The premature re-signing Lester thread

[Van Everyman]

Kid keeps tweaking his tweets:

@mlb_nl_al: UPDATE: Lester has offer of 6 years 138 million dollars from Red Sox. Lester has offer from Cubs as well. Sox don't want to lose to Theo

 

[TomBrunansky23]

Jake Wesley MLB
‏@mlb_nl_al UPDATE: Lester has offer of 6 years 138 million dollars from Red Sox. Lester has offer from Cubs as well. Sox don't want to lose to Theo

 

[chrisfont9]

No I'm agreeing that in this case Scherzer will do better than what he turned down, IMO. But I'm just saying that in principle, just because a person turns down an offer, doesn't mean that a bigger one is automatically going to be there right months later. Scherzer took a gamble. I think it'll pay off for him. But it doesn't always.

Definitely. Putting aside the variables like health, performance, etc., I gather you meant the market, and yeah there's no guarantee of it only going up for him. There are the fluctuations of supply and demand, which are significant (compared to big markets in the real world) given that you only have 30 possible buyers, a real number of single or low double digits, and then a fluctuating supply of pitchers. And each contract affects the next one.

 

[CGSO]

Jake Wesley MLB
‏@mlb_nl_al UPDATE: Lester has offer of 6 years 138 million dollars from Red Sox. Lester has offer from Cubs as well. Sox don't want to lose to Theo

 
I'm completely fine with that deal if true. Hamels would be 5 yrs @ 22 AAV. This is 6 yrs @ 23 AAV. Basically the same AAV, just 1 year longer, and we don't have to give up our prospects. Love that Henry is willing to go over the luxury tax.

 

[koufax32]

If those numbers are real it's discouraging that an agreement has not been reached yet.

 

[E5 Yaz]

JakeBot might be overloading his circuitry. From his chat:
 
Who is more likely to be traded bogaerts or napoli? Any other players on block?
 
Napoli if Lester signs. Cespedes and Xander if not 
 
 
 
So, if they sign Lester they will move their first baseman (why, he doesn't sa; but if they don't, Cespedes and Bogaerts could go?
 

 

 

[Snoop Soxy Dogg]

If those numbers are real it's discouraging that an agreement has not been reached yet.

 
It's not about the money..

 

[CaskNFappin]

JakeBot might be overloading his circuitry. From his chat:
 
Who is more likely to be traded bogaerts or napoli? Any other players on block?
 
Napoli if Lester signs. Cespedes and Xander if not 
 
 
 
So, if they sign Lester they will move their first baseman (why, he doesn't sa; but if they don't, Cespedes and Bogaerts could go?
 

 

Napoli gets a number 2 if Lester signs....Ces and X get a 1 AND 2 if not. Pretty simple, not ideal though.

 

[67WasBest]

 
JakeBot might be overloading his circuitry. From his chat:
 
Who is more likely to be traded bogaerts or napoli? Any other players on block?
 
Napoli if Lester signs. Cespedes and Xander if not 
 
 
 
So, if they sign Lester they will move their first baseman (why, he doesn't sa; but if they don't, Cespedes and Bogaerts could go?
 

 

 

Could indicate the trading partner they have identified if Lester signs wants Napoli, and Hanley likely takes 1B.  To obtain the pitching they want, they have to trade Bogaerts?  With him in a deal, just about every ace is on the table for discussion.  Would a 3 way make sense.  Bogaerts, Cespedes and Tijuan Walker to DC, Jason Werth to Seattle, Stassberg and Desmond to Boston?,

 

[E5 Yaz]

Napoli gets a number 2 if Lester signs....Ces and X get a 1 AND 2 if not. Pretty simple, not ideal though.

 
Except for the part where you either have no 1B or no SS

 

[ItOnceWasMyLife]

 
Except for the part where you either have no 1B or no SS

Craig in the first case (not ideal, I know), Marrero in the second (ditto)?

 

[67WasBest]

 
Except for the part where you either have no 1B or no SS

To put butts in seats:
 
If Lester is signed,Napoli will be dealt, and the most likely spot seems to be Seattle for Iwakuma, with Hanley at 1B and Cespedes in LF.
 
If Lester signs elsewhere, Cespedes will be dealt, and I like the deal I suggested for Sanchez where he is bundled with Mujica and Cecchini for Sanchez,   Then it would seem Bogaerts for Hamels.  The top of the rotation would be Hamels and Sanchez, with Hanley at SS until Marrero is ready
 
I really dislike the no Lester scenario

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

Maybe this is too emotional/personal a slant, and yes I realize millions of dollars changes things a bit, but...is it nuts to think Lester (or anyone) might want this settled by tomorrow night so the family can breathe and feel some level of peace when they gather together for turkey and some truly terrible football?

 

[Bergs]

Maybe this is too emotional/personal a slant, and yes I realize millions of dollars changes things a bit, but...is it nuts to think Lester (or anyone) might want this settled by tomorrow night so the family can breathe and feel some level of peace when they gather together for turkey and some truly terrible football?

Sure. Of course it is also not nuts to imagine Lester wanting to delay this decision until after Thanksgiving when he has a chance to discuss the pros and cons with his family.

In other words, armchair psychology always sucks.

 

[Rice4HOF]

According to our favorite 14 year old, Boston's offer is > Cubs. 
https://twitter.com/mlb_nl_al/status/537491211247161344

 

[MakMan44]

So the opposite of what he said earlier. Cool. 
 
EDIT: I guess things change over the course of the day, but this kid has been all over the map. 

 

[HomeRunBaker]

If Theo intends the Cubs to compete, why on earth sign Peavy? Unless it's the only way to convince Lester to sign ... and that makes zero sense.

What does this even mean? Peavy just put up an ERA+ of 161 over the last 40% of his season once moving over to the NL.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

If those numbers are real it's discouraging that an agreement has not been reached yet.

How happy is Theo right now after spending the better part of the week sticking it right up Lucchino's a$$?

Lester should sit tight and watch this tennis match until Valentine's day and cash in for $170m. I'm only half kidding too.

 

[Drek717]

How happy is Theo right now after spending the better part of the week sticking it right up Lucchino's a$$?

Lester should sit tight and watch this tennis match until Valentine's day and cash in for $170m. I'm only half kidding too.

In what way?  The Red Sox offer has been rumored at 6/$130-$140M for a while.  $138M falls perfectly in line with that.  Also, I'm pretty sure if Lester decides to "sit tight and watch" he'll watch the Red Sox trade for two new starters.  So unless he puts zero value in returning to Boston and is really just shopping for the biggest deal what you suggest is a great way for him to screw himself.  Lucchino has been nowhere to be seen, Cherington is running the off-season and he clearly wants to get through his shopping list post-haste.  Waiting him out seems like the wrong tactic right about now.

 

[DJnVa]

EDIT: Double post 

 

[BornToRun]

 
You seem to be taking this kid and the attention he's getting personally.

Where did you get that idea? I don't have any problem with the kid whatsoever, I'm enjoying this thing as much as everybody else.

 

[DJnVa]

 
What scoop? Everyone on this board knew the Sox would go after Lester in the offseason. This isn't exactly news.

 
You seem to be taking this kid and the attention he's getting personally.

 

[DJnVa]

Where did you get that idea? I don't have any problem with the kid whatsoever, I'm enjoying this thing as much as everybody else.

 
 
I quoted wrong person. Apologies, I edited.

 

[BornToRun]

 
 
I quoted wrong person. Apologies, I edited.

No apology necessary. It's cool.

 

[JimD]

In what way?  The Red Sox offer has been rumored at 6/$130-$140M for a while.  $138M falls perfectly in line with that.  Also, I'm pretty sure if Lester decides to "sit tight and watch" he'll watch the Red Sox trade for two new starters.  So unless he puts zero value in returning to Boston and is really just shopping for the biggest deal what you suggest is a great way for him to screw himself.  Lucchino has been nowhere to be seen, Cherington is running the off-season and he clearly wants to get through his shopping list post-haste.  Waiting him out seems like the wrong tactic right about now.

I agree. The Sox are not going to wait and watch their Plan B and C alternatives come off the board. Jon's best leverage is having Boston and Chicago actively negotiating for his services.

 

[C4CRVT]

So according to Jake, the Lester to Sox for 6 year/ 138 is on the table and expires today.
 
Someone in the FO appears to be leaking all of this to Jake. Or he has a bug planted in Ben's office.

 

[smastroyin]

The problem I have with the Cubs interest, objectively, is that they are growing into their competitiveness, not out of it.  So signing a huge contract this year to me doesn't make a lot of sense. The Cubs won 73 games last year despite getting a monster season from Jake Arrieta and great seasons from Samardzija and Jason Hammel (both of whom they traded).  How much better will Lester be than Samardzija was?  How much better would Peavy be than Hammel?  
 
They have a bright future, I just don't know that signing a couple of over 30 pitchers is the right move for them in 2014/5.  They aren't just trying to get over the hump.  That said, Theo may have marching orders to go and get some name recognition to go with their up and coming players, and to do it now.  I just think they are better waiting a year, seeing which of those guys pans out in which way and getting into the trade market.  I'm not saying I don't believe their interest is genuine, I just don't think it's the right time for them and this move.

 

[moondog80]

The problem I have with the Cubs interest, objectively, is that they are growing into their competitiveness, not out of it.  So signing a huge contract this year to me doesn't make a lot of sense. The Cubs won 73 games last year despite getting a monster season from Jake Arrieta and great seasons from Samardzija and Jason Hammel (both of whom they traded).  How much better will Lester be than Samardzija was?  How much better would Peavy be than Hammel?  
 
They have a bright future, I just don't know that signing a couple of over 30 pitchers is the right move for them in 2014/5.  They aren't just trying to get over the hump.  That said, Theo may have marching orders to go and get some name recognition to go with their up and coming players, and to do it now.  I just think they are better waiting a year, seeing which of those guys pans out in which way and getting into the trade market.  I'm not saying I don't believe their interest is genuine, I just don't think it's the right time for them and this move.

 
 
Fangraphs did a piece suggesting that Cubs could easily push past 85 wins next year if they spend this offseason.  Those lineup holes are starting to get filled by young, cheap players.  And they have the capacity for a payroll around 100 million dollars over current levels.  They can afford 4 Jon Lesters.   They'll spend big both this offseason and next.
 
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/initiating-the-cubs-next-level/

 

[glennhoffmania]

How many games did the Sox win last year, with partial great seasons from Lester and Lackey? If the Sox can be competitive, why can't the Cubs with all of their young talent? There's so much parity right now, and with the right moves, the Cubs could be in the mix...and a move for Lester is about the next 6-7 years.

 
Because Boston is counting on more contribution this year from guys like Pedroia, Napoli, and Victorino, and the other guys who will play are Castillo, Hanley, Pablo, Craig, and Cespedes (barring any trades) as opposed to a bunch of 22 year olds.  Just because the teams performed similarly last year doesn't mean that they're similarly situated for this year.

 

[Montana Fan]

The delay in signing must be to see if Lester's agent can get a team to go to 7 years.

 

[glennhoffmania]

Sure, that's fair. I'd assume the Cubs are also expecting to benefit from a full season of Soler, continued growth from Rizzo and Castro, emergence of Bryant, etc. Fill in around the edges and a few starters and they could certainly make the leap into a wild card contender, at least. That they might not be a WS contender next year doesn't mean they shouldn't offer Lester or Scherzer or whomever a 6-7 year deal.

 
But I think the question some people are raising is, would Lester (or anyone in his situation) want to possibly have to spend the first two or three years of the contract playing for a team that's building towards the future as opposed to one whose window is right now.

 

[EdRalphRomero]

Look...I am only going to say this once -- and this is a problem that permeates our society but this thread is an obvious example.  We need to stop yelling about how things are premature or making fun of things to our friends saying they are premature  when they are clearly not premature but right in the normal range for a man or for a contract discussion or whatever. 

 

[Soxfan in Fla]

The delay in signing must be to see if Lester's agent can get a team to go to 7 years.

Either that or a NTC. Agree that is a likely possibility. Unless the MFY suddenly swoop in I don't see any of the other teams involved going far above where the Cubs and Sox are. Cubs and Sox seem to be in almost identical positions with offers. My impression all along is if there are 2-3 similar offers year and money wise Lester would choose Boston. Unless the Cubs go 7, NTC or substantially increase money without the Sox following suit he will choose to return to the Sox. My hunch is this finishes next week. Would be surprised if a final decision is made over the holiday weekend. I think Lester and his agents want to let the suitors have a weekend to mull over an increase in offer in some fashion.

 

[Leather]

Look...I am only going to say this once -- and this is a problem that permeates our society but this thread is an obvious example.  We need to stop yelling about how things are premature or making fun of things to our friends saying they are premature  when they are clearly not premature but right in the normal range for a man or for a contract discussion or whatever. 

 
3 minutes is plenty of time!

 

[smastroyin]

I know the Cubs can be good.  The assumption that I put so little thought behind my posts annoys me.  I realize it is silly season and the main board has been a miasma of suck and people popping off half cocked, but rest assured I did not just look at the Cubs 73 wins and say "oh they suck."   I already identified their upside potential, but it comes with downside risk.  I realize there is the patently Rudy "Red Sox players always fail, other team's players always succeed" bias, but Bryant isn't any more of a sure bet than Bogaerts.  Soler has had both of his US seasons cut short by injury.  etc.  They also seem to have less elasticity of demand for their product than the Red Sox.  (Personally, while I don't care about the other people's money aspect of this off-season, I am not convinced blowing their load is a great move for the Red Sox either, but they are in a little bit more of a bind because their current business model demands that they be good year after year - as well they have to worry about aging whereas the Cubs don't this year or next).  
 
For the Cubs to sign big contracts this year isn't going to cripple them or anything, I just think they are a year or two early from really knowing their needs.  I realize the counterargument is that top of the line starting pitching is rare enough that you always need it, but at the end of the day, I expect Jon Lester (or Max Scherzer) to be getting worse just as the rest of the team is peaking.  And, again, this is all fine if Ricketts doesn't care about his bottom line.  I'm just (still) surprised that they would really be going for it this year. 

 

[grimshaw]

Whether it is wise or not, Theo is on record http://m.mlb.com/news/article/98226486/theo-epstein-says-cubs-goal-is-to-win-national-league-central-in-2015
 
I can see the Cubs following the (as we can tell) Red Sox model of signing one of the two major free agents, and trading for the same type of cost controlled pitcher the Red Sox are looking for.  I'm assuming that would be enough to make them a WC contender and give the fans some hope.  This is year 3 of Theo's run, and his farm has never been riper.

 

[chrisfont9]

Either that or a NTC. Agree that is a likely possibility. Unless the MFY suddenly swoop in I don't see any of the other teams involved going far above where the Cubs and Sox are. Cubs and Sox seem to be in almost identical positions with offers. My impression all along is if there are 2-3 similar offers year and money wise Lester would choose Boston. Unless the Cubs go 7, NTC or substantially increase money without the Sox following suit he will choose to return to the Sox. My hunch is this finishes next week. Would be surprised if a final decision is made over the holiday weekend. I think Lester and his agents want to let the suitors have a weekend to mull over an increase in offer in some fashion.

Either that or he's signed but that kid is still in school. Don't they let them out early for Thanksgiving?

 

[Montana Fan]

Whether it is wise or not, Theo is on record http://m.mlb.com/news/article/98226486/theo-epstein-says-cubs-goal-is-to-win-national-league-central-in-2015
 
I can see the Cubs following the (as we can tell) Red Sox model of signing one of the two major free agents, and trading for the same type of cost controlled pitcher the Red Sox are looking for.  I'm assuming that would be enough to make them a WC contender and give the fans some hope.  This is year 3 of Theo's run, and his farm has never been riper.

 
My thought on Theo's interest in Lester is 1. He know him and his health very well. 2. No loss of draft pick if he signs Lester.    I think Smas is accurate with his gauge of the Cubs but the 2 factors I mentioned have sped Theo up wrt to a big FA signing.

 

[grimshaw]

 
My thought on Theo's interest in Lester is 1. He know him and his health very well. 2. No loss of draft pick if he signs Lester.   

Not to mention Theo could sell him on bringing a World Championship to the Cubs and free beers forever.  On top of a gentle fan base.
He's got to be really conflicted.

 

[Otis Foster]

Either that or he's signed but that kid is still in school. Don't they let them out early for Thanksgiving?

He'll be a little late. He's in detention - caught texting BC

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Smas, your take on the Cubs is reasonable, but what if they're planning a BIG hike in payroll? Theo might see Lester as a guy to lead the rotation now and eventually be Pedro's 1B to a younger guy's (Cueto?) Schilling's 1A. And they start really competing in 2016. In that case, he just needs a small leap of faith from Lester, something he might have already earned.

 

[CaskNFappin]

https://twitter.com/ken_rosenthal/status/537592258573647872
link to tweet

Based on this - couldn't hurt to solve our backup C situation with another year of Ross.

 

[SoxFanForsyth]

Not to mention Theo could sell him on bringing a World Championship to the Cubs and free beers forever.  On top of a gentle fan base.
He's got to be really conflicted.

I disagree with this.

If Theo is selling the Cubs, it starts with him trying to sell Chicago as a nice area to raise a family, nice suburbs, very similar to Boston, which he knows Lester considers a comfortable environment. Then you move on to the guys he's going to be around everyday, Maddon, pitching coaches, etc.

Winning and free beer does not conflict a guy like Lester, not when its between the Cubs and Sox both of which look to win soon. It's the comfort that would conflict him, and that's where the Sox have a huge advantage, particularly with Farrell.

 

[67WasBest]

Is Rosenthal suggestion a Lester deal has a Ross kicker?

 

[E5 Yaz]

Is Rosenthal suggestion a Lester deal has a Ross kicker?

 
Rosenthal was just on Hot Stove and noted that the Red Sox, Cubs and Braves all need a backup catcher. He directly said that Lester's reps had not made this a pre-condition, but that, as a sweetener, it couldn't hurt

 

[SoxFanForsyth]

[URL="https://twitter.com/ken_rosenthal/status/537592258573647872

https://twitter.com/ken_rosenthal/status/537592258573647872"]

link to tweet[/url]

https://twitter.com/ken_rosenthal/status/537592258573647872
[URL="https://twitter.com/ken_rosenthal/status/537592258573647872

https://twitter.com/ken_rosenthal/status/537592258573647872"]link

link to tweet to tweet[/url]
link
link to tweet to tweet

Based on this - couldn't hurt to solve our backup C situation with another year of Ross.


Yeah. As quiet as Vazquez is behind the plate, and as good of a framer as he is, I think Lester wouldn't have a problem throwing to him. He gets a lot of low calls. Those backdoor cutters that break slightly below the knees, too many times those don't get stolen for him. I can see Vazquez and Lester working well together

 

[rodderick]

Is Rosenthal suggestion a Lester deal has a Ross kicker?

 
I think those stats are kind of misleading because the other catchers Lester worked with were Salty and AJP, who aren't exactly known for their defensive abilities/framing skills. I'd wager if he played a full season with Vazquez, his numbers wouldn't differ much from those he compiled with Ross. That tweet basically tells me "hey, look at how much better Lester was when pitching to a good defensive catcher in contrast to shitty ones".

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

https://twitter.com/ken_rosenthal/status/537592258573647872
link to tweet

Based on this - couldn't hurt to solve our backup C situation with another year of Ross.

 
Then again, consider what the alternatives were. It doesn't necessarily change that information meaningfully to re-frame it as
 
Lester’s ERA past two seasons with #RedSox was 2.77 with Ross a good pitch framer, 3.85 without him a mediocre one.
 
In which case Ross may be superfluous now that CV's here. Of course there's more to a pitcher/catcher collaboration than framing, but still.
 
EDIT: Curse you rodderick! And you too SFF!

 

[CaskNFappin]

Even still, there aren't any enticing options on the C market really....so why not pony up the pennies it'll take to get a guy we know/like and Lester is at least comfortable with. Could sway things just a tad.

 

[67WasBest]

I would never suggest money is not an object for the team, but in 2015, I don't think money is an option and throwing $2M at Ross for one final go round is fine by me.