I was going to say "Has anyone checked with Scott Foster's bookie to see who's going to win tonight?" except that with Tony Brothers also working the game he's probably bet the house on Miami.Nailed it!
I was going to say "Has anyone checked with Scott Foster's bookie to see who's going to win tonight?" except that with Tony Brothers also working the game he's probably bet the house on Miami.Nailed it!
The negativity in this town stinks. The series is not over, teams come back from 3-1 about 5% of the time but that includes lots of series where the talent differential is much greater than this series.Well, it was a nice season for a while, but this is a soft team that lacks mental toughness and focus. Hopefully it is just an age thing. But the Celtics ought to be embarassed about the alleged effort they turned in tonight.
I don't think the Heat are the more talented team, but they are clearly and beyond any doubt the better team.
Well, it was a nice season for a while, but this is a soft team that lacks mental toughness and focus.
I don’t know about soft but lack of focus seems to be spot on. Miami is good at forcing turnovers, yes, but so many of their turnovers were just brain dead plays. Dumb travels, Kemba tipping a board into the Miami fast break instead of just grabbing it, Smart carelessly dribbling in a crowd or throwing it at a guy’s feet. 19 turnovers is absolutely inexcusable no matter how good the other team’s defense is, and that was the game tonight.Well, it was a nice season for a while, but this is a soft team that lacks mental toughness and focus. Hopefully it is just an age thing. But the Celtics ought to be embarassed about the alleged effort they turned in tonight.
I don't think the Heat are the more talented team, but they are clearly and beyond any doubt the better team.
Yeah, if they somehow tie the series, no one will be saying they lacked mental toughness. Teams do come back occasionally, and I'm sure people were saying similar negative things about those teams when down 1-3.The negativity in this town stinks. The series is not over, teams come back from 3-1 about 5% of the time but that includes lots of series where the talent differential is much greater than this series.
This take seems about right. I give the Heat as much credit as anyone, but I know what a playoff effort looks like, and Game 4 from the Celtics was most certainly not that, particularly on offense. No fatigue excuses either.Well, it was a nice season for a while, but this is a soft team that lacks mental toughness and focus. Hopefully it is just an age thing. But the Celtics ought to be embarassed about the alleged effort they turned in tonight.
I don't think the Heat are the more talented team, but they are clearly and beyond any doubt the better team.
I know this is a reactionary post but both teams were flat in the 1H......I expected it from the Celtics coming off their “must win” but the Heat played below their standard in a game they should have been sky high for coming off a loss. If Herro only has a good game instead of an all-time historical playoff performance the Celtics win comfortably.Well, it was a nice season for a while, but this is a soft team that lacks mental toughness and focus. Hopefully it is just an age thing. But the Celtics ought to be embarassed about the alleged effort they turned in tonight.
I don't think the Heat are the more talented team, but they are clearly and beyond any doubt the better team.
It was like a game after a travel day, and maybe time off in the bubble is worse, both teams were off. I would go as far as Herro having a great game, Cs have a lead in the 4th.I know this is a reactionary post but both teams were flat in the 1H......I expected it from the Celtics coming off their “must win” but the Heat played below their standard in a game they should have been sky high for coming off a loss. If Herro only has a good game instead of an all-time historical playoff performance the Celtics win comfortably.
I expect the Celtics to come out in G5 as they did in G3 and get a W. I’ve felt and stated all along that Miami is the better team but this is not a 5-game series type of matchup.
They are maddening but Miami is baiting them into bad passes and they know Boston's tendencies. The Celtics are elite at this stuff (eg deflections) as well statistically - but the Heat are just better. They are, for my money, the most well coached team in the league not named the Spurs. To be fair, their institutional knowledge is incredible from Riley on down to the Heat veterans but the level of buy-in is also remarkable.Yeah, the turnovers are maddening, especially since so many of them are of the “What were you thinking / who were you passing to?” type.
Second this. My rating of Spoelstra and the organization as a whole has gone way up in this series, and I was already high on them to begin with.They are maddening but Miami is baiting them into bad passes and they know Boston's tendencies. The Celtics are elite at this stuff (eg deflections) as well statistically - but the Heat are just better. They are, for my money, the most well coached team in the league not named the Spurs. To be fair, their institutional knowledge is incredible from Riley on down to the Heat veterans but the level of buy-in is also remarkable.
This, to me, is the problem.They were bad, really bad for stretches of this game yet somehow were right there at the end.
If they had a Jimmy Butler-type attitude, this would have been Celtics in 5.This, to me, is the problem.
Tatum and Brown, and to a lesser extent, Smart, are not (yet?) reliable dribblers in serious traffic/pressure. It's a thin margin. Tatum and Brown's 10 turnovers might have come on 8000 drives. But TOs are one of those things where the raw number matters as much as the %%. The rebound numbers were pretty close, so the TOs probably are the biggest driver of that FGA difference.Tatum with 6 turnovers last night and Smart and Brown with 4 each. The turnovers combined with Miami getting 9 more FGA were key differences in the game. Miami shooting just 27% from three kept the game closer than it probably should have been. Man, Tyler Herro was amazing last night. The Miami bench outscored the Celtics 40-22 largely due to Herro’s 37. Hard to believe he will go off like that again. I think the Celtics can and will win the next game but I have a less rosy outlook that they can win the next three in a row. Last night’s turnover fest (largely driven by Miami’s strong defense) was disappointing and probably killed their chance to win the series.
Man, I totally forgot that as well. I’m just glad we’ve moved on from why didn’t we draft Giannis to Herro Derangement Syndrome. I‘m going to need many more sessions to get over this.Had totally forgotten the 12/13/14 were decided by a drawing since Charlotte/Miami/Sacto all ended up tied.
So that’s fun to think about, especially with how much of a fluke season that was for the Kings.
Yeah I do like Romeo, probably more than most. Needs polish, obviously, and it really sucks that he’s getting surgery leading into what you would’ve hoped to be a critical offseason period.Man, I totally forgot that as well. I’m just glad we’ve moved on from why didn’t we draft Giannis to Herro Derangement Syndrome. I‘m going to need many more sessions to get over this.
Just have to hope that Langford gets healthy for once and turns into a solid contributor. He seemed to be making strides there before COVID.
Sadly, this one hurts much more than not drafting Giannis.Man, I totally forgot that as well. I’m just glad we’ve moved on from why didn’t we draft Giannis to Herro Derangement Syndrome. I‘m going to need many more sessions to get over this.
Just have to hope that Langford gets healthy for once and turns into a solid contributor. He seemed to be making strides there before COVID.
I’m in complete agreement with your first paragraph.The one criticism I'd have of CBS is that the offensive struggles in the last 5 minutes are pretty consistent this series and the last. They are a bit stuck between Kemba as the primary and Tatum as the primary and they are hesitant each big trip offensively about what their attack plan is. The only guy who is always thinking "attack" is Smart, and while I love it and they do need that he is not their best option in those situations.
I don't know what the answer is. Probably, setting the default assumption that Tatum starts the offense in 'close and late' and then having a couple set plays for Kemba is the way to go, but they really seem stuck in between to me and that makes them tentative at the precisetime you cannot be. Interestingly, once they get behind late that tentativeness disappears and they look looser and more aggressive. Is that coaching? Mindset of the couple key guys? Likely some ofboth.
I feel like this is the (rare) time where a star-level former player is helpful. Don't you think that what, say, Paul Pierce would tell them is "believe in yourself and make a play, don't wait" or something like that? While I don't doubt CBS and the staff overall I do wonder if they have quite the right mindset in place for the specific situation which is very new for Kemba and still I think new to Tatum as well
My biggest "woof" turnovers were the terrible passes: Theis and Tatum.Cs did lots of things pretty well last night. Shot better, assisted better, rebounded better (which seems impossible), etc.
But a -11 turnover differential is hard to overcome.
That Tatum travel late - woof.
But Marcus going 1-8 from 3 hurt a lot, too. Open looks, as were Tatum's in the first half.
Time Lord looked good on the PnR. +10 for the game vs Theis at -14. Maybe there's something there?
Ainge did have 2 other picks in the first round. He likely had the ammo to move up unless nobody in that 9-13 range wanted an extra pick to move down a few spots. I like Romeo and Grant but I would trade both of them for Herro in a heartbeat. He is just so smooth. I also think tons of teams who picked before Miami will be lamenting the same thing. He is going to be a difference maker for a long time.Sadly, this one hurts much more than not drafting Giannis.
As SteveF noted above, there’s been pretty consistent reporting that Herro was the guy that Ainge really wanted (Bill Simmons has alluded to this a few times on his podcast FWIW). And the reason they missed out on him was all due to a fucking coin flip....it’s going to hurt for a long time. Hopefully Romeo develops into at least a rotation piece to lessen the sting
I think Hayward should be the primary ball handler close-and-late. If Kemba gets a good matchup/space on a rotation he should do his thing, but Hayward should start out and assess the defense. I think he's the best decision-maker. Kemba and Tatum both seem to lock in on iso in that situation and while they are each 'good' they are not yet 'great' in iso (or, not anymore in Walker's case) and defenses shade to them knowing the tendencies. Maybe that's unfair---Kemba made a great pass in the Anunoby game.I’m in complete agreement with your first paragraph.
Tatum’s ISOs at end of games are weirdly ineffective. He kind of dribbles aimlessly for a few seconds, never really looking to get anywhere, then inevitably ends the possession with a side step jumper that’s contested.
Smart and Brown seem to be the only ones thinking “attack”, which is a problem in and of itself. Smart because of his propensity for hero ball and taking absolutely awful situational shots. Brown because, despite his much improved handle, he tends to get tunnel vision and drives straight into people without a back-up plan. Multiple times this series he’s been stripped or committed a turnover doing this.
I think the best option is for Walker to have the ball or, odd as it is to say, Hayward. They both seem to have the best mix of attacking while also looking to get the ball to an open teammate if needed
Kawhi does it like every other play and isn’t that subtle about it. Tatum just needs to get a couple Finals MVPs under his belt.Unlike savvier players, he's not terribly subtle about it.
Yup. They’re just not landing those knockout punches.
Yeah but he didn't do that in the three games they lost. The sample data is pretty damning. He, Tatum and Brown are not clutch and there is no getting around it. Brian Robb is just trying to get clicks but this is terrible even for him.Marcus Smart hit 8(?) straight FT's down the stretch in game 3.
Samples are always small in a playoff series. He's just providing data to confirm what we're all seeing. They just aren't getting it done close and late in this series. He did include the season-long data which said that they were an average to above average team close and late. They were 8th all season in offensive rating close and late and 13th in defensive rating. However, Miami is an elite team when it comes to finishing games out.Yeah but he didn't do that in the three games they lost. The sample data is pretty damning. He, Tatum and Brown are not clutch and there is no getting around it. Brian Robb is just trying to get clicks but this is terrible even for him.
We should just cut to the takes that state that "Miami just wants this more than Boston".
The area where they actually really do miss Al Horford has reared its head. His decision-making as the ball-handling/passing big from the semi-circle area and in pick and pop situations was top notch in this offense. Almost always made the right pass or shot decision and had the size to see over the D and finish the play without getting stripped half the time.I think Hayward should be the primary ball handler close-and-late. If Kemba gets a good matchup/space on a rotation he should do his thing, but Hayward should start out and assess the defense. I think he's the best decision-maker. Kemba and Tatum both seem to lock in on iso in that situation and while they are each 'good' they are not yet 'great' in iso (or, not anymore in Walker's case) and defenses shade to them knowing the tendencies. Maybe that's unfair---Kemba made a great pass in the Anunoby game.
I keep thinking Brown should be better as a shot creator, mostly because when he chooses to do it he's pretty good at getting his shot. But some of that is he's pretty efficient about taking it when he has a good matchup and being a spot-up shooter when he doesn't. And, really, he's clearly not their best option to create his own shot anyway.
I am not super optimistic they pull this off, but I am interested to see what they do in game 5---do they have the fire of game 3, and do we see evidence they are growing into what they can be?
Kemba sometimes does lock in but it doesn’t seem nearly as egregious as Tatum. Maybe it’s because Kemba actually does attack a decent portion of the time which can cause defensive rotations and easy open looks whereas Tatum always seems to launch a long jumper.I think Hayward should be the primary ball handler close-and-late. If Kemba gets a good matchup/space on a rotation he should do his thing, but Hayward should start out and assess the defense. I think he's the best decision-maker. Kemba and Tatum both seem to lock in on iso in that situation and while they are each 'good' they are not yet 'great' in iso (or, not anymore in Walker's case) and defenses shade to them knowing the tendencies. Maybe that's unfair---Kemba made a great pass in the Anunoby game.
I keep thinking Brown should be better as a shot creator, mostly because when he chooses to do it he's pretty good at getting his shot. But some of that is he's pretty efficient about taking it when he has a good matchup and being a spot-up shooter when he doesn't. And, really, he's clearly not their best option to create his own shot anyway.
I am not super optimistic they pull this off, but I am interested to see what they do in game 5---do they have the fire of game 3, and do we see evidence they are growing into what they can be?
Four games of a specific five minute segment of the game, subject to the score being within five points seems like you can get some really random results. I mean the aggregate shooting he is citing is 3-17. I am pretty sure that you can find lots of star players that have streaks similar to that in a playoff series.Samples are always small in a playoff series. He's just providing data to confirm what we're all seeing. They just aren't getting it done close and late in this series. He did include the season-long data which said that they were an average to above average team close and late. They were 8th all season in offensive rating close and late and 13th in defensive rating. However, Miami is an elite team when it comes to finishing games out.
Comparing this series to the regular season stats in "clutch" situations
ORtg: 112.7(87.9)
DRtg: 108.3(144.4!!!)
Net: +4.4(-56.6!!!)
Nobody is saying they aren't "tough enough for the bright lights". It doesn't matter if the results are random or small or whatever you want them to be. In the most important part of the game when it's been in the balance, Miami has been better by a wide margin. It's just a fact which is supported by the numbers.Four games of a specific five minute segment of the game, subject to the score being within five points seems like you can get some really random results. I mean the aggregate shooting he is citing is 3-17. I am pretty sure that you can find lots of star players that have streaks similar to that in a playoff series.
But maybe you and he are right and they aren't tough enough for the bright lights.
Other GMs don’t have wool over their eyes. They’re seeing the same things we are. Only chance you get rid of Kemba is if you take an equally shitty contract back or attach a significant draft asset, which we no longer have.Is it crazy to think that Ainge needs to move on from Kemba while that contract is still tradeable? I’m very worried that Kemba is going to become an albatross. He’s been playing better offensively than his putrid 3 game stretch vs Toronto and early Miami games, but the offense is still nowhere near enough to make up for how easily teams pick on him defensively.
It is? The aggregate score of the series - as has been documented on Twitter and reflected here - is tied at 441. The Heat's largest margin of victory is five points so they have never won by more than two possessions. There is nothing being done by anyone by a wide margin (unless you want to count the one Boston victory by 11 points).Nobody is saying they aren't "tough enough for the bright lights". It doesn't matter if the results are random or small or whatever you want them to be. In the most important part of the game when it's been in the balance, Miami has been better by a wide margin. It's just a fact which is supported by the numbers.