Sox offseason starting pitching target

[Snodgrass'Muff]

The Red Sox better stop winning because they are in danger of falling out of the bottom 10 in baseball. As long as they finish in the bottom 10 of teams, they do not have to worry about losing a draft pick if they sign a top tier free agent such as Price or Cueto...etc.. I count Philly Atlanta, MILWAUKEE, Florida, Cincinnati, Detroit as definite to finish below us. That is why I prefer watching a game like yesterday's : lots of progress by guys like JBJ, Betts and Rusney and a late loss by the bullpen.

 
At this stage in the roster turnover, I want to see them winning games. Yes, it hurts their draft position next year, but the next young core is in place and are starting to play well together. Winning is good for morale and will help them continue to take steps in the right direction. Sure, it'd be great to have a top 10 or top 5 pick. Sure, not having a protected pick might impact how much they'll be willing to offer a free agent starting pitcher (though that point has been addressed with regard to Cueto and Price). To me, it doesn't matter. The kids are playing well and are starting to win. I want them to build on that.
 
In my opinion, the best thing that could happen the rest of the way is for them to rip off a .600+ month in September and go into spring training next year feeling good about how much they improved over the course of 2015.

 

[WenZink]

 
Again, there's not NO WAY they can keep both. It's not even a sure thing that Vaz is a starting catcher or will come back healthy. There's no way of knowing that Dombrowski can't fill out the rotation with money and/or other prospects. Vaz could easily spend the first half of next season in AAA, at which point you decide whether to call him up, trade him or trade one of the others. Swihart could hit enough to be a swing catcher / DH / corner infielder. I agree that if Vaz seems healthy and is making progress, it makes a lot of sense to explore a trade, but first of all that's a big IF, and second you need a dancing partner. Three weeks ago people were saying "there's no way you can keep both JBJ and Mookie." Actually, it may turn out that even though there is a perceived surplus, the way you reap the most value is simply by playing them, because nobody is willing to pay what they're worth. We can't know for sure whether that's the case because we don't know what the Sox will be offered for JBJ or Vaz or anyone else. But we do know that DD has a pretty good track record of betting on the right guys, so if he decides to hang on to both catchers, even in the 'long run,' that's fine with me.

 
Oh for chrissakes, in prior posts in this thread I pointed out the condition Vazquez' health and the time time frame for it's recovery.
 
And, longterm, (if JBJ can prove he'll be at least a competent hitter, and Castillo proves he's accilmate) there is no way the Sox can keep 3 CFers on their team because you only have one center field, so it's a waste of talent.  
 
Let me put it this way, there's no way the Red Sox can allow redundancy and be getting the most out of their developed talent.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Oh for chrissakes, in prior posts in this thread I pointed out the condition Vazquez' health and the time time frame for it's recovery.
 
And, longterm, (if JBJ can prove he'll be at least a competent hitter, and Castillo proves he's accilmate) there is no way the Sox can keep 3 CFers on their team because you only have one center field, so it's a waste of talent.  
 
Let me put it this way, there's no way the Red Sox can allow redundancy and be getting the most out of their developed talent.

Well .. As It's looking like all three CFs will approach or exceed an .800ops I really don't see what the problem is. Playing Betts in LF is not a waste of talent. Is Alex Gordon a waste of talent in LF? Was Carl Crawford (in his prime) a waste of talent in LF?

Gee .. We have , literally a GG outfield where they all hit as well. Pity we don't have more problems like that.

 

[WenZink]

Well .. As It's looking like all three CFs will approach or exceed an .800ops I really don't see what the problem is. Playing Betts in LF is not a waste of talent. Is Alex Gordon a waste of talent in LF? Was Carl Crawford (in his prime) a waste of talent in LF?

Gee .. We have , literally a GG outfield where they all hit as well. Pity we don't have more problems like that.

 
Fewer outfielders can play CF than the corner positions  Thus a CF that has a .800 OPS is worth more to a team than a LF who has a .800 OPS.  Having two good CFers on a team, (with one playing out of position) is not the most efficient, but not nearly as bad as having 3.  And, yes, there were questions raised about the drop in Crawford's value when he was assigned to LF, before he ever took the field.
 
In reality, I haven't seen Castillo play enough in CF to tell if he's adequate, good or great, but if he is all of that, then at some point in his career he, or Betts or Bradley are worth more to another team than to the Red Sox, and that's when a trade is advisable.

 

[burstnbloom]

 
Fewer outfielders can play CF than the corner positions  Thus a CF that has a .800 OPS is worth more to a team than a LF who has a .800 OPS.  Having two good CFers on a team, (with one playing out of position) is not the most efficient, but not nearly as bad as having 3.  And, yes, there were questions raised about the drop in Crawford's value when he was assigned to LF, before he ever took the field.
 
In reality, I haven't seen Castillo play enough in CF to tell if he's adequate, good or great, but if he is all of that, then at some point in his career he, or Betts or Bradley are worth more to another team than to the Red Sox, and that's when a trade is advisable.

 
 
This is very silly.  If all three of them can hit to an .800 OPS, the Red Sox would have the best offensive OF in baseball.  Adam Jones has an .810 OPS this year.  They'd all be in the top 20 OF in baseball this year if they achieved that number.  OPS as a stat is a pretty crude measure, but the idea that a team will struggle with 3 top 20 OF by OPS is just false.  The paradigm where a CF has an .800 OPS and the two guys on the corners are over.900 is over.  

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

My desire for Price or Cueto will depend a lot on how much they get ridden like a rented mule over the rest of this season and playoffs. If we're looking for a savior, a 250 inning season doesn't bode well and we've seen that there's no adjustment period in Boston for FAs. Frankly I'd be happy with Zimmermann at a slightly lower cost, workload and a full offseason.

 

[chawson]

My desire for Price or Cueto will depend a lot on how much they get ridden like a rented mule over the rest of this season and playoffs. If we're looking for a savior, a 250 inning season doesn't bode well and we've seen that there's no adjustment period in Boston for FAs. Frankly I'd be happy with Zimmermann at a slightly lower cost, workload and a full offseason.

 
Same. Or Samardzija after a down year in front of a terrible ChiSox defense at something like 4/60 (and a sandwich pick).

 

[nothumb]

 
Oh for chrissakes, in prior posts in this thread I pointed out the condition Vazquez' health and the time time frame for it's recovery.
 
And, longterm, (if JBJ can prove he'll be at least a competent hitter, and Castillo proves he's accilmate) there is no way the Sox can keep 3 CFers on their team because you only have one center field, so it's a waste of talent.  
 
Let me put it this way, there's no way the Red Sox can allow redundancy and be getting the most out of their developed talent.

Right but I'm not just saying Vaz' health and recovery are the only factors here. I'm saying Vaz could be totally healthy and still end up as nothing more than a backup catcher. Or he could end up as the strong side of a catcher platoon with Swihart picking up ABs elsewhere. I love Vazquez but there is no guarantee of his future performance, healthy or not.
 
This isn't a video game. The fact that you have two good catchers, or three really good defensive outfielders, does not require another team to give you what you want in return in order to convert every drop of perceived surplus value into upgrades at other positions. Nor does it guarantee that you will correctly assess the true talent level of your "surplus" guys and guess right on their return. Nor does it mean that you can't use other advantages - the rest of your farm system, or your high payroll - to beat the rest of the league. It's not like you forfeit the ALCS if you have a player who produced less WAR because of how he was used... hell most teams don't deploy their talent optimally, whether it's due to deference to veterans, archaic ideas of bullpen usage, etc.
 
Nor does this myopic worldview take into account the replacement cost of the "extra" guys you want to move, particularly in the OF - while Betts or JBJ may theoretically be worth more to another team with a hole in CF, the Sox don't have another guy waiting in the wings who projects anywhere close to their combined offensive and defensive value, even at a corner spot. Also, by dealing one of them, you are also losing your primary backup in CF for tough platoon splits / injury / etc. With a Betts / JBJ / Rusney OF and Holt on the bench the Sox have incredible positional flexibility and depth.
 
There is no rule that says you have to trade away your depth in order to improve other positions, or play everyone at the top end of their potential on the defensive spectrum. I agree, explore trades that improve the team if someone wants to pay top dollar for your young talent. But you can't ignore the replacement cost, or pretend that depth, flexibility and team control are irrelevant. And if you can't capture all that value in a trade - and then some - then you don't have to do it, and you can absolutely keep all of them, and play them. 
 
Luckily I think DD understands these concepts a lot more clearly than you do, based on his track record of player acquisitions, so I feel optimistic that he will make the right choices.

 

[nighthob]

 
Fewer outfielders can play CF than the corner positions  Thus a CF that has a .800 OPS is worth more to a team than a LF who has a .800 OPS.  Having two good CFers on a team, (with one playing out of position) is not the most efficient, but not nearly as bad as having 3.  And, yes, there were questions raised about the drop in Crawford's value when he was assigned to LF, before he ever took the field.
 
In reality, I haven't seen Castillo play enough in CF to tell if he's adequate, good or great, but if he is all of that, then at some point in his career he, or Betts or Bradley are worth more to another team than to the Red Sox, and that's when a trade is advisable.

 
The realities of the post-steroid era are that .850 is the new .900. There are a dozen guys in MLB with an OPS .900 or greater this year (plus a handful of call-ups that look like they can do it as full time players). A decade ago that number was 27 full time players. So saying that an .800+ player with outstanding defense isn't good enough is sort of silly. 

 

[MikeM]

 
So, taking feedback into account: 
 
Boston
New York
Toronto
LA
SF
Houston
 
Six clubs in the hunt for four aces. Hard to tell if that's sufficient demand to send prices to the Scherzer-level stratosphere, but my sense is that it probably isn't. 
 

 
We play this same game out every winter though. Where everybody projects their low-balled figures (especially if it happens to reflect a current area of Sox need), and nobody believes the biggest fish in free agency is going to get their huge payday...until they do. 
 
Barring some unforeseen and super rare "I really want to play in this smaller market city" factor, David Price is getting Max Scherzer money. He's probably even getting a little more. So goes the modern day reality of free agency. For as many people as i see calling his name out as their pick, this attached condition really needs to make it's way into more of that speculation.
 
As far as that list goes, LA making a choice between Price/Greinke and SF swooping in to snag the other strikes me as a more probable scenario. Leaving Boston to duke it out with the others on Cueto/Zimmerman, and likely signing whichever one of the two DD prefers. 
 
With that need shored up, we are then probably left looking at the going rates on guys like Shark/Leake/Latos, and then weighing that possibility against a prospect of rolling the dice on another year of Buchholz. 

 

[OCD SS]

While Boras and Price will try and use Scherzer's contract as a benchmark, I expect most GMs are going to look at the present value of that deal rather than the $210M used as a shorthand. The Tigers and Natstown seemed to be where Boras went to get big deals at the end of the market, and I'm not sure that he can expect DD to to continue his Detroit spending under JWH without Illytch prodding him.

Overall I think too many posters here are assuming that DD coming on board indicates a drastic shift in ownership's spending philosophy that also conveniently aligns with their own wish list; but I don't think that's likely. Verlander was the poster boy for the kind of pitcher you would give an outrageous contract to, and DD was there to see just how quickly that can blow up.

So unless Cueto comes with a substantial "Pedro discount", I think a trade for someone like Carrasco is much more likely.

 

[WenZink]

 
The realities of the post-steroid era are that .850 is the new .900. There are a dozen guys in MLB with an OPS .900 or greater this year (plus a handful of call-ups that look like they can do it as full time players). A decade ago that number was 27 full time players. So saying that an .800+ player with outstanding defense isn't good enough is sort of silly. 

 
So you don't even understand what I was saying!
 
Mookie Betts or JBJ is worth less to a team playing LF for an entire season than playing CF.  Using b-ref, Betts will be a 5.0 WAR player this year.  Next year, if his OPS is exactly the same, but plays LF he'll be a 4 WAR player losing over 1.0 in dWar.  Betts is worth more to a team that needs a CF, 
 
And having a healthy Christian Vazquez play 50-60 games a year as Swihart's caddy will make him a 1.0 WAR player.  If some other team considers him to be a 3.0+ WAR player as a starter, then, again, you have the foundation for a trade that is advantageous to the Sox.

 

[Snoop Soxy Dogg]

While Boras and Price will try and use Scherzer's contract as a benchmark, I expect most GMs are going to look at the present value of that deal rather than the $210M used as a shorthand. The Tigers and Natstown seemed to be where Boras went to get big deals at the end of the market, and I'm not sure that he can expect DD to to continue his Detroit spending under JWH without Illytch prodding him.

Overall I think too many posters here are assuming that DD coming on board indicates a drastic shift in ownership's spending philosophy that also conveniently aligns with their own wish list; but I don't think that's likely. Verlander was the poster boy for the kind of pitcher you would give an outrageous contract to, and DD was there to see just how quickly that can blow up.

So unless Cueto comes with a substantial "Pedro discount", I think a trade for someone like Carrasco is much more likely.

 
David Price's agent is Bo McKinnis, not Boras. Not that that changes the substance of what you're saying. 

 

[KillerBs]

 
So you don't even understand what I was saying!
 
Mookie Betts or JBJ is worth less to a team playing LF for an entire season than playing CF.  Using b-ref, Betts will be a 5.0 WAR player this year.  Next year, if his OPS is exactly the same, but plays LF he'll be a 4 WAR player losing over 1.0 in dWar.  Betts is worth more to a team that needs a CF, 
 
And having a healthy Christian Vazquez play 50-60 games a year as Swihart's caddy will make him a 1.0 WAR player.  If some other team considers him to be a 3.0+ WAR player as a starter, then, again, you have the foundation for a trade that is advantageous to the Sox.

And if we wait a year, and all 3 of the OFers prove themselves to be good big leaguers who can play CF and Vazquez and Swihart both look like very good bets to be plus young starting catchers, this will be even more the case. In that scenario, we are really sitting in an advantageous spot, especially re moving a young starting catcher.
 
By contrast, for example, if we deal Betts on the premise that "we dont really need him cuz we have JBJ and Castillo" you are massively increasing the risk of us having a shitty starting OFer or two (including in CF) in 2016, 2017. On top of it, as noted, we may have 3 guys that look like they are ML CFers, but we also have only 3 guys who look like ML OFers, so we if we deal any of them we would need to obtain an OFer to replace him. 
 
Ultimately as always it comes down to what you could back for any of these guys. It may for instance make sense theoretically to deal Betts for Schwarber, but those are unusual type of deals. You could speculate on a Betts for deGrom or Syndegaard deal, but I would be leery about trading Betts for any young pitcher, given the injury risk inherent in pitching. Any trade of Bradley now would be a massive gamble given what we have seen over the last month. How good is he? Who knows? He might be a 600 OPS guy or 850, it is anyone's guess. So I am not averse to exploring the trade market for any of the OFers or Cs, but the notion that it would be foolish not to pull the trigger because we have a surplus there, strikes me as foolish too.   

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

 
So you don't even understand what I was saying!
 
Mookie Betts or JBJ is worth less to a team playing LF for an entire season than playing CF.  Using b-ref, Betts will be a 5.0 WAR player this year.  Next year, if his OPS is exactly the same, but plays LF he'll be a 4 WAR player losing over 1.0 in dWar.  Betts is worth more to a team that needs a CF.

 
His salary is going to be about $700k. If you think you can find a 4 WAR LFer for less than that, great. If not, you'll have to find some other way to pay for David Price. The Red Sox can afford to pay about $3.5 million / WAR. The going rate on the free agent market is twice that. 

 

[ehaz]

Overall I think too many posters here are assuming that DD coming on board indicates a drastic shift in ownership's spending philosophy that also conveniently aligns with their own wish list; but I don't think that's likely. Verlander was the poster boy for the kind of pitcher you would give an outrageous contract to, and DD was there to see just how quickly that can blow up.

So unless Cueto comes with a substantial "Pedro discount", I think a trade for someone like Carrasco is much more likely.

 
Carrasco is my pick.  Signed cheaply for the next 3 years plus options.  He's sporting a 3.53 ERA but his other indicators are awesome.  Carrasco's xFIP- ranks 5th in all of baseball - ahead of Gray, Greinke, Arrieta, Bumgarner, Scherzer, DeGrom, Cole and Felix.  Comfortably ahead of the highest ranked free agent (David Price).  
 
I'm sure the Indians know this and he'll be expensive, but with guys like Kluber/Salazar/Bauer locked up for the foreseeable future they can afford to deal him to address other positions.

 

[Rasputin]

 
So you don't even understand what I was saying!
 
Mookie Betts or JBJ is worth less to a team playing LF for an entire season than playing CF.  Using b-ref, Betts will be a 5.0 WAR player this year.  Next year, if his OPS is exactly the same, but plays LF he'll be a 4 WAR player losing over 1.0 in dWar.  Betts is worth more to a team that needs a CF, 
 
And having a healthy Christian Vazquez play 50-60 games a year as Swihart's caddy will make him a 1.0 WAR player.  If some other team considers him to be a 3.0+ WAR player as a starter, then, again, you have the foundation for a trade that is advantageous to the Sox.

 
The goal is not to maximize value. The goal is to win the world series as many times as possible before we die. 

 

[KillerBs]

 
Carrasco is my pick.  Signed cheaply for the next 3 years plus options.  He's sporting a 3.53 ERA but his other indicators are awesome.  Carrasco's xFIP- ranks 5th in all of baseball - ahead of Gray, Greinke, Arrieta, Bumgarner, Scherzer, DeGrom, Cole and Felix.  Comfortably ahead of the highest ranked free agent (David Price).  
 
I'm sure the Indians know this and he'll be expensive, but with guys like Kluber/Salazar/Bauer locked up for the foreseeable future they can afford to deal him to address other positions.

 
Yeah Carrasco would be a great addiition, but it is worth noting that he will be 29 next year, has a history of arm injuries and is on the DL now with a shoulder injury. There is only a 2 year history of this guy being a good major league starter and that's only 300 IPs. Would you deal Bradley for him straight up? Or, what would Cleveland have to give the Sox on top of Carrasco in exchange for Betts? I am thinking quite a bit.

 

[WenZink]

 
His salary is going to be about $700k. If you think you can find a 4 WAR LFer for less than that, great. If not, you'll have to find some other way to pay for David Price. The Red Sox can afford to pay about $3.5 million / WAR. The going rate on the free agent market is twice that. 

 
I don't want David Price at $200 mil/7 -- not that there's any real chance of that happening.
 
But, theortically, Betts becomes the key piece in a trade for Sonny Gray, if the A's want a CFer, or for Carlos Carrasco.  And if a trade is made, you're not spending a fortune on a 30+ year old pitcher.  (And, yes, this could only be done after being assured that JBJ and Castillo are for real.)
 
Or, once Vazquez has proven his arm to be fully recovered, instead of being a backup, you use his value as a starting catcher as a part of a trade for a young, cost-controlled pitcher. (Or if the Sox prefer Vazquez, then Swihart becomes the moving part.)
 
You are left with a hole in LF, but there are more LF candidates than there are CF's.
 
In the long term, a team has to maximize both it's dollars spent as well as it's talent pool.

 

[WenZink]

 
The goal is not to maximize value. The goal is to win the world series as many times as possible before we die. 

 
In the long run maximizing value should yield the most world championships.  
 
Last year, the Sox bypassed on giving matching the Cub's offer to Lester.  For about what it would have taken to lock up Lester, the spent $72 million to lock up Castillo, and another $72 million (including penalties) to land Moncada, Espinoza and other IFA prospects like Acosta and Raudes.  Maybe in the short run, these two categories are mutually exclusive, but in the long-run, they all come out of the same pool of money.  We may not know what the Sox budget is, over the long run, but to pretend that there are no limits is simply foolish.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Can we stop with the Sonny Gray wishcasting already?  What conceivable reason would the A's have for dealing him in the next two-ish years?  Outside of a godfather, "take your pick of anything we've got" kind of offer, I can't see Billy Beane trading away a dirt-cheap, elite, 25-year-old starting pitcher that he has four more years of control over.
 
The chances of the Red Sox going out and pulling off another Miller for Ed-Rod type deal with even more ace upside are better than Dombrowski shaking Gray loose from Oakland.

 

[WenZink]

Can we stop with the Sonny Gray wishcasting already?  What conceivable reason would the A's have for dealing him in the next two-ish years?  Outside of a godfather, "take your pick of anything we've got" kind of offer, I can't see Billy Beane trading away a dirt-cheap, elite, 25-year-old starting pitcher that he has four more years of control over.
 
The chances of the Red Sox going out and pulling off another Miller for Ed-Rod type deal with even more ace upside are better than Dombrowski shaking Gray loose from Oakland.

 
It's a lot more probable that the Sox make a successful play for Sonny Gray, then that they spend $200 mil for David Price.  At least going after a Sonny Gray is exactly in line with what the Sox have done under John Henry and what Dombrowski did with the Tigers.
 
Dave Cameron on Fangraphs rated Betts and Gray roughly equivalent in trade value, considering WAR, and years of club control.  That probably wouldn't get it done, but the Sox have redundant prospects to add to the pool.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

 
Dave Cameron on Fangraphs rated Betts and Gray roughly equivalent in trade value, considering WAR, and years of club control.  That probably wouldn't get it done, but the Sox have redundant prospects to add to the pool.

Which, if true, would mean trading Betts for Gray wouldn't improve the team, or I guess if the A's were playing him in CF and Sox in LF would improve the team by one win.

 

[Rasputin]

 
I don't want David Price at $200 mil/7 -- not that there's any real chance of that happening.
 
But, theortically, Betts becomes the key piece in a trade for Sonny Gray, if the A's want a CFer, or for Carlos Carrasco.  And if a trade is made, you're not spending a fortune on a 30+ year old pitcher.  (And, yes, this could only be done after being assured that JBJ and Castillo are for real.)
 
Or, once Vazquez has proven his arm to be fully recovered, instead of being a backup, you use his value as a starting catcher as a part of a trade for a young, cost-controlled pitcher. (Or if the Sox prefer Vazquez, then Swihart becomes the moving part.)
 
You are left with a hole in LF, but there are more LF candidates than there are CF's.
 
In the long term, a team has to maximize both it's dollars spent as well as it's talent pool.

 
Will you just stop with this, already? It's wrong. 
 
 

 
In the long run maximizing value should yield the most world championships.  
 
Last year, the Sox bypassed on giving matching the Cub's offer to Lester.  For about what it would have taken to lock up Lester, the spent $72 million to lock up Castillo, and another $72 million (including penalties) to land Moncada, Espinoza and other IFA prospects like Acosta and Raudes.  Maybe in the short run, these two categories are mutually exclusive, but in the long-run, they all come out of the same pool of money.  We may not know what the Sox budget is, over the long run, but to pretend that there are no limits is simply foolish.

 
As is this.
 
Of course there's a limit. Of course we don't know what it is. And of course we don't know that it's fixed--and we'd be better off assuming it's not.
 
That doesn't mean prioritizing optimizing value ahead of getting the most talent is going to result in the most championships. It just doesn't even remotely come close. Optimizing the talent on the team when you're in a position to contend is going to result in the most championships. 
 
This team is in a much better position talent-wise to make a big investment than it was last year. Last year we had a ton of questions that have largely been answered positively this year. Is Betts for real? Yes he is. Are Castillo and Bradley competent major league outfielders? Sure as hell looks like they're a lot better than competent. What about Bogaerts? Is he ever going to hit up to his potential and will he be able to stay at short? Oh hell fucking yes. 
 
The only question we had going into last off season that we haven't had a positive answer to is Christian Vazquez' offense and oh, hey, Blake Motherfucking Swihart.
 
What we have, in house, is an outstanding lineup. It's top three now after a horrendous start to the season. If we get anything resembling decent health, we'll be in the top two next season.
 
With excellent defense in the outfield. Good or better defense at least at short, second, and catcher, and probably at third too. 
 
We've got great depth of pitching in the rotation. Last year we were hoping Eduardo Rodirguez was real. I feel pretty confident now saying he is. We've seen five starts from Henry Owens at the major league level and in the one game where he allowed more than three runs, he was victimized by horrific defense by a guy who isn't going to be in the outfield anymore. 
 
We're missing the guy at the top of the rotation at a time when there's more quality FA starting pitching than pretty much ever.
 
We have an astonishing amount of under 25 talent on the big club AND the best minor league system in the game. Now is not a time to be maximizing value. Now is the time to be maximizing talent.
 
Signing a big FA starter might well be a mess four years from now. That's fine. Four years from now, this rotation might be anchored by Eduardo Rodriguez with big contributions by Henry Owens and Michael Kopech.
 
We've been talking about the great system for so long and it's here now, and for the most part, it's acclimated to the majors. Now is not the time to piss and moan about value. Now is the time to put the best team on the field that you can. Now is the time to stretch the budget. Now is the time to put the goddamn pedal to the goddamn metal and win some fucking championships.

 

[WenZink]

Which, if true, would mean trading Betts for Gray wouldn't improve the team, or I guess if the A's were playing him in CF and Sox in LF would improve the team by one win.

 
So why are any trades ever made then?  The Sox need someone at the top of the rotation.  They want someone young enough to be in his prime over the next few years.  They have 3 OFs that can play CF,with Benintendi and Margot in the queue.  OR, they can do something they've NEVER done, and DD can do something he's never done, and give a 7 year contract over a $100 million to a 30+  year old FA.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

 
It's a lot more probable that the Sox make a successful play for Sonny Gray, then that they spend $200 mil for David Price.  At least going after a Sonny Gray is exactly in line with what the Sox have done under John Henry and what Dombrowski did with the Tigers.
 
Dave Cameron on Fangraphs rated Betts and Gray roughly equivalent in trade value, considering WAR, and years of club control.  That probably wouldn't get it done, but the Sox have redundant prospects to add to the pool.

 
If it wouldn't get it done then the deal will hurt them overall. Having excess prospect depth does not mean that giving up more value in a trade is less damaging overall. If they can swap Betts for Gray straight up, they should absolutely consider it. If it will require significantly more (and it probably will) they don't improve the organization by pulling the trigger.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Maybe if we all keep posting about Gray then Billy Beane will actually trade him! 

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Maybe if we all keep posting about Gray then Billy Beane will actually trade him! 

 
Heh, yep. That's pretty much what's happening here. He's the new Giancarlo Stanton. The A's have no reason to move him unless they are blown away by an offer. And pointing to Donaldson isn't really illustrative of anything beyond Donaldson developing a problem with management. Until something like that happens, no one is getting Gray for fair value.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

 
So why are any trades ever made then?

Teams have vastly different projections for a set of players and both think they win the trade; or teams have legitimate surplus at a position with nowhere else to put somebody; or teams can no longer afford a player; or teams have different time horizons for competing. Swapping two players of similar value being paid approximately the same under similar lengths of team control doesn't seem to serve much purpose.

 

[WenZink]

 
...[snip]
That doesn't mean prioritizing optimizing value ahead of getting the most talent is going to result in the most championships. It just doesn't even remotely come close. Optimizing the talent on the team when you're in a position to contend is going to result in the most championships. 
 
...[snip

 
You're wrong.  You're letting the excitement of a 15-12 month of August (after 4 months of total dysfunction) distort your view of this team.
 
They have a 40 year old DH, they have a Hanley-experiment as their best 1st base solution.  They have a bullpen with a 40 year old closer and not much else.  They have 6-7 starting pitcher candidates for 2016, but the only pitcher's 2016 performance I can safely predict is that of Wade Miley.
 
Bringing in a David Price with no bullpen is a waste, especially with  both the Red Sox and DD having shown they have no idea on how to build one on the fly.
 
If, in the Spring of 2016. this wretched pitching staff turns it around, then they can always go for a rent a pitcher for the stretch run and the playoffs.  David Price, alone, is just spending money.

 

[Rasputin]

 
You're wrong.  You're letting the excitement of a 15-12 month of August (after 4 months of total dysfunction) distort your view of this team.
 
They have a 40 year old DH, they have a Hanley-experiment as their best 1st base solution.  They have a bullpen with a 40 year old closer and not much else.  They have 6-7 starting pitcher candidates for 2016, but the only pitcher's 2016 performance I can safely predict is that of Wade Miley.
 
Bringing in a David Price with no bullpen is a waste, especially with  both the Red Sox and DD having shown they have no idea on how to build one on the fly.
 
If, in the Spring of 2016. this wretched pitching staff turns it around, then they can always go for a rent a pitcher for the stretch run and the playoffs.  David Price, alone, is just spending money.

 
Yeah, you're right, they're totally not going to do anything about the bullpen this winter, Travis Shaw and Sam Travis can't possibly back up first base, Hanley Ramirez couldn't possibly DH, and the same resources you're looking to spend on a mid season pitcher upgrade couldn't possibly be spent on a mid season upgrade at first or DH.

 

[OCD SS]

 
David Price's agent is Bo McKinnis, not Boras. Not that that changes the substance of what you're saying. 

Mea culpa. I should've double checked, but he really seems like the paradigm of a Boras client.

 

[MikeM]

Mea culpa. I should've double checked, but he really seems like the paradigm of a Boras client.

 
In a winter that is projecting to see the deepest starting pitching class ever (or at least that i can recall), he actually does not represent any of the more noteworthy names on the board. 
 
There is still time for somebody to pick him up though i guess. 

 

[swingin val]

Swapping two players of similar value being paid approximately the same under similar lengths of team control doesn't seem to serve much purpose.

When they play two completely different positions, of course it serves a purpose. Teams covet different assets depending on the strength or weakness they currently exhibit.

 

[ArgentinaSOXfan]

Another meh outing for Cueto, against the Tigers:
6 IP
9 H
4 ER
0 BB
2 K

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

When they play two completely different positions, of course it serves a purpose. Teams covet different assets depending on the strength or weakness they currently exhibit.

Thank your for rephrasing the part of my post you didn't quote

 

[geoduck no quahog]

With Porcello looking like he's solved the issues, the team is in great shape for next year without making many changes.

Ace
Porcello
Buccholz
Rodriguez
Kelly

I like Miley in the pen and on call as a replacement. Kelly has a higher ceiling and Miley gets early outs and allows no steals.

Put some of the other kids in the pen along with a couple from this season.

Make trades in June or July if you need to.

 

[NDame616]

With Porcello looking like he's solved the issues, the team is in great shape for next year without making many changes.

Ace
Porcello
Buccholz
Rodriguez
Kelly

I like Miley in the pen and on call as a replacement. Kelly has a higher ceiling and Miley gets early outs and allows no steals.

Put some of the other kids in the pen along with a couple from this season.

Make trades in June or July if you need to.

Taking your spelling of Buchholz out of the post....

Miley is known for being a horse who will take the ball 30+ times a year and pitch 200 innings. That is where his value is. Moving him to the pen makes as much sense as moving Koji to the rotation.

 

[nothumb]

 
So you don't even understand what I was saying!
 
Mookie Betts or JBJ is worth less to a team playing LF for an entire season than playing CF.  Using b-ref, Betts will be a 5.0 WAR player this year.  Next year, if his OPS is exactly the same, but plays LF he'll be a 4 WAR player losing over 1.0 in dWar.  Betts is worth more to a team that needs a CF, 
 
And having a healthy Christian Vazquez play 50-60 games a year as Swihart's caddy will make him a 1.0 WAR player.  If some other team considers him to be a 3.0+ WAR player as a starter, then, again, you have the foundation for a trade that is advantageous to the Sox.

 
And if we trade Betts, right now all we have in LF is a $22M, -2 WAR player in Hanley Ramirez. Presumably you aren't trading Betts for a 4 win left fielder AND an upgrade to the rotation. This has been explained to you so many times but you just keep ignoring it and cherry picking responses.
 
Having a 4 win left fielder making under a million bucks is so fucking low on our list of problems.

 

[Pilgrim]

It also seems like a weird misunderstanding of defensive stats.  If you move a CF to LF, their defensive ability should scale accordingly.  Personally, one of the big revelations of a stat like WAR is just how awesome playing an adept CF at one of the corners is.  You don't really "lose" anything by moving a 5 win CF to left.  This isn't even in the same universe as being a problem.

 

[Lowrielicious]

 
So why are any trades ever made then?  The Sox need someone at the top of the rotation.  They want someone young enough to be in his prime over the next few years.  They have 3 OFs that can play CF,with Benintendi and Margot in the queue.  OR, they can do something they've NEVER done, and DD can do something he's never done, and give a 7 year contract over a $100 million to a 30+  year old FA.

 
While technically correct it is semantics only. He essentially signed Verlander to a 7 year, $180 Million contract at age 30 in 2013. He just did it when he was 2 years away from free agency. Given he was already locked in for two years I'd say it is more equivalent to a $220 million dollar deal to a free agent.

 

[WenZink]

 
Yeah, you're right, they're totally not going to do anything about the bullpen this winter, Travis Shaw and Sam Travis can't possibly back up first base, Hanley Ramirez couldn't possibly DH, and the same resources you're looking to spend on a mid season pitcher upgrade couldn't possibly be spent on a mid season upgrade at first or DH.

 
Geez, why didn't I think of that -- the Red Sox can spend the winter building a bullpen, like they tried to last winter, but this time it will be easier because Dombrowski has Fernando Rodney's cell phone no.
 
Bringing in David Price onto this pitching staff is like putting a tuxedo on a bum, without giving him a haircut, shave and a shower.  Try to fix the pen first, see what you have in mid-season, and then bring in an Ace.  There's too much uncertainty in projecting relievers from year to year.
 
And Travis Shaw is 3 for his last 40, so perhaps we wait until the end of the season before we consider him an MLB backup.  Sam Travis has 60 games at AA.

 

[WenZink]

It also seems like a weird misunderstanding of defensive stats.  If you move a CF to LF, their defensive ability should scale accordingly.  Personally, one of the big revelations of a stat like WAR is just how awesome playing an adept CF at one of the corners is.  You don't really "lose" anything by moving a 5 win CF to left.  This isn't even in the same universe as being a problem.

 
Not so weird.  Top CFers will generally have more dWAR that than the best LFers.  I assume it's because the more plays and area that a CF has as his responsibility, the more chances he has to excel and separate himself from the pack.  And, to use a stat that isn't positionally adjusted, if you look at the b-ref Total Zone Runs, you'll see that the CFers are the leaders in that category.
 
Putting Betts or JBJ in left field, particulary in Fenway, minimizes the advantage of their speed and ball tracking. A CFer will make 25% more plays than a corner outfielder, in Fenway, it's even more than that, I suspect, vs LFer, not as much compared to the RFer.  JBJ is probably as good as anyone in the game -- maybe Kiermaier is better.  Castillo has the arm, and the range for RF in Fenway.  Betts will be a great LFer, I suspect, but he'll be under-utilized.

 

[Darnell's Son]

abs takes inventory of the rotation and tries to figure out what Dombrowski should do with the rotation today on .com.

 
The Sox started the season touting their, “Ace! We don’t need no stinkin’ ace!” strategy, but the inconsistency of the starters, the ineptitude of the pen overall and the lack of offense doomed that strategy to failure. It hasn’t been until recently that the majority of the starters and the offense have been living up to expectations. Dollar late…

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

 
Geez, why didn't I think of that -- the Red Sox can spend the winter building a bullpen, like they tried to last winter, but this time it will be easier because Dombrowski has Fernando Rodney's cell phone no.
 
Bringing in David Price onto this pitching staff is like putting a tuxedo on a bum, without giving him a haircut, shave and a shower.  Try to fix the pen first, see what you have in mid-season, and then bring in an Ace.  There's too much uncertainty in projecting relievers from year to year.
 
And Travis Shaw is 3 for his last 40, so perhaps we wait until the end of the season before we consider him an MLB backup.  Sam Travis has 60 games at AA.

Uh, I dunno, why didn't you think of that? 
 
Teams pretty much have to build a bullpen every offseason. Obviously, the Red Sox attempt to build a quality bullpen in the 2014-2015 offseason sucked, as did every other aspect of our offseason. So, we're going to have to do better at that.
 
Saying we should "fix the pen first" is just kind of arbitrary and stupid. There is no conflict between the need to have an ace in the rotation and add depth to the bullpen. In fact, doing one will help the other, as added SP depth can spill over into the bullpen - starting Henry Owens out in the pen, for example, probably makes a lot of sense. We need to do both things, at the same time. 

 

[Drek717]

 

 
Geez, why didn't I think of that -- the Red Sox can spend the winter building a bullpen, like they tried to last winter, but this time it will be easier because Dombrowski has Fernando Rodney's cell phone no.
 
Bringing in David Price onto this pitching staff is like putting a tuxedo on a bum, without giving him a haircut, shave and a shower.  Try to fix the pen first, see what you have in mid-season, and then bring in an Ace.  There's too much uncertainty in projecting relievers from year to year.
 
And Travis Shaw is 3 for his last 40, so perhaps we wait until the end of the season before we consider him an MLB backup.  Sam Travis has 60 games at AA.

1. last I checked you can't get aces mid-season for cash.  They also cost a premium when acquired mid-season, as the demand typically greatly outstrips the supply and compensatory picks add a little extra weight to the scale.  Add that this off-season has a unique inventory of quality starters including arguably three aces (Price, Cueto, Zimmermann, most likely Greinke) and a strong second tier (Latos, Leake, Samardzija, Iwakuma, Fister, Kazmir, etc.).  That not only makes for worthwhile FA shopping, it also will result in teams being more willing to shop younger mid-tier guys to address other needs.  If ever there was a market to upgrade the front end of the rotation, this is it.
 
2. Other than one late inning guy building a bullpen is equal parts insightful acquisitions and luck.  Just throwing money at it isn't going to solve it.  Also, in the off-season even very good bullpen arms get traded for a relatively low price when they're in their last arbitration years.  That is where the Red Sox should be looking to net another late inning guy, add a few people to the competition for the rest of the 'pen, and hope to have picked the right horses.
 
3. If Travis Shaw didn't have a 3 for 40 stretches he'd look like a guy who belongs in the starting lineup.  Short of his approach somehow falling apart he's already shown that he is a solid backup corner IF option for a team willing to experiment with Hanley at 1B.  Especially when they'll be able to stash Craig off the LT again in AAA if they see fit and have Sam Travis moving up through the ranks.  That is more than adequate 1B depth.

 

[WenZink]

Uh, I dunno, why didn't you think of that? 
 
Teams pretty much have to build a bullpen every offseason. Obviously, the Red Sox attempt to build a quality bullpen in the 2014-2015 offseason sucked, as did every other aspect of our offseason. So, we're going to have to do better at that.
 
Saying we should "fix the pen first" is just kind of arbitrary and stupid. There is no conflict between the need to have an ace in the rotation and add depth to the bullpen. In fact, doing one will help the other, as added SP depth can spill over into the bullpen - starting Henry Owens out in the pen, for example, probably makes a lot of sense. We need to do both things, at the same time. 

 
So do the Yankees have to build a bullpen this offseason?  Do the Royals?  The Astros?  So I guess the problem with the Sox FO last year is that they didn't care enough about a bullpen?  Did Dave Dombrowski not care enough when he was with the Tigers?
 
The Red Sox have to construct almost a complete pen, with the closest to a sure thing being a 40 year old closer with a cast on his wrist.  And to further complicate the task, they have no pitcher in their organization that looks to be a reliable member of the pen.  Noe Ramirez, Aro, Barnes?  They've tried converting hard throwers Pat Light and Simon Mercedes to relievers, but both walk a ton.
 
The best way to build a pen with a high degree of confidence is to spend money -- lots of it.  The White Sox appear to be suffering from buyer's remorse over David Robertson and might be willing to move him and the remaining $36 million of his contract, but you'll have to give up prospects to do it, and if you take on that kind of salary it will reduce your available money for other spots on the team.  But, given Koji's age, they just might have to spend there money on a stud.
 
Or the Sox will do what most teams do when, they've been unable to develop their own pool of reliever-candidates:  They'll round up the usual suspects, hope for a turnaround year from a couple of journeymen, that Ryan Cook gets back to his form with the A's a couple of years ago, and hope that one or two of the pitchers in the system turns the corner.
 
It's not like you can instantly spot the next Darren Oliver - a washed up lefty starter who suddenly becomes a top long-man in his late 30s.

 

[Drek717]

 
So do the Yankees have to build a bullpen this offseason?  Do the Royals?  The Astros?  So I guess the problem with the Sox FO last year is that they didn't care enough about a bullpen?  Did Dave Dombrowski not care enough when he was with the Tigers?
 
The Red Sox have to construct almost a complete pen, with the closest to a sure thing being a 40 year old close with a cast on his wrist.  And to further complicate the task, they have no pitcher in their organization that looks to be a reliable member of the pen.  Noe Ramirez, Aro, Barnes?  They've tried converting hard throwers Pat Light and Simon Mercedes to relievers, but both walk a ton.
 
The best way to build a pen with a high degree of confidence is to spend money -- lots of it.  The White Sox appear to be suffering from buyer's remorse over David Robertson and might be willing to move him and the remaining $36 million of his contract, but you'll have to give up prospects to do it, and if you take on that kind of salary it will reduce your available money for other spots on the team.  But, given Koji's age, they just might have to spend there money on a stud.
 
Or the Sox will do what most teams do when, they've been unable to develop their own pool of reliever-candidates:  They'll round up the usual suspects, hope for a turnaround year from a couple of journeymen, that Ryan Cook gets back to his form with the A's a couple of years ago, and hope that one or two of the pitchers in the system turns the corner.
 
It's not like you can instantly spot the next Darren Oliver - a washed up lefty starter who suddenly becomes a top long-man in his late 30s.

I don't know, Dave Dombrowski seemed to have spotted something in that Alex Wilson kid the Tigers picked up out of nowhere last winter.  Maybe we should acquire guys like that?
 
Others:
Why take David Robertson's contract and pay him $36M when Tyler Clippard among others are free agents who only cost money?  I mean, if they're spending money why spend prospects too?  That seems real dumb.
 
Teams spend money on bullpen arms who go bust every season.  The best, most consistent relievers are guys in their late 20's with multiple seasons of ML success under their belt.  Guys who are in the later stages of arbitration so they're starting to get some real money but still not market rate.  Tyler Clippard (to use the same player as an example twice in one post) was traded last winter for Yunel Escobar who was owed another $13M and hadn't posted an OPS+ over the mid-90's in three years at that point (and who was acquired as a throw in on the Zobrist deal between Oakland and Tampa Bay just four days prior).  During the winter you can get some pretty good arb. years bullpen arms for pretty reasonable prices in terms of trade value.  
 
I'd imagine Dombrowski will feel out all those options to get another late innings guy, then go hunting for his "value" pieces to fill out the 'pen.  The big difference is that he's traditionally only grabbed one or two veteran rehabs but built the majority of his 'pen by finding undervalued mid to late 20's guys who haven't been on the map yet largely due to a lack of opportunity.
 
Basically, instead of pounding our heads against the wall with the Craig Breslows of the world we let our Alex Wilsons throw more innings.

 

[WenZink]

...[snip[

 
3. If Travis Shaw didn't have a 3 for 40 stretches he'd look like a guy who belongs in the starting lineup.  Short of his approach somehow falling apart he's already shown that he is a solid backup corner IF option for a team willing to experiment with Hanley at 1B.  Especially when they'll be able to stash Craig off the LT again in AAA if they see fit and have Sam Travis moving up through the ranks.  That is more than adequate 1B depth.

 

 
There's no sense debating further, the fantasy that the Sox will sign Price or another expensive FA starter, so I'll just address the point about Shaw.
 
I said in my post that we have to see what Shaw does over the last month of the season.  If he fails to hit, then, in spite of his hot stretch earlier in the month, he's not going to have a spot on the 25 man roster.  He's probably just earned a seat on the I-95 shuttle from Pawtucket to Boston.  But saying that Hanley, Shaw, Craig and Sam Travs is more than adequate 1st base depth is just not based on facts.  Unless Hanley shows real aptitude at 1st in his workouts, they Sox are probably going to have to find a 1st baseman on a 1 or 2 year deal.  (If Hanley busts again, maybe the eat some salary and take on another contract of an aging 1st baseman.)  In the most optimistic scenario, Sam Travis is a late call-up a year from now.
 
In general, there's just too much over-reaction to one good month of baseball with one great month of performances by the young players.  Add to that the addition of DD, and fans seem to think that the Sox are in a position to go all in for 2016.  I don't think JBJ is going to be a top MLB hitter, going forward, but I am convinced he's going to be at least a ..250, .700 OPS hitter that will more than justify his being the Sox full time CF for the next 5 years.  I like what I see in the bats of Bogaerts and Betts, and I think, over the next 3 years, they will add more walks and XBH to their hitting, but it's not going to happen next year.  It will be a gradual process.

 

[tomdeplonty]

EDIT nm same point made better up thread