Some discussion of this in other threads, but I think it’s a worthy topic in its own right.
The C’s have 10 players who could reasonably expect to play heavy minutes: Kyrie, Hayward, Horford, Tatum, Brown, Smart, Baynes, Rozier, MaMo, and Theis. Conventional wisdom says that’s one too many.
Danny and Brad might believe they can buck the conventional wisdom. Kyrie and Hayward will probably combine for 15 healthy scratches (can’t see either playing more than 75 games), and Horford would benefit from similar treatment. Plus, Brad seems to give his 10th and 11th men more meaningful minutes than most coaches, even when the guys in those roles are shaky. So if you assume average injury luck (i.e., that the C’s are without one of these guys for a majority of their regular season games), perhaps there are enough minutes to go around.
If Danny decides he’s got one man too many, the trade candidates would seem to be MaMo, Rozier, and Theis. (A blockbuster deal that shortens the rotation is also possible, but I’m personally not going to go down that speculative wormhole.) All are FAs next summer; the C’s will have matching rights as to Rozier and Theis. Rozier and MaMo have Bird rights; I’m not sure about Theis.
I think Theis is the least likely to be dealt, as they’d be left without a conventional big on the roster if Baynes got hurt.
We’ve discussed Rozier trades at length — he’s probably the most valuable trade asset of the three, and we’ll lose him for nothing next summer if Kyrie resigns, but we don’t know how confident Danny is about that happening.
MaMo is the most easily replaceable (Semi would be an acceptable 10th man), but MaMo has little trade value imo, at least in terms of the kind of deal the C’s would want to do. Nobody is giving up a 1st round pick for MaMo. He’s an expiring contract, but teams that want those are looking to trade away guys who are under contract for longer periods, and the C’s definitely don’t want that. The C’s could exchange him for someone else’s rotation guy, but that doesn’t solve the problem. So if MaMo gets dealt, I think it’s just a salary dump.
I’m in the “keep them all” camp, assuming a non-contender won’t give you a 1st rounder for Rozier, but that might be giving Brad too much credit for his ability to spread around minutes and keep everyone happy.
What do y’all think?
The C’s have 10 players who could reasonably expect to play heavy minutes: Kyrie, Hayward, Horford, Tatum, Brown, Smart, Baynes, Rozier, MaMo, and Theis. Conventional wisdom says that’s one too many.
Danny and Brad might believe they can buck the conventional wisdom. Kyrie and Hayward will probably combine for 15 healthy scratches (can’t see either playing more than 75 games), and Horford would benefit from similar treatment. Plus, Brad seems to give his 10th and 11th men more meaningful minutes than most coaches, even when the guys in those roles are shaky. So if you assume average injury luck (i.e., that the C’s are without one of these guys for a majority of their regular season games), perhaps there are enough minutes to go around.
If Danny decides he’s got one man too many, the trade candidates would seem to be MaMo, Rozier, and Theis. (A blockbuster deal that shortens the rotation is also possible, but I’m personally not going to go down that speculative wormhole.) All are FAs next summer; the C’s will have matching rights as to Rozier and Theis. Rozier and MaMo have Bird rights; I’m not sure about Theis.
I think Theis is the least likely to be dealt, as they’d be left without a conventional big on the roster if Baynes got hurt.
We’ve discussed Rozier trades at length — he’s probably the most valuable trade asset of the three, and we’ll lose him for nothing next summer if Kyrie resigns, but we don’t know how confident Danny is about that happening.
MaMo is the most easily replaceable (Semi would be an acceptable 10th man), but MaMo has little trade value imo, at least in terms of the kind of deal the C’s would want to do. Nobody is giving up a 1st round pick for MaMo. He’s an expiring contract, but teams that want those are looking to trade away guys who are under contract for longer periods, and the C’s definitely don’t want that. The C’s could exchange him for someone else’s rotation guy, but that doesn’t solve the problem. So if MaMo gets dealt, I think it’s just a salary dump.
I’m in the “keep them all” camp, assuming a non-contender won’t give you a 1st rounder for Rozier, but that might be giving Brad too much credit for his ability to spread around minutes and keep everyone happy.
What do y’all think?