Rasputin said:
I've believed all along that if Sizemore comes back healthy as any approximation of what he was early in his career, he will take over in LF.
Spring Training 2014
- Thread starter SoxJox
- Start date
I've believed all along that if Sizemore comes back healthy as any approximation of what he was early in his career, he will take over in LF.
The Boomer said:
That seems like a perfectly reasonable assumption, and likely what the Sox were really looking for when they signed him. The outfield talent in the high minors is...thin. If they can get a few years of solid LF I think they'd be ecstatic.
Red(s)HawksFan said:
Is it me, or is this a pretty big year for Doubront?
He's 26 now, with two full years under his belt, a little post season experience, some ups, some downs, and now he's pretty clearly not the last guy in the rotation. Just going out there and not being terrible isn't really enough. If he ever wants to be something more than Just A Guy, he's got to step it up pretty soon, don'tcha think?
Rasputin said:
I know it's kind of a longshot given his health issues, but when healthy, Sizemore was (is?) a terrific baseball player. From 2005-2009, here were his per-162 game numbers:
599 ab, 117 r, 180 h, 40 2b, 9 3b, 28 hr, 85 rbi, 28 sb, .276/.368/.488/.856, 126 ops+
Now, NOBODY here thinks he'll play enough to accumulate this stat line. But if he could give them 100 games, with 60 r, 25 2b, 15 hr, 60 rbi, 18 sb, and an .800 ops, that would be fantastic. Imagine if, incredibly, he's healthy. He could potentially be a HUGE addition to this team.
Well .. Even if his bat reclaims some of its past glory what are the chances he can play a plus CF? I mean, if JBJ puts up a .750ops then - given the GG defence - he's got to be better than Sizemore? If Sizemore manages to still be healthy come May 15th after 6 weeks in xST then he might be competing with Nava or Carp but I find it pretty far-fetched to project as the starter in CFivanvamp said:
I'll challenge you a bit on that one. Yes, if Doobie doesn't take a step forward this year there will be all sorts of histrionics about how he's plateaued as a back-end guy. But realistically, 26 is still 26 and he's a location-based lefty. He could be meh for two more years and still be at a place on the curve where a big step forward wouldn't be an outlier.Rasputin said:
I was just thinking of how much his career is moving along like Lester's. Lester was struggling in his time up prior to his appearance in the World Series ('07) with some highs and lows- although yes, I'm aware of one of the major reasons why Lester may have struggled.JimBoSox9 said:
I can totally imagine Doobie's WS appearance being something that everyone will point to as his "turning point" into turning into a top tier pitcher. I don't think for a minute he'll ever have the ceiling that Lester had, but I can imagine him being a healthy 200+ inning starter churning out a consistent sub 4.00ERA for 8 more seasons.
Doubront's more or less reached his ceiling no? He was always said to have a ceiling as a mid-rotation starter and he's there. Inconsistency is the hallmark of the good but not great starters which is more or less what he is. And there's nothing wrong with that. He is what he is. He's already exceeded my expectations. (Soxprospects write up which appears to be a couple of years old):
[SIZE=8pt]Scouting Report: [/SIZE]Left-handed pitcher who has filled out well over the last several years. Fastball sits 91-93 mph. Throws both two-seam and four-seam varieties. Four-seamer can top out at 94 mph when working out of bullpen. Two-seamer shows late arm-side run. Average-to-solid-average fastball command. Struggles to consistently hit spots and control heater in stretches. Can land too open during delivery, which hinders command and reduces ability to throw downhill. Deceptive 3/4 delivery, as hitters don't pick up the ball until late, causing his fastball to look a little faster. Plus 79-83 mph changeup. Can throw with arm-side fade or turnover for screwball action. Generates swings-and-misses. Out pitch when ahead in the count. Has trust to throw at any point in sequences. 76-79 mph curveball can be inconsistent, but has been improving in creating snap. Improved feel has increased effectiveness against left-handed batters. Can hang pitch too much. At best when keeping fastball in lower tier of strike zone. Needs improvement being more efficient with pitch count to go deeper into games and stick long-term as a starter. Projects as a back-of-the-rotation starter at the major-league level.
[SIZE=8pt]Scouting Report: [/SIZE]Left-handed pitcher who has filled out well over the last several years. Fastball sits 91-93 mph. Throws both two-seam and four-seam varieties. Four-seamer can top out at 94 mph when working out of bullpen. Two-seamer shows late arm-side run. Average-to-solid-average fastball command. Struggles to consistently hit spots and control heater in stretches. Can land too open during delivery, which hinders command and reduces ability to throw downhill. Deceptive 3/4 delivery, as hitters don't pick up the ball until late, causing his fastball to look a little faster. Plus 79-83 mph changeup. Can throw with arm-side fade or turnover for screwball action. Generates swings-and-misses. Out pitch when ahead in the count. Has trust to throw at any point in sequences. 76-79 mph curveball can be inconsistent, but has been improving in creating snap. Improved feel has increased effectiveness against left-handed batters. Can hang pitch too much. At best when keeping fastball in lower tier of strike zone. Needs improvement being more efficient with pitch count to go deeper into games and stick long-term as a starter. Projects as a back-of-the-rotation starter at the major-league level.
Sprowl can chime in on this, but what Doubront becomes is really tied into finding his velocity. He went from a guy who sat at 92-95 to a guy who maxed out at 92 last year. It made an enormous difference.
Edit: brain hurts
Edit: brain hurts
I have trouble declaring a 26 y/o lefty with all of 358 major league innings has hit his ceiling. It's possible, but it's just as likely he could improve.
Doubront has been a steady contributor for this team the last two years. In 2012 he was the one of very few reliable guys in the rotation over the summer and 2013 he started off poorly before hitting an average stride or better toward the end.
Obviously being in shape entering camp is a hopeful sign. Keeping him healthy through 200 innings should be the goal and at 26 I feel comfortable saying he has room to improve.
Before camp starts my rotation would be Lester Buch Lacky Peavy and Doubront with Dempster transitioning to the pen if he's not traded.
Other teams will do a lot worse at their 4 and 5 slots than Peavy and Doubront.
Obviously being in shape entering camp is a hopeful sign. Keeping him healthy through 200 innings should be the goal and at 26 I feel comfortable saying he has room to improve.
Before camp starts my rotation would be Lester Buch Lacky Peavy and Doubront with Dempster transitioning to the pen if he's not traded.
Other teams will do a lot worse at their 4 and 5 slots than Peavy and Doubront.
“@PeteAbe: Jake Peavy left with his right wrist and right ring finger wrapped in a bandage. Said if was nothing. Still ... #redsox”
https://twitter.com/PeteAbe/status/434384416367181824
https://twitter.com/PeteAbe/status/434384416367181824
Sure, command will be huge for a guy with a BB/9 hovering just shy of 4.00. But if he gets his velocity back and restores his K/9 back to the ~9 range it would also be a big step up for him, and it's something he's shown before, unlike command.Doctor G said:
I'd say 2014 is a big year for Doubront in that this is the year he should start showing maturation in his command. Pettitte started to show command gains around year 3 at the ML level. So did Lester. Both where a bit younger in age than Doubront at that point too, so this is about when we should expect Doubie to take that step forward himself.
If he doesn't and he gets the velocity back he's probably a solid mid-rotation guy for a while. If he doesn't and doesn't get the velocity back either he's a mid to back of the rotation guy. If he gets both the velocity back and the command shows some signs of improvement he's got legitimate #2 potential.
Drek717 said:
Before he faded in September, Doubront had a 3 month stretch from June-August where his BB/9 was 3.26 over 91 IP. If he could replicate that with a low-mid 90's FB over 200 IP....you're looking at more than a 4/5th starter.
Zackly. A lot of people were saying his conditioning was what made him wear down and lose his stuff towards the end of the season. If he's "conditioned" as it appears he has in this year's ST photos then perhaps that very, very good stretch could be his average baseline. Lester struggled with command all through his mL's and first two seasons and a lot of posters here were writing him off as nothing more than a no. 3 on a non-contender with occasional flashes of brilliance.foulkehampshire said:
Big strong lefties tend to hit their ceilings later- 26, 27 and have a sustained career that can last until around 34, 35. Doob's moments of mastery I'm hoping are just glimpses of what he might become by next year (and show a major step towards it this season).
On Doubront, the primary thing will be maturity in approach, and that will have a cascading impact on his success. Arriving in shape seems to be an indicator of that more than just the usual "best shape of his life" ST article.
I think his stuff compares to Pettitte and he can excel far from 95 with improved command, but I would rather see his velocity return with conditioning at his age while his command and craft continue to improve over the next four years. Let his velo decline be more subtle and wait for his 30s, rather than take a big step back as a 26 year old.
I agree with Trotsky on big strong lefties, and I would add to that being even more the case with guys like Felix who are not max effort guys. I am definitely bullish on him right now, and actually would take the over on everybody on our staff except for Lackey (who is decent as a push) compared to 2013 performance.
Back to The Sizemore Affair, it is a good point that he could regain the health necessary to play regularly without being able to perform in CF, or preferred to insulate from injury risk in LF regardless. If that is the case Bradley's door opens more and Nava risks losing the roster spot if he can't beat out Carp offensively. I'm still doubtful about Sizemore's health, but I think he plays regularly if reasonably healthy, and we are better off sending down one of the guys with options than dealing someone as expendible and then missing him when an injury happens.
I think his stuff compares to Pettitte and he can excel far from 95 with improved command, but I would rather see his velocity return with conditioning at his age while his command and craft continue to improve over the next four years. Let his velo decline be more subtle and wait for his 30s, rather than take a big step back as a 26 year old.
I agree with Trotsky on big strong lefties, and I would add to that being even more the case with guys like Felix who are not max effort guys. I am definitely bullish on him right now, and actually would take the over on everybody on our staff except for Lackey (who is decent as a push) compared to 2013 performance.
Back to The Sizemore Affair, it is a good point that he could regain the health necessary to play regularly without being able to perform in CF, or preferred to insulate from injury risk in LF regardless. If that is the case Bradley's door opens more and Nava risks losing the roster spot if he can't beat out Carp offensively. I'm still doubtful about Sizemore's health, but I think he plays regularly if reasonably healthy, and we are better off sending down one of the guys with options than dealing someone as expendible and then missing him when an injury happens.
Regarding Sizemore .. I really can't see sending down Nava .. He established himself as a major league regular last year -and a pretty good one at that .. that would be just an awful message to be sending a guy like Nava who has been such a good organizational soldier.koufax37 said:
I think they would have to trade one of Nava or Carp
Carp or Nava would both bring back something useful in trades. Though Sizemore would likely need to not miss a day of whatever optimistic rehab plan/schedule he is on. A rehab assignment/15 day dl trip for Sizemore to begin the year could be a theoretical option.
I think he starts in extended spring training .. The FO are going to need a lot of evidence that he can stay healthy before making any trades. And two weeks in Pawtucket in April is not going to be enough. Realistically I see a month in Florida and then the longest rehab stint that's allowed .. If he's still healthy by mid May its conceivable a move would be made to accommodate him. But he has to be recognizably better than Nava or Carp ..jimbobim said:
Bulked up all right. Problem last year wasn't strength though, more like fishing for sliders low and away.soxhop411 said:
JimBoSox9 said:
Well, sure, I wasn't really trying to suggest that it was this year or never, but if it doesn't happen in the next three years, never is looking a lot more likely.
Also, from a roster management perspective, with Peavy and Dempster being out of the picture for 2015, the team needs Doubront to be solid enough that they can stick a rookie in the fifth slot and not worry. I think he's probably already to that point, but heading into 2016, Lackey is going to be a free agent, and an oldish one. Assuming Lester is re-signed, the Sox would be looking at Lester, Buchholz, Doubront, whichever kid gets the job in 2015, and another kid. The performance of Doubront in 2015 is going to be a pretty big influence on whether the team can trust a spot to a rookie when also trusting one to a sophomore. Obviously, so is the performance of the sophomore in his rookie season, but would you want to be trying for a four-peat with the 2013 Doubront as your third best starter?
Also, someone posted his monthly splits. If you look at the game logs, there's a stretch starting May 16 where he doesn't allow more than three earned runs or four runs (and that only twice) until August 16, a span of 17 starts. There were, in fact, only six starts where he allowed more than three earned runs, it's just that there was one of four, one of five, and four of six. Meanwhile there were seven games where he didn't go five, and only five where he went seven. If all he does is get to 200 innings while allowing the same runs, his ERA is 3.51. If he can turn a few of his disastrous short outings (for runs or more, less than five innings) into outings that are merely bad or mediocre, we're looking at a guy throwing 200 innings with an ERA in the low to mid threes and that's a guy that's tremendously valuable out of the three spot.
And maybe Buchholz goes after 2016 and in 2017 we're looking at a rotation of Lester, Doubront, Webster, Owens, and Workman.
If all he can put up is an 800 OPS, then he's not really an improvement over the Nava as the strobg side of the Gomes platoon. Nava had an 894 OPS as a lefthanded hitter last season, and has an 833 over his career, a number that includes a 390 OBP in 771 plate appearances.ivanvamp said:
The lack of respect for Nava is astonishing on a board that supposedly values grind-it-out ABs, high OBP, and payroll efficiency.
soxhop411 said:
It looks like he was skipping leg days.
Really good point.Plympton91 said:
In addition to that, if Sizemore took Nava's at-bats he would cost the Sox $6MM to Nava's MLB minimum and additional 3yrs of service.
Sizemore isn't here to replace Carp, Gomes and Nava. He is here as JBJ insurance.
As it has been pointed out a gazillion times this winter .. There is no room on the roster for Sizemore (or any other CF du jour that has been debated) AND those guys. Someone would have to go .. Either traded out of town or to AAA.benhogan said:
benhogan said:
Bolded makes no sense. If Ben felt the team needed insurance in CF, he'd have gotten someone with a higher floor than Sizemore. Sizemore might well be totally useless; in fact, it's probably the most likely outcome. As I see it, Sizemore is a pure upside gamble, the kind of move that a team with a fairly complete outfield situation can make.
benhogan said:
I don't think that is remotely true except maybe in the sense that he could play right while Victorino plays center.
Plympton91 said:
He's 30 years old and has 282 games of major league experience. Do you really think he's an .831 OPS guy?
Yes I do, as a LHB Nava is better then a .831 OPS guy. The guy is the poster child for "late bloomers", went from towel boy on college team to All-WAC, so his 29-33 yrs will probably be more productive then the average. He has improved every year since he has been in the Majors. Picked up a new position on the fly last season. Didn't say a word when Gomes played left in the playoffs vs. RHP. And his contract situation is team friendly.Rasputin said:
Signing Sizemore is a fine, low risk option. But talk of replacing Nava with him is inane, you're picking on the wrong player.
Are you suggesting that Daniel nava has more value .. Present and future .. Than JBJ?benhogan said:
benhogan said:
How long have you been watching baseball? I'm trying not to be an asshole here, but guys who don't sniff the bigs until they're 27 and who don't play anything resembling a full season until they're thirty don't generally have long careers of sustained excellence. They have short careers where they're a little bit better than completely fungible. I'm going to be very surprised--pleasantly--if 2013 isn't the best year of his career by a pretty wide margin.
Been watching for 40 years and you? Good to see that you are successful without really trying.Rasputin said:
Maybe Nava is different then the 'average' late arriving MLB player, if you look at his route to MLB it was completely abnormal, right?
Maybe he has a huge chip on his shoulder and works his butt off in the off-season?
Maybe he eats healthier then most and will be in better condition as he ages?
I expect Nava to lead off vs. RHP this year, if that happens, that would indicate to me that the organization doesn't believe he is "fungible" or that last year was a fluke.
So .. You ARE suggesting that you would rather have Nava on this team than JBJ ? (In the really unlikely event Sizemore makes a miracle comeback) ?benhogan said:
BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
That's a false choice. Both have options, and whoever is the worse player as of the last day of spring training could go to Pawtucket until Sizemore (or Victorino for that matter) inevitably breaks down and misses a large portion of the season.
To continue with the idea of what the real level of Nava is right now. Consider:
In his final 456 PA in AAA, he had a line of .305 / .406 / .483; for whatever reason, he was terrible in April and May 2011, perhaps making an adjustment that turn him into the hitter he's been, when healthy, since June 2011.
To properly evaluate the major league portion of his 2012 season, you have to break it up into 4 parts.
From his callup to June 9, he had a line of .298 / .429 / .489
Then on June 10, this article about a sore left hand appeared, and he missed a week of games and went 10 days before getting another start:
http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2012/06/red_sox_of_daniel_navas_injury.html
Reinserted into the lineup, he went on a BAbip tear for 5 days, 10-22, 2 2b, 2 bb, but then went into a slump, going 2-21 to finish June, and put up a 474 OPS in 70 PA in July before succumbing to the Disabled List on July 29. He returned for 2 games, August 21 and 22, before going back on the Disabled List, and then came back to start a game for the first time on September 12.
Then starting in mid-September, giving him about a week as a major league rehab assignment, and playing everyday even against lefthanders, he went 10-36 with a 2B, 2 HR's, and 4 BB.
After the season, he had surgery on left wrist to remove a cyst. Fixing the problem that first appeared in early June and that he tried to play through for the rest of the season.
And so, yeah, against righthanded pitchers in 2014, I expect Daniel Nava to have at least an 831 OPS, and I expect that OPS to come with an OBP of at least 375. If Sizemore is healthy at the end of spring training and JBJ looks ready to play CF everyday, they should see if they can trade Sizemore for something useful, and let some other team take the risk of his legs giving out by the end of April. Daniel Nava and Jonny Gomes should operate on a strict platoon in LF for the Red Sox, and they'll probably be among the most productive LFs in major league baseball.
Nope, never said or suggested that. Think both players offer tremendous "value" to the SoxBCsMightyJoeYoung said:
How many of these guys who don't play until they're 30 have a year like Nava's 2013? He had the 7th-best OBP vs. RHP among all of MLB. It was driven by a high BABIP, but his LD% vs. RHP was 27.8%, 12th in all MLB. Over the past two years he's 10th in OBP vs. RHP. This is absolute top-level production over a pretty large sample and for the time being not a mirage. He can hit.Rasputin said:
He has a strange career trajectory, but really since he was signed by the Sox in 2008 he has done nothing but hit. He had a .912 OPS and a .415 OBP in 446 MiLB games. If he had any kind of pedigree he would have broken in earlier but the Sox were incredibly slow on him. He may not last deep into his 30s but there's not much reason to doubt his production the next couple years.
It was ridiculous that he got benched in the playoffs and it is similarly asinine that him getting every possible PA vs. RHP in 2014 isn't written in indelible ink.
benhogan said:
Oh, you silly, silly man, that wasn't asshole. You want asshole, I can dredge up asshole.
benhogan said:
Well, yes, I suppose it was. And why do you think that was?
benhogan said:
See, it's like you're begging me to be an asshole. Do you really think that just working your ass off and paying attention to what he eats is going to make him as good or better than people who have vastly superior physical skills? Do you think working your ass off and paying attention to what you eat are rare things?
I hope he has tremendous success. I hope he kicks ass and takes names all the way to the Hall of Fame but it is much more likely that he'll be out of baseball in five years.
Rasputin said:
This is the type of quote that makes me hope that every now and then players check in on these boards - personally I'd love Nava to read this and stack it on his list of doubters. Let's save this one for the future and revisit at some point...
Toe Nash said:
Because every thirty year old player with one really good season under their belt is obviously going to repeat that, right? Bob Hamelin didn't have a great rookie season at a much younger age than Nava then completely fall off the map. Pat Listach. Joe Charbonneau.
You're trying to project a player based on one really good major league season, some not as good but still good part time work in other seasons, and a bunch of minor league numbers where he has always been old for the league. That's not a recipe for a confident projection. There's just not enough data.
Yea its a numbers thing. We'll get our answer at the end of spring training. See who is healthy, who is ready to go, who offers the greatest trade value, who is on the IR, who has options, who can go to extended spring training, etc.BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
I do think sending Nava down is a very tough move if it is even close between him and JBJ, for age, development, and track record, even if it is only one good year, it is a full year of MLB and the most recent year. Trading Nava if there is a healthy Sizemore also puts the team in a bad situation when the inevitable injury happens and the lack of a 4th outfielder.
I think it is very likely that Sizemore starts in extended ST on the DL, and when/if he proves he is healthy we really have three scenarios:
1) JBJ isn't doing great and gets sent down, forcing Victorino into center. This is a tough one for me to thing works because it would be the second straight year JBJ is a starter out of ST and then is a minor leaguer, and likely hurts our defense significantly at two positions.
2) Nava isn't doing well and can justifiably be sent down. I have a tough time with this one as well, both because I expect and root for him to be successful, and because sending down someone at his age coming off a very successful season needs some pretty big slump, not just minor struggles.
3) All hands are healthy and doing fine, Carp gets traded. This is the one I think is most likely if each scenario plays out well. Nava has more offensive and defensive versatility, and they are likely fairly similar offensive producers. I think Carp is likely to also have a little more trade value, but that is pretty subjective and similar.
The least likely positive outcome I am leaving out is Sizemore does so well he breaks camp as a starter and one of the options above is forced, where 3 is still probably the best, 1 becomes more plausible.
And the negative possible outcome not listed above is the Mark Prior career arc and none of these decisions are made at all.
So while Nava has an option, it would seem to take the unexpected and improbable falling off a cliff for that to be a reasonable option, and trading him leaves a scary lack of depth when an injury happens. It most likely comes down to Carp vs. Sizemore, with Carp winning out of spring training, but following Sizemore's rehab work very carefully on Twitter.
On to the rotation, if Lester/Clay/Lackey/Peavy/Doubront are all healthy and ready to go, what happens to Dempster? It is awfully hard to stash a 6th starter for depth in the bullpen when he is making $13M. I know we want some depth, but there really doesn't seem to be a candidate to be kept somewhere, especially with Workman in that role. I'm finding it hard to see a scenario where we don't trade Dempster if everybody is healthy, and I still think he has a strong NL market.
I think it is very likely that Sizemore starts in extended ST on the DL, and when/if he proves he is healthy we really have three scenarios:
1) JBJ isn't doing great and gets sent down, forcing Victorino into center. This is a tough one for me to thing works because it would be the second straight year JBJ is a starter out of ST and then is a minor leaguer, and likely hurts our defense significantly at two positions.
2) Nava isn't doing well and can justifiably be sent down. I have a tough time with this one as well, both because I expect and root for him to be successful, and because sending down someone at his age coming off a very successful season needs some pretty big slump, not just minor struggles.
3) All hands are healthy and doing fine, Carp gets traded. This is the one I think is most likely if each scenario plays out well. Nava has more offensive and defensive versatility, and they are likely fairly similar offensive producers. I think Carp is likely to also have a little more trade value, but that is pretty subjective and similar.
The least likely positive outcome I am leaving out is Sizemore does so well he breaks camp as a starter and one of the options above is forced, where 3 is still probably the best, 1 becomes more plausible.
And the negative possible outcome not listed above is the Mark Prior career arc and none of these decisions are made at all.
So while Nava has an option, it would seem to take the unexpected and improbable falling off a cliff for that to be a reasonable option, and trading him leaves a scary lack of depth when an injury happens. It most likely comes down to Carp vs. Sizemore, with Carp winning out of spring training, but following Sizemore's rehab work very carefully on Twitter.
On to the rotation, if Lester/Clay/Lackey/Peavy/Doubront are all healthy and ready to go, what happens to Dempster? It is awfully hard to stash a 6th starter for depth in the bullpen when he is making $13M. I know we want some depth, but there really doesn't seem to be a candidate to be kept somewhere, especially with Workman in that role. I'm finding it hard to see a scenario where we don't trade Dempster if everybody is healthy, and I still think he has a strong NL market.
Well, I put out some statistical reasons to not expect a huge drop-off this year, but yes, a few random players who were famously flash-in-the-pans over 35 years is a good counterexample.Rasputin said:
Nava could certainly struggle. I doubt it's much more likely than any other 31-year-old. It seems much less likely than the chance of Sizemore being injured. You're working from the same info as me here so whatever, it seems you really want to disagree.
Nava wasn't given much of a chance but he took advantage of every chance and has done nothing but hit for the last 6 years. He isn't fat (Hamelin) or doing it on smoke and mirrors (Listach). With other guys who fell off you can usually in retrospect find some warning signs. With Nava it's just "well he wasn't drafted*." Pedigree plays a role but every year the recent history carries more and more weight.
Maybe this should be a new thread.
*A lot of why he wasn't drafted was basically that he grew (physically) late. When he was a freshman in HS he was only 4'9". So he was behind players who were more physically developed. When he went to college he was 5'7" but really skinny, so he didn't make the team at Santa Clara. He worked out with the team and got some power, but with no scholarship he couldn't afford to stay in school. So he had to play at a community college. He eventually proved himself but wasn't drafted because he really only had two years of production and one was at the CC.
This is the classic scouting Moneyball thing where a guy is ignored because he doesn't "look like" a baseball player. If he simply has an earlier growth spurt then probably he makes his HS team earlier and shows some power, so then he gets a scholarship somewhere. Then someone would have drafted him out of college, then he starts his minor league career three years earlier and probably breaks in to the majors a couple years earlier and we're not having this discussion. But because he got a late start and only had one year at Santa Clara against good competition (in which he dominated), and because the book on him was that he was too small, he had to go to the indie league and prove himself there, and probably got longer looks at every minor league stop than another prospect who looks good in jeans would. So now we're knocking him because he's only been in the majors for 240 games and he's already 31...these things just follow a guy around for his whole career.
well-worth reading: http://www.bostonglobe.com/magazine/2013/08/10/how-red-sox-outfielder-daniel-nava-overcame-odds/9bRXtsSLC9kxlY0OPsBs4O/story.html