The past, present and future Hall of Fame thread

[grimshaw]

Figured it would be easier to start a new one of these since there is quite a bit of spillover from the 2016 thread about guys coming up soon, as well as lots of interest discussing slights.

Post about current or retired player candidacies here. It can be about overlooked guys (like Dewey, Whitaker or Bobby Grich), guys rounding out their hall of fame career (like Pujols) or retired guys awaiting their votes in the next few years.

Hell - talk about guys you can't believe are in the hall as well *cough* Phil Rizzuto. I will post some thoughts later, but wanted to start it up.

 

[coremiller]

Rizzuto is actually a defensible choice, so long as you're willing to give credit for missed seasons due to war. He missed his age 25-27 seasons, plus his age 28 season was affected by the malaria he had contracted during his service. If you give him 3.5 more years of peak value, that's worth something like 14-18 WAR. He's still something of a borderline candidate, but 55-60 WAR is right in line with the bottom tier of HoF SS -- slightly behind Boudreau and Reese, about the same as Aparicio, Sewell, and Tinker, well ahead of much more marginal choices like Travis Jackson, Rabbit Maranville, and Hughie Jennings. Every SS ahead of him in WAR would either be a) in the HoF, b) a 19th century guy, c) not yet eligible (ARod and Jeter), or d) Alan Trammell.

 

[Saints Rest]

I was wondering if there was a way to look back over some chunk of history -- maybe the last 25 years, maybe since the HOF opened, maybe since "modern-era" (I'm not even sure how you define that, 1900?) -- and look at some sort of rolling average showing how many future HOF'ers are typically playing at any given time.

Wikipedia, for example, has all the data needed but it would need to be sorted in some fashion to get the data in the right way. Maybe someone more Excel savvy than I (or someone who uses some software like MiniTab) could make this happen.

For example, in the year 1980, the following 30 future HOFers (players only) were active: McCovey, Stargell, Bench, Morgan, Yaz, Palmer, Carew, Jenkins, Perry, Fingers, Seaver, Jackson, Carlton, Schmidt, Niekro, Sutton, Brett, Ryan, Fisk, Winfield, Ozzie, Carter, Murray, Eck, Molitor, Sutter, Goose, Rice, Dawson, and Blyleven.

By 1982, only Willie McCovey had retired, but Sandberg, Ripken, Gwynn had joined the majors, meaning the total was now 32.

My question is "Historically speaking, is there a typical number of players playing at any one time who become Hall of Famers?" I think it would be interesting, with that knowledge, especially if there is some statistical significance to it, to be able to look at the state of active players at any given time, and say "there are likely 31 (using the extremely SSS of 2 years!) HOF'ers playing in the majors today."

 

[OzSox]

I was wondering if there was a way to look back over some chunk of history -- maybe the last 25 years, maybe since the HOF opened, maybe since "modern-era" (I'm not even sure how you define that, 1900?) -- and look at some sort of rolling average showing how many future HOF'ers are typically playing at any given time.

MLB.com did just that a couple of weeks ago. The average number of HoF players playing at any given time since 1900 is 31.

 

[Saints Rest]

Cool. Thanks.

 

[DJnVa]

Baseball HOFer Monte Irvin has passed away.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/monte-irvin-dies-hall-of-famer-was-96-1.11318405

Monte Irvin, a Hall of Fame outfielder with the Giants and Cubs, died of natural causes at his home in Houston on Monday night, the Baseball Hall of Fame announced Tuesday. He was 96.

Irvin was a star in the Negro Leagues with the Newark Eagles before finding success in Major League Baseball after Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/i/irvinmo01.shtml

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

MLB.com did just that a couple of weeks ago. The average number of HoF players playing at any given time since 1900 is 31.

This is something I've been thinking about: who are the "future Hall of Famers" of today? Pujols, obviously. Ichiro. A-Rod, maybe, if the voters ever change their minds about the whole PED thing. I'm comfortable putting Miguel Cabrera in that category, even though he's "only" 32. David Ortiz's case is polarizing, but I think he'll make it. So that's five, and two of those seem iffy. Who else? Beltran? Beltre? Verlander? Cano? I would have said Sabathia for sure until a year or two ago. Then there are also guys like Trout and Kershaw and McCutchen who are on that track but are still young enough that things could go off the rails.

 

[coremiller]

This is something I've been thinking about: who are the "future Hall of Famers" of today? Pujols, obviously. Ichiro. A-Rod, maybe, if the voters ever change their minds about the whole PED thing. I'm comfortable putting Miguel Cabrera in that category, even though he's "only" 32. David Ortiz's case is polarizing, but I think he'll make it. So that's five, and two of those seem iffy. Who else? Beltran? Beltre? Verlander? Cano? I would have said Sabathia for sure until a year or two ago. Then there are also guys like Trout and Kershaw and McCutchen who are on that track but are still young enough that things could go off the rails.

Active players with >35 bWAR, with years of service and age in parentheses:

1. Alex Rodriguez (21, 39) 118.9
2. Albert Pujols (15, 35) 99.7
3. Adrian Beltre (18, 36) 83.8
4. Carlos Beltran (18, 38) 68.4
5. Miguel Cabrera (13, 32) 64.7
6. Chase Utley (13, 36) 62.3
7. Mark Buehrle (16, 36) 58.5
8. Ichiro Suzuki (15, 41) 58.4
9. CC Sabathia (15, 34) 55.7
10. Robinson Cano (11, 32) 55.1
11. Mark Teixeira (13, 35) 52.4
12. Zack Greinke (12, 31) 51.8
13. David Ortiz (19, 39) 50.4
14. Felix Hernandez (11, 29) 50.1
David Wright (12, 32) 50.1 R
16. Clayton Kershaw (8, 27) 48.5
17. Joe Mauer (12, 32) 47.8
18. Miguel Tejada (16, 41) 46.9
19. Ian Kinsler (10, 33) 46.7
20. Cole Hamels (10, 31) 46.2
21. Jimmy Rollins (16, 36) 46.0
22. Dustin Pedroia (10, 31) 45.1
23. Bartolo Colon (18, 42) 44.9
24. Cliff Lee (13, 36) 44.3
25. Matt Holliday (12, 35) 44.1
26. Justin Verlander (11, 32) 43.6
27. Joey Votto (9, 31) 43.4
28. Evan Longoria (8, 29) 42.6
29. Adrian Gonzalez (12, 33) 41.8
Curtis Granderson (12, 34) 41.8
31. Jake Peavy (14, 34) 40.8
32. Troy Tulowitzki (10, 30) 40.5
33. Ryan Braun (9, 31) 40.0
Carl Crawford (14, 33) 40.0
35. Ben Zobrist (10, 34) 38.5
36. Andrew McCutchen (7, 28) 38.2
37. Mike Trout (5, 23) 37.9
38. Jose Reyes (13, 32) 36.8
Jered Weaver (10, 32) 36.8
40. Adam Wainwright (10, 33) 36.6
41. Freddy Garcia (15, 38) 35.7
42. Hanley Ramirez (11, 31) 35.1

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_active.shtml

The only locks I see if they retired today are ARod (leaving aside PED issues), Pujols, Beltre and Ichiro. Beltran and Utley also have strong cases. Ortiz is borderline. Mauer is a tricky case because catchers get evaluated differently -- he might be in already based on his younger C performance, but he's unlikely to add much value now that he's a no-power 1B/DH, even though he'll probably play several more years.

Cabrera and Cano would be borderline if they retired today but will be locks with 2-3 more good years, and they're both likely to get there.

Then there are several players who need a few more good years just to have a borderline case, and are still young enough where that's plausible. In this group (say 45-52 WAR, 32 or younger), I'd put Grienke, Wright, Hernandez, Pedroia, Kershaw, and Hamels. Of that group, I think Greinke, Kershaw, and Hernandez will get there. Verlander could be here if he regains something like his peak form, but he's trending the wrong way.

Then there are the younger guys who are on track so far but will need to sustain it for several more years. This includes Longoria, Tulowitzki, McCutchen, and Trout. Maybe Braun and Votto as well, although they're both 31 so it will be harder to stay productive long enough. Trout will almost certainly make it barring injury.

Then you have the guys who look likely to come up a little short. Here I'd have Buerhle, Sabathia, Teixeira, Tejada, Kinsler, Rollins, etc.

 

[grimshaw]

Active players with >35 bWAR, with years of service and age in parentheses:

1. Alex Rodriguez (21, 39) 118.9
2. Albert Pujols (15, 35) 99.7
3. Adrian Beltre (18, 36) 83.8
4. Carlos Beltran (18, 38) 68.4
5. Miguel Cabrera (13, 32) 64.7
6. Chase Utley (13, 36) 62.3
8. Ichiro Suzuki (15, 41) 58.4
10. Robinson Cano (11, 32) 55.1
12. Zack Greinke (12, 31) 51.8
13. David Ortiz (19, 39) 50.4
14. Felix Hernandez (11, 29) 50.1
David Wright (12, 32) 50.1 R
16. Clayton Kershaw (8, 27) 48.5
17. Joe Mauer (12, 32) 47.8
19. Ian Kinsler (10, 33) 46.7
20. Cole Hamels (10, 31) 46.2
22. Dustin Pedroia (10, 31) 45.1
27. Joey Votto (9, 31) 43.4
28. Evan Longoria (8, 29) 42.6
32. Troy Tulowitzki (10, 30) 40.5
36. Andrew McCutchen (7, 28) 38.2
37. Mike Trout (5, 23) 37.9

I took out the guys that I think have zero chance.
Cliff Lee, Adam Wainwright and Ben Zobrist were late bloomers which is a shame since each have had more than 1 hall of fame caliber year.

My locks are:
Trout (who can crap 4 WAR seasons until he's 30 and be at roughly 50 WAR already), A-Rod and Pujols. Pujols could have retired before signing with the Angels and probably still gotten in.

My probables are: Kershaw, Beltran, Cabrera, Chase Utley and Ichiro. Utley is underrated in my eyes because he was so ridiculously good during his peak (5 straight years between 7.2 and 8.2 WAR), that his merely good seasons make it look like he fell off a cliff. He ought to be a first ballot guy, but may not. Ichiro is a special case because it's pretty hard to ignore that he had 1000 hits in Japan already,and he came over and dominated for a fairly short period of time. There is much man love around here Beltre but he may get overlooked nationally, just like Scott Rolen, because he had so much defensive value and just 1 or two overall OMG offensive seasons. I would vote for both.

Guys who are well on their way are Cutch, Tulo, Votto, Zack Greinke and King Felix. I think Tulo's key is if he moves off of SS sooner than later. He should absolutely mash over the next few seasons in that lineup. He's a good enough hitter to DH as well. Votto had a nice bounce back year, so hopefully he can do that for another 3 years or so.

Questionable: Beltran could be in this or the other category, since his numbers may be enough as a CF. I could see him getting in in a weak year. Longoria looks to be following the Chase Utley career path, where he is having some solid but unspectacular seasons after a great start. It's too early to tell since he could still play another decade, and who knows. If David Wright can actually stay healthy for 4-5 years he's probably in. 3B is criminally under represented in the Hall and he's probably going to end up top 10-15 of all time. The Ortiz debate has already been dissected on the main board. I'm indifferent if he gets in or not. I'm still of the mind you have to be a top 5ish hitter in the league for a looong time to get in as a full time DH.

We shall see. We shall see: I thought Cano was a lock until he looked pretty toast to me last year. He is playing until roughly 2100 so my guess is that he puts up enough 2-3 WAR seasons he'll limp in. Plus Andy Van Slyke hates him. I'd put Mauer in the same category, but he has looked toast for more than two seasons now. His peak was ridiculous, but I'm not sure it was long enough to offset his current lower tier 1B production. And since he isn't moving back behind the plate, I can't see his career ending too well if you can't justify his bat where it is. Kinsler is sort of the Jeter of that Nomar, A-Rod crew troika that now forms Pedey and Cano. For a while it looked like Pedey and Cano were superior, but Kinsler has been holding his own with an above average bat and excellent defense. If he ages well, he could sneak in ahead of Jeff Kent minus the douche factor. Pedey has a shot because he looked so good when he was finally healthy for that half season, so the elite ability appeared to to still be there. Big if on the health though.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

We shall see. We shall see: I thought Cano was a lock until he looked pretty toast to me last year.

Robinson Cano in the second half last year: .331/.387/.540 with 15 homers. Rumors of his demise have been exaggerated thus far.

Another name I'll throw out there as being "on the track" but maybe a little young still: Buster Posey.

 

[Doug Beerabelli]

That 22 year old Harper guy already has 19.8 WAR. Health yadda yadda, but that's quite a start.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

The only locks I see if they retired today are ARod (leaving aside PED issues), Pujols, Beltre and Ichiro.

I really wonder if Beltre is a lock. He ought to be, but his candidacy is going to hinge on voters giving full value to his defense. Not that his offense hasn't been excellent, but by itself it hasn't been quite Hall-level, just real good. And I think it's fair to say that his defensive reputation, though strong, has lagged a bit behind his defensive metrics. He may fall between two stools in some voters' minds. He doesn't have quite the offense to be a HoF third baseman like Schmidt or Brett or Boggs, but he doesn't have (or isn't universally perceived as having) quite the defense to be a HoF 3B like Brooks Robinson. The fact that he was never on a championship team won't help either.

I hope I'm wrong, because I think he belongs. But I suspect that it will take him a while, and there's at least a slight chance he doesn't make it in at all, in spite of the gaudy WAR numbers. And I think all of that goes double for Beltran (who really does fall on the borderline).

 

[Bowlerman9]

I really wonder if Beltre is a lock. He ought to be, but his candidacy is going to hinge on voters giving full value to his defense. Not that his offense hasn't been excellent, but by itself it hasn't been quite Hall-level, just real good. And I think it's fair to say that his defensive reputation, though strong, has lagged a bit behind his defensive metrics. He may fall between two stools in some voters' minds. He doesn't have quite the offense to be a HoF third baseman like Schmidt or Brett or Boggs, but he doesn't have (or isn't universally perceived as having) quite the defense to be a HoF 3B like Brooks Robinson. The fact that he was never on a championship team won't help either.

I hope I'm wrong, because I think he belongs. But I suspect that it will take him a while, and there's at least a slight chance he doesn't make it in at all, in spite of the gaudy WAR numbers. And I think all of that goes double for Beltran (who really does fall on the borderline).

I think he's undeniably a HOFer and stacks up much better than pretty much everyone but Schmidt.

If he plays two more seasons and ends with over 450 HR, 3,000 hits, 1,600 RBI, and 90 WAR, he will make it. I would argue that he is better than all of the players you mentioned, save for Schmidt (assuming he plays two more years and gets to 3,000 hits).

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I think he's undeniably a HOFer and stacks up much better than pretty much everyone but Schmidt.

If he plays two more seasons and ends with over 450 HR, 3,000 hits, 1,600 RBI, and 90 WAR, he will make it. I would argue that he is better than all of the players you mentioned, save for Schmidt (assuming he plays two more years and gets to 3,000 hits).

I was responding to the "if they retired today" hypothetical, although looking back at my post, that isn't clear. I totally agree that if Beltre is still playing in 2017 (which he will be unless he craters this year at 37), he's highly likely to hit the marks you mention, and that will put him over the top with enough voters to get him in. In fact he's got an excellent shot at the all-time record for RBI while playing third base, which is exactly the kind of number that could persuade hard-core WAR skeptics.

 

[coremiller]

I think Beltre is already in. Obviously he'll be a favorite of the analytics community. But he's also got big counting stats that allow you to play the fun cherry-picked games the traditional voters love. For example, he's the only 3B in history with 400 HRs, 2500 hits, and a Gold Glove. Or, he's 5th all-time among 3B for HRs, and the rest of the top 9 are all in the HoF (except for Chipper Jones, but he'll be in by the time Beltre comes up). Etc. He may not get in on the first ballot (although he should), but I think he'll get in pretty easily.

 

[grimshaw]

3rd base is a shitfest in the hall if you go by the 55 JAWS number.
You've got Freddie Lindstrom and his 7 year peak value WAR at 26 (less than 4 per season) in. Pie Traynor at 25, and George Kell at 27.
Ryan Zimmerman as a reference is at 31, and no one's idea of a hall of famer these days.

Then you have Deacon White who was elected by the Veterans Committee who last played in 1890.

No issues with John McGraw

Jimmy Collins is in - more for his defensive reputation - and his closest comps are Ron Cey and Robin Ventura, which is, at least getting warmer.

The other guys (Home Run Baker, Molitor, Brooks Robinson, Ron Santo, Brett, Boggs, Mathews, and Schmidt) are legit and light years ahead of the previous.

The lack of an elite bat killed guys like Buddy Bell, Sal Bando, and Graig Nettles, even though their overall credentials are worthier than half the inductees.

If Beltre and/or Rolen (whose bat and defense were equal to better albeit in 500+ fewer games) don't get in, it would be pretty f'ed up.

Edit: Mixed up McGraw with Frisch

 

[Spacemans Bong]

I think you mean Frankie Frisch, he helmed the Veteran's Committee for a long time and got many of his former teammates inducted. McGraw was dead before the Hall even existed.

Beltre, short of a catastrophic injury, is going to get 3,000 hits, which will make his election inevitable.

 

[grimshaw]

I think you mean Frankie Frisch, he helmed the Veteran's Committee for a long time and got many of his former teammates inducted. McGraw was dead before the Hall even existed.

Ya - I'm an idiot. Frisch got Jesse Haines, Dave Bancroft, Chick Hafey, Rube Marquand, Ross Youngs and George Kelly in. All of whom have never been in my kitchen.

 

[coremiller]

If Beltre and/or Rolen (whose bat and defense were equal to better albeit in 500+ fewer games) don't get in, it would be pretty f'ed up.

Edit: Mixed up McGraw with Frisch

Rolen will be an interesting case because he didn't have the longevity to get to any impressive career milestones, and a lot his value was in defense and walks, which the voters haven't always appreciated (e.g. Tim Raines). But he was a fantastic player, especially if you believe the defensive metrics. He'll also go on the ballot the same year as Chipper Jones, which will hurt him since Jones has a stronger case by traditional standards, even though he wasn't that much more valuable of a player.

 

[Spacemans Bong]

Scott Rolen was a great player, a Hall of Famer in my book.

I'm interested to see how he does, statheads love him and he did get some press and accolades during his career. Eight time All Star, six Gold Gloves...that's something to work with.