The Pre-game Thread: Week 14 at San Diego

[jsinger121]

Huge AFC road game this week with major playoff implications at stake. Pats are 0-3 on grass this season and this is another one on grass. Pats will be practicing all week in San Diego. Line is Pats -4.
 
 
San Diego is 12th in scoring defense and 8th in total yard allowed. 16th in rushing yards allowed and 7th against the pass.
 
Injuries to monitor
 
Edelman
Hightower
Dobson even though he is irrevelant
 
 
Brady/BB era in San Diego
 
2002 L 21-14
2006 W 24-21 AFC Divisional
2008 L 30-10 *Matt Cassel was the starter*
2010 W 23-20

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Awesome -- thanks for starting another Pre-game thread!

 

[dynomite]

Chargers are 5-1 at home, with the only loss to KC on a FG with :20 remaining.

Weird season* for the Bolts so far. Started 5-1, then lost 3 in a row, then won 3 in a row. In their current 3 game win streak they have won by a combined total of 10 points.

Won't have updated advanced stats for a bit, but FO hates the Chargers defense (ranked 27th overall, with the pass defense ranked 28th) even though they're decent by traditional measures (yds/game, pts/game).

* Note that this 3 game losing streak came in a stretch where they played KC, DEN, and MIA. Only 3 of their 8 wins have come against teams with winning records (SEA, BUF, BAL).

 

[EricFeczko]

Chargers are 5-1 at home, with the only loss to KC on a FG with :20 remaining.

Weird season* for the Bolts so far. Started 5-1, then lost 3 in a row, then won 3 in a row. In their current 3 game win streak they have won by a combined total of 10 points.

Won't have updated advanced stats for a bit, but FO hates the Chargers defense (ranked 27th overall, with the pass defense ranked 28th) even though they're decent by traditional measures (yds/game, pts/game).

* Note that this 3 game losing streak came in a stretch where they played KC, DEN, and MIA. Only 3 of their 8 wins have come against teams with winning records (SEA, BUF, BAL).

FO's models suggest that the chargers are a poor team. This is consistent with the EPA model, suggesting that the chargers are a mediocre team (ranked 17th in offense, 18th in defense). While not as bad as the FO model, the actual numbers are probably not much different between the two (i.e. the difference in rankings may be due to small differences in values).
 
The chargers have not had difficult contests at home this year, and have had an easy schedule in general (opposing game-win-probability is around 0.49 I think). At home, they've beaten the seahawks (when they were good in week 2), the jets, the bills, the raiders, and the rams.
 
As I've said before, this is not a big test of the Pats as a team; in fact I expect a blowout. If the patriots lose due to a failure to move the ball or stop SD (as opposed to fluky stuff), I'd be concerned about the pats.