Teach me how to (sign/offer sheet) Dougie

[The B’s Knees]

Dreger is reporting on TSN that Dougie will be "the poster boy for offer sheets this summer" and may be looking for Pietrangelo and Doughty money.
So we're talking $6.5-7 million per.
Sweeney will have his hands full this offseason - I gotta think either Chara or Lucic gets shipped out if we're keeping Dougie.

 

[Dummy Hoy]

I'd roll the dice and throw a 5/28 at Dougie before July 1...they cannot allow the offer sheets to hit. Word I've been hearing from a wide variety of NHL sources is that teams are going to start unloading with Offer Sheets now...things have gotten too competitive to abide by a gentleman's agreement. 
 
Looch or Krejci need to be moved, and probably Sieds too, which sucks because his value is near nil.

 

[BigMike]

I'd roll the dice and throw a 5/28 at Dougie before July 1...they cannot allow the offer sheets to hit. Word I've been hearing from a wide variety of NHL sources is that teams are going to start unloading with Offer Sheets now...things have gotten too competitive to abide by a gentleman's agreement. 
 
Looch or Krejci need to be moved, and probably Sieds too, which sucks because his value is near nil.

 
I don't like 5 years for Dougie, I'd rather go 3 years, or max contract. I still don't buy someone is going to start unloading the OS as you say. Just another way for the league to kill themselves
 
In terms of Seids.  I might move him.  The problem is you cant replace him for the same cost.  So I keep him if I think he can bounce back and be a reasonable 4/5.  I only move him if I am convinced last year was the best we can expect, and some fool will take him.

 

[Dummy Hoy]

 
I don't like 5 years for Dougie, I'd rather go 3 years, or max contract. I still don't buy someone is going to start unloading the OS as you say. Just another way for the league to kill themselves
 
In terms of Seids.  I might move him.  The problem is you cant replace him for the same cost.  So I keep him if I think he can bounce back and be a reasonable 4/5.  I only move him if I am convinced last year was the best we can expect, and some fool will take him.

 
I've read multiple people from Bourne to newspaper guys to "unnamed club sources" who have all 'suggested' that the end of the gentleman's agreement is nigh. 
I think Sweeney has to operate as if that's going to happen, otherwise he very well may lose Hamilton.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

What would the compensation for Hamilton be?

 

[cshea]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mirtle/status/484009107272519680

3.3-5.05 is 1st and 3rd
5.05-6.7 is a 1, 2, 3
6.7-8.4 is 1, 1, 2
8.4 and up is 4 1st rounders.

Safe to say any offer will likely be below 8.4. If an offer sheet comes through, I'd imagine it would have to be in the 6.7-8.4 range. Anything under 6.7 and I think the B's match. 6.7-8.4 probably makes them think.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

Seriously, let the offer sheets come in. The compensation makes it worth it if the price is too high. I have no problem with Sweeney waiting to see what offer sheets come in.

 

[BigMike]

What would the compensation for Hamilton be?

 
It depends on the cost.   I think the Bruins match up to at least 5 yrs 7 million. At about 7.3 million the compensation jumps to 2 #1's a #2 and a #3.  At around 9.1 million the compensation jumps to 4 first round picks.
 
One thing,   if a contract is longer than 5 years, compensation is determined using total value divided by years.  So if Dougie got 7/49.  The Bruins compensation would be 4 #1s.

 

[cshea]

FWIW, LA, Chicago, Colorado, Minnesota, NYI, Pittsburgh, Dallas, Detroit, NJ, ST. Louis, SJ, Vancouver and Winnipeg have all traded at least 1 of their own picks in the first 3 rounds of the 2016 draft. They'd have to re-acquire picks to make an offer sheet.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

FWIW, LA, Chicago, Colorado, Minnesota, NYI, Pittsburgh, Dallas, Detroit, NJ, ST. Louis, SJ, Vancouver and Winnipeg have all traded at least 1 of their own picks in the first 3 rounds of the 2016 draft. They'd have to re-acquire picks to make an offer sheet.

Would they have to reacquire their own first round picks or would any first round pick be sufficient? How many teams have the picks and cap space to offer sheet Dougie?

 

[Dummy Hoy]

I would be concerned that losing Hamilton for picks (even if the overall value is equal) stes the team back from contention a few more seasons, and by the time those picks are ready to be major contributors, some of the core guys now are on the downside.
 
But there's obviously a lot to weigh behind the scenes and none of us here really have a clue.

 

[cshea]

It has to be your natural pick, not another one acquired in a trade. When we went through the Kessel debacle Toronto re-acquired one of their traded picks to up the pressure on the Bruins.

Off the top of my head, teams that have the need, cap space and picks available...Buffalo, CBJ, Carolina, NJ, Arizona, and of course the elephant in the room is probably the Oilers. They got an obvious need, and obvious connection to Hamilton, cap space plus a bevy of assets to either trade or at least offset the loss of the picks if they go the offer sheet route.

 

[cshea]

I think my earlier info regarding the offer sheets and levels of compensation was wrong. Fortunately, we have General Fanager to correct my errors. They have a nice tool that shows the compensation levels and what teams can make offer sheets at the different levels.

http://www.generalfanager.com/draftpicks/offersheets

We're really looking at the $7.3-$9.1 range. So teams to worry about are- Anaheim, Arizona, Buffalo, Calgary, CBJ, Edmonton, LA*, Montreal, NYR, Ottawa, Philly, Tampa Bay, Toronto and Washington.

* I'm nearly positive LA is out. He's not going there anyways, but their first round pick in 2016 belongs to Carolina from the Sekera trade.

I think an offer sheet is very unlikely since they basically never happen. When they do, they've all been matched, with the exception of Penner. Anyways, from that group, I'd say only really Buffalo, Carolina, Columbus and Edmonton are potential hreats. They all have the cap space and need, though Carolina and Columbus operate on internal budgets so I'd imagine a massive offer sheet from either of them is unlikely. Edmonton and Buffalo have the money and cap space. Maybe a wild card like Philly or Toronto if they clear money (Phaneuf/Kessel) out of there.

 

[Salem's Lot]

I see all of this as J.P Barry doing an excellent job representing his client and using the media to get Hamilton the best deal possible. The only leverage that he has is to get the Bruins to overpay now fearing an offer sheet after July 1. I doubt he'll sign an offer sheet and even if he does, Sweeney will match it.  

 

[FelixMantilla]

http://www.coppernblue.com/2015/6/11/8763765/the-plot-to-acquire-hamilton

 

[lexrageorge]

http://www.coppernblue.com/2015/6/11/8763765/the-plot-to-acquire-hamilton

I'm obviously am missing something, because PSK showed over $7M in pre-season cap space for the Bruins in the other thread before this was broken out.  And that was with Hamilton making $6.25, and accounting for the minimum number of players.  Far more than the $3M the author of this article is claiming.  Is there some weird cap thingy that I'm missing? 
 
Still fuming at the NHL's incompetence when it comes to the salary cap....

 

[PedroSpecialK]

This contributor is ignoring the Savard portion of the cap, as well as the 10% offseason cushion.

I don't doubt that Edmonton would fancy an offer sheet, but it's going to be well within the Bruins' ability to match.

 

[Toe Nash]

This contributor is ignoring the Savard portion of the cap, as well as the 10% offseason cushion.

I don't doubt that Edmonton would fancy an offer sheet, but it's going to be well within the Bruins' ability to match.

Don't they have to be under when the season starts though? Do they have enough contracts that they could put in the AHL for a day?

 

[PedroSpecialK]

They would have to be under by day 1, but realistically, they still have trade chits in Eriksson, Lucic, Smith, and Kelly to get compliant.

And if it comes down to a couple million being the difference, any asset you have to tack onto Chris Kelly to get someone to take him (assuming waivers are unsuccessful) would be more worthwhile than not matching a Hamilton offer sheet.

Edit: not to mention that doing the same for Savard would afford $4m in space

 

[dstacy1224]

If we're keeping Dougie lets get rid of Chara or Lucic. Lucic definitely has some value to him and we could definitely get something good for him or even Dougie for that matter. Sweeney definitely has his hands tied with this off season.

 

[lexrageorge]

Don't they have to be under when the season starts though? Do they have enough contracts that they could put in the AHL for a day?

It seems like the obvious choice would be to put Kelly and Smith on waivers and assign them to Providence for Day 1.  If they can do that to Seidenberg instead of Smith, that's even better.  If someone wants to put a claim on Kelly, I'd say be my guest.  
 
Chances are a trade will happen before then.  This is really just a worst case scenario in case they cannot dump any contracts or move Savard's money. 
 
Still amazed that an author can write an article going into the salary cap implications of a key RFA player without understanding the salary cap, and yet be called an expert. 

 

[kenneycb]

Putting Smith on waivers would be stupid on epic proportions.  Sure he is overpaid but if a guy like Fraser can get claimed, a guy like Smith, an actual NHL-caliber player, with a relatively modest salary on short years will get snatched up by any team with some wiggle room in cap space.

 

[The B’s Knees]

After Day 1, with Savard coming off the books, they'll still be tight with having (hopefully) signed Dougie, Connolly, Spooner, and another D-man.
If it looks like they'll be close to the cap, and Sweeney hasn't traded one of Lucic, Seids, Chara, or Kelly, I can see Smith (or possibly Kelly) spending a stint in the minors similar to what Richards had to do in LA last season.
I don't think the B's want to play the season right at the cap - they'll want maneuver room for mid season.

 

[LogansDad]

Edit: not to mention that doing the same for Savard would afford $4m in space

I've been curious about how realistic this is.  
 
According to General Fanager:
 
The Caps, Jets, Devils, Flames, Sabres, Predators and Coyotes are all under the cap floor.  The first 4 will easily clear with just a couple of signed contracts, and the Sabres are ~$8 mil under so they can probably clear it pretty easily.  
 
Which leaves the Pred's and Coyotes as potential landing spot for Savard.  Would either of them do it for something like a dollar in cash considerations?  I am unfamiliar with how moving money like Savard's works, but it sure would be nice if the Bruins could get it off the books.  

 

[MiracleOfO2704]

It'd likely be similar to baseball, where in order to get the contract off the books, the team will get a low-end lottery ticket, someone that'll just end up in Reading (ECHL) or released with zero cap implications. Of course, that assumes the owners of the team getting Savard would be willing to pay his salary. In Nashville, that might be a given, but with the chaos around Arizona, they might not take him.

 

[RIFan]

I can't believe Chara is being thrown around in here as a guy we need to trade. Dougie may be a lot of things now or in the future, but shut down defenseman is not likely to be one of them. Chara is so far down the list of expendable players it's laughable to lump him with the likes of Lucic. They will find a way to fit Dougie in, but it's not likely to include Chara.

 

[jk333]

After Day 1, with Savard coming off the books, they'll still be tight with having (hopefully) signed Dougie, Connolly, Spooner, and another D-man.
If it looks like they'll be close to the cap, and Sweeney hasn't traded one of Lucic, Seids, Chara, or Kelly, I can see Smith (or possibly Kelly) spending a stint in the minors similar to what Richards had to do in LA last season.
I don't think the B's want to play the season right at the cap - they'll want maneuver room for mid season.

 
Anyone can be waived but Smith is on a 1 way deal. He won't (and shouldn't) be in the minors next year. Sweeney has to make room for Dougie by trading come combination of Smith/Lucic/Seids/Kelly/Savard.
 
This is another reason the Smith contract was poor.  It's value is fine but they were protected from an offer sheet on Smith by the NHL's compensation system. No team would offer him over 3.6/year and if another team offered 3.5 then you decide based on how the trade market looks and how negotiations have gone with Dougie.
 
In short, the Smith contract was unnecessary and doesn't help sign Dougie but he's an NHL player and won't be sent to the minors.

 

[MiracleOfO2704]

I can't believe Chara is being thrown around in here as a guy we need to trade. Dougie may be a lot of things now or in the future, but shut down defenseman is not likely to be one of them. Chara is so far down the list of expendable players it's laughable to lump him with the likes of Lucic. They will find a way to fit Dougie in, but it's not likely to include Chara.

Is it that crazy? I'm by no means in the "Trade Chara NOW!" camp, but he's 38, had some pretty serious knee damage last season, and wasn't a great puck mover when he was healthy. If someone offers a great deal and leaves no cap hit behind, don't you do more than explore the possibility?

 

[lexrageorge]

 
Anyone can be waived but Smith is on a 1 way deal. He won't (and shouldn't) be in the minors next year. Sweeney has to make room for Dougie by trading come combination of Smith/Lucic/Seids/Kelly/Savard.
 
This is another reason the Smith contract was poor.  It's value is fine but they were protected from an offer sheet on Smith by the NHL's compensation system. No team would offer him over 3.6/year and if another team offered 3.5 then you decide based on how the trade market looks and how negotiations have gone with Dougie.
 
In short, the Smith contract was unnecessary and doesn't help sign Dougie but he's an NHL player and won't be sent to the minors.

I never meant to imply that Smith would be in the AHL for the year.  I thought he could be a target for being sent down for one day and being recalled the next after Savard gets placed on LTIR.  But other posters have made the point that the risk of someone claiming Smith off waivers would be high.  Kelly and Seidenberg are still possibilities for the LTIR shell game, however. 
 
As for Chara, I don't think anyone is suggesting that he be part of a salary dump a-la Kelly.  He's definitely a useful player and a top pairing defenseman for most teams, including Boston.  However, if someone wanted him, the Bruins would have to listen and at least explore what they could get back in a trade.  I don't see it happening, however, for a number of reasons. 

 

[Eddie Jurak]

 
Anyone can be waived but Smith is on a 1 way deal. He won't (and shouldn't) be in the minors next year. Sweeney has to make room for Dougie by trading come combination of Smith/Lucic/Seids/Kelly/Savard.
 
This is another reason the Smith contract was poor.  It's value is fine but they were protected from an offer sheet on Smith by the NHL's compensation system. No team would offer him over 3.6/year and if another team offered 3.5 then you decide based on how the trade market looks and how negotiations have gone with Dougie.
 
In short, the Smith contract was unnecessary and doesn't help sign Dougie but he's an NHL player and won't be sent to the minors.

Chiarelli got out at EXACTLY the right time. Getting fired by the Bruins will go down as the best thing that ever happened to him, career wise.

 

[RIFan]

Is it that crazy? I'm by no means in the "Trade Chara NOW!" camp, but he's 38, had some pretty serious knee damage last season, and wasn't a great puck mover when he was healthy. If someone offers a great deal and leaves no cap hit behind, don't you do more than explore the possibility?

It's not crazy if you want to accept the next few years being bridge years. You're not going to bring back a much younger top 2 Dman in a trade for Chara. You would trade him for either a top 6 forward or some lottery ticket futures. There is no one remotely close to him on the roster that has his defensive zone capabilities. I might not expect him to return to 2011 level, but given his work ethic he'll rehab hard over the summer and be much better than last year.

 

[veritas]

I don't think the trade Chara idea is crazy, but it's very unlikely, and he definitely shouldn't be viewed as a salary dump.
 
It might make sense if it allows you to build long term depth at defense which they are severely lacking. But a Chara trade is not going to make them better this season.

 

[MiracleOfO2704]

It's not crazy if you want to accept the next few years being bridge years. You're not going to bring back a much younger top 2 Dman in a trade for Chara. You would trade him for either a top 6 forward or some lottery ticket futures. There is no one remotely close to him on the roster that has his defensive zone capabilities. I might not expect him to return to 2011 level, but given his work ethic he'll rehab hard over the summer and be much better than last year.

 
Few years? It'll be a shock if he's still playing in three. Yes, he's valuable to the Bruins, but not so valuable that his departure is going to suddenly set the team back irreparably for the rest of the decade. In fact, it's a thought process like this that can get teams in trouble. It's why a lot of us were against any kind of GFIN trade in February, and it's why saying that you just don't trade Chara no way no how is lunacy.
 

I don't think the trade Chara idea is crazy, but it's very unlikely, and he definitely shouldn't be viewed as a salary dump.
 
It might make sense if it allows you to build long term depth at defense which they are severely lacking. But a Chara trade is not going to make them better this season.

 
This is about how I view it. Again, I don't advocate shopping him, and you don't just send him away for a lottery ticket, but if his trade solves a problem for this team in the next year or two, while netting an NHL-ready talent in return without retaining any salary cap hit, you don't laugh the other GM off the phone.

 

[Toe Nash]

I can't believe Chara is being thrown around in here as a guy we need to trade. Dougie may be a lot of things now or in the future, but shut down defenseman is not likely to be one of them. Chara is so far down the list of expendable players it's laughable to lump him with the likes of Lucic. They will find a way to fit Dougie in, but it's not likely to include Chara.

"Shutdown defenseman" is a very narrow view of what a valuable dman is. Dougie was probably as good as Chara in possession stats last year (slightly better CF%, but slightly worse competition) and put up significantly more p/60 at even strength. They played together a lot but Chara's possession numbers took a bigger dip without Dougie than the other way around.
 
Dougie is not going to play the same game as Chara, but he is probably just as valuable already by virtue of his ability to tilt the ice in the Bruins' direction (and it's not like he's lost in his own zone). Post-Chara, the Bruins are not going to play the same way; they should focus on having great players rather than players who play a certain style.

 

[FelixMantilla]

Nice to see Haggs bitch-slapped.
 
http://www.stanleycupofchowder.com/2015/6/14/8775517/the-dougie-hamilton-saga-listening-to-the-critics-is-the-biggest

 

[cshea]

This is a few days old, but apparently the Oilers are kicking around an offer sheet to Hamilton. They seem to be the only true threat. They have the cap space, need and connection to Hamilton to make it happen. I think it is pointless though, as the Bruins should insta-match anything under the 4 first round pick level.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/post/_/id/38249/rumblings-offer-sheet-for-dougie-hamilton

Also re: Savard- He's tradeable. Arizona was rumored to be after him, and that was before the current fiasco in the desert. I'd imagine he is more attractive to them now with their current mess. Helps them get to the cap floor without the Arizona ownership having to pay out a penny, since insurance is covering his salary. It'll be like the Thomas-to-NYI deal. Same philosophy. They can trade him for a conditional pick where the condition will never be met.

 

[Dummy Hoy]

Why would you wait and allow Edmonton to dictate the terms of the contract when you could just get it done now?

 

[kenneycb]

This is a few days old, but apparently the Oilers are kicking around an offer sheet to Hamilton. They seem to be the only true threat. They have the cap space, need and connection to Hamilton to make it happen. I think it is pointless though, as the Bruins should insta-match anything under the 4 first round pick level.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/post/_/id/38249/rumblings-offer-sheet-for-dougie-hamilton

Also re: Savard- He's tradeable. Arizona was rumored to be after him, and that was before the current fiasco in the desert. I'd imagine he is more attractive to them now with their current mess. Helps them get to the cap floor without the Arizona ownership having to pay out a penny, since insurance is covering his salary. It'll be like the Thomas-to-NYI deal. Same philosophy. They can trade him for a conditional pick where the condition will never be met.

Per Friedman, about 60% of it is picked up by insurance but Savard is only owed $525k in actual cash because of his contract structure.  So a team would only be on the hook for $240k per year with a $4 million cap hit.
 
http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/eye-on-hockey/25138347/nhl-rumors-bruins-could-look-to-trade-marc-savards-contract

 

[AgentOrange]

Obviously the biggest factor here should be the Bruins' desire to keep Hamilton. But how much of a factor is Edmonton being Edmonton?

http://deadspin.com/where-dont-nhl-players-want-to-play-1686594660

It's not just coming in last in surveys like these; free agents consistently give the Oil a wide berth, Dustin Penner notwithstanding. Perhaps Hamilton wouldn't decline a lucrative Edmonton offer sheet, but there might be a game of chicken there where he really, really wants the Bruins to match.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

Could the Bruins demand this year's first round pick from Edmonton? Because that might change the calculus a little bit.

 

[cshea]

No, since Edmonton can't sign Hamilton to an offer sheet until 7/1, 5 days after McDavid becomes an Oiler.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

An interesting thought experiment, however, would be to see if they could work out a trade ahead of the draft that included that pick.
 
If the Oilers offered this year's 1st plus two future 1st round picks, I'd think long and hard about it.

 

[cshea]

They could certainly try that. I'd trade Hamilton straight up for that pick with nothing else included, but I just don't think it is a ealistic option. Edmonton's not going to do trade that pick.

If it got to trade discussions with the Oilers, I'd ask for either Hall or RNH plus their lower 1st round pick.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

The problem, of course, is that the Bruins would be dealing from a position of weakness (defense). They definitely need some changes up front, but losing Hamilton without any reinforcements in the minors would be a big blow.
 
The Oilers would need to fulfill that void somehow through a multitude of picks.
 
The Bruins really should be trying to sign Dougie before the offer sheets come in.

 

[RIFan]

The problem, of course, is that the Bruins would be dealing from a position of weakness (defense). They definitely need some changes up front, but losing Hamilton without any reinforcements in the minors would be a big blow.
 
The Oilers would need to fulfill that void somehow through a multitude of picks.
 
The Bruins really should be trying to sign Dougie before the offer sheets come in.

I think Chia laughs and politely declines any offer of Dougie for McDavid. If he was in win now mode and a defenseman away from being a contender he might consider it, but that obviously isn't the case.

But for giggles, if that were to happen the loss of Dougie could be addressed by moving Krejci for a D. Krejci would be somewhat expendable with McDavid on board and you would free up some salary.

 

[j44thor]

What about ANH who has 20M in cap space with just a few RFA's?  They might not need a D but when you can add a franchise level D you shouldn't hesitate.  ANH can comfortably offer up #1s knowing they aren't going to be lottery picks, something EDM can't say for sure.
 
Anything around 8M per year is tough for BOS but would be easy for ANH to manage.  

 

[Lupe Whalewatch]

Seriously, let the offer sheets come in. The compensation makes it worth it if the price is too high. I have no problem with Sweeney waiting to see what offer sheets come in.

 The Bruins really should be trying to sign Dougie before the offer sheets come in.

Are you saying you could go either way on this?

 

[FL4WL3SS]

I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT I'M SAYING.

 

[BoSoxFink]

There is no fucking chance Edmonton offers this years first pick for Dougie, never mind throwing in 2 more firsts. That's crazy talk. Edmonton wouldn't trade that pick for much of anything I would think right now. When you have the next generational player drop in your lap, you don't trade it.

 

[McDrew]

Is the compensation in the next draft(regardless) or the draft of the following season?