@brianmacp: Red Sox announce two-year contract extension with Koji Uehara, avoiding having to make a decision on the qualifying offer.
Sox re-sign Koji
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Yeah. I'm glad that he is back, and I'm sure he still has some serious skills, but that is a ton of money for a reliever who broke down at the end of the season. I mean, I guess if we plan to use him only for one inning, only in save situations...
Value is fair for a big market team. He wasn't going to get a QO and probably would have gotten 20-24 million in FA. Good signing.
Fair deal. Back in June many of us thought he'd get the qualifying offer, so his tired arm down the stretch probably saved us some money at least in 2015. Now BC can turn his attention to the big fish.
What is the QO amount this year? I've tried to google it and I am only getting a figure for 2012-13, which was 13.3... I am guessing that it would be 14m+ this year. So it looks like Koji gave the Sox a pretty sweet deal on that 2nd year.
The financial risk is minor, and the best part is that Koji does not seem like the kind of guy who'll create a clubhouse problem if they decide to change his role. So more upside than downside here.
Now go get Miller.
Now go get Miller.
I'm OK with this. The late-season fall off in performance is a concern but he seems like a guy who will work his tail off to get to where he thinks he should be.
Happy to have him back at slightly more than the '15 QO for two years. He was mostly '13 Koji for '14 Win, win I hope.
I wholeheartedly agree with everyone saying go get Miller, but I think his price tag is going to be staggering compared to this deal.
I like it. My guess is that if they are careful with him that he's got at least one quality season in him. Pretty low risk wager.
If Miller gets market value he's going to get closer money. 6-9 mil a year probably.Laser Show said:
He won't be a problem if he needs to be a 7th/8th inning guy. He told Farrell he wanted to move out of the closer's role this season once he really started to struggle.
At worst I see him as a 3.50 era kind of reliever. And of course that would be an expensive contract for such a guy. But I think that's the worst case scenario. I don't think we'll see 0.90 era kind of numbers. Probably something in the low 2's. Which would make him really, really good.
Plus, it's Koji.
At worst I see him as a 3.50 era kind of reliever. And of course that would be an expensive contract for such a guy. But I think that's the worst case scenario. I don't think we'll see 0.90 era kind of numbers. Probably something in the low 2's. Which would make him really, really good.
Plus, it's Koji.
glennhoffmania said:
Look at it this way -- it's basically $1 million for everyone he's walked in his 138.2 innings as a Red Sox, and an extra million for luck.
I'm not sure how accurate the numbers in this link are -- maybe someone has a better link for 2013 free agent reliever contracts. http://espn.go.com/mlb/freeagents/_/position/rp But just looking at this, the reality is that free agent relievers seem to cost a bit more lately than most of us are accustomed to, with some very uneven results. 38-year old Joe Nathan went for 2/20 last year. Joaquin Benoit was 2/15.5. Brian Wilson was 2/19.5. Boone Logan went for 3/16.5. And only one of them was really any good.
For better or worse, this is the market, and there are no guarantees in the free agent reliever market. So, either we think the Sox will find the diamond in the rough, or they will have to give up some assets to find a more cost-controlled player. (Even Joel Hanrahan -- a supposedly cost controlled player -- ended up at over $7 million to avoid arbitration and the Sox had to give up assets to get him.) With the uncertainty that attends this market, I'm good with going with the known quantity, who is comfortable here, and who, even when he regressed, still only walks a guy every 8 to 10 innings.
This is definitely an overpay. My worry is more about the years than the money. I'd probably have preferred 15 million for this year with no obligation for 2016, but eating 9 million on a guy who is rehabbing a blown shoulder isn't going to cripple the 2016 club, so I'm left more happy that we get more Koji in Boston than worried we'll be paying 9 million for a middle reliever or worse in two years.
Love Koji, but I'm a little worried he may be cooked.
I still think we need another back of the bullpen arm or two to supplement him and Tazawa. Both saw a bit too much action in '14.
I still think we need another back of the bullpen arm or two to supplement him and Tazawa. Both saw a bit too much action in '14.
ivanvamp said:
I'm not sure that's how it will work with Koji. Either his splitter is effective or it isn't. If it is, he gets to play rock, paper, scissors with batters and beat them all day long. If it's not, it turns into the slowest, straightest fastball known to man and he starts giving up 10 ER over 4 2/3. The saving grace is that if he turns into the latter permanently, I don't think anybody would be shocked if he retired outright.
Fair deal.
The AGE obsession on this site is deafening, its really getting OLD. Players bodies age at different levels according to fitness, genetics, size. weight, diet, usage, role etc.
Just stating a guys age and using that to estimate a players future performance, in a linear fashion, is weak sauce.
The AGE obsession on this site is deafening, its really getting OLD. Players bodies age at different levels according to fitness, genetics, size. weight, diet, usage, role etc.
Just stating a guys age and using that to estimate a players future performance, in a linear fashion, is weak sauce.
benhogan said:
It's not an obsession. 40 is really fucking old for a baseball player. The amount of players who have maintained their level of excellence into their 40's without the aid of chemicals banned by the sport is very small. Koji would have to be the exception, and that means those forecasting that he is likely to be the exception need to provide some exceptional evidence. Add in the fact that he looked absolutely cooked down the stretch this past season and I'm not buying what you're selling here.
Seems that this deal precludes the Sox signing Miller. Miller will want to be a closer next year and get closer money. He's going to get a big contract. If Koji is OK with being an expensive set-up man then this could work if the Sox are willing to spend all this money on who is pitching the 8th and 9th innings next year.bankshot1 said:
Makes sense for both sides. If he pitches well and the Sox are competitive next year, awesome. If they're not competetitve then they trade him. If he's bad then he gets demoted out of the closer's role and pitches fewer innings. If he gets hurt badly then they replace him with a guy from Pawtucket and maybe he retires before the second year kicks in. Plenty of upside to this deal. Even the downside is only that he doesn't pitch an inning and they wasted $9M. $9M is nothing to the Red Sox.
Its not just Koji. Its Panda vs Headley. Its Lester. Its Hamels, etcSnodgrass'Muff said:
We all know these players ages, all of baseball knows their ages, if you can't say anything other then their age and regression then stop.
Its getting repetitive.
Completely agree with this comment. And the lack of Uppers/Speed is also not helping the older player. Its obvious, everyone that reads a site like this knows that.MakMan44 said:
Think we need to dig a bit deeper on future performance.
benhogan said:
So, which Big Birthday did we just have? 30? 40? Having some adjustment issues, are we? :c070:
I mean, seriously, it's not the only factor but it is a factor, so if you're ignoring it, you're missing something. Of course aging happens differently for each individual, so factoring it into projections is inherently a rough, actuarial thing. But it's not like something people are making up. Saying "stop" just because for some reason it irritates you is--what was the phrase you used?--weak sauce.
I think this deal is a good one even acknowleding the possibility that he isn't very good anymore. The upside is great and the cost isn't hamstringing if he is not.
It's smart of Cherington to wrap this up right away and then attend to other matters. Maybe it won't turn out to be a perfectly efficient use of financial resources, but so what? They're going to get way more than their money's worth out of Bogaerts, Betts, Vasquez, and Pedroia. They can lavish a little on the guy who pitched them to a title last year.
Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
There's significant risk either way. I'd rather just avoid the version of spending that money that spans two seasons instead of one.
Edit: I will say that this is reminiscent of the Johnny Gomes deal. Overpay to get it done really early so you don't have to worry about it and can focus on more pressing needs.
MakMan44 said:
Actually it seems to me that given the fact we've just committed to an aging closer (sorry, ben) who probably needs a bit of babying as far as workload, and we have a couple of good-but-not-great RH short relief guys plus a AAAA LOOGY, a dominating LH reliever who's capable of closing and is being paid like a closer, but isn't the nominal closer, is a pretty letter-perfect fit.
EDIT: To clarify--more agreeing than arguing with MakMan here.
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