The Fat Panda Thread

[Toe Nash]

 
It does not remain to be seen. The sample is not predictive. End of sentence. If it turns out that he continues to have a UZR similar to that over a proper sample, the sample that exists now does not retroactively become predictive.
 
As for the eye test, our eyes are only so trustworthy and our biases have a heavy impact on how we interpret what we are seeing. He hasn't been good defensively, but there are a number of possible reasons for that, and it's not unreasonable to be optimistic that he's going to settle in and be an average to somewhat above average defender again in the future.

Fine. It remains to be seen if the godawful range will continue or he will lose weight again or do whatever he needs to become an adequate 3B. But as he ages it becomes more unreasonable to expect that and in the meantime he's having a terrible season defensively that counts and impacts the team.
 
His DRS by year at third: -11, 1, 15, -5, -5, 4, -11. -12 for his career in 7 years and not a good trend
UZR (rounding to whole runs): -4, -1, 13, 1, -5, 4, -13. -4 in 7 years. 
 
And the very good year is now 5 years ago. Why is it reasonable to expect him to settle in? Maybe we throw out both positive and negative outliers? Then he's -16 in DRS and -4 in UZR.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

What you have is an outlier last year in DRS from what otherwise looks like a roughly average defender. Could be that he really did go from slightly above average to falling off the cliff bad, or it could be that the single season sample from 2014 isn't really indicative of his true talent level. The UZR numbers look a little more trustworthy to me, but again, include an outlier 4 season ago. Again, probably about average defensively if you consider that 13 in 2011 to not be indicative of his true talent level.
 
As for why it's reasonable to expect him to settle in? Well, for one, players don't usually fall off a cliff defensively before hitting 30 without a serious injury and it can take some time to get used to a new infield with new teammates, new defensive shift schemes, new tendencies on playing in, playing the lines, playing back, ect, as was mentioned above.

 

[Plympton91]

What you have is an outlier last year in DRS from what otherwise looks like a roughly average defender. Could be that he really did go from slightly above average to falling off the cliff bad, or it could be that the single season sample from 2014 isn't really indicative of his true talent level. The UZR numbers look a little more trustworthy to me, but again, include an outlier 4 season ago. Again, probably about average defensively if you consider that 13 in 2011 to not be indicative of his true talent level.
 
As for why it's reasonable to expect him to settle in? Well, for one, players don't usually fall off a cliff defensively before hitting 30 without a serious injury and it can take some time to get used to a new infield with new teammates, new defensive shift schemes, new tendencies on playing in, playing the lines, playing back, ect, as was mentioned above.

 
Major league baseball players at skill positions don't usually operate at 280 pounds either.
 
And even if we take your most favorable interpretation, they signed a guy with a 739 OPS who was an average defender at 3B and had a history of weight-related performance declines to a 5 year - $95 million contract.
 
Explain to me why anyone in their right mind would expect that to work out well?

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

 
Major league baseball players at skill positions don't usually operate at 280 pounds either.
 
And even if we take your most favorable interpretation, they signed a guy with a 739 OPS who was an average defender at 3B and had a history of weight-related performance declines to a 5 year - $95 million contract.
 
Explain to me why anyone in their right mind would expect that to work out well?

 
Because last year a .715 OPS was league average for third basemen and he has, historically, brought value to the field with his glove? Or because they looking to replace Will Middlebrooks and had zero minor league depth to speak of when they signed him. Sure, Hanley could have taken over at third, but if health concerns exist for him in left, they would surely have existed at third and it makes sense to move to the outfield where he would, presumably, be diving a lot less. The merits of the contract have been explained numerous times already. That's no guarantee that it'll work out but the rationale is there and has been for a long time. There is also a pretty good breakdown at the dot com.

 

[jscola85]

 
Because last year a .715 OPS was league average for third basemen and he has, historically, brought value to the field with his glove? Or because they looking to replace Will Middlebrooks and had zero minor league depth to speak of when they signed him. Sure, Hanley could have taken over at third, but if health concerns exist for him in left, they would surely have existed at third and it makes sense to move to the outfield where he would, presumably, be diving a lot less. The merits of the contract have been explained numerous times already. That's no guarantee that it'll work out but the rationale is there and has been for a long time. There is also a pretty good breakdown at the dot com.

 
Is there any indication that injury rates are higher at 3rd than LF?  Also, the fact that Ramirez is already familiar playing an infield position may reduce his risk vs. playing a position he's never done before.  I'd imagine the injury rate is higher for someone with zero experience at a position.  Maybe the daily grind at 3rd is tougher but that could be worked through by using a super-sub like Holt at 3rd and perhaps easing Hanley into left field with occasional play there plus lots of practice reps.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

He played zero games at third in 2014 and zero in 2013. He was moving to a position he hadn't played regularly since 2012, so I don't really see a lot of difference in that regard. As for how the injury risk manifests, that depends on what was giving him trouble while playing short. Was it ranging on fly balls? Leaping up in the air? Running into walls? Diving to his left or right? Collisions with runners sliding into the base? Planting and throwing? Reaching up? Reaching to the side? Reaching down? Bending? Stretching? Different defensive positions require different combinations of a lot of different types of movement. It's entirely possible that Hanley wanted to move to a position that required less of the things a third baseman does, or that the Red Sox preferred it.
 
All this is to say that signing Pablo to play third makes sense, even when you consider that Hanley signed with the team very shortly before him because so many factors are at play. If we are asking why signing Sandoval to a 5 year contract was a good idea, we have to consider more than the fact that Hanley played 97 games at third base in 2012 or Panda's 2014 OPS in a vacuum.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Considering the Red Sox weren't the only team making him offers in the neighborhood of what he signed for, perhaps it's not so outlandish to think people in their right mind expected it to work out okay.  A.J. Preller might not be proving to be of "right mind" as a GM in San Diego, but Brian Sabean certainly seemed keen enough on keeping Sandoval to make a competitive offer, and I would think the GM of a team that has won 3 championships in the last 5 years at least kinda knows what he's doing.  At the very least, he had an up close look at Sandoval's entire career on and off the field to base his decision on, not just video and scouting reports, and he was still in on him to the end.
 
To say the signs were there and the Sox ignored them means other, arguably better/smarter/shrewder, GMs did so too.  Makes me think things weren't so obvious.

 

[Reverend]

What you have is an outlier last year in DRS from what otherwise looks like a roughly average defender. Could be that he really did go from slightly above average to falling off the cliff bad, or it could be that the single season sample from 2014 isn't really indicative of his true talent level. The UZR numbers look a little more trustworthy to me, but again, include an outlier 4 season ago. Again, probably about average defensively if you consider that 13 in 2011 to not be indicative of his true talent level.

 
There's also the possibility that teams that use fielding analytics and more aggressively position their players inhibit the ability of UZR to assess them.
 
Per Josh Stein of the Padres, then director of baseball operations and now general manager:
 

“The biggest issue with UZR grades is that you don’t know where the player started on any given play,” Stein said. “UZR grades range, but that range can be skewed if the player is not starting from the exact middle of their chart.
 

 
We know the Red Sox aggressively position fielders. I don't know if the Giants do, but they are known to be highly data driven, so comparing the UZRs might be comparing one skewed, inaccurate sample to another skewed, inaccurate sample.
 
It seems to me that UZR is reporting levels of lost runs to two Red Sox players that are basically impossible based on the number of balls hit--HanRam's number is particularly absurd.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

 
There's also the possibility that teams that use fielding analytics and more aggressively position their players inhibit the ability of UZR to assess them.
 
Per Josh Stein of the Padres, then director of baseball operations and now general manager:
 
 
We know the Red Sox aggressively position fielders. I don't know if the Giants do, but they are known to be highly data driven, so comparing the UZRs might be comparing one skewed, inaccurate sample to another skewed, inaccurate sample.
 
It seems to me that UZR is reporting levels of lost runs to two Red Sox players that are basically impossible based on the number of balls hit--HanRam's number is particularly absurd.

I've said this a couple of times, but this really makes me think that the Red Sox positioning system is flawed. Or the players aren't buying into it. Panda and Ramirez are actually the two that I notice most often being in a really weird position to miss a play that most players would make. Panda plays in and/or off the line a lot. Ramirez also seems to play too deep at Fenway and too shallow in other parks.

 

[nvalvo]

 
It seems to me that UZR is reporting levels of lost runs to two Red Sox players that are basically impossible based on the number of balls hit--HanRam's number is particularly absurd.

 
I hear you, but we also have an entire pitching staff that was projected to be mediocre and has graded out really bad. Part of that is some surprisingly high HR allowed numbers. But not all of it: the staff as a whole has a 4.50 ERA and a 4.13 FIP. 
 
It may be that the Sox' defensive schemes are meshing with UZR in a way that blames our poor defensive efficiency disproportionately on Hanley and Panda. 

 

[soxhop411]

Red Sox manager John Farrell acknowledged Wednesday that Pablo Sandoval's weight is an issue.
It's the first time Farrell has addressed this topic since spring training, when he was in full support of Boston's new acquisition. The burly third baseman got thrown out at home on a ball he should have scored on Wednesday night against the White Sox and had to be lifted from the game two innings later due to dehydration. "There are ongoing efforts to support that, to try to get him in the best shape possible," said Farrell. "That's something Pablo has dealt with his entire career. It continues to be addressed."
Source: ESPN BostonJul 30 - 8:37 AM

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/45730/john-farrell-admits-that-pablo-sandovals-weight-needs-addressing

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

That link would be better suited for the "ESPN Is Pathetic" thread. At no point in the article is Farrell quoted as saying Panda's weight is a problem. Here's the actual quote from the article.
 

Granted, it was a hot night -- the temperature at game time was announced at 91 degrees. But when Farrell was asked if conditioning might also be an issue, he said: "That's something Pablo has dealt with his entire career. It continues to be addressed. I can't say tonight is a direct result of that. There are ongoing efforts to support that, to try to get him in the best shape possible."

 
They reversed the order of the sentences to make it sound more like he was agreeing that Panda is out of shape. And of course the cut out the most important sentence in the quote where Farrell specifically says he can't say that Panda coming out of the game was directly related to his conditioning. This is the kind of click bait you see on Buzzfeed.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Well, this could be that clubhouse controversy we've thus far avoided. Team gives fat guy $95M, surprised when he gets even fatter. It's like a headline from The Onion.

Will be interesting to see how there comments are received- Pablo didn't seem to take kindly to such comments from his old team, the one he won three rings with.

 
If the quote was actually as stated in Snod's post, I can't see Pablo getting to worked up since Farrell isn't addressing his weight, the media is (again).  And as far as Farrell goes, I think communicating directly with Sandoval behind closed doors is one of the things he does well.  Doubt anything boils over as a result of this.

 

[The X Man Cometh]

Well, this could be that clubhouse controversy we've thus far avoided. Team gives fat guy $95M, surprised when he gets even fatter. It's like a headline from The Onion.

Will be interesting to see how there comments are received- Pablo didn't seem to take kindly to such comments from his old team, the one he won three rings with.

 
While Panda is a gluttonous scrub, blaming him for being out at home last night is ridiculous, and I'd hope that wasn't the reason why he wasn't in the game. Brian Butterfield should not have sent him, and it was obvious as the play was unfolding that the relay would beat the runner home. If anything Sandoval made the play closer than it should have been with a good slide into home.

 

[czar]

 
While Panda is a gluttonous scrub, blaming him for being out at home last night is ridiculous, and I'd hope that wasn't the reason why he wasn't in the game. Brian Butterfield should not have sent him, and it was obvious as the play was unfolding that the relay would beat the runner home. If anything Sandoval made the play closer than it should have been with a good slide into home.

 
While I agree that was an awful send by Butterfield, I think questioning how Sandoval was out trying to score from 1st on a ball that rolled between two OF all the way to the wall in RF is somewhat legitimate.
 
I mean, the send was only awful because I was like "how is he not even to third base yet!?" when the camera panned to him.

 

[ivanvamp]

We always hear around here during free agency that "it's only money" when there's a player out there that could help the Sox.  And we expect players to be over paid in free agency; it's just how it tends to work.
 
I didn't love the Panda signing from the outset but I understood it.  They had a humongous hole at 3b.  Panda was a proven player still in his 20s, who just happened to play the position they needed to fill.  It was "only money" and he represented a huge upgrade over last year's dreck at 3b.  
 
To give you some idea of the improvement (offensively, at least), compare Boston's players at 3b last year with Panda this year.
 
2014 3b (total):  .211/.271/.308/.580
2015 Sandoval:  .262/.308/.381/.689
 
That's a huge, huge improvement.  Now, I think we all hoped for even MORE improvement, but they did upgrade offensively at 3b considerably.
 
I think 5 years was way too long and I wish they could have gotten him for a million or two less per year.  But such is free agency.  I am not sold that they could reasonably have acquired Donaldson, who obviously would have been a great fit.  
 
It's classic hindsight to suggest that they could have just plugged Holt into that spot and left him there.  He had a nice 2014 but still managed just a 100 ops+.  He's been better this year of course (111 ops+), but here's what he did down the stretch (August/September) of last year:  
 
33 g (he got hurt), .234/.288/.291/.578
 
So it's not like it was reasonable to look at him and say, yes, that's our future permanent third baseman.  He's best at being a jack-of-all-trades, and the Sox wisely understood that.  That's where his real value comes from.  And it's real value.  Not as an everyday third baseman.
 
So there weren't really that many good options, so far as I can see.  The contract for Panda was, again, in my opinion, too long and for a smidge too much, but that's life at the free agency table.

 

[P'tucket rhymes with...]

 
 
So there weren't really that many good options, so far as I can see.  The contract for Panda was, again, in my opinion, too long and for a smidge too much, but that's life at the free agency table.

YMMV on the Panda acquisition, and that's just fine!  But can we please, please, please stop with the posts justifying the signing on the basis that WMB, Sandoval and Holt were the only three possibilities in the entire baseball universe last off season?
 
And that's not revisionist.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

YMMV on the Panda acquisition, and that's just fine!  But can we please, please, please stop with the posts justifying the signing on the basis that WMB, Sandoval and Holt were the only three possibilities in the entire baseball universe last off season?
 
And that's not revisionist.

 
Well, Holt was never really an option. Abs took a look at that this morning, actually.
 
http://sonsofsamhorn.com/baseball/teams/al-east/boston-red-sox/brock-holt-to-third-base-you-say/

 

[ivanvamp]

YMMV on the Panda acquisition, and that's just fine!  But can we please, please, please stop with the posts justifying the signing on the basis that WMB, Sandoval and Holt were the only three possibilities in the entire baseball universe last off season?
 
And that's not revisionist.

 
I didn't say these guys were the only options.  Just that I didn't see many good ones.  Donaldson certainly would have been a better option, but I don't think I would have wanted to pay the price to acquire him via trade.

 

[benhogan]

YMMV on the Panda acquisition, and that's just fine!  But can we please, please, please stop with the posts justifying the signing on the basis that WMB, Sandoval and Holt were the only three possibilities in the entire baseball universe last off season?
 
And that's not revisionist.

Agreed.
 
Everyone that wants to point the finger of 'revision' or 'hindsight' can go back and read "The future at 3rd" thread from last fall:
 
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/85787-the-future-at-3rd/
 
The vast majority of SoSH (credit to the people around here) were against signing Panda and there were at least a dozen other options/suggestions (plus our Front Office is privy to many more opportunities) to spending $95MM and a supplemental pick on Pablo Sandoval.
 
Frankly the narrative that Pablo was the 'only' or 'best' option is false and revisionist.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

 
While Panda is a gluttonous scrub, blaming him for being out at home last night is ridiculous, and I'd hope that wasn't the reason why he wasn't in the game. Brian Butterfield should not have sent him, and it was obvious as the play was unfolding that the relay would beat the runner home. If anything Sandoval made the play closer than it should have been with a good slide into home.

The weirdest part of the play was that Sandoval paused between first and second to watch the ball, as if he thought it might be caught in the air. But it was nowhere near being caught. That was a baserunning blunder by Sandoval, and if he didn't hold up, even he would have scored fairly easily on that hit.
 
But once he did hold up, considering the situation, Butterfield absolutely 100% has to hold him at third. He has to understand the situation there. That was one of the worst sends I've ever seen because of the situation. 
 
A dumb baserunning blunder and a horrible coaching decision on the same play to turn a sure run into an out-- that is so 2014-2015 Red Sox.

 

[soxhop411]

“@pgammo: red sox - Pablo Sandoval continues to find multiple ways to disappoint - WEEI | John Tomase And now he’s hired a nutritionist/chef”

So he has apparently rehired a nutritionist/chef (according to Gammons) since I did not see it in Tomase's article.

 

[Plympton91]

That link would be better suited for the "ESPN Is Pathetic" thread. At no point in the article is Farrell quoted as saying Panda's weight is a problem. Here's the actual quote from the article.
 
 
 
 
They reversed the order of the sentences to make it sound more like he was agreeing that Panda is out of shape. And of course the cut out the most important sentence in the quote where Farrell specifically says he can't say that Panda coming out of the game was directly related to his conditioning. This is the kind of click bait you see on Buzzfeed.

 
That was a very diplomatic answer by Farrell, the kind he's paid to give and the kind Bobby V was incapable of, but c'mon man.  "Can't say if it is related to conditioning" is not the response of a manager who really wants to let his player off the hook.  I'd say it was a perfectly veiled message, hopefully one that was reinforced and more strongly worded in private.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

 
That was a very diplomatic answer by Farrell, the kind he's paid to give and the kind Bobby V was incapable of, but c'mon man.  "Can't say if it is related to conditioning" is not the response of a manager who really wants to let his player off the hook.  I'd say it was a perfectly veiled message, hopefully one that was reinforced and more strongly worded in private.

 
If you want to dig into what's going on behind closed doors, be my guest. ESPN reported that Farrell admitted his weight was an issue. He did not. ESPN suck, which is no surprise, and I stand by my point that that link belonged in the ESPN sucks thread. It was click-bait that "the worldwide leader' should be above. They could have written that story without a title that misleads readers.

 

[moondog80]

“@pgammo: red sox - Pablo Sandoval continues to find multiple ways to disappoint - WEEI | John Tomase And now he’s hired a nutritionist/chef”

So he has apparently rehired a nutritionist/chef (according to Gammons) since I did not see it in Tomase's article.

This makes it sound like hiring a nutritionist is a disappointment. Gammons?

 

[tomdeplonty]

Maybe the disappointment is that he's only doing it now.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Maybe the disappointment is that he's only doing it now.

Pretty sure he did it with the Giants, at least for one period, maybe more. Over one of the offseasons, he also hired a personal trainer, and they showed him running up hills and stuff. He got in great shape, for him, but like often happens with people with chronic weight gain problems, he put it all back on and more. Pablo in much, much better shape, below. I think this was in the spring after the Giants first WS win (2010). That postseason he mostly rode the pine because he'd gotten so fat. Thing is, he was making a pittance then. Pretty embarrassing for the Sox to bench a $95 million guy.
 
 

 
Bottom for line for me though, if this bleeping clown doesn't know by now how/why he gets fat(ter), he's dumber than I thought. And, he better not be sending the bill for the nutritionist to the Red Sox. 
 
Someone asked in one of the threads if Sandoval has put weight on during this season. One of the first things Schilling said during the Sunday night game with the Tigers a week and a half ago was that he'd put on a considerable amount of weight (paraphrasing). And, to my experienced eye from watching this guy since he came up, I agree with Curt. 

 

[nattysez]

 

Pete Abraham ‏@PeteAbe  30m30 minutes ago
Sandoval parried questions about his condition, saying he weighs the same he did last season and nobody has asked him to change that.

 
 
 

Gordon Edes ‏@GordonEdes  6m6 minutes ago
Oh and Pablo Sandoval says he weighs the same and there's no issue there, folks

 
 
I'd predict that this is going to get ugly, but I get the sense that much of the fan base is already beyond caring about the 2015 team.  Not sure what'll happen if Panda rolls into camp (no pun intended) looking huge again next spring, though.

 

[soxhop411]

“@brianmacp: Farrell acknowledged that the Red Sox have tried to get Sandoval not to play so shallow, but Sandoval has a ”comfort level“ playing in.”

 

[Plympton91]

So, he's basically flushing down the toilet any possible advantage the Red Sox can get from their quants analyzing optimal positioning of the infielders.  Seems like that should have been a question during the "interview" for a $95 million contract, and if the answer was, "Yeah, but I have a comfort level playing in," it should have been another reason to pass.

 

[Clears Cleaver]

would anyone beside John Henry care if this guy was DFA? I have no interest in watching him play ever again. Of course, the same can be said about Porcello, Kelly, Miley, Craig, Castillo, Breslow, Wright, Masterson, Napoli...

 

[boring girls]

Dave Cameron on fangraphs did a write up speculating about Sandoval being a waiver trade with the Padres
 

 
 
After all, reports from last winter suggest that Sandoval actually turned down a larger offer from the Padres to sign with the Red Sox. The Padres liked him enough to make him a $100 million offer, and they haven’t found a new long-term answer at 3B in the meantime....

The easy way to offset most of Sandoval’s salary is to include James Shields in the trade. The Red Sox rotation continues to be a source of consternation, and it’s widely expected that the team will look to outside acquisitions to bolster their starting staff this winter. While Shields results this year haven’t been what the Padres were hoping for when they signed him, his BB/K/GB rates all remain solid, offering some hope for a bounce-back of his own. And because the Padres backloaded his contract, he has $65 million remaining on his deal over the next three years, putting his contract somewhat in line with Sandoval’s deal going forward.

For instance, Jackie Bradley Jr would give the Padres a legitimate Major League center fielder, something that they just haven’t had this year; with both Justin Upton and Will Venable leaving as free agents, most likely, the team almost certainly will slide Wil Myers back to a corner spot where he belongs, opening up center field for a better defender.

Bradley himself doesn’t offset the value difference between Sandoval and Shields, but if Boston also included Deven Marrero — a similar kind of prospect, a glove-first SS who probably won’t hit but is probably better than anything San Diego has in the pipeline — you might start to get A.J. Preller to start thinking about the swap. Turning one pitcher into three position players who could potentially step right into the Padres line-up is the kind of deal they’ll need to make if they want to try and win next year. At the least, Bradley and Marrero would close the value gap enough to make the cash side of the equation pretty minimal; maybe the Red Sox kick in an extra $5 million or something, but it’s in the range of reasonable for both sides at that point.

 
 
TL;DR - Panda + JBJ + Marrero for Shields speculation.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

“@brianmacp: Farrell acknowledged that the Red Sox have tried to get Sandoval not to play so shallow, but Sandoval has a ”comfort level“ playing in.”

 
Translation from managerese: "he's told us to stick our positioning suggestions where the sun don't shine."
 
The Giants are looking smarter by the day for letting him walk. National Geographic says the maximum weight of an albatross is about 22 lbs., but I think that information may be out of date.

 

[glennhoffmania]

 
Translation from managerese: "he's told us to stick our positioning suggestions where the sun don't shine."
 
The Giants are looking smarter by the day for letting him walk. National Geographic says the maximum weight of an albatross is about 22 lbs., but I think that information may be out of date.

 
Let's try to stick to the facts, at least as best we can based on available information.  Did the Giants let him walk or did he turn down a similar offer from them because he wanted out?  From what I read at the time the Giants made a pretty competitive offer and wanted him to stay.

 

[nvalvo]

Dave Cameron on fangraphs did a write up speculating about Sandoval being a waiver trade with the Padres
 
 
 
TL;DR - Panda + JBJ + Marrero for Shields speculation.

 
That'd be a terrible deal for us. 
 
What is it about James Shields 1.4 HR/9 playing in the spacious parks of the NL West that makes people think he could be effective pitching in Fenway, Camden Yards and the Rogers Centre? That, along with his ballooning walk rate, screams impending elbow surgery.
 
It'd be like the Porcello deal, if Porcello were six years older. The Sandoval contract is bad, but I prefer it to the Shields contract. 

 

[Al Zarilla]

 
Translation from managerese: "he's told us to stick our positioning suggestions where the sun don't shine."
 
The Giants are looking smarter by the day for letting him walk. National Geographic says the maximum weight of an albatross is about 22 lbs., but I think that information may be out of date.

Some people say the Sox had nobody in the system to put at third after Middlebrooks failed. Well, look at the Giants. They brought in Casey McGehee to replace Sandoval at one fourth Sandoval's salary, one year. He was playing poorly, or was hurt, or both this year, so they kind of in desperation started playing Matt Duffy at third, who'd played five (5) games there between the minors and the majors. He was almost sent down to Fresno before opening day! He's turned out to be a plus player hitting, fielding and baserunning. 3.1 fWAR in 92 games. He looks to me like he's been playing third all his life. Did the Giants just get lucky? Maybe, but they didn't panic about third base (Panik probably could have played there but he's very good at 2B  ) and try to trade for someone else when McGehee was failing. Some Giants fans wanted to put Buster Posey at third. Whatever, Sox management just blew it signing Panda. 

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

 
Let's try to stick to the facts, at least as best we can based on available information.  Did the Giants let him walk or did he turn down a similar offer from them because he wanted out?  From what I read at the time the Giants made a pretty competitive offer and wanted him to stay.

 
There were plenty of reports that the Red Sox were not the highest bidder for Sandoval, that both the Padres and Giants made competitive offers, and in the end, it was Sandoval choosing the Red Sox rather than any team bowing out of the negotiations.  Comments after the fact seem to indicate Sandoval wanted out of San Francisco more so than they wanted him gone.  In particular, Sandoval bristled at how the Giants harped on his weight during his time there and he wasn't pleased with how they handled extension negotiations prior to the 2014 season (shades of the "Red Sox insulted Lester with a lowball offer" BS).
 
So yeah, implying that the Giants chose to walk away rather than simply lost the bidding war is not exactly accurate.

 

[nvalvo]

 
In particular, Sandoval bristled at how the Giants harped on his weight during his time there and he wasn't pleased with how they handled extension negotiations prior to the 2014 season (shades of the "Red Sox insulted Lester with a lowball offer" BS).
 

 
I think they offered him 3/$40, which is actually kind of a lot like 4/$75 or whatever the initial offer to Lester was, in that it's about half the years and dollars the market actually shook out to be. 

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Dave Cameron on fangraphs did a write up speculating about Sandoval being a waiver trade with the Padres
 
 
 
TL;DR - Panda + JBJ + Marrero for Shields speculation.

 
So - this is the summary?
 
Give up Sandoval ($8M 2015 + $76M through 2019) , Bradley and Marrero
 
for
 
Shields ($3M 2015 + $65M through 2018)
 
Save ~$16M to get 3 years of "Big Game", have no one to play 3B, and give up the best defensive CF in the league (cost controlled) in order to get out from under one presumably bad contract to take on another. Some people must really hate Sandoval.
 
Sound right?

 

[NDame616]

would anyone beside John Henry care if this guy was DFA? I have no interest in watching him play ever again. Of course, the same can be said about Porcello, Kelly, Miley, Craig, Castillo, Breslow, Wright, Masterson, Napoli...

Why in the world are you grouping Wade Miley, who is making $3.6M and been our most consistent starting pitcher, with guys making 10M, or playing I'm AAA?

There are a lot of problems on this team and a lot of overpaid players. Wade Miley is neither

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

Jesus, can we get some facts in here?  
 
The Giants' final offer for Sandoval, vice president and assistant GM Bobby Evans revealed on Yahoo SportsTalk Live on Monday, was a five-year, $95 million contract that included a club option for a sixth year and a willingness to go up.
 
http://www.csnbayarea.com/giants/evans-giants-offered-sandoval-sixth-year

 

[MikeM]

The problem i see with people reaching for the Shields/Panda stuff is that it essentially ignores the probability that the Padres interest in Sandavol likely amounted to an "in the moment" variety to begin with. The short lived window of big spending and desire to make a splash seems to have passed, and now they are back to being...well the Padres. With Panda's contract looking a lot worse then Shields' atm/imo, I can't really see those Padres going the bad contract swap route there. Even with prospects thrown in.
 
If anything they'll eat some of the money and take whatever financial lose comes with that, without hanging another bad contract over their heads. Which unlike Panda atm, probably won't require picking up a lion's share of that contract either. I mean sure Shields has been disappointing thus far, but it's not like he's been Porcello bad or anything. Plus starting pitching is an always in demand commodity. 
 
 

 

[Drek717]

 
So - this is the summary?
 
Give up Sandoval ($8M 2015 + $76M through 2019) , Bradley and Marrero
 
for
 
Shields ($3M 2015 + $65M through 2018)
 
Save ~$16M to get 3 years of "Big Game", have no one to play 3B, and give up the best defensive CF in the league (cost controlled) in order to get out from under one presumably bad contract to take on another. Some people must really hate Sandoval.
 
Sound right?

Pretty much.  And if they do that deal they'll still have no real answer for 3B.
 
Sandoval is starting the mea culpas now.  Give him an off-season of pulling his head out of his ass and we'll probably see a comparatively lithe Panda next season.  Many players have struggled in their first season shifting leagues and it isn't like Sandoval hasn't had his share of bad luck with foul balls ricocheting off his limbs and all that.  He's still hovering around a .700 OPS which is a huge step up for 3B over the last 3.5 years (other than a brief WMB tease), as sad as that is to say.

 

[Madmartigan]

I would gladly swap Panda for Shields straight up. Shields' FIP (4.07) is respectable, and even if he sucks we only have to see him once every five days. Once you start throwing in prospects and cash the deal looks a lot less palatable though; I'm still holding out hope that JBJ can become a close to average major league hitter, and thus an incredibly valuable player overall.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Big thing missing in all the Panda for Shields wishcasting...Shields has an opt-out after 2016 (in lieu of a no-trade clause).  He reportedly was seeking to sign on the west coast to be closer to home, which is part of why he was a late sign and barely on the radar for the Sox and others.  If he's traded to the Red Sox, I would expect it's all but guaranteed he'd opt out of his deal.  So while from a financial standpoint, that might be a plus (particularly compared to the Sandoval commitment), it isn't one that the Red Sox should be handing over long range cost-controlled prospects/players like JBJ or Marrero for.  Straight up Shields for Panda is one thing, throwing in additional value for the privilege of having James Shields for at most a year and change...not a good move.

 

[EvilEmpire]

Jesus, can we get some facts in here?

The Giants' final offer for Sandoval, vice president and assistant GM Bobby Evans revealed on Yahoo SportsTalk Live on Monday, was a five-year, $95 million contract that included a club option for a sixth year and a willingness to go up.

http://www.csnbayarea.com/giants/evans-giants-offered-sandoval-sixth-year

With what kind of weight clause? I'm sure the Giants would have been happy to keep a fan favorite on the team at market rate as long as they could ensure he wouldn't eat himself off of third base. I'd think that would be important to the Padres too.


edit: added the quote I was referring to

 

[curly2]

Sandoval is starting the mea culpas now.  Give him an off-season of pulling his head out of his ass and we'll probably see a comparatively lithe Panda next season.

 
Not saying I want the Sox to do this deal with the Padres, but I don't expect this to happen at all.
 
And what mea culpas has Sandoval been saying?

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Let's try to stick to the facts, at least as best we can based on available information.  Did the Giants let him walk or did he turn down a similar offer from them because he wanted out?  From what I read at the time the Giants made a pretty competitive offer and wanted him to stay.

 
OK, fine, then the Giants are looking luckier by the day that he didn't take their offer. Does that work?

 

[jscola85]

 
That'd be a terrible deal for us. 
 
What is it about James Shields 1.4 HR/9 playing in the spacious parks of the NL West that makes people think he could be effective pitching in Fenway, Camden Yards and the Rogers Centre? That, along with his ballooning walk rate, screams impending elbow surgery.
 
It'd be like the Porcello deal, if Porcello were six years older. The Sandoval contract is bad, but I prefer it to the Shields contract. 

 
Uhh, what?  Shields' HR/FB rate is 17% this year - his career rate is 11.5%.  I suspect that a big chunk of his HR rate is just dumb luck this year.  In fact, his xFIP is the lowest it has been since 2012, so the peripherals outside HR rate say he's pitching as well as ever.
 
As for JBJ and Marrero, neither has a clear path to a role with this franchise.  There's an OF logjam and Bradley has never shown an ability to hit at the MLB level.  Perhaps he is a late bloomer like Cameron Maybin, but for now he's expendable.  Marrero is even moreso - completely blocked by Bogaerts and Pedroia, and not hitting particularly well.  Both are 24-25, with little left to show in the minors but no future in the majors.
 
I'd sign up to this deal in a heartbeat.  Even if both Shields and Sandoval flop, at least Shields' deal is one year closer to being over with.  For 2016, the team can go with a combo of Holt and someone cheap like Uribe or Sean Rodriguez, perhaps move Hanley back to 3rd, use their remaining payroll flexibility on David Freese, or sign Howie Kendrick and shift him there.  Or swing a trade - there are almost 20 3rd basemen on pace for 2+ WAR seasons; it's not like finding a productive 3B is some mystical unicorn.  Mike Moustakas is about to get very expensive for the Royals, so perhaps they would be open to trade him to reload their farm system; same for Trevor Plouffe and the Twins.  I am fairly confident the Sox could get Martin Prado for nothing but absorbing his contract.

 

[glennhoffmania]

 
OK, fine, then the Giants are looking luckier by the day that he didn't take their offer. Does that work?

 
Yeah but that's a pretty meaningful distinction.  It's not like the other teams ran away from Pablo and the Sox bid against themselves.  At least three teams really wanted him. 
 
But I think it's too soon to call him a complete bust.  Players have tough transition years sometimes.  We can come up with reasons why it makes no sense, but a guy who changes teams, moves 3000 miles away, goes up against different pitchers, etc. can struggle in his first year.  I'd like to see how he does next year before trying to dump him (along with a couple of prospects) for Shields.