The Newest Vaughn
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
- Start date
Anyone have some specifics about Grissom’s defensive profile? Is the concern range, hands, or arm? I see the details from his very limited time in MLB but it would be helpful to see the big picture.
An interesting point on his hitting is that he hits the ball to all fields very well. In 2023 he actually favored right field over left field.
His spray chart and other info are here.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/vaughn-grissom-687093?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
EDIT: On this page, Yo La Tengo, it lists his defense this way:
Range (OAA) = -8
Arm Strength = 83.6
If you click on "Fielding" a bit lower on the page it gives a lot of data, how accurate I don't know. But all the data on his range looks poor. Below average on lateral movement, range, success percentage, all their measures.
His spray chart and other info are here.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/vaughn-grissom-687093?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
EDIT: On this page, Yo La Tengo, it lists his defense this way:
Range (OAA) = -8
Arm Strength = 83.6
If you click on "Fielding" a bit lower on the page it gives a lot of data, how accurate I don't know. But all the data on his range looks poor. Below average on lateral movement, range, success percentage, all their measures.
He's played 53 innings in LF since he was drafted, all in the Puerto Rican Winter League. Grissom is MUCH more than a throw in here. Sometimes a deal can accomplish 2 things--clearing Sale's money AND bringing in a very useful piece.
You can do a spray chart from Baseball Savant as well, overlaid on Fenway:
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/illustrator/static?guid=369896a3-11a7-4f68-9326-71412aa91611&scale=true
Big news in my neighborhood. Grissom went to high school 2 minutes from my house. It’ll be fun to root for a local kid if he sticks around. Sox have had a lot of Florida guys over the years. A few have contributed to championships. Why not again?
The kid already wins the PR battle and not just because of all the gratitude. Check the hashtag.
I'd love a summary, as I won't click on Xitter. TIA, ITP.
Edit: Never mind, see it's up now! (emily litella)
Sounds like a man who's been reassured he's not getting flipped in another trade.
I'm more than ready for the post-Sale era, and Grissom sounds promising, but watching the organization trade pitching for a middle infielder on the heels of Bloom's hoarding them in the draft is giving me whiplash.
I'm more than ready for the post-Sale era, and Grissom sounds promising, but watching the organization trade pitching for a middle infielder on the heels of Bloom's hoarding them in the draft is giving me whiplash.
I'm sure others here could offer more, but in the games I saw Grissom seemed pretty big and bulky (especially as a 21/22 year old) to stick as a middle infielder. Not unathletic or slow, just not really a smooth shifty MI type.
Looked like a 3B/LF type to me, at least long term. Devers obviously is at 3B for the time being, but maybe he will get some time out in LF. Could potentially be a bat-first utility guy until they decide on his role. Maybe he is the starting 2B this year, but my hunch is that he won't be there long term.
The bat has a chance to be legit good, 0.899 OPS age 21 in A+/AA and 0.921 OPS age 22 in AAA. He stunk in the majors in 2023, but small sample. Definitely at least a chance he is a .850+ guy with OK D in left field. Maybe he will force a similar Yoshida subsidized trade in a year.
Yeah, the legitimate concerns about Grisson's glove need to be taken seriously. If he can't field at 2b, he probably becomes a super-utility, part-timer that won't be impactful. As that seems like a fairly likely option, I don't think people should be as overjoyed as they are. Not saying this is a bad trade, but it's not clear the Sox have solved their 2nd base problem and if they haven't it's unclear that this helps them much.
From the only baseball blog that I support on Patreon (obviously pre-trade and fantasy-focused):
Age23.3 - Grissom is a very bad defensive SS, and it's killing his opportunity for playing time. He put up a negative 5.8 Fangraphs defensive value in only 23 games, which is almost impressive. And his offensive profile really isn't good enough to hold onto in hopes they find time for him in the OF. His 27.1 ft/sec sprint was below average, and he only stole 13 bags in 15 attempts in 102 games at Triple-A. He's not a big power hitter with a low launch and a below average EV (86.2 MPH). The plate skills are plus with a 14.1%/12.0% K%/BB% at Triple-A, which led to a 135 wRC+, and the hit tool looked good in the majors too with a .280 BA, .278 xBA, and 18.8% K%. He's 6'3'', 210 pounds and he had a 88.2 MPH EV at Triple-A, so the power will most certainly be better by his mid 20's. If he had a defensive home, I would still like him as a potentially average to above average across the board type, but without a defensive home, he's nothing but a flier in most leagues. 2024 Projection: 39/8/33/.277/.335/.405/8 Prime Projection: 84/17/68/.286/.358/.427/13
Edit: cut out some fantasy stuff.
Lordy, his BABIPs have been HIGH every year even though the EVs are meh. Weird.
Age23.3 - Grissom is a very bad defensive SS, and it's killing his opportunity for playing time. He put up a negative 5.8 Fangraphs defensive value in only 23 games, which is almost impressive. And his offensive profile really isn't good enough to hold onto in hopes they find time for him in the OF. His 27.1 ft/sec sprint was below average, and he only stole 13 bags in 15 attempts in 102 games at Triple-A. He's not a big power hitter with a low launch and a below average EV (86.2 MPH). The plate skills are plus with a 14.1%/12.0% K%/BB% at Triple-A, which led to a 135 wRC+, and the hit tool looked good in the majors too with a .280 BA, .278 xBA, and 18.8% K%. He's 6'3'', 210 pounds and he had a 88.2 MPH EV at Triple-A, so the power will most certainly be better by his mid 20's. If he had a defensive home, I would still like him as a potentially average to above average across the board type, but without a defensive home, he's nothing but a flier in most leagues. 2024 Projection: 39/8/33/.277/.335/.405/8 Prime Projection: 84/17/68/.286/.358/.427/13
Edit: cut out some fantasy stuff.
Lordy, his BABIPs have been HIGH every year even though the EVs are meh. Weird.
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Would be great if he can stick at 2nd. But I disagree that it's all about his glove.
The Red Sox may hate his glove honestly, but he has a non zero chance of some serious upside with his bat. .900+ OPS kind of guy.
If that happens, he is a long term LF/DH/3B/1B/whatever even if he has no chance as a middle infielder. Still lots of value there.
Not sure. He's not that fast but don't know if there is much data on him as an OF.
I doubt he would be great but I don't think he would Schwarber himself out there either.
If he's close to an average 2B that would be great. But even if he's not, there is some offensive upside here that you just figure out as you go. We'll see.
That seems like a reach. Does he really have enough power to project that high in the Majors? Seems like a guy who might be a solid .750 OPS type (he's a career .746 in 216 ABs), which has value, but much less so if he doesn't have a defensive position that he can play competently. Really seems like a younger, right-handed Valdez. Though, to be clear, I don't want to say they are of equal value as those two years of age difference are important. Hopefully he will improve defensively as he matures (or at least find a spot where he can play passable defense).
If he is able to stick at 2b, in a couple years you could be looking at really good youth up the middle of Teel, Grissom, Mayer, and Anthony. Not to freakin bad. Lot has to happen between now and then but damn.
Chad Jennings suggests the plan is 2B.
View: https://twitter.com/chadjennings22/status/1741181774623801398?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Agree. I think this is a terrific move and certainly willing to see him as our 2B. Maybe I’m overthinking it, but I wonder about the defensive questions, especially if he hasn’t been playing there this winter.
It seems like the sort of trade you make regardless, especially if Breslow is intent on changing the culture, but it wouldn’t be a total surprise to see Grissom flipped again. He’s an asset with value on par with Kyle Teel, according to BTV, higher than Rafaela. And while Grissom’s six years of control is great, we only need a 2B until Mayer or Yorke are ready, possibly as soon as this year.
It would be terrific work to turn Sale (and $17M) into a legitimate trade chip.
I think you are WAY low on the upside of his bat (as Big Papi Mango Salsa spelled out above).
A couple hundred MLB ABs is not the way to peg someone's OPS.
I don't know how he will develop but the bat has legit upside. Certainly plenty that he could be valuable even if he can't stick at 2B.
Amen to his upside as a hitter. You don’t have to be Bernie Malamud to get excited over the character of his first MLB hit.*
*It involved Lansdowne St.
Fielding data on one full season is shaky at best. Fielding data on 23 games is useless. I’m much more interested in the scouting reports on his defense (haven’t really seen one yet). That he played SS almost exclusively in the minors makes me hopeful that Atlanta thought he had potential there, which makes me hopeful that he can be at least average at 2B.
This is a good point. Kelenic has a ton of question marks, and less team control than Grissom. The Braves lineup has some handedness issues with Grissom but it’s not a slam dunk from their end.
The full set of deals since November (with KC, LAA, PIT, SEA, and BOS) from Atlanta’s perspective:
In: Jarred Kelenic (FA 2029), Chris Sale (1/$27.5M), David Fletcher (2/$14M), PTBNL or cash from CHW, PTBNL from PIT, $17 million from BOS, $4.5 million from SEA
Out: Vaughn Grissom, Kyle Wright, Cole Phillips, Tyler Thomas
Agreed. There are questions on the glove and the bat, feels like a guy that gets added to a larger package for a controllable SP.
At some point after this season probably. He doesn’t release a statement like that unless he spoke with Breslow and was told that he’s part of the plan for 2024.
Doesn't it make sense to give Grissom a full season to see if his glove at 2B is passable OR if his bat is so good that it either makes up for bad defense at 2B or warrants a move to another position?
We surveyed a number of scouts and evaluators to get their read on what the Red Sox are getting. Reports were mixed.
SCOUT 1: “I think he got into the habit of being too fast on some routine plays in the infield and is in need of more game-speed experience. I guess I see him as an offense-first shortstop option who would, ultimately, fit better at second base.”
SCOUT 2: “Carries the profile of an offensive second baseman, but his defense can be underwhelming. Still, he should have everyday, run-producing value at Fenway.”
SCOUT 3: “I’m luke-warm on him. He really can’t play shortstop, and I see him being limited to either second base or a corner outfield spot. He has contact skills, but the power is not there. For me, not an impact guy.”
SCOUT 4: “It’s all about upside and patience with him. He has the talent to be a productive major league bat in the No. 2 hole in need of an OBP upgrade, strike zone (recognition) and walks. Has some defensive versatility and could play at second, short and the outfield, but we had some concerns about his ability to play shortstop. He should be able to hit and play second base. Has a good work ethic and can be tough on himself. Brings some instincts and attitude to develop. He’ll need some time (to develop further) at the major league level, sort of like (Triston) Casas did.”
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/12/mlb-scouts-take-on-vaughn-grissom-acquired-in-chris-sale-trade.html
SCOUT 1: “I think he got into the habit of being too fast on some routine plays in the infield and is in need of more game-speed experience. I guess I see him as an offense-first shortstop option who would, ultimately, fit better at second base.”
SCOUT 2: “Carries the profile of an offensive second baseman, but his defense can be underwhelming. Still, he should have everyday, run-producing value at Fenway.”
SCOUT 3: “I’m luke-warm on him. He really can’t play shortstop, and I see him being limited to either second base or a corner outfield spot. He has contact skills, but the power is not there. For me, not an impact guy.”
SCOUT 4: “It’s all about upside and patience with him. He has the talent to be a productive major league bat in the No. 2 hole in need of an OBP upgrade, strike zone (recognition) and walks. Has some defensive versatility and could play at second, short and the outfield, but we had some concerns about his ability to play shortstop. He should be able to hit and play second base. Has a good work ethic and can be tough on himself. Brings some instincts and attitude to develop. He’ll need some time (to develop further) at the major league level, sort of like (Triston) Casas did.”
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/12/mlb-scouts-take-on-vaughn-grissom-acquired-in-chris-sale-trade.html
Well played.
This team is loading up for a longer term run. Whether the short term picture improves, I dunno, but still.
I have no earthly idea as to how coachable this kid is, but if his thank you to the Brave's organization is an accurate indication of his character I'm guessing he'll be willing to work his ass of to improve. It seems like a no brainer to see if you can get Pedroia in there to coach the kid up a bit. I also think that Story might be willing to help out given how well he transitioned to 2nd when he first came to town.
REALLY like his minor league OBP numbers as it gives him top of the order potential if he can carry it to the bigs. Would love to eventually see him in the 2-hole behind Duran. Also like that he's right handed as I felt we were getting too leftie Guess this means it's unlikely C-note moves to second next year as was speculated. That said, though, it's now time to focus on a top of the rotation guy - kinda like, well, Chris Sale when he was young and healthy
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Boston really only needs him to man 2B for a year. In 2024, barring injury, Mayer and Story will be the middle infielders. He probably profiles as a utility guy for the near term.
Usual rosy quotes on an incoming player, I know.
View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1741249183632298461
View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1741250849446273184
View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1741249183632298461
View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1741250849446273184
So if he’s playing awful (as he did for Atlanta), you want to stick with him for the WHOLE year?! No thanks
Thanks for posting that. It seems as though the mixed feelings are all related to him as a shortstop who will likely have to move off the position. Given the Jennings report that the plan is for him play second, I’d say these are actually quite upbeat assessments. They all seem to believe he can really hit.