With the C’s already $8M over the luxury tax threshold despite an incomplete roster, how much do you envision ownership agreeing to pay in real dollars to retain Grant?
The Celtics Offseason
- Thread starter kazuneko
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Heavy twitter rumoring, including the fairly reliable Mark Stein, that Houston is going to spend on Van Vleet and Dillon Brooks...which would take them out of Grant sweepstakes. I agree with you they are the one team that might have made such an offer otherwise (though, also agreeing with you, probably wouldn't)
I have been lower on Grant's market than consensus and still think he's going to be disappointed, but we'll see...it only takes one team. I also do wonder if Celts are willing to top second apron right now - I don't think that's a full no-go right now (they can make other choices later)...again, just my view.
Asset-wise, Celtics really want to get something for him even if they choose not to retain him.
Javonte Green looks like he’d like a reunion with Boston and probably won’t cost more than the vet minimum. Celtics are also reportedly interested in spurs free agent Keira Bates-Diop. Both look like good signings if they really end up on vet minimums.
https://heavy.com/sports/boston-celtics/free-agent-rumors-keita-bates-diop/amp/
https://heavy.com/sports/boston-celtics/free-agent-rumors-keita-bates-diop/amp/
The Celtics are not going to give someone a draft pick for Williams to leave for nothing. If there’s a sign & trade there will be a pick or two coming back. If the rumors of the Porzingis extension are true Boston can’t afford to give players away. They will need draft picks to fill in around the roster as the middle class salaries are shed.
I think they might, if it's part of a 3 way (or 2 part) trade where they already have a target. I don't think they do it for a TPE to sit on.
One thing new this year that hurts a bit is... you used to be able to get a TPE on a RFA easily because a team didn't want to wait to see if you'd match and have their cap tied up for days... less of a concern now with the 24 hour match, gives more leverage to a team with cap space that doesn't think you really want to match. So if HOU plans to blow the market out of the water with a deal starting at say... 18M a year for Grant? They might easily extract a 2nd out of us in a 3 way deal because they know we don't want Grant on that deal and that whether he'd be an asset in a year's time for us is a real doubt.
A pick coming back for Grant.... maybe, but that would require his preferred offer to be from a team with no cap space, I really doubt a cap space team is giving up assets for Grant, they'd rather just add some negatives to the deal for us and dare us to match.
The most likely scenario where we get something of value back from Grant is a team that wants him, and a team that is willing to eat a deal to send us a player we want in the sub full MLE price bracket. In that case the team getting Grant might pay most of the price for the player and send an expiring deal they don't want to the 3rd team for cap purposes.
I don't expect this at all. Matching a deal for Grant may not hurt as much this year but will create issues in roster structure in coming years. Grant isn't a guy to keep that will create all these issues that would cost us a more valuable player next summer.
I could see them matching if it's something like $12M a year, given that is useless in a S&T and it's basically a 1 year hit (or half year) and you can easily trade him on that deal, but yeah, at higher levels you're not adding that salary, you're most likely trying to finagle it into a 3 way for someone you want on a smaller deal and might have to pay a 2nd to the offering team to make it happen.
They can always deal him into someone’s cap space next summer when the penalties do kick in. This summer’s list of teams with cap space is pretty short and about the only one that seems to have been linked to him is Indiana (and god only knows if there was any truth at all in that rumor). And the Pacers have their own future problems coming up with Haliburton’s extension next summer. Put another way, the teams with cap space aren’t the sort of teams that throw $80 million at older bench players in the hope that they magically discover another level of play. Grant is what he is, a useful player to be sure, but not a top 50 one. And he’s not going to get paid that way with the rules of the new CBA.
I’m skeptical the Celtics are as worried about the second apron as folks here think. We’re going to almost certainly be above it in a year anyway. The Celtics have $101 million committed for 2024-25 already. Once they resign Jaylen and Porzingis that will be about $190 million, which would still basically put them at/over the second apron with just 1 MLE deal plus min contracts. In other words, unless they dump salary, we’re going to be operating either above or fully constrained by the second apron on everything except the draft pick trade issue next offseason/season.
In that world, it may actually be better to have Grant on a $10-15 million a year contract than an MLE player. Because we won’t be able to add salary or aggregate in trades. But we can still trade for less salary. So a $14 million a year Grant might get you a $12 million a year player you decide is a better fit. I could still see us letting Grant walk for cost reasons, but I don’t think it will be about cap management. I also think the Celtics will likely plan for a big cap jump in 2025 that will get them some breathing room and will make operating as a second apron team for 1-2 years less concerning.
I think this view is supported by the fact that we just added a bunch of salary in the Porzingis trade. The organization is being run to win now, and the risk of some limits on flexibility in two years isn’t going to impact making the moves that are best for winning this year.
In that world, it may actually be better to have Grant on a $10-15 million a year contract than an MLE player. Because we won’t be able to add salary or aggregate in trades. But we can still trade for less salary. So a $14 million a year Grant might get you a $12 million a year player you decide is a better fit. I could still see us letting Grant walk for cost reasons, but I don’t think it will be about cap management. I also think the Celtics will likely plan for a big cap jump in 2025 that will get them some breathing room and will make operating as a second apron team for 1-2 years less concerning.
I think this view is supported by the fact that we just added a bunch of salary in the Porzingis trade. The organization is being run to win now, and the risk of some limits on flexibility in two years isn’t going to impact making the moves that are best for winning this year.
Brad says today that the pocketbook is still open.
View: https://twitter.com/BrianTRobb/status/1674532518958071808
New: Brad Stevens said the Celtics have the 'green light' to add to Boston's pricy payroll even after landing Kristaps Porzingis. What that means heading into free agency.
View: https://twitter.com/BrianTRobb/status/1674532518958071808
New: Brad Stevens said the Celtics have the 'green light' to add to Boston's pricy payroll even after landing Kristaps Porzingis. What that means heading into free agency.
Yes, this team is all in on contending now.
Some of the concerns people have cited about team building seem to remind me of the concerns that others have cited whenever a so-called "super team" is created with a couple of top-heavy stars salary-wise, going back to the Pierce/Garnett/Allen days. You know what? Teams with three All-NBA/borderline players can and often do win titles. Last season, only 1 team had 3 players garnering All-NBA votes, and that was the Bucks with Brooks Lopez gathering a single vote. Porzingis had 2 votes last year.
Yes, there is the caveat of health. But the same applies to every single team every single season. Anthony Davis hasn't played more than 62 games in a season since forever. Kyrie hasn't broke 60 since leaving Boston. Unclear if Durant will play 60 games again. And don't get me started on Kawhi/PG.
A lot of the 2nd apron limitations do not apply this coming season, and it's not clear how much Boston would be hurt by them anyway this year. So it really is money, and Wyc has signaled his being open to buying a title if necessary. None of Boston's 3 stars have hit 30 yet.
Yes. I think Houston, San Antonio could be fits. Indiana and Detroit too.
I don't think Grant would be any of their first calls once FA opens, but he could be a fallback option for any of those teams looking to grab a younger free agent who's already proven to be good rotation player.
I've made similar point in a couple threads---they are (cap wise) going to be stuck with vet mins and draft picks anyway by the time they extend their top three guys. So the cost of second apron, while not zero, is also not that huge. Yeah, buyout guys---but the impact there is usually pretty low. I am not sure the size tax check they will write, but I do think there's a real chance they will choose talent over low-end flexibility
Ryan Bernadoni lays out the Celtics options as to how they'll build their roster going forward. The likeliest option to extend Jaylen Brown and Porzingis, play this year out with 3 star players, then trade Brown next offseason. His reasoning is that with the new CBA there will not be enough wiggle room to build a good enough roster with 2 super max players so going forward it will be built around Tatum and a cheaper 2nd star in Porzingis. The difference per year between a Brown and a Porzingis extension is around $13 million/year. So, the core in 2024 would be Tatum/KP/White/RWIII with more money to spend on the rest of the rotation.
It's pretty reasonable, not sure it's that much more likely than some of the other paths, but if Porzingis has another strong season after extending then you certainly have to think about it, he's arguably a better player than Jaylen and much cheaper, and Jaylen should bring a haul from a team better set up to utilize his strengths by making him the #1 option. Lot of interesting Jaylen trades out there. Of course 1 thing I think he might underrate.... if they win the title this year they will run it back, no team basically ever had blown up a title winner after the first ring just for money reasons.
Didn't the 2011 Mavs let a couple key guys go, including Tyson Chandler, with the idea that they could hit big in FA soon after? Obviously one exception in the last 15 years makes your point more than hurts it, but it does happen.
Also, the 2nd apron repeater consequences are so onerous that unprecedented things may happen anyway around the league....arguably, they already are.
Yes, the 2nd apron is a big factor. You could just choose to blow by it if your owner doesn't care but most are going to avoid the repeater taxes.
I agree with you but want to play devil's advocate on one thing.
If KP comes in here and outperforms Brown (a good thing for the C's) won't the haul be a lot less, especially if JB is making $60MM/yr? 2nd Team All-NBA is probably Jaylen's ceiling, especially with KP taking shots/pointZ away from Brown.
Shouldn't Brad be canvassing the NBA on Brown's trade value now, with the Super Max extension as the fallback position? (basically what @lovegtm has been advocating)
Yeah, small chance, but also those were like 4th best guys not guys you supermaxed.
I would guess if the Celtics win the title this year, Wyc tells Brad to run it back, then if they don't repeat you make the trade. Yes the punishments are onerous, but not that terrible for a 2-3 year window, especially if you're getting all the financial bumps that come with a title win.
I think it's unlikely. Seems to me if the core is Tatum, Brown, and Porzingis, Wyc is fine paying even the stiffest penalties because that's going to be, baring injury, an elite team. It's possible a couple of years into the Jaylen contract they could look to trade him if the team is not playing to expectations, but I don't think that's the plan. The plan is to dominate. I doubt it hinges on a title. Wyc knows that even elite teams don't always win the title. You often need a few bites at the apple and I think he gets that.
He should gauge his market. I'm sure they have a general idea. I don't know how he can do this without it becoming a media frenzy and disrupting an already fragile situation with JB. The last thing you want is a trade demand, which I'm sure JB has in his quiver.
No, I don't think so. Teams know what Brown is and what he isn't, outside of a catastrophic injury not much will change that for the negative this year. There are franchises likely willing to make him their centerpiece, having a long term deal, even at supermax makes him more attractive than a 1 year and hope situation. Especially teams that struggle to land FAs, and are not places stars force their way.
Also, I don't see a trade that makes the team better left out there. They aren't getting the Bridges deals, Lillard to me is a terrible move, etc.
I'd also say, Brad doesn't need to canvas the league, I'm sure every team that might have Jaylen interest has called by now with a "hypothetically if you moved him....." conversation. They'll offer him the supermax at 12:01, only way he gets traded this offseason is if he says he won't sign it.
I think they might do 2-3 years, after that it's not just about the money, it's that the team rots with all the other new restrictions and you can't win.
This is true, it's possible that they just say "fuck it, who cares if our pick in 7 years is #30, we probably have prime Jayson Tatum then anyway."
And I may be underestimating how good Brown will look if he can always share the floor with one of KP and JT.
Yeah, other than cash, the thing they stand to lose by going and staying over the 2nd apron is flexibility. But with Tatum, Brown and KP, they shouldn't need to add a star, and maybe they think if they can line up the right core of role players around those guys for the next three years or so, then flexibility be damned.
Looking at the roster, they've got a really solid group on paper of guys in or about to enter their primes. A list of role players that includes Derrick White, Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams, Grant Williams, and Al Horford is pretty good surrounding those three stars. I still think they need one more rotation-level wing, but they're close.
I'm surprised that the prevailing sentiment seems to be that the long-term outlook doesn't include Jaylen Brown, whether they sign him to the Supermax or not. I look at it more like this is the offseason to construct the best possible role players around your stars, because after this, they lose the ability to add much talent barring a really creative trade. I expect them to sign Grant, add a two-way wing with the MLE, and go from there. I'm well aware that that's an expensive roster, but I haven't seen any indication that they're willing to undercut the talent on the floor to save money. Not yet.
Looking at the roster, they've got a really solid group on paper of guys in or about to enter their primes. A list of role players that includes Derrick White, Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams, Grant Williams, and Al Horford is pretty good surrounding those three stars. I still think they need one more rotation-level wing, but they're close.
I'm surprised that the prevailing sentiment seems to be that the long-term outlook doesn't include Jaylen Brown, whether they sign him to the Supermax or not. I look at it more like this is the offseason to construct the best possible role players around your stars, because after this, they lose the ability to add much talent barring a really creative trade. I expect them to sign Grant, add a two-way wing with the MLE, and go from there. I'm well aware that that's an expensive roster, but I haven't seen any indication that they're willing to undercut the talent on the floor to save money. Not yet.
Also possible that Tatum/Brown have less PPG, but become way more efficient with KP. If Brown has a higher FG% and less TOs (and maybe more assists because he now has a guy who's almost impossible to miss with a pass), but he's only scoring 20PPG while playing better defense (b/c offensive load is lower), then maybe he's more attractive to teams even at that salary.
The way I would think about (for example) matching Grant vs staying below second apron is pretty simple: would you trade those things (ability to aggregate, vet buyouts etc) for Grant Williams?'
Talent wise answer is very likely no; flexibility wise while there are MORE moves and options if you stay under second apron, Grant is a real asset and probably worth more trade-wise than what you can get with any of them. Now, it's hard to limit yourself when you don't know what will happen---a run of injuries etc-- so there's reasons to say you want to leave those avenues open even if, in many scenarios, Grant is worth more than what you'll do with them...in scenarios you really need a certain buyout guy or a deaadline deal where you'd have to aggregate salaries it could really matter and you're hamstrung without the options.
So, it's not a no brainer to me at all. The other input is what the number is----Grant at (say) $18 mil is not a tradeable deal imo, and also probably not worth matching....but Grant at $12 mil is a different thing.
Talent wise answer is very likely no; flexibility wise while there are MORE moves and options if you stay under second apron, Grant is a real asset and probably worth more trade-wise than what you can get with any of them. Now, it's hard to limit yourself when you don't know what will happen---a run of injuries etc-- so there's reasons to say you want to leave those avenues open even if, in many scenarios, Grant is worth more than what you'll do with them...in scenarios you really need a certain buyout guy or a deaadline deal where you'd have to aggregate salaries it could really matter and you're hamstrung without the options.
So, it's not a no brainer to me at all. The other input is what the number is----Grant at (say) $18 mil is not a tradeable deal imo, and also probably not worth matching....but Grant at $12 mil is a different thing.
Yes, any exploration of a JB trade now has to be kept ultra top secret.
I don’t see it happening. Wyc and Brad made it clear already they are going all in this season. Future problems are something that can be solved in the future. Taking a major step back now on a dollar for pennies JB trade is just not on a Brad’s radar.
On the RealGM podcast with Keith Smith, one of the guys (I forget who) mentioned that the new CBA prevents 2nd apron teams from aggregating players outgoing but does not prevent teams from receiving multiple players incoming. (NOTE: the podcast was before the CBA release but in a quick look, I didn't see anything since the CBA was released that would contradict this. If someone knows this is not true, then I'm sure I'll be corrected.)
Assuming this is correct, then having a high figure contract guys like KP and JB will be an advantage to 2nd apron teams. If teams can receive multiple players back for one player (i.e., a $35M contract can be traded for a $20M player and a $15M player but a $20M contract and a $10M contract would have to be two separate trades). Even if 2nd apron teams are prevented from receiving multiple players back, the $35M salary slot will be worth a lot more in trades than a $20M salary slot and a $10M salary slot.
I'm sure POBOBS has informally canvassed the market but at the end of the day, the Cs are trying to win the championship this year and I doubt there's any trade for JB that would increase their chances of that this year.
So they will sign JB to the supermax (probably without a final year player option) and then worry about the salaries later. Seems like the Cs are going to be squarely in the 2nd apron for the foreseeable future.
Well he can do it by starting off a presser with the "news" that ownership told him it's ok to spend, spend, spend.....which is code for "Ok, here is the PR protection you need to do your due diligence."
It might be advantageous if you want to move a big salary, but it would make it much harder to add players like White, Brogdon, and recently Porzingis to your core.
Ryan's premise is that they're going all-in for this year with all 3 stars, but once the season is over they're going to trade Brown to keep their payroll flexibility due to the 2nd apron.
Frankly, that's insane---not that the idea they might deal someone next year is insane, but presuming that they know who it is or that they are going to do it before knowing if they won a title is nuts. I get why anyone might see Brown as more likely to be dealt, too.
But I am willing to bet a lot that if they win a title this year they are NOT then going to trade Jaylen because of second apron.
Is Bernadoni even that connected to the Cs? To me it feels like the Celtics are very good at keeping their proprietary information in-house, especially under Stevens.
To me it always feels like he and the other pods that cover the team are operating off of largely the same info we cite here. If that's the case they have incentives to speculate more if only because they need content to be viable.
Agreed. There is a lot of assuming going on. The most important factor will be the team results next year. Second, which players are responsible for those results. Finally, what is each player’s trade value. There is reason to believe big changes could happen a year from now, but we need to see what happens over the next year first.
no.
In fairness to him this came out of a thread where he was outlining the possible paths and this was the one he thought most likely.
On the other hand... while he has a pretty solid understanding of the cap rules, he's not very good at this. He's not Keith Smith (or even who Smith was before he went full-time national and got sources). This was the first lucid thing he's said in a week spent raging about the Smart trade like a child. And like much of what he does it was something where he decided on certain things and then took them as gospel. He often assumes that the way HE would handle the cap if a GM is how GMs will, and that owners won't spend, or that their past spending is indicative of what they will do with a real contender.
His stuff isn't worth much, but he's only Celtics focused and more willing to speculate on future cap machinations than someone like Smith or Bobby Marks so he comes up here.
That tracks with my perception.
There are other NBA local beat bloggers who seem to routinely get good information before its public but I can't recall the last time a blog broke a story about the Celtics. Maybe that's a good thing too.
I definitely see the vision. The limiting factor of planning to trade Brown next season is that the most likely suitors will have little to nothing to offer (for example, San Antonio).
It seems like the net effect of the new CBA is that it will force successful franchises to give away their 2nd/3rd best players to less successful ones. A lot of fighting the last battle in response to the GSW dynasty.
It seems like the net effect of the new CBA is that it will force successful franchises to give away their 2nd/3rd best players to less successful ones. A lot of fighting the last battle in response to the GSW dynasty.
Why would San Antonio have little to nothing to offer? Or more precisely why would they have nothing to offer next year compared to this year?
If a Brown trade happens it is because of the finances and any trade would be pick heavy anyway
Most teams can get to a Brown deal next year, ones that jump out are BKN, ATL, NOP, HOU, SA, ORL.... question will likely be how pick heavy are you willing to go on a deal.
Even Brad joked that maybe one day he’ll make a first round selection, but I don’t see him moving a core player in a pick heavy trade unless it’s a three-way deal that brings immediate help to Boston.
We don't know that the C's are going to offer Jaylen the max. If he were to accept an offer slightly less than the max this would give them more flexibility. I'd say it's very unlikely because he just came off a contract that was below market value, but it is possible. It's also possible they offer him a shorter contract, or they could include an opt-out clause. There's lots of ways it could go that give both Jaylen and the Celtics some flexibility.
Also, if he does indeed sign a supermax, the Celtics would have to wait a full year before they could trade him.
Yeah I know that he can't be traded for a year if he gets the super max. Ryan's premise is that a trade would happen next offseason.
One consideration, is that the second apron is also a hard cap. A team that uses any of the tools available to it (looser rules for matchign salary in trades, aggregating salary, MLE) because it was under the second apron at the time of the transaction is now hard capped at the second apron.
only 7 years out, so basically takes you from being able to offer 4 1sts to 3, but the pick to end of round 7 years out penalty is also a consideration, so as you spend time in the 2nd apron your tradeable picks become less valuable.
On his podcast this morning, Simmons relayed that Woj told SVP last night that the NBA has entered a new era where free agency is less important because players know they can demand a trade after a year or two even after signing a max deal. I think that's a two-way street, since teams can also make a "long-term commitment" to guys and then move off of them quickly. In that context, signing Jaylen with a plan to trade him in a year or two doesn't seem unreasonable -- you just have to hope he doesn't demand a trade sooner than you want him to.
You also have to hope 60M/year for Jaylen Brown isn't considered some albatross you have to staple assets to in a year to find a taker.
I generally like Jaylen but 2nd team all-NBA overrates the current version of him.
I'm OK with doing it if you have to, seeing how JT/JB/KP mix, hoping to win a title, and reassessing from there.
But Supermax for Jaylen does have some downside, it's not automatically as simple as "just trade him in a year" if you want.
people keep saying this.... he won't make 60M until the end of the extension (2027-28). And the cap is going up. 50M next year for Jaylen is not going to be an albatross unless he goes full Klay. He'll be making 7M more than Zach LaVine (you think the Bulls wouldn't jump to make that switch even with picks?).
It'll be a big contract, but given skill, age, etc... easily tradeable, likely for real assets.
This is where I've been for over a year now as well. I'm still not completely sold.
Rumor Celts are in on Pat Bev, which would make sense as a backfill for Smart's toughness and defense, in reduced minutes.