Wilt ChamberlainThat bullet is one that you get to fire once in the period of Brown and Tatum’s salary control. Whom do you propose Ainge acquire in that capacity?
Wilt ChamberlainThat bullet is one that you get to fire once in the period of Brown and Tatum’s salary control. Whom do you propose Ainge acquire in that capacity?
Kelly Oubre sucks. His name was used as a metaphor for the Warriors ownership spending well over the cap. I'm sorry I ever used itKelly Oubre is not a difference maker, at least in terms of basketball value. He is roughly a league average defender, a below average offensive player and he may be one of the most fundamentally unsound rotation players in the league. I think GS would gladly trade him to anyone for something. Boston should want no part of him imo.
Yes. I'm aware of how a TPE works as a portal.The TPE is merely the portal into which to acquire a player. The C’s will need to have assets in order to convince another team to trade a difference-maker into that portal.
The other thing to add is that Boston is actually shopping for different things than other contenders. Every team needs more wings but if a two way big on a bad team became available, none of the Lakers, Clippers, Jazz or 76ers are likely to play in that market. You would think that Boston would check in at least.Yes. I'm aware of how a TPE works as a portal.
You skipped right on past the point I was making, where you argue the Celtics can't possibly get anyone that can help because all they have are low first round picks to offer. But, if most of their competition for players can't even offer those low first round picks, that puts a Celtics package offering their picks ahead of those teams.
Ah, but would the Raptors trade him to a division rival?Wilt Chamberlain
I think the Celtics can get someone who would help with the TPE and their assets. A noncontending team like the Bulls with an overpriced expiring contract such as Otto Porter might be happy to extract an asset rather than pay that salary. I just don’t see that path as a way to acquire John Collins or some established cornerstone player as others are suggesting.Yes. I'm aware of how a TPE works as a portal.
You skipped right on past the point I was making, where you argue the Celtics can't possibly get anyone that can help because all they have are low first round picks to offer. But, if most of their competition for players can't even offer those low first round picks, that puts a Celtics package offering their picks ahead of those teams.
Nets parted with LaVert and Jarrett Allen in that deal. Those are two players who'd be in the C's top six or seven.Are the Celtics assets that much worse than those the Nets used to acquire Harden? Or the Lakers to get Davis? Or the Clippers to get George? None of those draft picks are going to be meaningful in the near future either.
The Celtics don't need a Harden, so I guess I don't understand the sense of fatalism regarding the Celtics existing assets.Nets parted with LaVert and Jarrett Allen in that deal. Those are two players who'd be in the C's top six or seven.
Clearly the C's should be able to upgrade their roster, especially the bench, without breaking up their core. But I'm not sure someone like John Collins is a realistic target for Boston if offered only low-value draft picks, the TPE and unproven players.The Celtics don't need a Harden, so I guess I don't understand the sense of fatalism regarding the Celtics existing assets.
Hey, a few more games like last night and our draft picks are no longer low value...Clearly the C's should be able to upgrade their roster, especially the bench, without breaking up their core. But I'm not sure someone like John Collins is a realistic target for Boston if offered only low-value draft picks, the TPE and unproven players.
YesAre the Celtics assets that much worse than those the Nets used to acquire Harden? Or the Lakers to get Davis? Or the Clippers to get George?
As would SGA, Ingram, etc.Nets parted with LaVert and Jarrett Allen in that deal. Those are two players who'd be in the C's top six or seven.
Maybe this is Danny's plan. Make it look like we are collapsing and our future picks will be in the lottery as we approach the trade deadline.Hey, a few more games like last night and our draft picks are no longer low value...
Since the Celtics operate with fiscal prudence*, Danny should probably figure out a Kemba plan over the next 6 weeks, prior to using cap/assets for a non-needle mover like Harrison Barnes. Try to move Kemba at the deadline (for expirings) or at the latest this Summer. Assets will be needed there (~Horford 2020 deal). Then proceed with the $28.5MM TPE, which could be used in multiple ways (add an asset).Ah, but would the Raptors trade him to a division rival?
I just don’t see that path as a way to acquire John Collins or some established cornerstone player as others are suggesting.
I am a fan of getting Collins, but this seems like way excessive value to give for 1/2 year + his restricted rights.For example, Atlanta getting unprotected 1sts/pick swap + Grant + Nesmith is much better than they'll get in an S&T.
agreed, was trying to exhibit that the Celtics have the assets to make JC happen and have assets left to deal with Kemba's contractI am a fan of getting Collins, but this seems like way excessive value to give for 1/2 year + his restricted rights.
This ownership has consistently spent to acquire and retain talent. I think the key for Ainge is trying to time the tax situation to coincide with the Jays’ championship window.Since the Celtics operate with fiscal prudence*
Would you be comfortable then trading the ‘21/‘23/‘25 picks with ’22/‘24 swaps, like the Davis/Holiday deals, and then give Collins a Jaylenesque contract in the 4 year/$120 million range?To answer your question, the game-changer I'd want is John Collins. He doesn't impact the Hayward TPE and doesn't trip the repeater. I believe Atlanta will lose him by this Summer. IMO the C's have the assets to make it happen. For example, Atlanta getting unprotected 1sts/pick swap + Grant + Nesmith is much better than they'll get in an S&T. Not sure what other contenders are offering for JC, but like @mcpickl noted not many have the picks + young controlled players to offer.
BUT since 99.9% of fake trades don't happen it's probably a pipe dream.
It's a good point. Some guys will clearly be way beyond our means like Beal and LaVine (surprised if the latter is really on the block anyway, but even if he were...). But we have picks and players that have nonzero value. And even more importantly, we have teams that will likely be looking to dump salary, change culture (even if only addition by subtraction), eliminate logjams, or recoup some value for an asset, and we don't force them to take back money.agreed, was trying to exhibit that the Celtics have the assets to make JC happen and have assets left to deal with Kemba's contract
I think that is an excessive amount of picks. I don't see an NBA team offering that.Would you be comfortable then trading the ‘21/‘23/‘25 picks with ’22/‘24 swaps, like the Davis/Holiday deals, and then give Collins a Jaylenesque contract in the 4 year/$120 million range?
You give up that amount of value for any player who has FA rights of any sort, and you have to assume you will be giving up the supermax because otherwise he threatens to walk and you are left with nada.Would you be comfortable then trading the ‘21/‘23/‘25 picks with ’22/‘24 swaps, like the Davis/Holiday deals, and then give Collins a Jaylenesque contract in the 4 year/$120 million range?
The idea of moving PP should pain you. One of the great things about the Cs is stable management, and I think it's clear that DA's trying to maximize the Js championship window. The only way to do that is to keep getting young, cost controlled talent. The only way PP gets moved if it's in a jaw-dropping, no brainer trade and I can't even think of one that is realistic.I realize this is irrational, but the possibility of moving Pritchard pains me. Danny finally hits big on a pick outside the top-6, and I want him to stick around He appears to be an excellent complement to the Jays.
You're referring to Bjelica, correct? If so, are you saying that Bjelica is an upgrade over The Is? I've not followed Bjelica at all but from reputation, it seems that the only place where Bjelica might be better is long-range shooting so if they are playing the 2-big lineup against a team like MIL, I think BOS plays The Is over Bjelica.He’s a pretty significant upgrade on Grant. He’s also better than their current options for a 2 big lineup, so whenever one is out there he’d be an upgrade as the 4
I was just trying to clarify what that offer was, as you wrote:and the deal I offered was more than generous
IMO the C's have the assets to make it happen. For example, Atlanta getting unprotected 1sts/pick swap + Grant + Nesmith is much better than they'll get in an S&T.
As I understand it, the most another team can offer Collins as a RFA is 4/$121M, which is why I floated the $120M range as a question.You give up that amount of value for any player who has FA rights of any sort, and you have to assume you will be giving up the supermax because otherwise he threatens to walk and you are left with nada.
He's a much better shooter than Thompson and a better shooter than Theis historically (history matters in terms of gravity/spacing). He's a better passer than both. The Kings have used him as a point forward at times. He's a slightly better rebounder than Theis. I like him as a low cost acquisition. He gives additional flexibility and optionality for CSB. Like our existing bigs his playing time would be matchup dependent. He's got reasonably active hands, but is not a plus defender. Stevens could experiment some fun five out units. Maybe he juices the offense enough to make up for the defensive hit.The idea of moving PP should pain you. One of the great things about the Cs is stable management, and I think it's clear that DA's trying to maximize the Js championship window. The only way to do that is to keep getting young, cost controlled talent. The only way PP gets moved if it's in a jaw-dropping, no brainer trade and I can't even think of one that is realistic.
You're referring to Bjelica, correct? If so, are you saying that Bjelica is an upgrade over The Is? I've not followed Bjelica at all but from reputation, it seems that the only place where Bjelica might be better is long-range shooting so if they are playing the 2-big lineup against a team like MIL, I think BOS plays The Is over Bjelica.
Maybe I am misunderstanding your post.
I’m saying Bjelica next to Theis (or next to TT or TL) is better than the 2 5s configurations they’ve run. He’s a better shooter and passer than any of them and more of a pure 4.The idea of moving PP should pain you. One of the great things about the Cs is stable management, and I think it's clear that DA's trying to maximize the Js championship window. The only way to do that is to keep getting young, cost controlled talent. The only way PP gets moved if it's in a jaw-dropping, no brainer trade and I can't even think of one that is realistic.
You're referring to Bjelica, correct? If so, are you saying that Bjelica is an upgrade over The Is? I've not followed Bjelica at all but from reputation, it seems that the only place where Bjelica might be better is long-range shooting so if they are playing the 2-big lineup against a team like MIL, I think BOS plays The Is over Bjelica.
Maybe I am misunderstanding your post.
If there is in fact a twp big lineup out there, I think Thompson/Bjelica is better than Thompson/Theis. Not because I think Bjelica is better than Theis, but he is probably a comparable defender of 4's, perhaps a little wrose, but he spreads the floor in a way that Theis can't.You're referring to Bjelica, correct? If so, are you saying that Bjelica is an upgrade over The Is? I've not followed Bjelica at all but from reputation, it seems that the only place where Bjelica might be better is long-range shooting so if they are playing the 2-big lineup against a team like MIL, I think BOS plays The Is over Bjelica.
Maybe I am misunderstanding your post.
Tobias Harris is averaging 20 points, 7.3 rebounds and 3.1 assists. He's shooting 52 percent from the floor and 42 percent from 3-point range. I'll believe the TPE brings the C's anything close to Harris when I see it, but I hope you're right.The Celtics situation is really, really similar to that of the Sixers a year ago. Two young stars, not tons of other internal development (honestly PP is better than anything young the Sixers had), a big contract for a still-useful but overpaid player, and mediocre draft picks going forward indefinitely.
Honestly the Celtics are lucky that they don't have a Tobias Harris deal: they can likely turn the TPE into a similar player but for ~half the price. They also have Smart, who, if engaged defensively, is better than the rest of the Sixers' roster.
His defense has been really bad. I'd rather just keep Theis and pay him than rent Lauri and potentially have to match a contract.What do people here think of Lauri Markkanen anyway? He's currently out but he's been mentioned as available. There's a fit, but I'm not sure how good the fit is or what kind of contract he'll get.
His stock has really plummeted, hasn't it? There was a ton of buzz around him when he was a rookie.His defense has been really bad. I'd rather just keep Theis and pay him than rent Lauri and potentially have to match a contract.
He could be available as an S&T RFA this Summer if Danny really likes him?
if Lauri is a buy-low guy then nothing wrong in adding a 7' that will eventually shoot 40% from 3.His stock has really plummeted, hasn't it? There was a ton of buzz around him when he was a rookie.
40% from 3 at ridiculous volume for a 7 footer. That's why I see a fit, but there are flaws. Theis is up at the end of the year too. It really is about acquisition price. His contract right now is only $6.7 million too. He wouldn't take much of the TPE.if Lauri is a buy-low guy then nothing wrong in adding a 7' that will eventually shoot 40% from 3.
Offensively seems like he bounced back this season (62.2 eFG%).
He's young, timelines well...not the worst move if he could be added, just hard to hide his D.
I'm a broken record on this but Danny needs to figure out the Kemba conundrum before they can be using assets to acquire more bad defenders
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/markkla01.html
Great point.Is Markkanen a bad defender because he’s incapable of playing better defense, or is he a bad defense because he plays for a bad team that plays bad defense? That is, would be be a more acceptable defender in a better situation?
Can't say I've watched Lauri much, how does he move on the perimeter? I'm open-minded, especially with players aged within the JayCrew timeline.40% from 3 at ridiculous volume for a 7 footer. That's why I see a fit, but there are flaws. Theis is up at the end of the year too. It really is about acquisition price. His contract right now is only $6.7 million too. He wouldn't take much of the TPE.
What is buy low though? I'd gladly give up a 1st round pick for him but I doubt that gets it done. Is he really a much worse option than John Collins? Seems like a far more reasonable get.
I mean... yes Collins is much better.40% from 3 at ridiculous volume for a 7 footer. That's why I see a fit, but there are flaws. Theis is up at the end of the year too. It really is about acquisition price. His contract right now is only $6.7 million too. He wouldn't take much of the TPE.
What is buy low though? I'd gladly give up a 1st round pick for him but I doubt that gets it done. Is he really a much worse option than John Collins? Seems like a far more reasonable get and that he'd sign for much less.
Career 3PA/36 and 3pt %: Lauri 7.4, .360. Collins 2.8, .374.
Lauri 414/1151 for his career, Collins is 166/444. Lauri also hasn't really been able to stay healthy, but Collins was also using steroids.
With the caveat I haven't see much either.. on offense, he moves very well. The more I look into him, he's a perfect fit offensively. The last 2 years, 54% of his FGA have been 3PA and coming out of college, some considered him the best shooter in the draft. He's a legit stretch big on offense. He has "gravity." He doesn't shoot 40% from 3 in the way Daniel Theis shoots 40% from 3.Can't say I've watched Lauri much, how does he move on the perimeter? I'm open-minded, especially with players aged within the JayCrew timeline.
While I've pumped Collins, he's pretty pipe dreamy.
This is fair, but I think Lauri is still the better fit and I'd rather acquire him. Partly because the contract will be much cheaper, because he'd require less assets in a trade, and because I think a lot of Collins skill set will be wasted here. Lauri's skillset will be maximized to its fullest.I mean... yes Collins is much better.
Last 3 years (and that's helpful to Lauri, last 2 and the differences on defense are more pronounced):
Lauri shoots more 3s, that's basically it.
Collins is a much more efficient scorer, better rebounder, better passer, draws more fouls.
BPM thinks he's a much better player
RAPTOR thinks he's been the better player each of those 3 years
DARKO thinks he's been better.
I don't put a ton into all-in-one's but all of them agreeing, and the category stats backing it up is a useful check.
John Collins is good, really good. It's why he'll be expensive and may well get maxed. Lauri is more of a 1 skill guy, but that skill is useful, and he probably won't get anywhere near as big a contract.
This is a question I always ask as well. I go back to a players physical skills along with his motor to project how a functional system would help him defensively. In Markkanen’s case he has always struggled with physical play dating back to college and has never shown that extra competitiveness you want to see for a player to grow. He isn’t that long so he can’t compensate with additional wingspan. He’s always been a “finesse” player which usually means......he’s soft. I’d say that is accurate in this case.Is Markkanen a bad defender because he’s incapable of playing better defense, or is he a bad defense because he plays for a bad team that plays bad defense? That is, would be be a more acceptable defender in a better situation? I haven’t seen enough of him to know either way, but his offense plus acceptable defense would be a solid acquisition, and Chicago hasn’t been a great place to play while he’s been there.
Do you have any guesses as to how much Collins, Lonzo and Lauri will sign for?This is a question I always ask as well. I go back to a players physical skills along with his motor to project how a functional system would help him defensively. In Markkanen’s case he has always struggled with physical play dating back to college and has never shown that extra competitiveness you want to see for a player to grow. He isn’t that long so he can’t compensate with additional wingspan. He’s always been a “finesse” player which usually means......he’s soft. I’d say that is accurate in this case.
Summary: He is what he looks like. Good shooter, soft interior defender, poor rebounder, a guy who is likely at his ceiling. If the opportunity presents itself he may be a good rotation player on winning team but for what his price tag will be it’s more likely he’ll continue being a numbers guy on lottery teams until he’s available for lesser dollars down the road.
My guesses.....Do you have any guesses as to how much Collins, Lonzo and Lauri will sign for?
My guesses.....
Collins will certainly sign a max offer sheet with someone (not a guess here, he will) and I wouldn’t expect Atlanta to match so I expect him to either be traded by the deadline or the Hawks arrange for a sign-and-trade during FA to ensure the signing team that they won’t match. Either way, the Hawks will receive “something” in return but it will be far below what his trade market value would be if not for the contract situation.
I’d guess Ball’s value is similar to Rozier’s two years ago so between $15-20m AAV is going to be his range. Anything more than 20 or less than 15 would shock the hell out of me.
Markkanen is the guy I think will be the beneficiary of the top FA having already signed extensions. He’s gonna get paid and I wouldn’t be shocked if he signed with a lottery team for a number that will blow people’s minds. Maybe not max but close to it. Obviously I don’t value him nearly this high but if you are a lottery team with cap space and want to be as competitive as possible I can see Markkannen being the big winner this summer.
Yes to all of this, he's been the guy most people thought he would be coming out of Arizona- a one-dimensional 7 footer who's one skill is the most important one in the game. I would've expected his 3pt% to be a bit higher, but going forward I expect he'll be closer to 40% than 35%. There's a lot of Rashard Lewis to his game- a finesse SG in a PF's body, who typically looks better in shoot-arounds than in games. I do think he's a really good fit for this roster to upgrade the Semi/Grant minutes.This is a question I always ask as well. I go back to a players physical skills along with his motor to project how a functional system would help him defensively. In Markkanen’s case he has always struggled with physical play dating back to college and has never shown that extra competitiveness you want to see for a player to grow. He isn’t that long so he can’t compensate with additional wingspan. He’s always been a “finesse” player which usually means......he’s soft. I’d say that is accurate in this case.
Summary: He is what he looks like. Good shooter, soft interior defender, poor rebounder, a guy who is likely at his ceiling. If the opportunity presents itself he may be a good rotation player on winning team but for what his price tag will be it’s more likely he’ll continue being a numbers guy on lottery teams until he’s available for lesser dollars down the road.
No. The C's have no use for Drummond.CLE and TOR nearing a deal for Drummond? i dont see how TOR gets up to the 23 million in salary needed though.
https://theathletic.com/2387459/2021/02/15/nba-trade-news-andre-drummond-to-raptors-coming-lonzo-ball-interest-and-more/
Ainge ins't going to panic and throw a second to CLE for Drummond is he?