I *think* Elias has one option remaining. So he slots into our SP depth, and Carson makes the bullpen pretty sick. I like it.
He indeed has one option remaining.If Elias does have an option--and it looks like he does--then the deal makes sense.
The real deal is availbale--the Reds did not pick up his option, so Burke is a FA.I was hoping we could add a Burke Badenhop type. This is a rich man's Burke Badenhop. I'm psyched.
I think Kelly's bounceback after his Pawtucket stint earned him a crack at this rotation, and it would have been hasty to give up on him as a starter. He was absolutely frustrating to watch pitch at times last season, but there's reason for optimism with him and there wasn't much to go on as to how Kelly would perform as a reliever, it could have been a disaster.Does this slot Kelly into the rotation? I can't watch that guy pitch. I also hated watching our pen pitch. I guess I generally hated watching our pitchers do most anything.
If Kelly's late season revival was for real, he's Matsuzaka circa 2008. He walked a *lot* of dudes and stranded them on base. I like his chances to be better than the 6 ERA guy he was in the first half, but it's a high-wire act.The benefit of having a lot of OK starters is that we're swapping in an OK Joe Kelly for an OK Miley, there's a shot that there is no dropoff there if what we saw from Kelly late last season was real.
Are you forgetting about Layne? He's death to LHH.I'd still like a better lefty than Ross, but other than that, I'm pretty much good with the offseason. We got another good bullpen arm without really sacrificing starting pitching depth.
We're going to need a couple of people to fill those shoes.Times like this is when I miss Eric Van. By now he'd have atleast eight pages on why Elias is the absolutely the next Clayton Kershaw
Yeah I don't know why they couldn't have landed Miley for just Smith. And even that is robbing Peter to pay Paul, considering how bad their bullpen was last year.I don't understand what the Mariners are thinking here at all. 5 years of team control of Carson Smith is worth what? More than four years of Darren O'Day, I would think, and people think he's going to get 4/$36 to pitch until he turns 36. And you're giving him up for what. 3 years of Wade Miley being more average? Who of course you do have to pay for and is only somewhat below market, so you're adding payroll in the deal.
If you're a team with the resources of the Mariners you have to bet on your ability to get to average with low-cost guys like Elias. If you have to go out and spend important assets to get average, you're screwed.
Hm, OK then. But he went from 48 to 70 appearances, so there are plenty of reasons why he might have fallen off late. Might need to be managed better, but the Sox shouldn't need to lean on him so heavily.Tim Britton @TimBritton 11m11 minutes ago
If you're wondering why M's would move Smith, velo was down later in the season, and you might worry about production if it doesn't return.
Just to be a buzzkill...
Maybe it was. But in Sep/Oct he allowed no runs in 12.2 innings, with 20 Ks and 3 walks.Tim Britton @TimBritton 11m11 minutes ago
If you're wondering why M's would move Smith, velo was down later in the season, and you might worry about production if it doesn't return.
Just to be a buzzkill...
He didn't give up a run in 12 September appearances, totaling 12 2/3 innings. He had a rough July, and his ERA in Aug. was 3.86, but I don't see a trend where he struggled late due to loss of velocity.Tim Britton @TimBritton 11m11 minutes ago
If you're wondering why M's would move Smith, velo was down later in the season, and you might worry about production if it doesn't return.
Just to be a buzzkill...
September stats for Carson Smith:Tim Britton @TimBritton 11m11 minutes ago
If you're wondering why M's would move Smith, velo was down later in the season, and you might worry about production if it doesn't return.
Just to be a buzzkill...
Carson Smith got four outs for his 22nd hold before Tom Wilhelmsen blew a save Saturday against the A's.Tim Britton @TimBritton 11m11 minutes ago
If you're wondering why M's would move Smith, velo was down later in the season, and you might worry about production if it doesn't return.
Just to be a buzzkill...
Impressive if true.Tim Britton @TimBritton 2m2 minutes ago
RELIEVERS WITH A HIGHER fWAR THAN CARSON SMITH, 2015 Cody Allen Aroldis Chapman Dellin Betances That's the list.
4 retweets3 likes
Works for me. I was a little bummed about this deal at first (I like Miley a lot for some reason), but I'm coming all the way around.September stats for Carson Smith:
11.1 IP 8 hits 0 runs 2 walks 19Ks
Resume celebration.
Great point on #3. Even more fired up for this trade after thinking about that.This deal makes so much sense on multiple levels and I don't believe DD is nearly done.
1. Miley's value is greatly tied to being a quality "Innings Eater" who saves our bullpen which isn't as valuable to us as it was pre-David Price. Still valuable.....but not nearly as much.
2. We have multiple backend starters available to provide similar production as Miley during regular season....some even come with a higher upside.
3. Miley's post-season role could be minimal or none at all while Smith's has the potential to be crucial.
4. We invested $30m in Price.....knocking around $7m off the payroll each of the next two seasons "isn't nothing" when constructing a roster with a somewhat reasonable budget. Having replacements available in house allow this to occur.
5. It allows us to even move Uehara if we need to reduce payroll further or as a part of the Hanley elimination.
No, I'm nott forgetting about Layne, he's the lefty I trust. It's Ross and Escobar and the like that I'd like to have more confidence in.Are you forgetting about Layne? He's death to LHH.
I'm legit excited to watch this bullpen.
Do you think he's making it up? Or are you too lazy to Google "Fangraphs" and click on the leaderboard?Impressive if true.
His worst month would have made him the best pitcher in our 2015 pen, right?He didn't give up a run in 12 September appearances, totaling 12 2/3 innings. He had a rough July, and his ERA in Aug. was 3.86, but I don't see a trend where he struggled late due to loss of velocity.
He made 60 appearances in 2012 across two levels...thanks for playing Pete.Pete Abraham @PeteAbe 11m11 minutes ago
How Smith is able to bounce back from 70 appearances after previous high of 49 (in ’12) will determine if this trade works
Just a way of...anyway. Chill.Do you think he's making it up? Or are you too lazy to Google "Fangraphs" and click on the leaderboard?
If they option Elias he also would not count against the luxury tax I believe (same situation as Craig), so the true savings to the team is greater than the $7 million because of the 50% tax savings on Elias.This deal makes so much sense on multiple levels and I don't believe DD is nearly done.
1. Miley's value is greatly tied to being a quality "Innings Eater" who saves our bullpen which isn't as valuable to us as it was pre-David Price. Still valuable.....but not nearly as much.
2. We have multiple backend starters available to provide similar production as Miley during regular season....some even come with a higher upside.
3. Miley's post-season role could be minimal or none at all while Smith's has the potential to be crucial.
4. We invested $30m in Price.....knocking around $7m off the payroll each of the next two seasons "isn't nothing" when constructing a roster with a somewhat reasonable budget. Having replacements available in house allow this to occur.
5. It allows us to even move Uehara if we need to reduce payroll further or as a part of the Hanley elimination.
I suggest you put more effort into posting and quit treating this like a chat room.Just a way of...anyway. Chill.