2]

From the annals of history department, Porcello should be remembered as the high-upside player who was falling in the draft that would've been available to the Sox if they had not given up their draft pick to sign... Julio Lugo.

 
And to prove how much of a crapshoot the draft can be, the Sox took Nick Hagadone at 55 and Ryan Dent at 62. At 67 was Jordan Zimmermann and at 72 was Giancarlo Stanton.

 

[Ed Hillel]

As it stands today, I really like this trade, especially if the Sox can work out a fair extension as I think Porcello is going to continue to improve. However, here's my overall problem with it. If the Red Sox dangle Lester for Porcello at the trade deadline last year, what else is Detroit throwing in to get the deal done? I know Porcello was pitching well, but Lester was on another level and you know how badly the Tigers owner is Illitching to get a championship before he croaks. I can't help but think the Sox could have done better for Lester last year.

 

[smastroyin]

Austin Jackson?
 
I think you would have had to have gotten in ahead of the Price deal, basically.

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

 
I think following Iglesias and Drew was tough for fan appreciation of Bogaerts' glove. If, say, Jed Lowrie had been lumbering around out there the last few years, not an eye would be batted. 

Not that he's available, but I was kind of thinking that Iglesias would be an ideal UT for the Sox right now.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Austin Jackson?
 
I think you would have had to have gotten in ahead of the Price deal, basically.

 
I understand what you are saying, but would Detroit really have balked at upgrading their their rotation even more (the last year Scherzer was a sure thing) for the sake of a couple million bucks that wouldn't have put them over the luxury cap? I get there's also the 2015 season for Porcello, but I think Illitch would have made the trade and still offered up a decent prospect or two on top. Maybe it was explored and the Tigers said no, but I would find it surprising.

 

[Lowrielicious]

As it stands today, I really like this trade, especially if the Sox can work out a fair extension as I think Porcello is going to continue to improve. However, here's my overall problem with it. If the Red Sox dangle Lester for Porcello at the trade deadline last year, what else is Detroit throwing in to get the deal done? I know Porcello was pitching well, but Lester was on another level and you know how badly the Tigers owner is Illitching to get a championship before he croaks. I can't help but think the Sox could have done better for Lester last year.

In a vacuum you could argue that a year of Porcello plus a draft pick (following a declined QO) is worth more than a year of Cespedes. Plus the difference in other smaller pieces that may have happened.

But lester was trade prior to the Castillo signing and prior to Betts showing that he could hit major league pitching and play above average defense in the outfield at the major league level. The redsox needs were totally different at that point in time.

Plus that was before they knew they missed out on re-signing Lester.

 

[BringBagwelltoBoston]

 
People keep harping on the Vermont farm, but Porcello is also from Morristown, NJ, which is only about 4 hours down the highway from Boston.   

 
And his grandfather was signed by the Sox and started his MLB career here...   http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dentesa01.shtml 

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

 
People keep harping on the Vermont farm, but Porcello is also from Morristown, NJ, which is only about 4 hours down the highway from Boston.   

 
And he went to high school at Seton Hall Prep in West Orange, NJ, just around the corner from Seton Hall U in South Orange, where Mo Vaughn and John Valentin played together at right around the time Porcello was born. Sox connections abound.

 

[soxhop411]

Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi  11m11 minutes ago
In 5 MLB seasons, Rick Porcello has had 0 trips to the disabled list.

 

[soxhop411]

The Tigers didn’t trade Rick Porcello to the Red Sox due to a lack of progress in extension talks, Porcello’s agent Jim Murray tells FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi.  The two sides “briefly discussed” extending Porcello’s contract beyond the 2015 season, Murray said, “but it was more in the context of something both parties may or may not talk about in the future.”  Here’s some more from around the AL Central…
 

MLBTR

 

[InsideTheParker]

Someone on mlbn was speculating that Porcello and the Tigers didn't get anywhere discussing an extension b/c Boras likes to take his guys to free agency, and that Porcello, if he has a good year, will be highly valued (i.e., far from cheap) b/c of his age.

 

[IpswichSox]

Someone on mlbn was speculating that Porcello and the Tigers didn't get anywhere discussing an extension b/c Boras likes to take his guys to free agency, and that Porcello, if he has a good year, will be highly valued (i.e., far from cheap) b/c of his age.

 
I've read the "Boras represents Porcello" line, too, and it's been mentioned on Boston radio. But is it true?
 
Baseball Reference lists Porcello's agent as Hendricks Sports.  SoxHop's post above from MLBTR quotes Fox saying his agent is Jim Murray.  Murray formally was with Hendricks and now is with Excel Sports Management.  
 
Edit: Also this:
 
https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/543078081406468097

 

[The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa]

 
I've read the "Boras represents Porcello" line, too, and it's been mentioned on Boston radio. But is it true?
 
Baseball Reference lists Porcello's agent as Hendricks Sports.  SoxHop's post above from MLBTR quotes Fox saying his agent is Jim Murray.  Murray formally was with Hendricks and now is with Excel Sports Management.  
 
Edit: Also this:
 
 
 
 
https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/543078081406468097

 
Indeed. Porcello dumped Boras in 2009.

 

[InsideTheParker]

Good news on Porcello's change of agent. Thanks a bunch. I wonder if I am going to need to  filter anything I hear on mlbn.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

I really hope that part of the plan is to negotiate with Porcello NOW about a reasonable extension.  Offer him something like a 3 year/$42M deal, locking up his prime years but giving him another shot at FA before he hits 30.

 

[TOleary25]

I really hope that part of the plan is to negotiate with Porcello NOW about a reasonable extension.  Offer him something like a 3 year/$42M deal, locking up his prime years but giving him another shot at FA before he hits 30.

 
That doesn't seem like enough years or AAV for him to consider an extension. Homer Bailey's extension seems like a good comp, 6 years $105M is something I think the Sox should be willing to do. But your point remains, they should make every effort to extend him now.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Given his youth, I'm hoping they can sell him on a shorter years, higher AAV deal.  The $14M per I suggested is more than what Liriano and McCarthy just got.  You might be right that they'd need to get even higher to sell him on a shorter years deal.  4/$60?  That's more per year and more overall than the mid-level SPs have been getting.  Will there really be that many teams out there willing to pay Porcello like a borderline #1?  Anyway, it's worth exploring. 

 

[P'tucket rhymes with...]

Given his youth, I'm hoping they can sell him on a shorter years, higher AAV deal.  The $14M per I suggested is more than what Liriano and McCarthy just got.  You might be right that they'd need to get even higher to sell him on a shorter years deal.  4/$60?  That's more per year and more overall than the mid-level SPs have been getting.  Will there really be that many teams out there willing to pay Porcello like a borderline #1?  Anyway, it's worth exploring. 

Liriano and McCarthy aren't vaguely comparable.  He's 5-6 years younger than both, is just hitting his stride, and just had a season that was superior to both.  If he puts together another season like the last one, he'll get paid like a borderline #1 because that's pretty much what he'll be.  I don't know why he'd be prioritizing his chances at a second contract at the age of thirty when a big, honking contract is a year away, unless he has reason to believe his arm is going to fall off this season.

 

[foulkehampshire]

Liriano and McCarthy aren't vaguely comparable.  He's 5-6 years younger than both, is just hitting his stride, and just had a season that was superior to both.  If he puts together another season like the last one, he'll get paid like a borderline #1 because that's pretty much what he'll be.  I don't know why he'd be prioritizing his chances at a second contract at the age of thirty when a big, honking contract is a year away, unless he has reason to believe his arm is going to fall off this season.

 
He's not going to make #1 type money due to his K/9. I'd be very comfortable locking him up for several years though, given his age. 

 

[P'tucket rhymes with...]

 
He's not going to make #1 type money due to his K/9. I'd be very comfortable locking him up for several years though, given his age. 

Maybe, maybe not.  The larger point is that Porcello is going to make $12+ million this year, which will bring his career earnings to about $35 million.  He's established himself as a steady three-win per year guy over the last three years.  Unless he's wildly risk-aversive, 3/42 or 4/60 is going to be every bit as productive as 4/70 was with Lester last spring.

 

[Plympton91]

Yeah, my guess is that if they want to lock up Porcello, they'd have to go for the 6/$105 deal Bailey got and maybe add 10% for inflation over the past two years. If I were him, I'd be looking for something like 7/$134 to give up free agency a year from now.

 

[Kid T]

In a vacuum you could argue that a year of Porcello plus a draft pick (following a declined QO) is worth more than a year of Cespedes. Plus the difference in other smaller pieces that may have happened.

 
Not to quibble, but wouldn't Cespedes (declining a QO) also garner a draft pick?    One might further argue that Cespedes would be more likely to decline a QO than Porcello given all the FA SP that will be available next offseason. 

 

[Marbleheader]

 
Not to quibble, but wouldn't Cespedes (declining a QO) also garner a draft pick?    One might further argue that Cespedes would be more likely to decline a QO than Porcello given all the FA SP that will be available next offseason. 

Cespedes contract written so that no qualifying offer can be made. No draft pick can be received.

 

[benhogan]

Yeah, my guess is that if they want to lock up Porcello, they'd have to go for the 6/$105 deal Bailey got and maybe add 10% for inflation over the past two years. If I were him, I'd be looking for something like 7/$134 to give up free agency a year from now.

Those are the type of numbers a low #1/high #2, one year away from free agency, throw around. 
 
You must be stoked with the last few days then, right?

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Yeah, my guess is that if they want to lock up Porcello, they'd have to go for the 6/$105 deal Bailey got and maybe add 10% for inflation over the past two years. If I were him, I'd be looking for something like 7/$134 to give up free agency a year from now.

 
Lester just got 6/155 guaranteed on the open market as a borderline ace with a dominant post season record. What makes you think that buying out one year of cost control is going to cost 7/134? Porcello is a nice pitcher, but there is absolutely no way his market is anywhere near Lester's. Yes, the AAV is about 6 million less, but that's a huge contract for a guy who's career high fWAR is 3.2. Lester has beaten that in every single one of his full major league seasons but one, and the one year he didn't was 2012 and he had 3.2.
 
Porello's ERA's in his full seasons are 4.92, 4.75, 4.59, 4.32 and 3.43. His FIPs are 4.31, 4.06, 3.91, 3.53 and 3.67. Lester's ERA's are 3.21, 3.41, 3.25, 3.47, 4.82, 3.75 and 2.46. His FIPs are 3.64, 3.15, 3,13, 3,83, 4.11, 3.59, 2.80. Porcello should probably be looking for something closer to half of Lester's AAV. At most 65%. So 13-16 million AAV over 4 or 5 years is probably a fair offer.
 
If push came to shove, I wouldn't go more than 6/96 or so. He's headed in the right direction and definitely has real value, but if he was on the free agent market right now I don't think he gets anything near 7/134. Even if we use Fangraphs.com's inflated dollar worth, you'd need to be projecting that Porcello is likely to run off 7 straight years where he is more valuable than his most valuable season to date (17 million in 2014). I just don't see it.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

I like Porcello and am happy the Sox acquired him, but I think he's closer to a 6 / $80M deal type. I have a hard time imagining him signing an extension that would make the Sox happy at this point. He's a lot closer to a Liriano or Santana than a Lester or Scherzer.

 
6/80 comes out to $13.3M per year, well south of a qualifying offer, for his age 26, 27, 28, 29, 30 and 31 seasons - and you're only buying out one year of arbitration (which is projected to be around $12M for 2015 anyway). Unless his arm is shredded wheat, I make that deal without thinking twice.
 
I think even 6/96 would be very reasonable for him.

 

[P'tucket rhymes with...]

I like Porcello and am happy the Sox acquired him, but I think he's closer to a 6 / $80M deal type. I have a hard time imagining him signing an extension that would make the Sox happy at this point. He's a lot closer to a Liriano or Santana than a Lester or Scherzer.

7/134 stikes me as too extravagant as well, although I think comparing him to a bunch of 30-31 year olds is problematic, and I'd guess 6/80 is too low for him to bite on.  He's going to be 26 on opening day, and his 2014 season compares pretty closely to...James Shields's 2014.   I don't think he's future HOF great or anything, but an established 26 year old with a career fWAR of 15.3 that you can pencil in for 3 wins a year (possibly better) for the next six years is exactly the kind of guy that Ben and the FO have been keeping their powder dry for.
 
Can he actually do that?  No idea, but he's certainly trending in the right direction.  I'll be surprised if the FO and Porcello find an acceptable middle ground before he hits the market; there aren't enough pre-FA years to buy out for the FO to get him at a price they'd be comfortable betting on before he actually throws a pitch for them.
 
Edit--6/90 is closer, although it would probably take a fairly rich, easy-to-vest 7th year.  

 

[radsoxfan]

I hope they offer him 4/70

 

[Plympton91]

 
Lester just got 6/155 guaranteed on the open market as a borderline ace with a dominant post season record. What makes you think that buying out one year of cost control is going to cost 7/134? Porcello is a nice pitcher, but there is absolutely no way his market is anywhere near Lester's. Yes, the AAV is about 6 million less, but that's a huge contract for a guy who's career high fWAR is 3.2. Lester has beaten that in every single one of his full major league seasons but one, and the one year he didn't was 2012 and he had 3.2.
 
Porello's ERA's in his full seasons are 4.92, 4.75, 4.59, 4.32 and 3.43. His FIPs are 4.31, 4.06, 3.91, 3.53 and 3.67. Lester's ERA's are 3.21, 3.41, 3.25, 3.47, 4.82, 3.75 and 2.46. His FIPs are 3.64, 3.15, 3,13, 3,83, 4.11, 3.59, 2.80. Porcello should probably be looking for something closer to half of Lester's AAV. At most 65%. So 13-16 million AAV over 4 or 5 years is probably a fair offer.
 
If push came to shove, I wouldn't go more than 6/96 or so. He's headed in the right direction and definitely has real value, but if he was on the free agent market right now I don't think he gets anything near 7/134. Even if we use Fangraphs.com's inflated dollar worth, you'd need to be projecting that Porcello is likely to run off 7 straight years where he is more valuable than his most valuable season to date (17 million in 2014). I just don't see it.

Yeah, I get what you're saying. What I'm saying is if I were a 26 year old on the verge of free agency with those trends in my ERA and FIP, I'd be perfectly content to go to arbitration and then bet on myself having a monster year that puts me in Lester territory, except 3 years younger. If you want to buy me out of that possibility, then you've got to pretty far up to that Lester stratosphere. Even 3 WAR is worth $21 million a year in free agency.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Jeff Sullivan at Fangraphs speculated that something like 5/80 or 5/85 would be something that might work for an extension. (this was in his chat from today).
So that's what 16-17M a year and he hits FA at age 31 for one last deal.

 

[Comebacker to Foulke]

Jeff Sullivan at Fangraphs speculated that something like 5/80 or 5/85 would be something that might work for an extension. (this was in his chat from today).
So that's what 16-17M a year and he hits FA at age 31 for one last deal.

 

[Comebacker to Foulke]

Do it Ben. Good pitcher, reasonable price, perfect years to nail down.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Do it Ben. Good pitcher, reasonable price, perfect years to nail down.

Please don't game thread on the main board. Thanks.

 

[Comebacker to Foulke]

"Game thread"

What does this mean? No snark intended. Thead's about Porchello, post went up about possible extension parameters, I posted in a way that indicated I thought those were good terms for the pitcher the thread's about.

Edit-thanks Sprowl

 

[sackamano]

Who's Porchello?

 

[Sprowl]

"Game thread"

What does this mean? No snark intended. Thead's about Porchello, post went up about possible extension parameters, I posted in a way that indicated I thought those were good terms for the pitcher the thread's about.

 
It means that you are tossing out opinions without supporting argument or evidence:
 

 
Do it Ben. Good pitcher, reasonable price, perfect years to nail down.

 
All supportable opinions, I suppose, but not exactly conclusive. Why do you think those are good terms? What makes that reasonable? Five years are perfect because... why, exactly?

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi   [URL="https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/543257262706270210

https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/543257262706270210"]11m11

link to tweet minutes ago[/url]
In 5 MLB seasons, Rick Porcello has had 0 trips to the disabled list.

With Buchholz and Kelly in the rotation (as it stands today) this cannot be overstated. Same goes for Miley.

 

[Comebacker to Foulke]

A figure of 6 million per the price of 1 fWAR on the FA market, attached to Porcello's average of 3 fWAR for the last 3 seasons, comes out to 18 million per year. Its not crazy to imagine the price of a win to creep upward over the next 5 years.

Rick has a lifetime 97 FIP-. As a durable pitcher. Seems to me, this is the kind of guy you might want to lock up for his age 26-30 seasons. Whether or not it can be done, is another question.

 

[MikeM]

Jeff Sullivan at Fangraphs speculated that something like 5/80 or 5/85 would be something that might work for an extension. (this was in his chat from today).
So that's what 16-17M a year and he hits FA at age 31 for one last deal.

 
As opposed to what if we wait though? I mean barring the possibility Porcello rattles off a CY Young caliber season, how much more (if any) is he realistically projected to get on the open market atm? Even factoring in his age i just can't see teams lining up with the 7-8 year deal scenario, usually reserved for the elite and which plays against our otherwise competitive-as-anybody strength. 
 
Part of the beauty of this trade (imo) is getting that in-house look before paying out the market value dollars. From the risk vs reward standpoint, i ultimately just don't see there being any hurry to ink an extension. If he pitches well for us this year and wants to be here, the "fit" will still be there latter. Generally speaking, sweating that extra year for a guy's age 32 season is a lot different then the $25m/per 37-38 one.  

 

[MakMan44]

If he rattles off another mid 3 ERA season, his price tag is sure to go up. How often do those type of starters hit the market at 26? 
 
EDIT: Granted, I don't think it's going to get into unreasonable numbers but I'm just making the argument that they might be able to save some cash if they attempt to extend him now.