The centerpiece of Ryan's argument seems to be that it's not a complete pipe dream if Ainge became determined to get him and made a huge offer. Something that makes MBPC really uncomfortable while holding onto the 5 best players (KW/MS/JT/JB/DT).
Stop hoarding TP(E) - the what should the Celtics do with the TPE thread
- Thread starter NomarsFool
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How would an offer that excludes our 5 best players make us uncomfortable? Is there anyone who wouldn't let Toronto choose 2-3 guys from the Langford/TL/Nesmith/PP group along with picks for OG, a guy who would be a perfect fit next to the Jay's?
To me it's a simple thing. Hield isn't going to be the top, or 2nd option in our offense. He likely isn't going to be the 3rd even (Kemba), so that to me makes it unlikely that his shooting offsets all his myriad weaknesses compared to Smart (Ball handling, playmaking, defense, effort). To me I think I'd more than willingly sacrifice a bit of shooting from my 4th option in crunch time, for an elite defender who is also better at getting the ball to the guys I actually want taking the bulk of the shots.
We were uncomfortable that Ryan Gomes was included in the KG trade. In other words, we would find a way.
Why on god's green earth are the Raptors dealing OG Anunoby? He's young (23), leaping, signed to an incredibly attractive contract (top 10 value deal). Is there some sort of money situation in play here, that makes our TPE their only choice? he makes $16MM this season, so I doubt that's it.
Obviously, you go for OG, but I'm 99.9% sure the Raptors are NOT trading him to the Celtics for either/or on Neismith/Romeo. This starts at TL + PP + Neismith + Romeo + picks. And Danny does that in a heartbeat
Sacramento dealing Hield was based on some kind of motivation from a new GM. While I wouldn't move Smart for him. (Smart should be wearing the C on his chest as far as I'm concerned) A new winning environment & Hields corner3 shooting would dovetail nicely with the rest of the Celtics.
I get he's a better shooter. But Bogdan is better at literally everything else, so as I noted before people are way over-indexing on shooting.
Agreed, don't see it. And worth noting that the reason the Kings are willing to trade Hield (and previously benched him) is that he's pretty bad at everything on the court other than shooting. Three-point shooting is really valuable...and it also isn't everything.
The nature of modern NBA basketball is such that, if a guy can at least hold up defensively, elite high-volume 3-point shooting is something you should overindex on. Particularly if you have 3-4 good playmakers under contract for awhile.
My pipe dream with the TPE is OG. However, if we can get an elite 3-point shooter that could space the floor for the Jays/Kemba, that would be ideal. But, I am willing to wait for the market to develop and see what's available at the deadline.
Yeah, I would like to see the support to that declarative statement after looking at the advance stats. They look pretty comparable to me. I think $18.6M for Hield’s skill set is pretty comparable to the recent Harris and Bogdan deals so his contract really isn’t a net negative.
By RPM, Bogdan is +1.01 defensively and Hield is -2.62.
By reputation Bogdan isn't quite that good, but Hield is pretty uniformly regarded as being that bad.
By reputation Bogdan isn't quite that good, but Hield is pretty uniformly regarded as being that bad.
Bogdon and Buddy played a lot of minutes on Sacramento together over the last 3 seasons.
Hield was markedly better than Bogdan according to +/-, ON/OFF, WS, VORP and BPM
So using Bogdon as a salary comp to Hield is more than fair
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Yea, I can't imagine the C's are moving Smart for a multitude of reasons.
How about TT + Langford + Celtic 1st for Hield's 50% corner 3s?
I was bummed that Zizic got added to the Kyrie trade.
Is Hield really an elite shooter? He was below 40% last year and is lower still so far this year.
I mean, he shot 39.4% last year and is just below 41% for his career (21st all-time and 8th among active players). So, yes. He is an elite shooter.
41% last 3+ years and in Boston he'd get a ton more open looks due to the Jay's attracting so much attention. I think he's pretty elite but clearly there is a SSS dip so far this year. I see what Joe Harris is doing to defenses for the Nets with all that freedom and now I want the Celtics to have that.
And at ridiculous volume. 5th in attempts in 2019, 2nd in 2020, 3rd this year.
Honestly given how much he's still owed (roughly $70 million depending on how much '21 ends up being), how little D he plays, and how much of a clubhouse pouter he is, I would be asking the Kings how much it's worth to them to get rid of him for nothing. He's getting paid the money that we're all terrified of Boston having to pay Marcus, only he brings next to nothing to the table for it.
yea. I see the environment improving his moodiness & his corner 3pt shooting being elite (where Brad would stick him)
BUT I wouldn't risk the Celtic chemistry if he wouldn't be happy being a well-compensated 4th banana.
If Danny avoids the repeater this season, how aggressive do you think they will be with the CAP in the following years?
I'm sure somebody asked, but why would the Kings want Smart again? I'd be all over Hield. This board favors math for obvious reasons and I think math usually sides with defense so people overrate it (on here, not elsewhere).
With Fox/Haliburton, I can see why the Kings would look to move Hield but I think they'd want a bigger wing.
I've been preaching awhile along with others but this team really should be looking for that long term 3rd piece to pair up with the Jays. That piece should be an elite shooter at either stretch big/wing or SG (tall for the position, athletic, like Zach Lavine who isn't happening but someone like him would be perfect too).
Or Ben Simmons. Who's completely different but would fit in perfectly. That's not happening either though.
With Fox/Haliburton, I can see why the Kings would look to move Hield but I think they'd want a bigger wing.
I've been preaching awhile along with others but this team really should be looking for that long term 3rd piece to pair up with the Jays. That piece should be an elite shooter at either stretch big/wing or SG (tall for the position, athletic, like Zach Lavine who isn't happening but someone like him would be perfect too).
Or Ben Simmons. Who's completely different but would fit in perfectly. That's not happening either though.
Why are we even talking about sending out salary that we don’t have to? From what I’ve learned from most of you they would use the TPE as the “salary filler” in the deal. Sure I know a lot of you want to get rid of TT right now, but he’d be an almost 10 mil expiring contract you could use in a deal this offseason
I don't think that's what anyone is saying. If you trade for someone, you need to trade that team something that they want in return. Sometimes that's a player, not a pick. That's what the speculation is here imo. Smart has value on that deal, as do some of the kids.
A team that is expected to be prominent in the trade market picture, rival teams expect: The New Orleans Pelicans. The franchise is off to an uneven 5-10 start to the season. New Orleans has been receiving calls about the availability of Lonzo Ball and JJ Redick and has shown an openness to discussing trades around both with interested teams, sources tell The Athletic. A move would create a clearer pathway for young guards Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Kira Lewis in the Pelicans’ rotation.
https://theathletic.com/2347020/2021/01/26/nba-trade-rumors-news-pelicans-lonzo-ball/
https://theathletic.com/2347020/2021/01/26/nba-trade-rumors-news-pelicans-lonzo-ball/
Redick would be a nice alternative to Hield. Expiring contract and can't imagine the acquisition cost would be too bad. Somehow only shooting 30% from 3 so far this year but I'm sure he hasn't forgotten how to shoot. Have to figure a lot of teams would be in on him.
Trading Smart for Hield is insane. Depending on the metric you use (unless it is shooting percentage alone) the players are either roughly even in value, or Smart is much better. In addition, Smart has an established track record of playing better in big games/moments and is the emotional center of the current team. You don’t trade Smart for someone who is, best case, just as good but in different ways, is older, and costs more. You don’t even think about making that trade.
Also, to the extent people think this team needs more offense to compete, I disagree. Between Kemba, Tatum, and Brown, we have more than enough offense. That’s probably the second best offensive trio that any team in the league has (behind the Nets). Trading defense for more offense is not how this team will win its next title.
Also, to the extent people think this team needs more offense to compete, I disagree. Between Kemba, Tatum, and Brown, we have more than enough offense. That’s probably the second best offensive trio that any team in the league has (behind the Nets). Trading defense for more offense is not how this team will win its next title.
You can see his responses on twitter.
Why I thought it was a worthwhile thing to discuss is because while OG is clearly a great asset and player, he's not a center piece. He's not even likely to be a #2. But he's absolutely perfect as the 3rd/4th best player on a championship team. And if you're the Raptors and looking at your roster and realizing you need to make BIG MOVES to become a serious contender then you need to think about what avenues there are for such a big change. Perhaps they'd rather move Siakam. Perhaps they'd rather hope they can sign someone in free agency. Or perhaps they'd be happy getting a package worthy of a perennial all-star for OG -- the type of assets more likely to be able to flip for the next Harden/PG3/Butler centerpiece opportunity that comes along.
There aren't many teams who can trade for OG because of the contract structures/poison pills. But the Celtics could. This is the TPE thread. The Celtics dont want the next Harden/PG3/Butler I don't think -- they want something exactly like OG. Perhaps they'd be interested in moving "all-in" for a guy like that.
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Oh totally, I get that. But when people are including TT in these trade ideas that kind of blows the “giving something up they want” in return. And a bad use of TT as salary to boot.
Also, this being the TPE thread, I would think we’d want them looking to trade picks. If the team for some reason was willing to deal Smart, that would be a deal not involving the TPE
What happens if 2021 playoff Kemba looks like 2020 playoff Kemba? It's great that he looks better these first few games but I certainly hope Ainge is not banking on the health of Kemba's knees. There remains considerable risk there. This team doesn't need more offense to compete. They're already competing. But they certainly might need more offense to get out of an Eastern Conference that has Durant/Harden/Kyrie and, if fortunate enough to do so, to win a title against one of the LA teams.
I agree on Anunoby, I loved him coming out of high school and I wished that Boston had been able to acquire a first to draft him (he was considered a late lottery pick until an injury tanked his draft value). He and Marcus would be the ideal guys to fit in around the Jay-Crew and Kemba.
Hield just isn't good enough to pay for. The Kings are going to wait a long time for him to become a positive asset (and the older/slower he gets the less value he's going to have). If the Kings are willing to trade a first for a second to unload the deal, fine. Otherwise I'm not touching a guy that gives back every point he scores and more on the defensive end.
"Offense" is too general a category. If you have 3 elite playmakers, you absolutely need to surround them with the right offensive pieces in order to maximize their value.
I'm fine if people disagree that Hield is that guy, but I think that you're sleeping in general on how big a deal it would be to have an elite shooter who was a slightly below-average defender in Smart's spot.
That 2017 draft was something else. Was just looking at it and man, there are good players all over the place in the draft.
Can make a decent team from these slots
Picks 1-10
Fox, Ball, Tatum, Isaac, Markanen
Picks 11-20
Mitchell, Monk, Kenard, Collins, Bam
Picks 21-30
White, Hart, OG, Kuzma, Allen
Can make a decent team from these slots
Picks 1-10
Fox, Ball, Tatum, Isaac, Markanen
Picks 11-20
Mitchell, Monk, Kenard, Collins, Bam
Picks 21-30
White, Hart, OG, Kuzma, Allen
I can understand that argument and Smart for Hield clearly isn't happening. But, if I can get Hield for some combination of Langford and a late round pick, I'm doing it, in a vacuum. Obviously, there are luxury tax reasons and other reasons why that likely wouldn't happen but I think Hield could certainly help this team. I would gladly settle for Hield-lite in Redick.
If Hield were a slightly below average defender people wouldn't be laughing at the thought of sacrificing assets for him. Unfortunately for the Kings Nesmith might be a better defender than Buddy.
I always enjoy our people waltzing around him like a traffic cone, but I've seen fewer than ten of his games that weren't against us. He seems pretty bad at on ball and team defense to my eyes, and not from a lack of effort on his part. He's active, just bad.
Maybe he's dealing with an injury, but otherwise Bjelica, who's an intriguing player, doesn't seem to fit into the Kings' plan this season. He's barely playing:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bjeline01.html
we want to avoid repeater tax, so we should only take in ~13MM in additional salary in season.
TT (9.2) + Romeo (3.6) offsets Buddy's (24.7) salary hit to ~$12MM this season
I like TL/Theis much more than TT and believe he is very replaceable (at a cheaper price).
Tristan dampens the value of Romeo & a late 1st IMO
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Apologies if I came off harsh. I always like "what if/availability" scenarios as far as players.
Agreed, Danny should use all his superpowers to add OG around JayCrew
You're right this is the TPE thread and that's definitely noteworthy. Thanks for posting
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Oh, I didn’t realize they were that close there so that makes way more sense. I think my brain was ignoring Kenna’s contract
I also didn’t realize Hield was making that much. I feel like there has to be players comparable to him for half the price(at work, can’t look it up right now)
Barnes is the guy that I think is the best fit for Boston as the big wing with the jack-of-all-trades game. He can drain a few treys, grab some boards, make some passes. Not much to speak of as a defender, though. He has the tools to be an above averagish defender, he's just never harnessed them. Maybe Boston could get it out of him.
I'd be happier if Romeo returned and showed some real growth on the offensive end to tempt the Raptors into an Anunoby for Langford/picks deal.
Buddy's contract escalates down every season, so that's why there is a bit of confusion. ESPN trade machine has it at $24.7MM this year
Some used Bogdon as a comp ($18MM/yr), I believe Hield is a hair better. BUT there is a fair amount of divergence on Buddy around here. I see a good fit as a catch and shoot sniper on the Celtics. I like Romeo but HATE Tristan Thompson (he would give the King's salary filler).
The Kings are worth keeping an eye on since they have a new GM that may not like Vlade's previous work. They just won the draft with Haliburton which will probably embolden them to move on from the cantankerous Hield, who has struggled out of the gate.
I think we’re not going to see eye to eye here because I strongly believe that if you added a shooter with mediocre defense to our roster, Smart would start and close games over that player. I agree that a sharpshooter would have value, but it’s not value that displaces Smart, it is value that displaces Teague or Ojeleye.
Put differently, I think a lot of people are stuck on the model of”How do you build a team around a player like Lebron, Giannis, or Doncic?” because so much of recent NBA history has been about that question. None of our 3 stars are elite at getting to the rim with questionable shots. All of them are shooters. That makes us look more like the Warriors model, where the role players you need are elite defenders who can keep the ball moving and make plays for your stars. Smart is one of those players, like Iggy or Dray, who fits our roster structure perfectly. He’s exactly what we need. (This isn’t to deny that another shooter would help our bench. It would. But only if it comes as an addition, not at the expense of our 4th best player.)
Agree with your overall point but I would say Jaylen Brown is elite at getting to the rim now. I just watched him have more simple blow by's to the hoop leading to an easy layup in three games than I think I have seen any Celtic player have ever (slight exaggeration).