Start, Sit, Trade: Play Along with Dave

Buzzkill Pauley

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Pete Abraham ‏@PeteAbe 24m24 minutes ago

Dombrowski said the #RedSox were likely done with “major moves” this offseason
Well, he's done everything else just exactly as he said he was going to this offseason. I guess I'll have to take his word that the team's about done with the 25-man roster.

Since the Sox will have a rotation stacked with LHSP, I would have liked to pick up a LHRP better than Ross for those inevitable 6-8th inning PH appearances, but since Koji and Layne are both dominant against them, I guess there's not really not too much to fear from lineups who stack all their RHH to start.
 

Al Zarilla

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Pete Abraham ‏@PeteAbe 24m24 minutes ago

Dombrowski said the #RedSox were likely done with “major moves” this offseason
Wonder why he comes out and says that. If the rest of the field thinks a team with money, or prospects to trade, etc. could be involved in future transactions, might they act differently? Maybe I'm still thinking too much of the cold war days, post Y2K, with the Yankees.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Wonder why he comes out and says that. If the rest of the field thinks a team with money, or prospects to trade, etc. could be involved in future transactions, might they act differently? Maybe I'm still thinking too much of the cold war days, post Y2K, with the Yankees.
It's not that different, really, than when he came out and flatly stated that he was targeting a 4th outfielder and a frontline starting pitcher. He seems to prefer to take a more proactive approach to avoiding leaks to the media by laying his cards on the table up front. Definitely a contrast to the cloak and dagger style of Theo and Ben.
 

NDame616

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Why in the world would other GMs/agents take what DD is saying publicly as the truth? You don't think Cueto's agent is going to interact ONE MORE TIME with DD before he signs? Or if for some reason the White Sox decide to trade Sale, they won't engage the Red Sox?

"Well, we were thinking about possibly trading player X to the Sox, who showed interest a few weeks ago, but did you read Abraham's tweet? The Sox are done with major moves now...let's see what Cashman will offer instead I guess"

Sometimes it is the truth and is what happens, but let's not pull a "my word is my bond" about what a GM says in December....
 

GlucoDoc

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As has been pointed out repeatedly, what DD said, DD did. He has some credibility now with his public statements matching his actions. And if that is the case, and he does, in reality, mean it (which makes sense, as has also been pointed out repeatedly by many), then it would theoretically take a really favorable offer for a signing or trade to make him change. And if that happens, he makes it clear that it was a deal he could not resist. I agree that we should not think his word is bond. But we should think it is most likely correct, barring any surprisingly attractive opportunities. Thus, if someone called him with an offer, it had really really be good.
 

phenweigh

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Wonder why he comes out and says that. If the rest of the field thinks a team with money, or prospects to trade, etc. could be involved in future transactions, might they act differently? Maybe I'm still thinking too much of the cold war days, post Y2K, with the Yankees.
According to an AP article, there is a second sentence:
Dombrowski said Wednesday during a conference call. "I think our major moves are done. But when you go into the winter meetings, you never know what happens."

He's clearly intending to engage at the winter meetings.
 

PrometheusWakefield

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Also, this team is pretty much ready to go and there's no glaring need that requires a major move.

Although I wonder how many others had the same reaction that I did to this:

According to ESPN's Buster Olney, the Padres "continue to try to push James Shields in the trade market."
Shields posted an underwhelming 3.91 ERA (93 ERA+) for San Diego in 2015 -- the first year of a four-year, $75 million free agent deal. The soon-to-be 34-year-old is due $63 million over the next three seasons and has been in decline from his former ace-like status since 2012. It might be tough for the Friars to find a decent return package in such a loaded free agent class for starting pitchers.
Namely: I'd love a deal where we give up a minor prospect or two to make Sandoval for Shields happen. Shields had an interesting year in 2015 but could help bolster the rotation a bit and to me losing Sandoval in favor of some combination of Holt/Shaw/Swihart would be addition by substraction.
 

phenweigh

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Also, this team is pretty much ready to go and there's no glaring need that requires a major move.

Although I wonder how many others had the same reaction that I did to this:


Namely: I'd love a deal where we give up a minor prospect or two to make Sandoval for Shields happen. Shields had an interesting year in 2015 but could help bolster the rotation a bit and to me losing Sandoval in favor of some combination of Holt/Shaw/Swihart would be addition by substraction.
Unless I missed something, I haven't heard a word from or about Pablo this offseason. Is he working out and losing weight, or getting fatter? I haven't given up on him enough yet to agree that simply losing him is addition by subtraction. Plus, I want no part of James Shields.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Namely: I'd love a deal where we give up a minor prospect or two to make Sandoval for Shields happen. Shields had an interesting year in 2015 but could help bolster the rotation a bit and to me losing Sandoval in favor of some combination of Holt/Shaw/Swihart would be addition by substraction.
Seems pretty fantastical to me. The Pads are shopping Shields in large part to reduce payroll (like they did in trading Kimbrel). Can't see why they'd take Sandoval back as that wouldn't result in any savings at all unless the Red Sox pay a significant portion of Sandoval's contract. The end product would be essentially paying, what, $110-120M ($63 owed + ~$50-60M of the $77M owed to Panda) for three years of Shields. No thank you. Shields isn't clear-cut better than what they have now in terms of middle of the rotation talent.
 

Bowlerman9

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Namely: I'd love a deal where we give up a minor prospect or two to make Sandoval for Shields happen. Shields had an interesting year in 2015 but could help bolster the rotation a bit and to me losing Sandoval in favor of some combination of Holt/Shaw/Swihart would be addition by substraction.
Shields put up a 93 ERA+ last year. How does he bolster the rotation?
 
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As long as we are not worried about the luxury tax threshold, isn't James Shields a great "buy low" candidate to bolster the rotation? Seems like absorbing his contract would be a great way to acquire a durable starter with ace potential on a contract (3 years/$65 million) that seems palatable by this winter's standards. Always loved/hated him in Tampa.

Edit: Apologies to those above who already brought up Shields's name. My bad.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Well, IF the Sox after one horrendous year have decided that Pablo's unlikely to bounceback, then trading him for another bad but potentially more useful contract makes sense. Is that Shields? Tough to say, but I was one who wished the team had been in on him at the price SD paid last year. Shields DOES cost more per year than Panda, even if Panda is signed for longer, so I could see SD entertaining the idea, especially if we paid off some of Sandoval's excess cost in year 4.

But I wouldn't go crazy over it. Shields doesn't really solve much about our rotation other than handedness, and it would require that an existing piece get moved.
 

grimshaw

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The only thing the Red Sox and Padres match up with is with two shitty contracts per team, and last I checked the Pads had no interest whatsoever in bringing in a subsidized Sandoval. Can't find the source, but it was shortly after the deadline when they had been discussing a big trade. From what we know now, it could have been about Kimbrel.

The only way we swap bad contracts with them is if Kemp is involved - and good god, no thank you.
 

johnnywayback

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What is the evidence that James Shields is still a good pitcher? Why do we think he's an improvement on Wade Miley (whom he would bump from the rotation)? And given that the team has clearly concluded that Brock Holt is best deployed as a five-day-a-week utility guy, who would play 3B?
 

chrisfont9

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It's not that different, really, than when he came out and flatly stated that he was targeting a 4th outfielder and a frontline starting pitcher. He seems to prefer to take a more proactive approach to avoiding leaks to the media by laying his cards on the table up front. Definitely a contrast to the cloak and dagger style of Theo and Ben.
It's an interesting approach. Sort of a story-ender. Considering all of the other GMs (team presidents, etc) already know basically what your team is trying to do, I can't see a downside to this approach with the public. Even if you're after someone who you don't eventually get, it's not like that wasn't going to be reported anyway.
 

kazuneko

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What is the evidence that James Shields is still a good pitcher? Why do we think he's an improvement on Wade Miley (whom he would bump from the rotation)? And given that the team has clearly concluded that Brock Holt is best deployed as a five-day-a-week utility guy, who would play 3B?
I think it was previously suggested that some combination of Holt, Shaw, and Swihart could man 3b - any one of whom could foreseeably be better than Panda (probably the worst regular in baseball last season) next year. Of course, if the Padres are only interested in dumping salary it's not clear why they would be willing to take on Sandoval (unless perhaps the Sox took on Kemp as well- which I can't imagine them doing)...
 

Pilgrim

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there is also this

http://nesn.com/2015/11/dave-dombrowski-meeting-with-red-soxs-hanley-ramirez-went-great/

“I said we’€™re counting on him for big things next year,” said Dombrowski, who added that Ramirez is feeling no pain in his previously injured shoulder. “We’€™re counting on him to be our first baseman. I asked him if he thought he could play first base. He said, ‘I can play shortstop, I can play third base, I can play first base.’ He seemed comfortable. Now when I say that, all of this stuff will be action-based.”
I don't think Hanley would be anything but a pretty bad 3b at this stage but at least A. I think he can still hit the ball and B. You'd have only one potential terrible IF rather than two.

Chances are slim that they can ditch either player, but Sandoval is the contract they should really want to get out of.
 

NDame616

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I don't see how Shields would be any upgrade from any pitcher on the Red Sox.

I suppose he COULD be better than Kelly, but the contract and the fact that odds are he's either worse or marginally better than our entire rotation.

Although, he does have an opt out after next season, so he could pitch really well for us, use the opt out, and we are off the hook for the balance of his contract! (kidding)

I had no interest in the Sox signing him last year, and all he's done since is go to a pitchers park in the NL and seen most of his stats trend in the wrong way. No thanks.
 

Montana Fan

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Pete Abraham ‏@PeteAbe 24m24 minutes ago

Dombrowski said the #RedSox were likely done with “major moves” this offseason
Wonder why he comes out and says that. If the rest of the field thinks a team with money, or prospects to trade, etc. could be involved in future transactions, might they act differently? Maybe I'm still thinking too much of the cold war days, post Y2K, with the Yankees.
IMO his message is that the Sox are mostly set and are now in a position of power wrt trade talks. Anyone interested in a Red Sox player or prospect can put together an offer. See you at the General Manager's meeting.
 

soxhop411

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“@JonHeymanCBS: Red sox have had some contact on old friend Mike Napoli. Mariners, Indians, rangers, maybe pirates, others.”
 

nvalvo

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I don't see how Shields would be any upgrade from any pitcher on the Red Sox.

I suppose he COULD be better than Kelly, but the contract and the fact that odds are he's either worse or marginally better than our entire rotation.

Although, he does have an opt out after next season, so he could pitch really well for us, use the opt out, and we are off the hook for the balance of his contract! (kidding)

I had no interest in the Sox signing him last year, and all he's done since is go to a pitchers park in the NL and seen most of his stats trend in the wrong way. No thanks.
I totally agree.

Miley, 24-28: 49-46, 832.1 IP, 101 ERA+, 3.80 FIP.
Shields, 24-28: 56-51, 977.2 IP, 102 ERA+, 4.03 FIP.

Shields had 21 starts at age 24, while Miley had 7.
 

TheYaz67

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Well, Papelbon has filed a grievance against the Nats for the 4 days pay he lost after they suspended him last September (for choking Harper in the dugout), so he is definitely available if Dombrowski is interested - Nats would likely accept a bucket of balls in return for the salary/nutjob relief....
 
I'd be interested in hearing thoughts about a pursuit of Shelby Miller. Potential price tag etc.
Some of what I have read says they'd need a major league ready arm and a bat (though the most recent thing I read didn't say MLB ready bat).
Looking at their depth chart needs and prospects, something like Owens, Travis Shaw and Mererro may get it done.
Their pipeline is pretty thin with Olivera (30 year old Cuban) looking more like an outfielder now and no infielder in their top 20 above the age of 21 (one 21yr old the rest are 17-19).
Thoughts?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Well, Papelbon has filed a grievance against the Nats for the 4 days pay he lost after they suspended him last September (for choking Harper in the dugout), so he is definitely available if Dombrowski is interested - Nats would likely accept a bucket of balls in return for the salary/nutjob relief....
Why would Dombrowski be interested in bringing in a malcontent who very likely wouldn't handle the "demotion" to a set-up role very well (because he isn't closing with Kimbrel on the roster), especially in a walk year in which he'd want to do what he can to earn one more payday contract?
 

Green Monster

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Well, Papelbon has filed a grievance against the Nats for the 4 days pay he lost after they suspended him last September (for choking Harper in the dugout), so he is definitely available if Dombrowski is interested - Nats would likely accept a bucket of balls in return for the salary/nutjob relief....
PASS..............You never have too many baseballs
 

TheYaz67

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Why would Dombrowski be interested in bringing in a malcontent who very likely wouldn't handle the "demotion" to a set-up role very well (because he isn't closing with Kimbrel on the roster), especially in a walk year in which he'd want to do what he can to earn one more payday contract?
Well, I don't think he would be too interested (because of those reasons mostly), but at the same time he is still an "above average" bullpen arm that would be available without costing a prospect in return, or require a multi-year commitment. He also doesn't "need" to be the closer in the way he did before (since it triggered the option year from his Philly contract) so if the alternative is ending up closing for another shitty team with no playoff hopes or being the set up guy for a competitive Sox, he may decide the Sox scenario is better. Nats are likely going to dump him somewhere after last season's fiasco.....
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Well, I don't think he would be too interested (because of those reasons mostly), but at the same time he is still an "above average" bullpen arm that would be available without costing a prospect in return, or require a multi-year commitment. He also doesn't "need" to be the closer in the way he did before (since it triggered the option year from his Philly contract) so if the alternative is ending up closing for another shitty team with no playoff hopes or being the set up guy for a competitive Sox, he may decide the Sox scenario is better. Nats are likely going to dump him somewhere after last season's fiasco.....
Oh, I get what is attractive about acquiring Papelbon, but he still has a limited no-trade-clause and there are teams out there who can contend and use him as their closer in the process.

This is a guy who has tied his entire worth to the save statistic. He's boasted that he wants to be better than Mariano when it's all said and done. Part of his agreeing to waive his NTC for the Nationals was that he'd be the closer rather than set up for Storen, who was doing a fine job at the time. He has a ring already so I just don't see where he'd be more willing to take a back seat in the bullpen just to be a part of a "winner" when he's in the last year of his deal and has a chance to cash in one more time as a free agent. While relievers are getting paid more than ever before, guys with saves on their resume get paid more.
 

Hank Scorpio

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I'd be interested in hearing thoughts about a pursuit of Shelby Miller. Potential price tag etc.
Some of what I have read says they'd need a major league ready arm and a bat (though the most recent thing I read didn't say MLB ready bat).
Looking at their depth chart needs and prospects, something like Owens, Travis Shaw and Mererro may get it done.
Their pipeline is pretty thin with Olivera (30 year old Cuban) looking more like an outfielder now and no infielder in their top 20 above the age of 21 (one 21yr old the rest are 17-19).
Thoughts?
I'm a bit leery of Miller for a couple of reasons: First, I think he'd cost another top prospect on top of the package you listed, possibly Devers, for instance - which is a ridiculous price. This is an assumption on my part, but the Braves are probably shopping him as a #1A/2 starter, which brings me to my second point; he isn't. He walks a lot of guys, and has vastly outpaced his FIP and xFIP every year. Overall, he's a solid rotation arm, but I don't think he's necessarily an upgrade over Porcello, Miley, Buchholz or Rodriguez. Even if he is, he's not enough of one to justify dealing top prospects. Have to think the Braves are looking for an overpay here.
 

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Another way it makes sense is if the Mariners are floating the idea. The Red Sox don't necessarily have to be interested, but they're not gonna not listen.
 
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I don't think it's unreasonable to trade one of Buchholz, Miley, or Kelly in return for some prospects. This team could use some right-handed pitchers close to the show in AA or AAA, and might one or two of those guys serve as better depth than, say, wedging Joe Kelly into the bullpen? I mean, you could make a case for it being better in the long term and solving a problem in the short term.
 

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deep inside Guido territory
NASHVILLE — The Red Sox likely will be keeping a close eye on Edwin Encarnacion news the next few months.

According to multiple major league sources, Encarnacion will commit to becoming a free agent if no extension is worked out with the Blue Jays by the end of spring training.

This is notable for the Red Sox since sources have suggested there would be significant mutual interest between the first baseman/designated hitter and the Sox if Encarnacion did become a free agent following the 2016 season. He was a favorite of Sox manager John Farrell when both were in Toronto.

Encarnacion, who turns 33 in January, potentially could slide in to replace David Ortiz at the designated hitter position, depending on how Hanley Ramirezprogresses at first base.

The representatives for Encarnacion — who will make $10 million in 2016, the final year of what has become a four-year deal — will meet with the Blue Jays at the winter meetings over the next few days to discuss the slugger’s contract status.
http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2015/12/07/source-edwin-encarnacion-setting-spring-training-deadline-for-new-deal-to-be-done/
 

flymrfreakjar

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Well if they're thinking of making a deal for EE, then a trade to SEA of Hanley+pitching makes some semblance of sense at least. More sense than the SEA pitching rumors did anyway, which was next to none.
 

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According to one major league source familiar with the situation, however, it seems unlikely the Red Sox are motivated to move Kelly. The 27-year-old righty is arbitration-eligible for the first time, having coming off a season which was highlighted by an eight-start run that saw him go 8-0 with a 2.59 ERA.

Miley, conversely, is under team control through 2018, when he can make a maximum of $12 million via team option. The lefty is scheduled to earn $6 million in 2016.

Buchholz’s upside would be intriguing for any team, especially considering he would come with a $13.5 million team option for 2017. But the righty hasn’t pitched since early July, ending his season with a couple of bullpen sessions.
http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2015/12/07/source-red-sox-dont-seem-likely-to-move-joe-kelly/
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Well if they're thinking of making a deal for EE, then a trade to SEA of Hanley+pitching makes some semblance of sense at least. More sense than the SEA pitching rumors did anyway, which was next to none.
Where is there anything suggesting a trade for Encarnacion? That story is suggesting that they're monitoring the situation in the case that he doesn't sign an extension and becomes a free agent next winter, he could be a prime candidate to bring in as an Ortiz replacement at DH/1B.
 

soxhop411

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Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN 18m18 minutes ago
Source said this morning pegged odds of a Jose Fernandez trade at 1%. Now: "I'd push that into the 40s(%)." MIA can get a lot in return.
im not sure if Dombrowski is still intersted but the sox would be one of the few teams that could afford to trade for him
 

peritas

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I think the new sheriff in town really believes that you build a team by accumulating as many superstars as possible. That's what he did to a certain extent in Detroit and what he appears to be doing again in Boston. I think the strategy fits the Sox' well due to their budget and current depth at the farm. I'm excited.
 

MikeM

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I think the new sheriff in town really believes that you build a team by accumulating as many superstars as possible. That's what he did to a certain extent in Detroit and what he appears to be doing again in Boston. I think the strategy fits the Sox' well due to their budget and current depth at the farm. I'm excited.
I wouldn't go that far with it. Although seeing him spend the extra money on a David Price instead of trying to get overly value digging cute on a 5/$90m Shark deal is certainly refreshing imo.

Definitely put the early concerns over his bullpen building track record to bed, that's for sure.
 

peritas

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Certainly a change in strategy from the last regime. We now have a top starter, at least 1 and maybe 3 top releivers, a top ss, a top outfielder and potentially a top catcher. Dom is building a powerhouse. We also have depth and strength in the minors. I'm impressed.
 

E5 Yaz

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mlbtr:
  • The Cubs, D’Backs, Dodgers, and Red Sox are staying in touch with the Braves regarding (Shelby) Miller, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Well, he's done everything else just exactly as he said he was going to this offseason. I guess I'll have to take his word that the team's about done with the 25-man roster.

Since the Sox will have a rotation stacked with LHSP, I would have liked to pick up a LHRP better than Ross for those inevitable 6-8th inning PH appearances, but since Koji and Layne are both dominant against them, I guess there's not really not too much to fear from lineups who stack all their RHH to start.
Or, you know, not so much. So what's next after Miley then, Trader Dave?

By my rough calculation, Sox AAV stands at $175MM guaranteed for 12 players + 3 x arb-eligible (Taz, Kelly, Ross) + 10 x minimum salary + 15 x 40-man + benefits.

It's hard to believe after paying the Price price, but the Sox could actually theoretically squeak under the LT cap, simply by:
  • replacing Buchholz with an arb-1 guy who profiles as a legit #2+ (think Harvey, Fernandez, Carrasco, etc);
  • dropping Ross in favor of Escobar or Elias or Johnson; and then
  • trading Tazawa for milb depth in favor of a no-holds-barred RP steel cage match in spring training among the 40-man bullpen depth.
Or you know, DDski could go balls-out on John Henry's cash.

After all, it's not my money.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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It's hard to believe after paying the Price price, but the Sox could actually theoretically squeak under the LT cap, simply by:
  • replacing Buchholz with an arb-1 guy who profiles as a legit #2+ (think Harvey, Fernandez*, Carrasco, etc);
My problem with this strategy is that I think we're nearing the point where the cure is not better than the disease. I.e., any pitcher we can get without either really decimating the farm or surrendering one of our young cornerstone players is probably not an upgrade over Buchholz, except perhaps in reliability.

*Fernandez is not a #2 in any known universe. Harvey, borderline, and probably only borderline because he pitches for a team that has two other guys who are just as good as him or better. Carrasco, sure. Or that Miller guy that E5Y just posted about.
 

soxhop411

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And we have our answer as to why the Sox broke off talks with the Reds

“@alexspeier: Sources: Red Sox backed away from Chapman trade talks in Nov due to domestic violence allegations https://t.co/uiihhaNBPS


The Red Sox had been exploring a possible trade for lefthander Aroldis Chapman from the Reds in November until the team discovered in its background check that the Reds reliever had allegedly been involved in a domestic dispute, according to multiple industry sources.