The Fat Panda Thread

[The X Man Cometh]

Big thing missing in all the Panda for Shields wishcasting...Shields has an opt-out after 2016 (in lieu of a no-trade clause).  He reportedly was seeking to sign on the west coast to be closer to home, which is part of why he was a late sign and barely on the radar for the Sox and others.  If he's traded to the Red Sox, I would expect it's all but guaranteed he'd opt out of his deal.  So while from a financial standpoint, that might be a plus (particularly compared to the Sandoval commitment), it isn't one that the Red Sox should be handing over long range cost-controlled prospects/players like JBJ or Marrero for.  Straight up Shields for Panda is one thing, throwing in additional value for the privilege of having James Shields for at most a year and change...not a good move.

 
I don't get this calculus at all: The Sox are on the hook for Sandoval in 2017-2019. If Shields opted out, then they'd have turned a blocked CF who can't get over the Mendoza line, and an org SS, into a $60M get-out-of-jail-free card and a hole at 3B where they can put a different replacement level player. How much surplus value do you ascribe to JBJ and Marrero?

 

[curly2]

 The contract for Panda was, again, in my opinion, too long and for a smidge too much, but that's life at the free agency table.

 
Sometimes it's best if you CAN'T shop at Tiffany's.
 
Whether the Pirates were geniuses or just got lucky because they couldn't spend money, they will get five years of Jung Ho Kang, who's got a 3.5 WAR, tops on their team, for less than what the Sox are paying Sandoval THIS year.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

 
I don't get this calculus at all: The Sox are on the hook for Sandoval in 2017-2019. If Shields opted out, then they'd have turned a blocked CF who can't get over the Mendoza line, and an org SS, into a $60M get-out-of-jail-free card and a hole at 3B where they can put a different replacement level player. How much surplus value do you ascribe to JBJ and Marrero?

 
12 combined years of control is what I attribute to JBJ and Marrero.  I don't see JBJ as a blocked CF at all, considering there's a WIDE OPEN spot on the roster for a RF, not to mention a 4th OF spot which has value if one of your starters is Hanley.  And one poor season isn't enough for me to write him off as unable to get over the Mendoza line ever, particularly with his seeming recovery in Pawtucket this year.  Marrero I'm less concerned with losing, but I think he can be utilized for more than a "get out of jail" card, particularly since I'm not sold on Sandoval being unsalvagable going forward.
 
The whole thing is wishcasting anyway, so there isn't much to be gained debating it.

 

[nvalvo]

 
Uhh, what?  Shields' HR/FB rate is 17% this year - his career rate is 11.5%.  I suspect that a big chunk of his HR rate is just dumb luck this year.  In fact, his xFIP is the lowest it has been since 2012, so the peripherals outside HR rate say he's pitching as well as ever.
 
As for JBJ and Marrero, neither has a clear path to a role with this franchise.  There's an OF logjam and Bradley has never shown an ability to hit at the MLB level.  Perhaps he is a late bloomer like Cameron Maybin, but for now he's expendable.  Marrero is even moreso - completely blocked by Bogaerts and Pedroia, and not hitting particularly well.  Both are 24-25, with little left to show in the minors but no future in the majors.
 
I'd sign up to this deal in a heartbeat.  Even if both Shields and Sandoval flop, at least Shields' deal is one year closer to being over with.  For 2016, the team can go with a combo of Holt and someone cheap like Uribe or Sean Rodriguez, perhaps move Hanley back to 3rd, use their remaining payroll flexibility on David Freese, or sign Howie Kendrick and shift him there.  Or swing a trade - there are almost 20 3rd basemen on pace for 2+ WAR seasons; it's not like finding a productive 3B is some mystical unicorn.  Mike Moustakas is about to get very expensive for the Royals, so perhaps they would be open to trade him to reload their farm system; same for Trevor Plouffe and the Twins.  I am fairly confident the Sox could get Martin Prado for nothing but absorbing his contract.

We disagree.

In Panda, I see a pretty mediocre player. But his numbers (offensive and defensive) look *way* worse because the team refused to DL him after the HBP on his knee. Check out the game logs: in the next two weeks, he went 8/50 with no power and a whole slew of errors. A stretch like that puts a damper on anyone's half-season numbers. I'm not saying he's been good otherwise, and I'm not optimistic about this deal working out well, but I'd be hesitant to sell low at this time. He wouldn't be the first FA to recover from a poor first season.

Shields' xFIP remains good, but, along with the HR spike, his walk rate is the highest in his career. Those two together suggest a dramatic decline in command, which sounds to me like injury. Could be wrong.

Bradley's and Marrero's option years are basically our IF and OF depth for the next few seasons. I wouldn't deal those thoughtlessly.

 

[Scott Cooper]

What a shitty year.
 
I think Panda is an AVERAGE 3b....not terrible this year.  What shocks me is that they pay 20mil a season for a stellar 3b and a switch hitter to boot.  and one month into the deal we learn he's going to give up (can't hit) Switch hitter.
 
At the end of the day i think he's fine....but not for that money.
 
I feel that between both him and Hanley.....we are not getting what we thought we were.

 

[Reggie's Racquet]

What a shitty year.
 
I think Panda is an AVERAGE 3b....not terrible this year.  What shocks me is that they pay 20mil a season for a stellar 3b and a switch hitter to boot.  and one month into the deal we learn he's going to give up (can't hit) Switch hitter.
 
At the end of the day i think he's fine....but not for that money.
 
I feel that between both him and Hanley.....we are not getting what we thought we were.

What makes it more disconcerting is that management wouldn't pay that kind of money to keep Adrian Beltre and we had to suffer through the WMB era. I do know that was at a different time and situation.

 

[soxhop411]

What makes it more disconcerting is that management wouldn't pay that kind of money to keep Adrian Beltre and we had to suffer through the WMB era. I do know that was at a different time and situation.

no Jackie Bradley or Blake Swihart if we kept him

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

What makes it more disconcerting is that management wouldn't pay that kind of money to keep Adrian Beltre and we had to suffer through the WMB era. I do know that was at a different time and situation.

 
Can you say revisionist history?  Adrian Beltre and WMB are entirely UNCONNECTED.  There was never EVER a Beltre vs WMB decision made by the Boston Red Sox.
 
The choice was Adrian Gonzalez (who they paid significantly more money to than Beltre got, so it wasn't a cost-saving decision) and moving Youk to 3B versus re-signing Adrian Beltre.  No one was even remotely considering the prospects of a single-A prospect (who hit .276/.331/.439 while striking out 25% of the time that season) eventually becoming the starting 3B.  WMB only emerged on anyone's radar after a good 2011 in Portland and a monster start to 2012 in Portland and then Pawtucket...and because Kevin Youkilis physically fell apart playing 3B full time.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

I think Panda is less of a problem than Hanley.  Panda has been a quality defensive player throughout his career and so there is hope he will return to form in 2016.  Hanley can't play LF, and he probably can't play 1b either.  I don't know what you do with him--Hanley will continue to hurt the team in 2016 (assuming Ortiz doesn't retire).  I'm inclined to support trading Hanley and a boatload of money to make the problem go away.  If the Red Sox are serious about improving pitching and defense next season, and the big guy Ben said they were, then it follows that Hanley does not have a role on the 2016 team.

 

[MuzzyField]

I'd trade the picks to have had AB's productivity at 3B over these multiple years.  
 
The problem I have with the FO over Beltre is that they signed him to the 1-year deal to let him reestablish himself, and other than taking out some teammates with some "rock solid" defensive hustle, he did just that.
 
The FO had a front row seat to evaluate him and he performed in the bright lights of Boston (something the Lugo's and Crawford's of the world weren't able to do) and there was never any realistic possibility Beltre would be retained.
 
While Beltre passed his audition, the FO, as Red points out, was locked-in on acquiring Adrian Gonzalez and they did.  While I don't think trading for AG was a failure of FO tunnel-vision, the Lugo's and Crawford's of the world are examples where the lust to acquire a targeted player became a bit extreme.  
 
After another offseason of subtraction by addition roster building something is broken, and it's not just the scale in the clubhouse, it is a Panda thread!  
 
JWH has a mess to fix, I hope he's up to the challenge. 
 
FSB, It's time to fix this so the team stops adding problems that require shipping off a boatload of money, and an inept willing trade partner, to fix.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

FSB, It's time to fix this so the team stops adding problems that require shipping off a boatload of money, and an inept willing trade partner, to fix.
 

 
Agreed; the front office needs to make better decisions than the flawed decision-making that led to signing Hanley Ramirez in the first place.  But Hanley is already here and so the Red Sox must be realists about this.  If the Red Sox want to make significant defensive strides in 2016, they can't continue to play a DH in the field (or can they?).  They need to move him out, but that will require a boatload of money, since no one wants Hanley Ramirez at his current cost.