Precisely. The record for guys who have missed this much time to injury so early in their careers is extremely poor.I don’t think Ainge included Romeo in either group as he hasn’t been on the floor. At this point anything out of him is a bonus.
Precisely. The record for guys who have missed this much time to injury so early in their careers is extremely poor.I don’t think Ainge included Romeo in either group as he hasn’t been on the floor. At this point anything out of him is a bonus.
I had Nesmith slotted into both descriptions as not being explosive offensively as well as being subservient to the J’s on that side of the floor.I don't think Nesmith is in that group, he's a rookie with what should be a complementary skill-set. I do think it's basically saying... yeah the low ceiling wings need to go.
Just a small correction here, the Celtics did not go over the luxury tax last season. They were a little over in 2018-19 and under in 2017-18.The short answer was given by @nighthob , so I will just add some detail.
Because the Celtics are over the soft cap, they would normally have a full $28.5M with which to add a player. Basically, the incoming salaries could be up to $28.6M ($28.5 + $100K)greater than any outgoing salary. Except there are 2 limitations that apply this season:
a.) The Celtics have $13.5M of space under the luxury tax threshold. If they cross it, they pay a repeater tax because they were over it last season, and will also have to pay repeater next season, as their committed salaries are essentially at the tax threshold already.
Kings announced back in early January that he was being removed from the rotation and didn’t play for like a dozen games. He has recently seen action due to their front court attrition and put up a 25/8 the other night.....but now that Holmes and Bagley are back he’s probably played his last minute as a King.Seems likely Bjelica will be on the move soon in Sacramento after being the only guy in uniform to not get on the floor tonight.
It's safe to assume 1) they do not want to be tax team this year and 2) they are not moving Kemba this year.Bump this number up to
Just a small correction here, the Celtics did not go over the luxury tax last season. They were a little over in 2018-19 and under in 2017-18.
You have to be over 3 out of 4 seasons to get hit with a repeater tax, so they are in no danger of that for this season.
But I'd say your larger point is correct. They will still very likely try to stay under the tax this season, so that way they can push the earliest they could get hit with the repeater tax would be the 2023-24 season.
Kevin Garnett's knee, Gordon Hayward's ankle, and Kyrie's insanity are just an incredibly bad run of luck. Imagine if LeBron breaks his leg in his first 5 minutes as a Heatle and then takes 2 years to even sort of look like himself again, or if the Warriors horrible injury luck had come in 2016 instead of 2019. You just can't weather this stuff--it's a huge credit to Ainge that the Celtics are in the position they are even with all that over the years.Not really a Danny thread for this, but great deep dive on his track record the last decade.
https://www.theringer.com/nba/2021/3/2/22308624/danny-ainge-boston-celtics
It really was remarkable how quickly the Kyrie stuff spiraled out of control. As late as the preseason of his final season, he was 100% committed to the Celtics. And you can make a decent argument that the only thing preventing a Kyrie/AD pairing was that weird, obscure Rose Rule. Without that rule preventing a mid-season AD acquisition, Ainge likely pulls the trigger and deals Jaylen, Smart, and a boatload of picks for AD and Klutch may have screwed us the following year, which would have killed this team.The bad injury luck w/ Garnett and Hayward was not something that could have been forseen. The Kyrie situation was perhaps slightly more predictable, but that situation seemed to turn on a dime.
Also, the same source puts to bed the silly idea that it is possible to predict the draft slot of future draft picks with any certainty:
https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/2/5/18211132/trade-future-first-round-pick-value-kristaps-porzingis-new-york-knicks
We are forgetting Perkins knee that cost us another Championship as well.Kevin Garnett's knee, Gordon Hayward's ankle, and Kyrie's insanity are just an incredibly bad run of luck. Imagine if LeBron breaks his leg in his first 5 minutes as a Heatle and then takes 2 years to even sort of look like himself again, or if the Warriors horrible injury luck had come in 2016 instead of 2019. You just can't weather this stuff--it's a huge credit to Ainge that the Celtics are in the position they are even with all that over the years.
The whole sequence of events that landed KG in Boston was amazing. I still chuckle thinking about Jay Bilas's righteous indignation on '06 draft night when Ainge swapped Raef's contract and the 7 for Theo Ratliff's shorter (and insurance-covered) contract and Telfair instead of drafting Randy Foye. As if the move had anything to do with Telfair or any of the actual players.We are forgetting Perkins knee that cost us another Championship as well.
Ainge has had some good luck too like his buddy McHale happening to be the GM when they were ready to move on from KG......especially after talks stalled following KG shooting the first one down.
Intense Bilas when he’s ranting on a topic he doesn’t understand is must see tv.The whole sequence of events that landed KG in Boston was amazing. I still chuckle thinking about Jay Bilas's righteous indignation on '06 draft night when Ainge swapped Raef's contract and the 7 for Theo Ratliff's shorter (and insurance-covered) contract and Telfair instead of drafting Randy Foye. As if the move had anything to do with Telfair or any of the actual players.
Ainge's run has essentially been the King Midas story.
Kings and Celtics go for that, not sure how the Hawks view Bagley and Hield. okSimmons’ trade machine fun.
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If there's one thing the Hawks need, it's a no defense, hot shooting guard.Kings and Celtics go for that, not sure how the Hawks view Bagley and Hield. ok
Ha, yup. They would have to REALLY like Bagley to accept that deal. I mean, there is some rationale for turning Collins into Bagley if you aren’t expecting to retain the former. But Hield makes no sense for them.If there's one thing the Hawks need, it's a no defense, hot shooting guard.
Hield has reportedly been a problem for awhile now. He has one skill, albeit one very good one......but if he’s going to find himself a long term role in this league he needs a big slice of humble pie.Didn’t the Kings have all sorts of internal problems with Hield and Bogdanovic? Not sure putting them back together makes any sense.
I knew it had been awhile but man time flies. Yeah I can’t think of any “trades” only a couple free agent pickups with Monroe being the most notable. Man, how quick did his flame burn in this league? If something ever happened to Steph Curry he’d have to be the primary suspect out for the gate.This is some stat, assuming Tim Bontemps' reporting is accurate:
The last time Boston acquired a player in an in-season trade was six years ago, when the team landed Isaiah Thomas from Phoenix. Only the San Antonio Spurs have a longer drought.
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/30984749/why-jayson-tatum-jaylen-brown-enough-boston-celtics-season
Fair points about the fit - I think its hard to see Walker as anything other than Plan C after the Irving and Hayward situations failed to work out. That said, I think people keep getting caught up in ideal fits etc but the reality is Boston is unlikely to ever get the perfect or even a great fit for Tatum and Brown for a variety of reasons. As everyone here knows, top end talent is one of the key drivers of winning. Even with Walker's limitations - and as has been noted widely, he has to work so hard to get his looks given his size - they can still compete for a championship provided they add more top end talent. In short, they need help.I think I'm starting to coalesce around Kemba just not being the right guy to be closing games with a JT/JB team that has championship aspirations.
When thinking about what it takes to win a championship, JT and JB's strengths are creating their own shots for ~3.5 quarters of a game, shooting, and team defense (at least for Tatum). Their weaknesses are creating shots for their teammates (relative to guys who could lead teams to a championship based on their creation abilities). I'd also say that right now that they struggle at creating consistent offense in crunch time. When the defenses really clamp down they aren't good at getting to the line or getting lay-ups in half-court offense and end up settling for too many difficult mid-range jumpers against tight defense.
As a PG Kemba's strengths are creating his own shot and shooting. His weaknesses are defense and creating shots for other people (relative to other PGs). But he also struggles to create his own shot or somebody elses shot when defenses clamp down in crunch time. He's not going to get to the line or get a lay-up. He's not going to get somebody a wide open look or layup very often. He's going to shoot a difficult, contested mid-range jumper. He is willing to be the 3rd best player on a championship team and cede the spotlight, which is great. But if you get to pay one guy $30M to be the third guy in a team built around JT and JB, I just dont think Kemba is the guy that gets them over the edge.
This is a team that is more likely to win a championship with a squad that is top 5 in both offense and defense than they are going to win one by clearly being better at offense or defense than everyone else. They don't have Luka/Trae/Harden or Gobert/AD/Embiid to use some extreme examples. So you want to focus on balanced offense and defense that is flexible and able to adapt to find different ways to beat their opponents as a unit. I think the ideal PG around JT and JB is someone who is better at creating shots for other people and better at defense than Kemba is. I think you want to maintain a high bar for the other wing/PG on the roster in terms of shooting because that will help address their weaknesses by giving them the space to get to the rim and the easier pass to make to a reliable shooter. I don't think this person needs to be as good as Kemba at creating their own shot. I also don't think this PG needs to be a 40% 3PT shooter so long as the other closing wing is a strong shooter.
So how do we get there? I think there are probably several options, but two that stand out in the near-term:
1) "The ideal PG around JT and JB is someone who is better at creating shots for other people and better at defense. Doesn't need to be a 40% 3pt shooter." That kinda sounds like Marcus Smart, doesn't it? I'm not sure he's good enough at creating for others to be The Guy, but could a closing line-up of Smart, JB, JT, <3/D wing who isn't a ball stopper>, TL/DT be a championship squad? In this scenario Kemba is on the bench and the need to upgrade the bench is reduced.
2) Trade Kemba for a different PG (who?? Lonzo??), and then figure out if Smart can be the other wing to close games or if you need an upgrade his spot for it to all work. In terms of the bench, if Smart is the guy you need to upgrade the bench. If not and you upgrade the starting lineup with the TPE then he could be your bench upgrade.
I think I lean towards #2 being the long-term answer but the thing #1 offers is the ability to test Smart as that answer before you have to find a trade for Kemba. I realize this is similar to much of the discussions but trying to find a way of talking/thinking about it that is clearer for me and hopefully others.
I agree here. I think while Kemba size/defense is a problem, it could be hidden a bit by adding to the wings. I think they're two guys short there, but really only need one big upgrade and one guy who could be about as good as Semi, but with a different skill set. Semi is good at catching and shooting threes, and guarding bigger guys with his strength. I'd want a veteran 8th-9th man type who's quicker, at least an average three point shooter, but with the ability to drive by you if you close out too hard.Fair points about the fit - I think its hard to see Walker as anything other than Plan C after the Irving and Hayward situations failed to work out. That said, I think people keep getting caught up in ideal fits etc but the reality is Boston is unlikely to ever get the perfect or even a great fit for Tatum and Brown for a variety of reasons. As everyone here knows, top end talent is one of the key drivers of winning. Even with Walker's limitations - and as has been noted widely, he has to work so hard to get his looks given his size - they can still compete for a championship provided they add more top end talent. In short, they need help.
If you added another elite shot creator or skilled big to this roster along with some veteran specialist types, they would be closer than people think imo.
I think this undersells Kemba's playmaking somewhat. His assist percentage throughout his career in Charlotte was in the 30's. It dipped to the mid-20's since coming to Boston. As a point of reference, Chris Paul had a few seasons in the 50's, and has consistently been around 40 for the last few years. Kyle Lowry has averaged 30.6 for his career. As for the Jay's, Brown is at 20 so far this year, which is his first season out of single digits. Tatum has climbed steadily from 8, to 10 to 15 to 20 this year. The point to note here is that the Jays are not great at creating opportunities for others YET. They are improving at a good clip.I think I'm starting to coalesce around Kemba just not being the right guy to be closing games with a JT/JB team that has championship aspirations.
When thinking about what it takes to win a championship, JT and JB's strengths are creating their own shots for ~3.5 quarters of a game, shooting, and team defense (at least for Tatum). Their weaknesses are creating shots for their teammates (relative to guys who could lead teams to a championship based on their creation abilities). I'd also say that right now that they struggle at creating consistent offense in crunch time. When the defenses really clamp down they aren't good at getting to the line or getting lay-ups in half-court offense and end up settling for too many difficult mid-range jumpers against tight defense.
As a PG Kemba's strengths are creating his own shot and shooting. His weaknesses are defense and creating shots for other people (relative to other PGs). But he also struggles to create his own shot or somebody elses shot when defenses clamp down in crunch time. He's not going to get to the line or get a lay-up. He's not going to get somebody a wide open look or layup very often. He's going to shoot a difficult, contested mid-range jumper. He is willing to be the 3rd best player on a championship team and cede the spotlight, which is great. But if you get to pay one guy $30M to be the third guy in a team built around JT and JB, I just dont think Kemba is the guy that gets them over the edge.
This is a team that is more likely to win a championship with a squad that is top 5 in both offense and defense than they are going to win one by clearly being better at offense or defense than everyone else. They don't have Luka/Trae/Harden or Gobert/AD/Embiid to use some extreme examples. So you want to focus on balanced offense and defense that is flexible and able to adapt to find different ways to beat their opponents as a unit. I think the ideal PG around JT and JB is someone who is better at creating shots for other people and better at defense than Kemba is. I think you want to maintain a high bar for the other wing/PG on the roster in terms of shooting because that will help address their weaknesses by giving them the space to get to the rim and the easier pass to make to a reliable shooter. I don't think this person needs to be as good as Kemba at creating their own shot. I also don't think this PG needs to be a 40% 3PT shooter so long as the other closing wing is a strong shooter.
So how do we get there? I think there are probably several options, but two that stand out in the near-term:
1) "The ideal PG around JT and JB is someone who is better at creating shots for other people and better at defense. Doesn't need to be a 40% 3pt shooter." That kinda sounds like Marcus Smart, doesn't it? I'm not sure he's good enough at creating for others to be The Guy, but could a closing line-up of Smart, JB, JT, <3/D wing who isn't a ball stopper>, TL/DT be a championship squad? In this scenario Kemba is on the bench and the need to upgrade the bench is reduced.
2) Trade Kemba for a different PG (who?? Lonzo??), and then figure out if Smart can be the other wing to close games or if you need an upgrade his spot for it to all work. In terms of the bench, if Smart is the guy you need to upgrade the bench. If not and you upgrade the starting lineup with the TPE then he could be your bench upgrade.
I think I lean towards #2 being the long-term answer but the thing #1 offers is the ability to test Smart as that answer before you have to find a trade for Kemba. I realize this is similar to much of the discussions but trying to find a way of talking/thinking about it that is clearer for me and hopefully others.
It's definitely true, by shear coincidence I was having a discussion with a buddy about this very topic last week and I did the research myself. I couldn't believe it either.This is some stat, assuming Tim Bontemps' reporting is accurate:
The last time Boston acquired a player in an in-season trade was six years ago, when the team landed Isaiah Thomas from Phoenix. Only the San Antonio Spurs have a longer drought.
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/30984749/why-jayson-tatum-jaylen-brown-enough-boston-celtics-season
Ah then we can play the NBA 2k12 classic of all bigs no guardsThey should offer All the Drafts, Anyone not named Smart, Jayson and Jaylen, Lucky and Red and Larrys statue for Gordon and Vucevic.
Kemba, Romeo and TL (along with all kinds of Picks) works in the Trade machine. (We could also add Theis and or Nesmith).
We end up +5 they end up -5 wins. We are 7.7 under the cap, they are 20 under.
Obviously I dont think we can send 5 or 6 guys and picks for just 2 guys.... but 3 maybe 4 (one of which has to be Kemba) and a bunch of picks....maybe.
You know where I land. Right target trade partner, wrong guy. Vuc on this team, assuming everyone gets healthy, plus some buyouts gives me fever dreams. I don't dislike Gordon at all but swapping 30 of their current big minutes for Vucevic and all that he does makes this team very interesting, right now imo.I agree here. I think while Kemba size/defense is a problem, it could be hidden a bit by adding to the wings. I think they're two guys short there, but really only need one big upgrade and one guy who could be about as good as Semi, but with a different skill set. Semi is good at catching and shooting threes, and guarding bigger guys with his strength. I'd want a veteran 8th-9th man type who's quicker, at least an average three point shooter, but with the ability to drive by you if you close out too hard.
That guy shouldn't be too hard to find. The first guy will be more rare. My goal would be for that guy to start, and move Smart back to the 6th man if he'd buy in to that. I'm probably in the top 1% of Smart fans, but I never like Smart playing 30+ minutes. For me, his 30 minutes is like Pedro Martinez 100 pitches. Once you get past that, it's diminishing returns. I don't think Smart can be at his best playing so much, he expends so much energy that I don't think can sustain heavy minutes. My dream guy would be a guy who could be, excuse the old school positioning, a PF who could be a small ball 5. Can shoot it well enough from the perimeter, is agile enough to drive, can be a secondary shot creator, and be at least a credible defender.
The best option in my mind that might possibly be available is Aaron Gordon. By himself, he'd give Brad a lot more options.
Can start Theis Gordon Tatum Brown Kemba. Now you're small at the 1 & 5, but huge at the three wing spots
Need to play fast to catch up late, go Gordon Tatum Brown Smart Kemba
Need some stops, Theis Gordon Tatum Brown Smart
Close in the last two minutes, Theis Gordon Tatum Brown with Kemba/Smart subbing in offense and defense
A couple added bonuses for Gordon, signed at a good price thru next season, and at 25 years old is viable to be here long term if he works out.
Not sure if Orlando is ready to move him, or if the Celtics would have what they're looking for, but he'd be my #1 target that I'd be pestering Orlando about regularly.
I don't think Gordon makes Boston a title favorite, but would at least give them a fighting chance.
Vuc doesn't do much for me.You know where I land. Right target trade partner, wrong guy. Vuc on this team, assuming everyone gets healthy, plus some buyouts gives me fever dreams. I don't dislike Gordon at all but swapping 30 of their current big minutes for Vucevic and all that he does makes this team very interesting, right now imo.
Fair point about the shots but Vucevic plays defense. I understand that he isn't a shot blocker but he gets into his targets and can defend the PnR pretty credibly. The dude is a playmaker and can score from anywhere on the floor. He would give this squad an entirely different profile, especially against all the contenders who each pretty much have a new age big of their own.Vuc doesn't do much for me.
I'm defense first at center, always and forever.
Wouldn't want another guy that needs that many shots either.
I can't pretend I've seen enough Orlando games over the past couple years to see with my own eyes, so I'm just going by numbers. Those all have him somewhere between OK to worse than OK on defense, and the guy he'd be replacing in Theis being much better.Fair point about the shots but Vucevic plays defense. I understand that he isn't a shot blocker but he gets into his targets and can defend the PnR pretty credibly. The dude is a playmaker and can score from anywhere on the floor. He would give this squad an entirely different profile, especially against all the contenders who each pretty much have a new age big of their own. Finally, I will just add that Vucevic does handle the ball a lot and that might be a concern if he is just a numbers guy. There is no way to be certain but you have to believe the Celtics will be very careful about the chemistry aspect of any potential move. I think they would want to avoid another disgruntled veteran lockerroom presence at this point in their trajectory so if Vucevic or any potential target isn't onboard with changing their style of play to join a good young core, its hard to see them forcing things.
There is no question that negative or deleterious basketball players exist. But every metric suggests that both Vucevic and Gordon add basketball value in the right spots. I think the team's record says more about how that franchise is run and the (lack of) talent around those players than their individual contributions.Gordon and Vucevic have been the centerpieces of a team that has been over .500 once in their 8 years together.
Tough to do, since this is only Aaron Gordon 7th season, and certainly wasn't a centerpiece in his first couple seasons.Gordon and Vucevic have been the centerpieces of a team that has been over .500 once in their 8 years together.
OK 7 years, sorryTough to do, since this is only Aaron Gordon 7th season, and certainly wasn't a centerpiece in his first couple seasons.
They also, obviously, wouldn't be centerpieces here.
So if we're including this season, Bradley Beal is only over .500 2 of his last 6 seasons.
No interest in him then?
Agree with your tone on construction and a PG that doesn't get hunted during the playoffsThe Celtics do not have a defensive PG with length. That was one of the disappointments for me coming out of the last draft where I thought there were some good prospects to hopefully fulfill that need (at least there were PGs with length - I don't about the defense part). I'm really glad Kemba is playing better, he seems like a great guy, and he certainly has value. But, I'd rather the C's had a different roster construction.
Orlando was essentially in rebuilding mode for the first six/seven years of their respective careers from their late aughts conference finalist. Their head coaches during Vucevic's time there are as follows: Stan Van Gundy, Jacque Vaughn, Scott Skiles, Frank Vogel and then Clifford who got them over .500 for the first time. But then again, were I running an NBA team, especially one that doesn't yet have the starpower to attract other players or a geographic pull, I would be looking for exactly these sorts of players. Seems like players who show just below elite level skills for badly run clubs are exactly the sort who might be undervalued - of course they can be overvalued as well. I certainly wouldn't let a team's record color my evaluation of a player to any great degree.OK 7 years, sorry
I am fine with either Gordon or Vuc. Just don't think it is wise to give up Romeo, Nesmith, TL, and a bunch of picks for two guys who have collectively done squat together.
I don't agree at all.LOL
You would still have Teague, Smart, PP, Edwards and or Waters and Green. Really we are only giving up 1 Guard. (and Romeo.....who we never seem to have anyway...)
We are really giving up young "Potential" in RWill, Romeo and Nesmith plus whatever draft picks.
Vuc, Gordon, Tatum, Brown and Smart would be a great starting 5.
Bench would be PP.........teague, Thompson...OJ Gwill....Green, Eds and Waters.
I don't think Smart is really what we are looking for. He's a great defensive player, but not against 1s - in general, I'd say. We need someone who has the quickness to guard scoring PGs, but who has the length to still be switchable.Any discussion of adding Collins (my fav), Vucevic or Gordon NOW probably means moving Kemba this summer with the idea of Smart being your PG next season.
Finding guys that can guard quick PGs, while being switchable is pretty rare. Marcus could do it in the playoffs when he is locked in.I don't think Smart is really what we are looking for. He's a great defensive player, but not against 1s - in general, I'd say. We need someone who has the quickness to guard scoring PGs, but who has the length to still be switchable.
I think a true quick-1 stopper is pretty rare, and teams will just switch onto a slower defender anyway whenever they can. I think it's less about someone who can specifically stop those guys from getting into the paint (it's generally not really doable) and more about having a team D filled with guys who are universally switchable, or at the very least not exploitable.I don't think Smart is really what we are looking for. He's a great defensive player, but not against 1s - in general, I'd say. We need someone who has the quickness to guard scoring PGs, but who has the length to still be switchable.
+1 on WrightSo the discussion of PGs...
here's a name for a cheap guy who might make sense as a Teague replacement (though Teague has been better recently)...
Delon Wright. Currently injured, but he's a 6'5" PG who has graded out as a plus defender throughout his career and has been a shade over league average as a 3pt shooter in 3 of the last 4 seasons. Not particularly expensive, and DET is likely to move him.