Why is 28,000 an unacceptable size for a ballpark? 12 teams are averaging over 30,000 in attendance this year (and a couple of those just barely). What is the incremental value of a few thousand more cheap seats vs the decreased scarcity value if tickets are always readily available? What drives an MLB team’s revenue in 2018 and going forward?
A ballpark is a glorified television studio. A team is interested in selling premium seating and creating a tough ticket perception that drives overall interest and TV ratings. Baseball stadiums are too big across the board. Look at the percentage of capacity numbers for this year. Boston has a historically great team and one of the smaller parks in the league and they can’t consistently sell out. There is no good reason why an MLB team should be playing in a venue twice the size of the NBA/NHL with twice as many games per year. The Lightning sell out every game at 19k, if the Rays did the same in a small stadium, they’d be in great shape. The trend in new ballpark sizes has been consistently downward and it probably should have been even more aggressively so. 28,000 is an incremental move beyond the low 30’s that has been the recent trend, but, if I were Stu Sternberg, I’d have gone even smaller.
Because if your market actually has fans, you'll comfortably do better than 28,000 on a night to night basis. There's only so much revenue you can squeeze out of a fanbase that is starting at a half million per year disadvantage to the other teams in the division if and when you're contending. Furthermore, is there any sign that having a bandbox drives TV ratings? The Indians struggle attendance-wise, but get the best TV ratings in baseball. The Rays tarp over a bunch of the Trop right now, to the point they only make 31,000 tickets available, and still no one goes to their games.
I agree Tampa shouldn't be building a 50,000 seat stadium, but that they think a little better than half that is appropriate is a sign they aren't really a major league market. The Athletics are looking for something between 34-37,000, and that's a fanbase that is permanently doomed to live within the shadow of the Giants. SunTrust Park in Atlanta has 42,000 seats - a downgrade on Turner, but still enough (and they're starting to fill it, or most of it on a nightly basis now that the team is good).
Furthermore, the richer teams are ahead of the curve on this (perhaps because gate receipts aren't shared revenue). The Red Sox, Cubs, Giants and Yankees all clear over 40% of their revenue from ticket sales. The Dodgers are about the same in raw dollars as those four. The TV bubble won't last forever. It's going to be impossible for the Rays to clear that percentage of revenue with a Triple-A sized park.
I'd also question whether making it extremely expensive for families to attend games is actually going to help the Rays build a fanbase. I don't think you create baseball fans solely via the medium of television like you do for football or basketball.