Survivor: Week 2

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

By advanced statistics CLE is a good pick.  They're 9th in DVOA, and playing a team that's 31st in DVOA (and probably isn't going to win more than 3 or 4 games this year).
 
That said, they're not the best pick for a number of reasons.  For one, the Browns are 29th in defensive DVOA, and had given up 23+ points in every game this season until they beat up the Steelers.  For another, the Browns have been historically inconsistent on the road (they went down by 24 points in Week 1 @ PIT and by 25 points in Week 5 @ TEN before roaring back in both games, setting a record for biggest road comeback ever in the 2nd).
 
Long story short, I agree with tims (TYMS) above: it's a risky but justifiable pick.

Thanks so much to those of you who weighed in. Seeing Cleveland's starting C, Mack, put on IR is making me a little antsy with that pick, as well. I had been hoping to save teams like Seattle for later in the year - while not subscribing to a risky, "voted off the island with an immunity idol in my pocket" strategy - but now I'm not so sure.

 

[savage362]

So I was originally going to take Cleveland today hoping to save Seattle until week 9 but I've been gong back and forth about it constantly over the last 3 days. I think I've finally flushed out my next 4 picks, through week 10.
 
Week 1: Philadelphia (W)
Week 2: Green Bay (W)
Week 3: New England (W)
Week 4: San Diego (W)
Week 5: Pittsburgh (W)
Week 6: Baltimore (W)
 
Week 7: Seattle
Week 8: Cleveland
Week 9: Cincinnati
Week 10: Arizona
 
 
This could change week to week based on performance and injuries but I think I've got 2-3 teams I'd be comfortable rolling with each of those weeks. The one pick I'm rethinking right now is the Cincinnati pick and that's only because over 50% of ESPN users have picked them that week. I would rather make a less popular pick (SF) and root for the upset.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

It's really hard to win on the road in the NFL.

 

[TheDeuce222]

So changing from Buffalo to Seattle today....not a good call.  Of course, picking Buffalo in the first place was a questionable call, but would have survived.  I should have changed my pick after that Harvin trade because of the uncertainty.  Damnit. 

 

[Dan to Theo to Ben]

It's really hard to win on the road in the NFL.

this. Rule #1 of survivor pools is never take the road team, unless you have a no choice. Like complete no choice.

 

[Oppo]

Well, I'm out with Sea this week

 

[dynomite]

So all 3 of us remaining just lost (1 CLE, 2 SEA).

What happens now?

 

[Leskanic's Thread]

So all 3 of us remaining just lost (1 CLE, 2 SEA).

What happens now?

 
Everyone ante-up again and play for a doubled pot?

 

[dynomite]

 
Everyone ante-up again and play for a doubled pot?

 
Or do we divide the pot 3 ways?  
 
It's through Yahoo, so maybe our options are limited, but I can't find anything that discusses this in the scoring & settings area.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

Thanks to the advisors. I went with Baltimore and approximately a zillion people in a pretty sizable survivor pool went out today bc of Seattle. Phew.

A bounce back for Cleveland at home next week v the Raiders is tempting.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Made it through both of my pools thanks to Dallas and New England.  In one pool, we are now down to 341 survivors from an original 2,717 players.  In the other, we are down to 118 out of 523 (you can pick teams multiple times in that one, so it's a bit easier). 
 
Won't even glance at next week until Tuesday.  Just how I roll.  Enjoy it for a day or two.

 

[mauf]

A bounce back for Cleveland at home next week v the Raiders is tempting.

 
Depends how strongly you believe in avoiding the consensus pick -- DAL over WAS figures to be the safest pick, but I'll bet half your pool will take the Cowboys.
 
If you want to avoid the Cowboys, the Browns and the Chiefs (vs STL) are the logical alternatives. You could also consider DEN (vs SD) and NE (vs CHI) if you're one of the few people that hasn't already used those two.

 

[dynomite]

(No ties in my knockout pool, so I'm still rolling)

I'm having trouble justifying any pick other than DAL (vs. WAS).

With McCoy at QB and the Cowboys rolling this feels like a no-brainer -- win and move on. Anyone have strong arguments for KC (vs. STL) or CLE (vs. OAK).

 

[mauf]

This week's contenders, with money lines on the upset from VegasInsider.com:
 
Dallas (WAS +375)
Denver (SD +300)
Cleveland (OAK +270)
Kansas City (STL +260)
New England (CHI +230)
Miami (JAX +210)
Seattle (CAR +200)
 
DAL is the obvious pick -- they're the biggest favorite, and the Cowboys' three remaining home opponents are formidable (ARI, PHI, IND).
 
As a result, however, they are a highly used pick (P% 45.6), and there's always something to be said for avoiding the consensus pick.

 

[Dan Murfman]

Just an FYI but the Cowboys do have a game against Jax in London coming up

 

[Deathofthebambino]

In my pool where I can take anyone at any time, I'm going Dallas.  Not really much of a thought in my mind, even if RGIII returns this week. Just don't see this being the week where they have a let down.  In fact, I think they use this Monday night as an opportunity to really win over a lot of their detractors and folks that still haven't bought in.  That said, a loss would be pretty typical of the Cowboys, at least in the sense of how their fans view them.  A lot of people seemed to think last week vs. Giants would be the typical let down game for them in which they came crashing back to Earth, but in my opinion, this week would be way more comical with a MNF audience.  I just don't see it happening barring some crazy bounces and/or injuries.
 
However, because I used them last week in my normal Survivor pool, I have to go elsewhere in that one.  I've got some good teams left, like Seattle, Baltimore, Indy, etc., but none of those matchups are enticing.  My first inclination was to go with Cleveland at home against Oakland, and I rarely second guess myself and change my pick, but the more and more I look at KC vs. St. Louis, the more I like that pick.  KC is really, really good at home.  St. Louis is really, really not as good away from the dome.  KC's pass rush should give Austin Davis fits, and the Rams defense looks a whole lot more mortal than they were thought to be pre-season.  I don't look at Cleveland yet and find things that I can say "They do this way better than their opponent" or "This is a huge strength for them and a huge weakness for Oakland."  Cleveland is a nice, solid team, but nice, solid teams get upset all the time.  On the flipside, Cleveland is coming off a terrible game and need a win to get back in the right direction, whereas KC is coming off a huge win, and this could be a prototypical let down game.  But, it could also be a let down game for the Rams coming off the win against Seattle.  Uggh...I could go on and on like this, and have been doing so in my head for a couple days now.  What say you guys between those two choices? 
 
I have already used Denver and New England, so they are non-starters, as are the road teams, Seattle and Miami, regardless of opponent.  Seems to me there are enough choices with the home teams this week that there isn't any need to stray.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Well, I suppose it ended ok for me.  I'm still alive in my "normal" survivor pool after getting by with Cleveland.  We lost 135 players this week, (mostly on Dallas), and now there are only 206 people out of 2,717 left. 
 
In the other, I had Dallas, so I now go into the "one loss" bracket and play for about $30,000 in pool money.  There are only 46 out of 522 left in the no loss bracket.  In the one loss bracket, there are currently 173 people.  Uggh.  If I had picked anyone but Dallas, I'd be moving on because there really weren't any other big upsets this week, and this is the league where you can take anyone you want at any time.  I would have felt pretty damn good to be alive in both of these, but I'll settle for this result instead of the other way around.  On to next week.

 

[mauf]

This week's candidates:
 
Seattle (OAK +1000)
Cincinnati (JAX +475)
San Francisco (STL +450)
Kansas City (NYJ +400)
 
If you've been saving Seattle, there's no reason not to use them now -- next week is their last easy game (vs NYG), and BAL (vs TEN) and ARI (vs STL) figure to be equally safe choices.
 
If you have used SEA already, then take CIN unless you mistrust the odds -- SF in Week 12 (vs WAS) and KC in Week 15 (vs OAK) are more appealing than any of CIN's remaining games.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Kind of wishing I hadn't saved Seattle at this point, because I love the Cincy pick and I'm not sure I'll get another chance to use them.  If you had both of them available, which would you use this week, and which would you save for later?  I actually have all 4 of those teams available, but I'm not sure I love the SF matchup, and I avoid the Jets at all costs.  They seem to bite me every year.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

I've given this a ton of thought, and in my normal pool, I'm going with Cincinnati.  The only matchup I like for them the rest of the way is Tampa Bay, but that's on the road, and I'm loathe to take a road team.  I think they should take care of business this week pretty easily vs. the Jaguars.
 
Meanwhile, there are some question marks with Seattle right now, particularly with the locker room, and while I don't think they'll lose to Oakland, I wouldn't mind seeing another week from them to see how they respond, and then I'll use them next week at home against the Giants, who are not a good team.  On top of that, I don't really like Baltimore vs. Tennessee or Arizona vs. St. Louis next week, so I'd rather have the Seahawks available to me for that.
 
I'm flipping it in my other league though, where I just lost with Dallas, and can use any team I want, and I'm going with Seattle there.  Hope neither pick bites me in the ass.

 

[mauf]

That makes sense, DotB. CIN feels like a safer pick than SF and KC, much more so than the odds suggest.

 

[mauf]

Cincy is a more popular pick than Seattle (P% 42.5 vs. 33.5, per survivorgrid.com). I'm not sure if that's because a lot of people have burned SEA already, or if a lot of people are thinking like DotB and planning to take SEA over NYG next week. (The Seahawks have lost the two games that looked the easiest ex ante, so I'm assuming a surprisingly large proportion of remaining players haven't used SEA yet.)

 

[mauf]

Hopefully no one here had the Niners yesterday.
 
Assuming everyone has used DEN by now, the four most attractive options this coming week are SEA (vs NYG), BAL (vs TEN), ARI (vs STL) and GB (vs CHI). All of those are oft-used teams, but I'm guessing everyone has at least one of the four available.
 
A couple days ago, I would have confidently predicted that Baltimore would be the biggest favorite this week, but I'm not sure how the oddsmakers will respond to the Ravens' poor performance @PIT last night.

 

[mauf]

This week's money lines, from vegasinsider.com:
 
Denver (OAK +500)
Baltimore (TEN +400)
Seattle (NYG +400)
Green Bay (CHI +290)
Arizona (STL +270)
Cincinnati (CLE +240)
Philadelphia (CAR +230)
 
No line yet on DAL-JAX, presumably because of Romo's uncertain status.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

I realize they're a road team, but doesn't PITT at the jets seem like a decent pick for this week? Even an obvious one?

 

[mauf]

I realize they're a road team, but doesn't PITT at the jets seem like a decent pick for this week? Even an obvious one?

 
No way. The Jets have lost 8 straight, but 4 of those were one-score games, and they've only had one home game where they truly stunk up the joint (vs BUF 2 weeks ago). The current money line (NYJ +195) seems about right to me, making the Jets a much riskier play than BAL or SEA.
 
By the way, the P% on the Seahawks is just 6.7, compared to 33.0 for the Ravens. SEA is the right pick if you haven't used them (and assuming you've used DEN).

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Yep, I've been planning on using Seattle this week for a couple of weeks now, which is why I used Cincy last week.  Seems like a no-brainer to me.  The Giants are really not good, and Seattle absolutely has to win this game as they head into a rough part of their schedule.  I expect them to pound the rock with Lynch again this week, and their defense to step up after looking a little shaky against Oakland last week.
 
In my pool where I can use anyone, I'm going back to the Denver well.  I really hate road teams, but I also like to switch up my pick between the two pools, and coming off a loss, I don't see Oakland making it two in a row for the Broncos.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

If I make it past this week in my normal pool, all remaining players have to begin using two teams next week, which is going to be brutally hard.  Considering we've already used 10 teams each to that point, that only leaves 22 teams to pick from, or 11 games each week.  It's a long standing rule to cull the herd toward the end of the season.  We're currently down to 185 or so people from an initial pool of over 2,700. 

 

[DanoooME]

Seattle's a good pick just because they will likely have 5 starters and maybe 6 back from injury this week.

 

[Kramerica Industries]

How risky do you guys think it is to take the Bengals tonight?

 

[tims4wins]

What are your other options? Feel like it is slightly better than a toss up tonight

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

I've still got Pitt as an option I like - while duly acknowledging the good thoughts above - vs. AZ against St. Louis.

Edit: because I have a three year old and Paw Patrol exists.

 

[Kramerica Industries]

I have used NE, Sea, Den, Ind, KC, Bal, PHI, GB, BYE
 
My only other option is probably ARZ or Pittsburgh.
 
Its only getting tougher from here.

 

[tims4wins]

Tough situation. St. Louis plays those division games tough, and the Jets are going to beat an unsuspecting team at some point.
 
If I were in your situation I think I'd lean Arizona, with the thought that it is unlikely for the Rams to go on the road in back to back weeks against good teams and win.

 

[Kramerica Industries]

Thanks Tims.
 
This week screams upsets.

 

[dynomite]

I have used NE, Sea, Den, Ind, KC, Bal, PHI, GB, BYE
 
My only other option is probably ARZ or Pittsburgh.
 
Its only getting tougher from here.

I'd much rather go ARZ, who haven't lost at home and have a healthy Palmer playing well.

 

[tims4wins]

Thanks Tims.
 
This week screams upsets.

 
So you avoided Cincy, right?

 

[Kramerica Industries]

So you avoided Cincy, right?

Yes I did. In hindsight what was I thinking? Dalton is so bad.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

God bless those of you who talked me away from Pittsburgh. Hoping the Cards can get it done this afternoon.

 

[mauf]

Don't thank us too soon

Seriously, as a Steelers' fan, that one wasn't too hard to see coming.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

Don't thank us too soon
Seriously, as a Steelers' fan, that one wasn't too hard to see coming.

I know. And I just accused someone else of a jinx-y "rookie move." Oh well.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

I survived in both pools again with Seattle and Denver (although in the second one, I am in the one loss bracket).  In the big one, we are down to 153 survivors after today with 7 folks having Green Bay tonight.  We lost 17 on Cinci and 7 on Pitt today.  So, 153 out of 2,717 left.  Now, we start picking 2 winners per week.  Uggh.  Not excited about that, but I have a rule, in that I don't look at the games for the upcoming week until Tuesday.  Give myself a day or so to enjoy moving on before stressing out again. 
 
In the other pool, it goes right through the Super Bowl to try and decide a winner or winners.  And for the last two weeks (conference championship and Super Bowl week), you have to pick the winner with the spreads.
 
Man, it would be so much easier if everyone else would just get knocked out except me one week. 

 

[mauf]

This week's money lines:
 
San Diego (OAK +500)
Denver (STL +400)
New Orleans (CIN +280)
Washington (TB +260)
Miami (BUF +240)
Green Bay (PHI +210)
Pittsburgh (TEN +210)
 
According to survivorgrid.com, the four teams getting the heaviest play are SD, DEN, WAS and PIT. I'm guessing the perceived uncertainty of a Thursday game is tamping down interest in MIA.
 
If you're one to look ahead, the Saints have easy home games in Weeks 14 and 16 (CAR and ATL, respectively), and the Dolphins should be heavily favored in Week 16 (vs MIN).

 

[dynomite]

With the way WAS has looked, they're out for me.

That means it's going to come down to PIT (@ Ten) or NO (vs. Cin). Not loving either of those, but I guess I lean Saints?

 

[tims4wins]

In this rare instance I think I'd lean Steelers coming off an embarassing loss. But NO is certainly defensible. I'm mostly basing this on strength of opponent.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

I have to pick two winners this week in my pool, and New Orleans, San Diego, Denver, GB, Philly, etc. are off the board for me already.
 
Right now, I'm planning to go with Washington and Pitt.  I really wish Chicago was playing someone other than Minnesota, because that could go either way.  Likewise, Detroit and Arizona, who are both available to me, but no idea who wins that one at Arizona.  I haven't used Indy, but they are obviously not an option.  Likewise, I could use Carolina or Atlanta, but how the hell do you pick either of those teams against each other, especially with how bad Carolina looked this week.  And why the fuck does KC have to be playing Seattle this week.  Uggh.
 
I think literally the only other games that seem to be an option for me is Miami/Buffalo or Houston/Cleveland, but man, those are really hard to call, IMO.  The Buffalo defensive line is playing as well as anyone, and I could see them forcing Tannehill into some bad throws and pulling that one out.  Houston/Cleveland is a game between two of the most inconsistent teams in the NFL.  They are basically both completely schizophrenic.  I have no idea which version of either team would show up.  If I was forced to pick one, it would be Cleveland, especially if it got announced that Aryan Foster wasn't playing, but he says he is, and that alone gives Houston a chance. 
 
I guess there is one other game out there that I haven't considered much.  San Francisco at the Giants.  Obviously, I'd go with the Niners if forced to choose, and I've done pretty well so far going against the Giants, but something about San Fran and Kaepernick scares the shit out of me.  Fuck me, this is a hard week to find two fucking winners.
 
Come on folks.  Someone talk me into something.  I'm actually more concerned about Pitt than I am Washington for some reason.  I know Pitt is coming off a big loss, and they have to win this one to stay in a good spot for the playoff hunt, but I don't know.  Monday night football, on the road, always a dicey proposition. 
 
With respect to Washington who I hate, absolutely hate, Tampa is really, really bad.  I think the Redskins defense is good enough to shut them down, and unless RGIII is really all done, he should be able to make something happen

 

[mauf]

I agree with your analysis. MIA is a safer pick than PIT on paper, but that line just seems wrong to me.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

In this rare instance I think I'd lean Steelers coming off an embarassing loss. But NO is certainly defensible. I'm mostly basing this on strength of opponent.

Wow, not often people are going to pick a 4-5 team against a 5-3-1 team in a survivor pool, particularly when the 4-5 team plays in the worst division in football and the 5-3-1 team plays in (arguably) the toughest.

 

[tims4wins]

Well the 5-3-1 team is 2-3-1 after a hot start and really hasn't looked the same since the Pats shellacked them. NO is historically very good at home and should be able to throw on the Cincy D. The Cincy O also looks completely out of whack.

That said, things change on a dime EVERY week in this league.

Edit: also, 4 of the 5 Saints losses are by 3 points or less. They are a handful of plays away from being a 6 win or better team.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

I originally had Washington at home v TB, which I still might look at. Pitt on the road is worrying, but I agree that coming off what I can only assume is an infuriating loss to the J-E-T-S will likely motivate them into a road W.