The 2015 QB Prospects: Mariota vs. Winston

[Super Nomario]

Why is it assumed that the Titans will pass on a QB at #2? Mettenberger completed less than 60% of his passes and his 8 TD / 7 INT ratio isn't blowing wind up anyone's skirt. Tennessee lost all seven games he appeared in, not scoring more than 24 points in any. He took a ton of sacks, too. He was a sixth-rounder so it's not like they have anything invested in him. Please tell me they're not giving Jake Locker another go.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Why is it assumed that the Titans will pass on a QB at #2? Mettenberger completed less than 60% of his passes and his 8 TD / 7 INT ratio isn't blowing wind up anyone's skirt. Tennessee lost all seven games he appeared in, not scoring more than 24 points in any. He took a ton of sacks, too. He was a sixth-rounder so it's not like they have anything invested in him. Please tell me they're not giving Jake Locker another go.

The conventional wisdom (which could well be wrong) seems to be that the Titans would jump at the chance to draft Winston but might be cool on Mariota, since he's not the type of QB Whisenhunt has preferred in the past and since Whisenhunt might be under pressure to win in 2015 and Mariota won't be ready to just throw into the fray immediately.

 

[dcmissle]

Some things just speak for themselves, via PFT:

"According to Jeff McLane of the Philadelphia Inquirer, the office of the executive V.P. of football operations has moved out of football operations, to the business end of the NovaCare Complex. Roseman previously was located only two doors down from the head coach; Kelly for the last two years and Andy Reid before that.

The move underscores the reality that the executive V.P. of football operations doesn’t really have much if any power over football operations. Which makes his comments from last week regarding the folly of trading up even more conspicuous, especially if the guy who now has the power to do so in Philly chooses to do so."

"[T]he comments from last week" were made by Howie at an MIT symposium re analytics. He said that teams that trade up in the NFL draft get burned more often than not. It may be a parting shot for posterity. Redskins hold the #5 pick, one ahead of the Jets.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

If I'm Tenn and I'm not sold on Mariota, I'm calling up Chip Kelly and seeing how many draft picks he's willing to attach to Nick Foles in exchange for #2. 
 
Foles+ #20+ '16 1st? More? Less? 

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

If I'm Tenn and I'm not sold on Mariota, I'm calling up Chip Kelly and seeing how many draft picks he's willing to attach to Nick Foles in exchange for #2. 
 
Foles+ #20+ '16 1st? More? Less? 

 
I think Tennessee might just let it ride with Mettenberger if they're not picking Mariota.  They probably just forget Foles and  ask for the most draft compensation possible.
 
The cost of these trade up deals is really hard to predict.  Sellers will try to use the RGIII trade package as a baseline but that price was ludicrous.

 

[Super Nomario]

 
I think Tennessee might just let it ride with Mettenberger if they're not picking Mariota.  They probably just forget Foles and  ask for the most draft compensation possible.
 
The cost of these trade up deals is really hard to predict.  Sellers will try to use the RGIII trade package as a baseline but that price was ludicrous.

The recent other examples I can think of are:
 
2014: Buffalo trades year+1 1st, 4th to move up from 9th to 4th
2011: Atlanta trades 2nd, 4th, year+1 1st, 2nd to move up from 27th to 6th
 
For Philly to move up from the 20's to #2, the price is going to be high.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

The recent other examples I can think of are:
 
2014: Buffalo trades year+1 1st, 4th to move up from 9th to 4th
2011: Atlanta trades 2nd, 4th, year+1 1st, 2nd to move up from 27th to 6th
 
For Philly to move up from the 20's to #2, the price is going to be high.

 
There was also Miami trading a 2nd to Oakland to move up from 12th to 3rd in 2013.  But that trade was definitely the outlier on the cheap side and that draft was widely considered pretty awful at the top.
 
I agree that it will cost Philly a ton and probably be a bad trade (I'd certainly consider all the aforementioned trades bad for the team moving up, except for the Miami one).  You'd have to be absolutely convinced about Mariota becoming an upper tier QB to make that kind of deal worthwhile.  Kelly has much more information about him than your average coach but there is still so much uncertainty about how QBs translate to the NFL.

 

[Hagios]

I was reading an article about spread QB's and stumbled across this beautiful 1999 Malcolm Gladwell piece on physical genius. 
 
 
 

Most great offensive players prefer to keep the rest of the action on the ice behind them—to try to make the act of scoring be just about themselves and the goalie. Gretzky liked to keep the action in front of him. He would set up by the side of the rink, or behind the opposing team's net, so that the eleven other players on the ice were in full view, and then slide the perfect pass to the perfect spot. He made hockey look easy, even as he was playing in a way that made it more complicated. Gzowski says that Gretzky could do that because, like master chess players, he wasn't seeing all eleven other players individually; he was seeing only chunks.  

 
 
This is something I've always been very curious about because I can only marvel from the outside at the people who have these gifts. I think Winston is going to be the better QB for similar reasons.

 

[dcmissle]

 
There was also Miami trading a 2nd to Oakland to move up from 12th to 3rd in 2013.  But that trade was definitely the outlier on the cheap side and that draft was widely considered pretty awful at the top.
 
I agree that it will cost Philly a ton and probably be a bad trade (I'd certainly consider all the aforementioned trades bad for the team moving up, except for the Miami one).  You'd have to be absolutely convinced about Mariota becoming an upper tier QB to make that kind of deal worthwhile.  Kelly has much more information about him than your average coach but there is still so much uncertainty about how QBs translate to the NFL.

If Chip calls me about a trade around 5 or 6 in the first round, I'm hard lining him.

I like him, and I think his bold reconstruction of the Eagles is very interesting, and I think he may have more security than people think if things go south: Lurie tends to be patient, and Chip has a lifetime of opportunities at the college level if this craters.

But you have to believe that if, as is said, the only things that really matter to him on offense are the QB and o-line, I'm putting a very expensive price tag on that Duck QB. Far closer to RGIII deal than any of those other deals.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

If Chip calls me about a trade around 5 or 6 in the first round, I'm hard lining him.

I like him, and I think his bold reconstruction of the Eagles is very interesting, and I think he may have more security than people think if things go south: Lurie tends to be patient, and Chip has a lifetime of opportunities at the college level if this craters.

But you have to believe that if, as is said, the only things that really matter to him on offense are the QB and o-line, I'm putting a very expensive price tag on that Duck QB. Far closer to RGIII deal than any of those other deals.

 
Oh absolutely. If I'm WAS I'm doing back flips if Mariota is still on the board at 5. "Oh hey Chip, you want #5 so the Jets don't take him at #6? Yeah, we'll take all of your picks. Thanks." 
 
I'd love to see just how much Chip is willing to give up to get him. 

 

[DJnVa]

If Mariota is there when the Jets pick, does it not seem to make a lot of sense, as a basic outline, for Philly to send them a first rounder and Nick Foles for that pick if they want him? Philly can ran Sanchez out there until they feel Mariota is ready.
 
 
EDIT: And ixnay on that idea.

 

[soxhop411]

Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheet 2m2 minutes ago
Interesting. @MoveTheSticks says good thing Marcus Mariota threw at the Combine, which was far better than his pro day. Rarely hear that.

 

[dcmissle]

We have non frivolous people hinting that the order of QBs may be he the reverse of what almost everyone has thought for weeks at least -- Jaws and Mayock.

 

[soxhop411]

@MBakerTBTimes: BREAKING: Jameis Winston has been sued over sexual assault allegation.

 

[pjr]

https://twitter.com/MBakerTBTimes/status/588805332459225088
 
Matt BakerVerified account ‏@MBakerTBTimes 10m10 minutes ago
To clarify as I feverishly write, suit was filed by Erica Kinsman, the accuser of Dec. 2012 incident. Story will be posting ASAP

 

[jmm57]

http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2015/insider/story/_/id/12715733/football-outsiders-projection-system-thinks-jameis-winston-bust-2015-nfl-draft

Interesting Football Outsiders projections on the QBs of the 2015 draft. Likes Mariotta (and Hundley) MUCH better than Winston.

 

[tims4wins]

Late breaking riser
 
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:12781788

 

[Super Nomario]

Did everyone read mascho's epic breakdown on Mariota?
 
Part 1: http://insidethepylon.com/nfl/nfl-draft/2015/04/27/strengths-and-weaknesses-of-marcus-mariota/
Part 2: http://insidethepylon.com/nfl/nfl-draft/2015/04/28/the-transition-of-marcus-mariota-to-the-nfl/
Part 3: http://insidethepylon.com/nfl/nfl-draft/2015/04/29/three-reasons-marcus-mariota-should-go-1-overall/
 
Great stuff there. Mark was able to find quite a few NFL-caliber throws that suggest the transition to the NFL isn't going to be as dramatic as some pundits think.