This is absolutely the case, and it's no different for local card shops vs. breakers.I am by no means an expert, but what I've heard from box sellers, who have been in the business 30 years, at shows is that there are ridiculous contracts now to buy cases, because of the breakers and because of the oligopoly turning into a monopoly/duopoly at the production level.
Panini and Fanatics have incentive now to produce more.
Agreed. While I participated in tons, and ran a bunch myself, I really think group breaks are part of what has ruined this “hobby”. Being able to speculate on prospect cards used to be my favorite thing to do. In 2009, I was buying Bowman Draft cases for $600. At that price point, you could easily hold prospect cards and see who panned out and who didn’t. It was easy to buy up a bunch of a certain prospect you liked. Now every prospect, no matter how minor, comes with huge price tags right out of the gate.This is absolutely the case, and it's no different for local card shops vs. breakers.
The Laytons/Backyard, etc. mega breakers are getting huge allocations of premium products. When National Treasures releases, you'll see a place like Layton break 50 cases+ in a weekend. 99% of all other breakers and local card shops can't get 50 cases, and in most cases, can't even get 5 cases. There is a massive monopoly on the high end products, the release date products, the first-off-the-line products that are held by the breakers because they are pre-committing to buying 200-300 cases or whatever it is. Basically, Panini/Topps and their distributors already have their products sold before they release them, which is how on release date, these breakers are already sitting on hundreds of cases, it's how they can squirrel away cases for things like a Super Bowl 300-box break, etc.
It's forcing the non massive guys to charge a fortune in premiums on the lower end stuff, same with card shops, etc.
I'm so glad I got into the breaking world around 2014 and was out by 2019 (as a consumer), even though I found a lot of guys in the industry I really liked.
I think that's a fine angle- you could frame it as an equivalent value Red Sox card and see what they come back with. There aren't a ton of $300+ dollar Red Sox cards out there that aren't pretty fantastic (like, a Mo/Nomar dual on-card auto was about $60, so yeah). The long and short of it is whatever you get, it better be darn good.What about something like this? Not sure it’s a $400 card, but, you get the idea.
Otherwise, I’d say ask for Ohtani or demand another Trout.
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You're the man. Thanks for this advice.Personally, I'd keep it simple - you got a current S-tier star auto they can't fulfill, I'd want an equivalent, stable S-tier star or, at worst, 2 A-tier stars whose value is reliable. I'd ask for Ohtani first as there probably isn't a licensed Ohtani auto in their warehouse worth less than the Trout is - they'll likely say no based on market value. Betts has signed a licensed card in nearly a decade at this point - if they somehow have a signed Mookie Betts sitting around I'd do that in a second. Outside of those two, I think the next choice is Aaron Judge, just as safe as safe gets current market wise.
If those three aren't there, it gets iffier. For current guys, I think Acuna is the next one, but he signs a lot more and while he is still quite desirable (I got my first Acuna recently and it's one I want to keep), his auto is not great so it'd be much more card dependent. Soto has a similar issue - amazing player, signs a ton. J-Rod is also up there, but he does sign regularly too and all of those guys you can get good autos for less than what a Trout auto will cost you.
If you're going retired, I don't think there's a retired guy Topps gets to sign I'd take in a one for one right now, like I'd want a good Pedro AND a good Yaz for instance, and then it depends on the card. $400 Yaz autos exist - the recent Retrofractor Autos, dual or triple Red Sox autos (which might be your coolest personal bet), maybe a Heritage Red Auto (not sure on pricing on that). Once you get to this point it's SO dependent on the card itself
Otherwise, prioritize rookie cards, prioritize good brands if you get an offer - like a Carroll or Rutschman or Gunnar are all justifiable but you're gambling a bit more there and all three signed enough in their rookie year that they are likely to continue,.
If I were in your spot, I'd say any other Trouts, Ohtani, or Betts (and Judge if you're willing) and see what they come back with. Maybe throw out if there's any GREAT Yaz or Pedro options to give choices if you're feeling charitable.
Bought into a jumbo case break and ended up with the following if anyone needs something:After listening to a bunch of cases get opened as background noise and doing my requisite Sox break (got a Ceddanne gold foil and two relics, so I did ok), some thoughts
* Topps does deserve credit for improving their overall designs. As much as I don't like the 2024 base design, the parallels are substantially better (Independence Day, Camo, Team Logo, all look really cool) and works well with foils. Home Field Advantage is a much better insert this year, and there's some really cool Easter eggs in there (the Kevin Hart Philadelphia cards are super funny). The inserts on the whole still aren't at Panini level and grow boring really quickly but for flagship it's a step up off of past years
* Like I suspected, a massive print run this year. Hitting numbered parallels are stupidly difficult. We've seen hobby boxes with no parallels, jumbos with mostly "normal insert, rainbow/gold foil, retro design" and nothing else. Even the foil packs seem to be hitting a lot less often (over 13 cases I had on, three autos in the 156 silver packs). Jumbo in particular seems like a really rough format for the money. I think there were only two Home Field Advantages over the 13 cases, one Heavy Lumber, one camo parallel, two /50 parallels, just really tough. My gut says usually one numbered base parallel per hobby box and two per jumbo
* Autos seem a little less junky. Definitely saw fewer of the sticker auto type (Baseball Stars) and more recognizable names. The high end names are still really tough to hit but it does seem more likely to pull a hit of a guy you know. Also seems to be more game worn relic cards, but player worn still exists. I also only saw two redemptions (Cal Ripken and Ken Griffey) so that's good given how long Topps can take to get those in.
* Fewer manufactured patches and this year they seem all numbered and cool looking at least, so if that's your hit it's not the worst thing ever (Home Sweet Home Medallions)
* Jumbos are very hard to recommend. Of the around 100 boxes I saw yesterday it's hard to imagine more than 5 or so returned what they would have cost to open and those were largely centered on one massive hit (Ohtani /25 Auto, Henry Davis RC Auto /5, Jasson Dominguez black auto), and too many of them were just complete busts - the 350 player checklist is diluted with a bunch of bad players and group cards as Topps held back a bunch of names for Series 2 and Update (for instance you won't find Casas or Bello in Series 1,but you will find Joe Jacques and Alex Verdugo for Boston). Your biggest chase rookies are very tough to get your hands on beyond a base card.
The offer is reasonable and one I'd be tempted to take, but I'd have some concerns.Following @Fishercat 's advice (and hat tip to @NJ_Sox_Fan ), I requested a replacement for the unfulfilled Mike Trout auto card -- wanted to see options for Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts.
Unfortunately, I received an email response from somebody other than the very helpful guy who said he'd try to fulfill the card with the player of my choice. The offer I received was 2023 Topps Sterling Dual Auto Relic Miguel Cabrera Ronald Acuna Jr. -- I've seen that selling for $350, so I guess the value is close enough.
That said, I'm writing back to connect with the helpful guy. I want a card that either I want to keep, or I can be 100% confident will sell quickly for at least $350. Or, ideally, both.
A lot of people would be asking for that cardThe offer is reasonable and one I'd be tempted to take, but I'd have some concerns.
Pros:
- Sterling is a premium set - $500 per card basically out of pack - and this is one of the better cards. While Flagship is popular, it's an entry level set and this will objectively be a nicer sports card with a different market
- The two visual examples we have on eBay are two of the nicest Acuna autos I've ever seen - full, not streaky, not off card. Getting a good Acuna auto can be an adventure and it seems he took care on his Sterling cards
- Dual on card autos usually have an appeal and some kind of multiplier built into them - especially if both players are good.. I definitely paid more for a dual Mo Vaughn / Nomar card than I would have for single on card autos of both, similarly with a Larkin/Votto I bought.
- Acuna/Cabrera is a pretty darn safe pair of players - like Acuna would have to crater to lose a lot of value as the star on a perennial contender and Miggy is retired and, outside of a PED or criminal allegation, is flying to the HoF.
Cons
- With that said....who is asking for an Acuna / Miggy dual? They never played for the same team, in the same league, had a moment or moments with each other. The only tenuous connection is that Miggy retired in the year Acuna won MVP....last year. It's a cool card to represent 2023 but maybe not in terms of one that a collector would hunt for outside of someone who just wants two great player autos on one card. Definitely more cool as a "pull" than a targeted buy.
- The comps you have are at product release where it's always highest, graded 10/10, and/or right after Acuna got MVP and Miggy retired. I feel like with two other visible high end releases (Definitive and Diamond Icons) recently, Sterling might be at the back of people's minds. I wouldn't be shocked if you netted closer to 250-300 as opposed to $350 if you got it and sold it raw.
- I don't see the value going up any time soon. Generally for retired players you're looking at HoF voting/induction as the next time people might come back looking for any auto and that's years out. Acuna has the MVP value built in, so his next step up is either going nuclear on the field or reducing signing dramatically off of it. He may be doing that - but we don't know.
- The relics on both aren't really value adds. There are dual autos / dual relics with sick patches, these seem to just be single color ones. People will pay a nice premium for great looking multi color relics, but just tiny jersey swatches from guys who were active? Eh.
I might see if you can get a photo of the card that might take you off the fence, and it is a fair offer with a pretty high value "floor"...but if you wanted to hold out for something more to your tastes that's' fine too.
It does remind me there was one category of players I forgot to mention. Recently retired superstars hold a very strong auto market. Players like Albert Pujols, Ichiro, and Ken Griffey Jr. sign for Topps frequently enough, always sell well, and might be desirable. The Miggy one reminded me of that. Like if they had a Griffey in house I'd take that and run and I'd seriously consider a good one from the other two.
This is a great point and probably the intention of the card. Good call out.A lot of people would be asking for that card
Venezuelans
Easy sell next WBC especially if it’s in Miami again
PM'edBought into a jumbo case break and ended up with the following if anyone needs something:
- 5-6 of each sox base card, but 11 Rafaela base RCs.
- Gold Duran
- Jensen refractor
- Ted Williams Grand Gamer
- 1989 Rafaela, Boggs, and Yoshida
- 2 Chrome Mojo Rafaela from the silver packs.
That’s nuts, but they are beautiful cards!Decided to open a Jumbo next … Again hit base RC of Carter, Elly, Domínguez, Davis, CES and Rafaela.
Also this Rafaela
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This Domínguez
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The only gold of any consequence
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And I am starting to sense a theme
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LOL, Nomar must have been bored this winter.Decided to open a Jumbo next … Again hit base RC of Carter, Elly, Domínguez, Davis, CES and Rafaela.
Also this Rafaela
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This Domínguez
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The only gold of any consequence
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And I am starting to sense a theme
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Cardboard Connection says this might be a "True Photo Variation". Sweet card, too bad it's Kopech and not, like, Ohtani or something.Box 3 - back to hobby -
This was a dud. Carter and Elly base RC. Devers HR card. Francisco Alvarez player worn jersey /199.
Did get this odd Kopech with no border or name
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Yeah, seems like that. Apparently they are a case hit? Not sure that’s true. If there’s only 1, I guess it has some value.Cardboard Connection says this might be a "True Photo Variation". Sweet card, too bad it's Kopech and not, like, Ohtani or something.
If you keep one each of the Rafaelas, one other base rookies and sell the rest, what can you get?And that folks, is how you light $767 on fire.
I’m guessing only the jumbos have any color, because I didn’t hit any color in any hobby box.
I did wind up with:
(5) base Rafaela
(2) 89 Topps Rafaela
(5) base Carter
(5) base Domínguez
(2) greatest hits Dominguez
(1) silver pack Dominguez
(5) base Elly de la Cruz
Without actually looking anything up, I doubt I’d even get back 1/3 of the moneyIf you keep one each of the Rafaelas, one other base rookies and sell the rest, what can you get?
Yeah I have to go through everything again. Didn’t hit a single Ohtani card, so know there’s none of those. Didn’t know about the Kevin Hart or the golden mirrors.$200ish would be my guess. Four complete sets if he keeps the rookies (so no fifth set) is about $120 and the hits could piece together the remainder.
Hobby does have color at a better per dollar rate than jumbos but they don’t have gold foils and color is rare enough that you can get a full box with none.
NJ as unlikely as it is, double check for the following as many of these don’t show up in the hit slots
Golden Mirrors (gold back alternate image SSPs), Black Borders (full black border), Kevin Hart Phillies parallels, Soto or Ohtani in their new uniforms, or just 1/1s that look like normal cards (stamped on the back)
How many gold parallels did you hit? I think it’s crazy that they used to come 2-3 per blaster even though they are numbered to /2000+. Now they seem to hit 1-2 per hobby. Did the print runs increase that much over the past 5 years?And that folks, is how you light $767 on fire.
I’m guessing only the jumbos have any color, because I didn’t hit any color in any hobby box.
I did wind up with:
(5) base Rafaela
(2) 89 Topps Rafaela
(5) base Carter
(5) base Domínguez
(2) greatest hits Dominguez
(1) silver pack Dominguez
(5) base Elly de la Cruz
The gold /2024? I’d have to recount but probably 3-4.How many gold parallels did you hit? I think it’s crazy that they used to come 2-3 per blaster even though they are numbered to /2000+. Now they seem to hit 1-2 per hobby. Did the print runs increase that much over the past 5 years?
Around 1:00 a.m. EST on Sunday, bidding came to a close for a highly touted case filled with thousands of unopened 1979-1980 O-Pee-Chee brand hockey cards that a Saskatchewan family found in their attic.
The case holding unopened boxes of cards is estimated to possibly hold from 25 to 27 Wayne Gretzky cards from his rookie year, but no one knows for sure, according to Simonds. Values vary, but mint condition Gretzky rookie cards have been sold for $3.75 million.
There were about 15 unique bidders, but in the end it came down to an American and Canadian duking it out until the Canadian won and bought the case for $3,100,000 US ($4,180,815 Cdn).
With a 20 per cent buyers premium on top of the purchase, the final amount the Canadian bidder paid was $3,720,000 US ($5,016,978 Cdn).
The same family that found the O-Pee-Chee hockey cards also found cases of baseball cards. Simonds said there was enough to fill up a van.
He said in addition to "the most significant find of Canadian cards we have seen in the past 20 years," there are 1977, 1978 and 1979 dated cases of baseball cards.
Simonds reckons at least a few of the cases will be in the $300,000 US range, and the Saskatchewan family could see another seven-figure payday once everything is sold.
Pokemon cards have already gotten that way. Just about any box thats 5+ years old is going to sell for much more sealed than basically any PSA 10 from that set (minus a small handful of cards). Sports appears to be headed the same way.At some point 40+ year old sealed wax becomes more collectable than anything that's possible inside of it The cast sold for 3.72m for approximately 27 Wayne Gretzky OPC RCs - the highest eBay sale in the last 90 days was a PSA8 at 13k. A PSA10 sold for 1.29m and is a Pop 2 card, a PSA9 sold for 132k and is a Pop 93.
You'd need pretty much every Gretzky RC to be a PSA 9 - or at least one Gem Mint 10 with a bunch of 9s - to break even on that case.
I suspect whoever the buyer is is keeping that sealed for a long, long time.
What about all the redemption cards that will have expired, though?Pokemon cards have already gotten that way. Just about any box thats 5+ years old is going to sell for much more sealed than basically any PSA 10 from that set (minus a small handful of cards). Sports appears to be headed the same way.
It's another great question to add to the "how the fuck are these companies allowed to do this" checklist.What about all the redemption cards that will have expired, though?
I know it's not the same, but I remember when companies started getting scummy with expiration dates on gift cards, forcing the government to create a law protecting consumers for at least 5 years. If they're promoting these cards as a potential hit, you'd think a similar timeline should apply.That card producers can have expiration dates - especially relatively short ones like two years - on products is one of the scummiest elements of modern card collecting. It's bad enough that some companies will put redemption cards in products they can't ultimately deliver on (as DotB has hammered out) and Topps had gotten a lot better about avoiding redemptions for most guys recently, but there's no reasonable argument that redemptions should have that narrow of a timeframe for redemption (2 years from product release)
and seven years in MA, baybee!I know it's not the same, but I remember when companies started getting scummy with expiration dates on gift cards, forcing the government to create a law protecting consumers for at least 5 years. If they're promoting these cards as a potential hit, you'd think a similar timeline should apply.
So jealous. What a beauty. I find myself so nostalgic for Nomar and Pedroia.
A non-autographed Mookie relic doesnt really excite me… is there something more “special” I’m not thinking of? A 1/1?Thank you for sending over your replacement preferences. In looking through our available inventory, we do not have any Shohei or Mookie autographs that would value in the same range as the pending Trout. I do have something really nice of Betts that might interest you -- let's just say it is a one of a kind item -- but it is not autographed and I wanted to reach out before making the substitution offer since we are limited in the number of offers we can make.
If a non-autograph would be of interest, I will be happy to make an offer with that card in mind. If you would prefer an auto for an auto -- and I completely understand if that is your preferred substitution path -- I will need to ask for more preferences of your favorite players/team to work off of.
What an odd email to get. Why not just say what the “one of a kind “ Betts item is. Could be a Betts superfractor?Here’s the latest in my Mike Trout redemption journey, after I requested a replacement from either Ohtani or Mookie. — whaddya think @Fishercat and @NJ_Sox_Fan ?
A non-autographed Mookie relic doesnt really excite me… is there something more “special” I’m not thinking of? A 1/1?
Bowling glove? Jockstrap?Here’s the latest in my Mike Trout redemption journey, after I requested a replacement from either Ohtani or Mookie. — whaddya think @Fishercat and @NJ_Sox_Fan ?
A non-autographed Mookie relic doesnt really excite me… is there something more “special” I’m not thinking of? A 1/1?