The OC Search

Justthetippett

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Charlie Weis Jr. He’s built a resume on his own at Ole Miss along with stops at the Falcons, South Florida, FAU, Alabama, etc.
Interesting but he’s only 29. Maybe some kind of QB coach, or offensive assistant. Would not hurt to start restocking the coaching talent pipeline given all the recent departures.
 

Jimbodandy

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This is a solid but not terribly inspiring list. I really hope they cast a wide net. Will unlikely ever happen, but it would be pretty funny if LaFleur came here and was successful. Maybe combine him with an old head like Kubiak or Hackett as advisor for a year or two.
I don't feel qualified even to judge most of these people, especially against each other. But a qualified, experienced OC is a step in the right direction, one that was sorely needed.

The fact is that BB is acknowledging a mistake and remedying it. That's all you can ask of someone at the top - they try something, it fails and they adjust. Our collective sports-viewing histories are littered with tales of woe over games lost and teams run aground because people at the top - especially those with a lot of power/tenure - wouldn't change.

That said, let's see how this all plays out. Given what we know of BB, the list of possible candidates almost has to include far more names than those that Graff cited.
This. It runs against the "Belichick is lazy, tired, stuck in his ways" talking points, but zagging when he should be zagging is a checkmark in the "Pro" column. Change is needed on offense, and the team is not only doing it but telegraphing that they know that they fucked up. This is good.

Thanks for this, appreciative that greatly from a great mind like yours.

And as down as I am on BOB, I'd take him over Matt Patricia.

That said, let's talk about BOB, what I saw from him at Alabama every snap last year. Because I think it conveys personal experience, stats, and also a more macro feel that people can make their own judgments. I saw lots of curl concepts, (if you look at Tide tape and see the Indianapolis Colts horseshoe logo play card sign, that was the cue!) some Y stick, and the occasional Portland Concepts. Way too often stuck on inside draws, and didn't develop the outside zone and boundary run, although this improved as they used Jase McClellan more as the season went along, as opposed to Jahmyr Gibbs (great home run guy, reminds me a bit of Kenneth Walker, but was rather boom/bust metrically). BOB would almost never run inside the 10. Averse to play action. This was an offense stuck when Chip Kelly's spread circa 2011-12 was innovative.

Because I want to talk success rate a ton below here as for my concerns, here's a brief primer to anyone who needs one from FO: Success Rate (college football): Our (FO's) Varsity Numbers column calculates Success Rate for teams, not just running backs, using a set of baselines that differ slightly from our NFL Success Rates: 50% of needed yards on first down, 70% of needed yards on second down, or 100% of needed yards on third or fourth down.

Let's look at the 5 most common Alabama plays by the percentage of overall usage and as a percentage of yards:

Usage; the percentage listed is the percentage of all play calls gained by Alabama in 2022:

1) Inside Zone Read, 129 usages, 14.4%, 47.29% Success Rate.
2) Flood Variations, 67 attempts, 7.48% usage, 47.76% Success Rate
3) Inside Power, 58 attempts, 6.47%, 51.72% Success Rate
4) Outside Zone Read, ran 54 times, 6.03% of all play calls, 48.15% Success Rate
5) Outside Zone (no read), 52 uses, 5.8% usage, 40.38% Success Rate

Yards; the percentage is the percentage of all yards:

1) Inside Zone Read, 10.76% of all yards, 670 yards, 5.19 yards/play
2) Flood Variations, 551 yards, 8.85%, 8.22 yards/play
3) Outside Zone Read, 7.95%, 495 yards, 9.17 yards/play
4) Texas Concepts (HB Option)/Clearouts/Checkdowns 5.84%, 364 yards, 10.11 yards/play
5) Stick, 4.99% of all yards at 311 yards, at 8.64 yards/play

This to me isn't ideal. Like, let's talk about the fact that BOB's trail concepts were ran 27 times last year for Alabama. T-10th (with all screens, combined) most usage, yet had a 59.26 success rate. This and inside power were 1 of only 2 concepts in BOB's most 10 called concepts with a success rate over 50% (not including exactly at 50%).
What a fantastic post. Seems like BoB was stuck in a rut. Theory on why he kept going to the well on that Inside Zone Read with such a rotten success rate?
 

Cellar-Door

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I have always felt
Maybe people in New England still chuckle over the call for a pass from the one instead of a handoff to Beast Mode.
maybe, but he's great with young Qbs... (also.. call was good, execution was bad, they sucked all year rushing in 1 yard to go situations and data generally would argue that the pass actually had a higher expected points outcome).
 

Al Zarilla

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I have always felt

maybe, but he's great with young Qbs... (also.. call was good, execution was bad, they sucked all year rushing in 1 yard to go situations and data generally would argue that the pass actually had a higher expected points outcome).
Yes, I remember all of that. Don't know about bad execution. Malcolm just made a sensational play.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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This to me isn't ideal. Like, let's talk about the fact that BOB's trail concepts were ran 27 times last year for Alabama. T-10th (with all screens, combined) most usage, yet had a 59.26 success rate. This and inside power were 1 of only 2 concepts in BOB's most 10 called concepts with a success rate over 50% (not including exactly at 50%).
Really interesting breakdown. My initial thought is that opposing teams prepare for the concepts that they're most likely to see, so a concept that's rarely used may have a higher chance of success because of the lack of opposition preparation for such concepts. I'd imagine that an increase in usage would see a decrease in success. Would those still be the ideal concepts to run given a decrease in success? I have no idea.
 

Jimbodandy

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Yes, I remember all of that. Don't know about bad execution. Malcolm just made a sensational play.
Learning after the fact how prepared the team was for that particular play (video from practice field weeks earlier)...not sure how anyone could have known that stuff. Perfect circumstance. Sometimes the other guys just beat you.
 

SMU_Sox

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@Brand Name amazing post! In terms of success percent on either play or on average is there an index or something so we could know if 47% is good or bad or something? Should we assume 50% is right? Because I’d imagine for running plays on first down you aren’t likely to see a 50% success rate, you know? Not that your stats are split by downs but just might be useful to have a perspective if I should be happy or sad with those numbers. I know for the NFL average offenses, last time I looked at it for example did not have a 50% success rate: I will take a look though at Sharp’s numbers and RBDSM though for some benchmarks sometime today or tomorrow.
 

snowmanny

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Paul Finebaum did speculate that Saban is waiting for someone to take O’Brien off his hands.

I’ll take anyone (except Jason Garrett) over what we had this year.
 

BaseballJones

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Paul Finebaum did speculate that Saban is waiting for someone to take O’Brien off his hands.
Interesting. I mean, they still averaged 41.2 points a game. In the two games they lost they scored 49 points and 31 points, respectively. I'm not sure I'd pin their "problems" on BOB, if that's kinda sorta what Saban is doing.
 

Cellar-Door

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Alabama fans are just insanely spoiled. BOB was fine, the bigger issue was that they finally didn't have the best talent in the country at every single offensive position, which is inevitable when you lose as much talent as they have to the NFL.
I do think BOB is probably more of an NFL coach, he doesn't call plays like a Kliff where he just assumes all his WRs will get wide open so no need to run any safe stuff.
 

Was (Not Wasdin)

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BB always talks about complimentary football, and that to me is what has been lacking this year. You dont need a touchdown on every drive, but it seemed like every drive they didn’t score on was a three and out, then a shitty punt from inside their thirty (I’ll save my special teams vent for another thread), and the opponent starts with good field position. Very little of the “reversing the field” we used to see, making teams start inside their 20 and limiting their playbook accordingly.

I really hope he’s going to bring in someone who wants to run an offense that compliments what they are doing on defense. Possess the ball for long stretches. Grind out first downs, even on non-scoring drives. Not as many chunk plays, but more consistent yardage. TOP isnt everything, but they were pretty close to the bottom of the league (yes, I know the Bills were last, but that was because of their big play capabilities, we'd trade the Pats O for theirs in a second). Somehow, the Pats were the worst team in the league at home in TOP. Cant win with that, unless you are throwing to Diggs/Gabe Davis/etc.

I'd like more points, of course. But I don't think the Pats right now have the personnel to run a deep strike offense, and I'll trade some of those points I want for more first downs, more plays, more time off the clock.
 

Cellar-Door

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In fairness, I don't think anybody could make Jonnu Smith useful.
Arthur Smith did a real nice job of it.

The funny thing about that offseason... Henry and Jonnu is pretty close (you'd prefer one of them was a better blocker) to exactly what you get if you're implementing a Bill O'Brien offense. He came up with basically all of the Gronk/Hernandez stuff, and 2 TE has been something he liked after that as well.
 

rodderick

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Arthur Smith did a real nice job of it.

The funny thing about that offseason... Henry and Jonnu is pretty close (you'd prefer one of them was a better blocker) to exactly what you get if you're implementing a Bill O'Brien offense. He came up with basically all of the Gronk/Hernandez stuff, and 2 TE has been something he liked after that as well.
Did he? Aside from catching 8 TDs one year, he produced very little in that offense. He was a 35 catch/400 yards guy with the Titans. The Pats overpayed due to projecting him to be more productive than he was, but the dude is just incapable of running traditional routes.
 

SMU_Sox

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Alabama fans are just insanely spoiled. BOB was fine, the bigger issue was that they finally didn't have the best talent in the country at every single offensive position, which is inevitable when you lose as much talent as they have to the NFL.
I do think BOB is probably more of an NFL coach, he doesn't call plays like a Kliff where he just assumes all his WRs will get wide open so no need to run any safe stuff.
I was talking to Jess and another film nerd who is also a coach about Bama and came away thinking the opposite - that they have a top 10 kind of quality QB and had issues with the offense outside of QB. But like she said still an upgrade over Matty P. It’s not that BOB is bad but is he anything other than average? I’m skeptical. But look average is a huge upgrade.

Quick edit: I was asking them questions because as well as I know UGA and SMU I don’t know Bama in great detail like they do.

Oh and that I don’t think it’s a purely talent issue either. Sorry if that isn’t clear
 
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DJnVa

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With McVay staying with LA, I would guess Zac Robinson stays in LA to become his OC.
 

SMU_Sox

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Arthur Smith did a real nice job of it.

The funny thing about that offseason... Henry and Jonnu is pretty close (you'd prefer one of them was a better blocker) to exactly what you get if you're implementing a Bill O'Brien offense. He came up with basically all of the Gronk/Hernandez stuff, and 2 TE has been something he liked after that as well.
2 TE offenses work when one guy is a good in-line blocker and the other a good receiver and in particular a good slot receiver. Neither are a good enough in-line blocker and only one of them is good enough to run slot and TE routes vs be used for schemed touches. These are not the right two tight ends to run 12 with.
 

Cellar-Door

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I would guess the McVay news takes Robinson off the list, he's going to be the defacto Offensive Coordinator there likely, if not the actual coordinator.
 

Mystic Merlin

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I would guess the McVay news takes Robinson off the list, he's going to be the defacto Offensive Coordinator there likely, if not the actual coordinator.
Probably. But he ain’t gonna call plays - that is one bone a team like the Pats can throw him that he isn’t gonna get with the Rams.
 

leftfieldlegacy

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When talking about Alabama offense I thinks it's a good idea to take a few steps back for perspective. Their offense scored 64 touchdowns compared to their opponent's 27. They lost 2 games by a total of 4 points. I couldn't tell you whether BOB will be an effective pro OC or not but I'm not buying that Alabama did not have top flight athletes or that BOB's offense was ineffective.
 

Was (Not Wasdin)

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Arthur Smith did a real nice job of it.

The funny thing about that offseason... Henry and Jonnu is pretty close (you'd prefer one of them was a better blocker) to exactly what you get if you're implementing a Bill O'Brien offense. He came up with basically all of the Gronk/Hernandez stuff, and 2 TE has been something he liked after that as well.
Did he? Aside from catching 8 TDs one year, he produced very little in that offense. He was a 35 catch/400 yards guy with the Titans. The Pats overpayed due to projecting him to be more productive than he was, but the dude is just incapable of running traditional routes.
Smith was the fourth or fifth option on the Titans in 2019 and 2020, his two best years there-Corey Davis, AJ Brown, Derrick Henry, even Tannehill as a runner all drew more attention, which made it easier for him to operate. There is no one on the Pats who draws coverages that create mismatches down the line. He cant get open against the guys covering him.
 

SMU_Sox

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When talking about Alabama offense I thinks it's a good idea to take a few steps back for perspective. Their offense scored 64 touchdowns compared to their opponent's 27. They lost 2 games by a total of 4 points. I couldn't tell you whether BOB will be an effective pro OC or not but I'm not buying that Alabama did not have top flight athletes or that BOB's offense was ineffective.
I think part of it is Alabama going from 2020 and #1 in Football Outsiders efficiency metric, FEI 2.47, to #2 in 2021 when BOB started, 1.70, to #7 this year at 1.37. Sure some of that is OL and WR talent but the offense did see a dip two years in a row.
 

JokersWildJIMED

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I was talking to Jess and another film nerd who is also a coach about Bama and came away thinking the opposite - that they have a top 10 kind of quality QB and had issues with the offense outside of QB. But like she said still an upgrade over Matty P. It’s not that BOB is bad but is he anything other than average? I’m skeptical. But look average is a huge upgrade.

Quick edit: I was asking them questions because as well as I know UGA and SMU I don’t know Bama in great detail like they do.

Oh and that I don’t think it’s a purely talent issue either. Sorry if that isn’t clear
Disagree. The BoB offense would have won the national championship against the vaunted Bulldogs in his first year but for Metchie being out for the Championship game and Jameson Williams tearing his ACL by halftime. They still almost pulled it out with no wideouts. Their offense was in transition this year and had no experienced wideouts and an often limited Bryce (albeit still fantastic). Some Alabama fans criticize BoB because the offense wasn’t as dynamic this year, but it simply does not hold up.
 

Super Nomario

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2 TE offenses work when one guy is a good in-line blocker and the other a good receiver and in particular a good slot receiver. Neither are a good enough in-line blocker and only one of them is good enough to run slot and TE routes vs be used for schemed touches. These are not the right two tight ends to run 12 with.
60053
 

SMU_Sox

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Disagree. The BoB offense would have won the national championship against the vaunted Bulldogs in his first year but for Metchie being out for the Championship game and Jameson Williams tearing his ACL by halftime. They still almost pulled it out with no wideouts. Their offense was in transition this year and had no experienced wideouts and an often limited Bryce (albeit still fantastic). Some Alabama fans criticize BoB because the offense wasn’t as dynamic this year, but it simply does not hold up.
TBH I don't really know here. Some of the sharper Bama fans I know in general have Jess's take and these aren't spoiled people. In order for me to have a strong opinion I would have had to watch their games but honestly I don't know enough about scheme and running an offense to have a take here.
 

DJnVa

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isnt It more that BOB saw what the Patriots had and designed plays to take advantage of it as opposed to “BOB can’t work because he doesn’t have Gronk and the murderer”?
 

Granite Sox

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Fair enough. Personally I think BOB is the best man for the job. I think he's the exact type of personality that would be best for Mac…
I’ve come around to thinking BOB is the best choice for all the reasons others have stated. I have a couple of other thoughts:
1. The Pats basically need an OC and potentially SEVERAL other offensive coaches (OL, QB, TE if Caley leaves [I believe his contract is up], maybe even WR [Troy didn’t exactly distinguish himself with that group]). There’s a paucity of coaching talent on the offensive side of the ball. I think BOB would likely be able to identify position coaches compatible with the Patriot system while also setting them up for growth if/when BOB himself leaves.
2. When he was here previously, BOB’s nickname was Teapot, because he could blow at any moment (see Brady, Thomas Edward). BOB would not be afraid to tear Mac a new one if he ever showed anyone up, and as much as I like him I think Mac could use a coach stepping on his neck when he gets too big for his britches.
 

Super Nomario

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I’ve come around to thinking BOB is the best choice for all the reasons others have stated. I have a couple of other thoughts:
1. The Pats basically need an OC and potentially SEVERAL other offensive coaches (OL, QB, TE if Caley leaves [I believe his contract is up], maybe even WR [Troy didn’t exactly distinguish himself with that group]). There’s a paucity of coaching talent on the offensive side of the ball. I think BOB would likely be able to identify position coaches compatible with the Patriot system while also setting them up for growth if/when BOB himself leaves.
2. When he was here previously, BOB’s nickname was Teapot, because he could blow at any moment (see Brady, Thomas Edward). BOB would not be afraid to tear Mac a new one if he ever showed anyone up, and as much as I like him I think Mac could use a coach stepping on his neck when he gets too big for his britches.
I think BOB is probably the best choice too, but #1 doesn't distinguish him to me above most of the other candidates. If they bring in another Pats-experienced guy, like Chad O'Shea for instance, it's a similar story. And if they went off the grid (say, Kliff Kingsbury or Frank Reich), they'd want that hire to bring in his own guys because they don't necessarily have positional coaches who can teach that system. I think this would only be a concern if they promoted from within or if they hired someone inexperienced (Zac Robinson, for instance, has only been coaching since 2019 and probably doesn't have the same network that, say, Pep Hamilton does).
 

Justthetippett

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I’ve come around to thinking BOB is the best choice for all the reasons others have stated. I have a couple of other thoughts:
1. The Pats basically need an OC and potentially SEVERAL other offensive coaches (OL, QB, TE if Caley leaves [I believe his contract is up], maybe even WR [Troy didn’t exactly distinguish himself with that group]). There’s a paucity of coaching talent on the offensive side of the ball. I think BOB would likely be able to identify position coaches compatible with the Patriot system while also setting them up for growth if/when BOB himself leaves.
2. When he was here previously, BOB’s nickname was Teapot, because he could blow at any moment (see Brady, Thomas Edward). BOB would not be afraid to tear Mac a new one if he ever showed anyone up, and as much as I like him I think Mac could use a coach stepping on his neck when he gets too big for his britches.
From Mac’s public comments he might actually like (2) as well.
 

luckiestman

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Love this guy.

We got this

View: https://twitter.com/kyle_odegard/status/1612501671317499905?s=46&t=WJ7mprudNTpH40OlwwY5kQ


And this fact candyman posted
Kingsbury despises recruiting so this makes the most sense to me. I don’t see him going back to the NCAA.

Jesus, my secret life of Lucky Mitty doesn’t need to be written as it has already played out. What a guy KK is.
 

snowmanny

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One SB the Pats lose if not for BB and his coaches. Well, maybe not just one, and they don't get to all six without them.
Yes I am waiting on the @BaseballJones book on this play.

People seem to forget that
1) The Patriots loaded up the line with beef;
2) The Seahawks and Lynch actually sort of sucked in short yardage and goal line situations - like literally the worst in the league sucktitude- and NE had stuffed Lynch once already on 3rd and 2 and once on 3rd and 1;
3) The Seahawks were down to their last timeout so if they ran and were stopped their third down play would have been a pass into the end zone that everyone knew was coming.
4) The Seahawks were taken by surprise when the Patriots didn’t call a timeout.

They were baited into a play that New England anticipated
 

BaseballJones

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This is a book I actually think I’m going to write - a deep dive into SB49, which for a lot of reasons is, I think, the greatest SB ever.
 

heavyde050

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Yes I am waiting on the @BaseballJones book on this play.

People seem to forget that
1) The Patriots loaded up the line with beef;
2) The Seahawks and Lynch actually sort of sucked in short yardage and goal line situations - like literally the worst in the league sucktitude- and NE had stuffed Lynch once already on 3rd and 2 and once on 3rd and 1;
3) The Seahawks were down to their last timeout so if they ran and were stopped their third down play would have been a pass into the end zone that everyone knew was coming.
4) The Seahawks were taken by surprise when the Patriots didn’t call a timeout.

They were baited into a play that New England anticipated
Yeah, the Seahawks never and I mean NEVER should have been that close to the goal line, but credit to BB for having the team ready.
That Kearse catch was improbable. Like that always seem to be forgotten because the Pats won the game. But that would have been two SB losses with the helmet catch and the Kearse catch. I mean a couple of years later the Pats got their own improbable catch with Edelman.
 

johnmd20

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Yeah, the Seahawks never and I mean NEVER should have been that close to the goal line, but credit to BB for having the team ready.
That Kearse catch was improbable. Like that always seem to be forgotten because the Pats won the game. But that would have been two SB losses with the helmet catch and the Kearse catch. I mean a couple of years later the Pats got their own improbable catch with Edelman.
The Kearse catch was definitely worse than the helmet.

The Kearse catch was absurd insanity. At least Tyree made an incredible play in 2008. The ball just landed on Kearse's stomach while he was lying on the ground. God damn that feeling was AWFUL. And then it turned into beauty.