The "Replacing Ortiz" thread
- Thread starter Yelling At Clouds
- Start date
Potential power bats aren't just falling off the vine like they were in 2003 though; those mostly get identified and locked up early in today's game.
I'm not talking about the George Springer's of the world. Ortiz was released and considered an injury risk. Giambi didn't pan out but cost us John Hancock. Millar was headed to Japan until the Sox broke an unwritten rule about waivers. There are guys who show a sparkle but aren't trusted to put up numbers consistently - the Sox are in a decent position to spend very little compared to the EE's of the world and try a couple of guys out (again, if they don't bank on someone in AA or lower being in the opening day lineup next year).
The Jays announcers talk as if it is a foregone conclusion EE or Joey Bats replaces Ortiz. They say both guys are buddies with Ortiz and think Boston DH is a nice gig.
Last I heard JB demanded 5+ years at 30+ mil. His meh season + DL so far obviously means he'll bring that insane expectation down, but I still would want EE over him if we do go after a DH in FA.
Wait, what? Sure, sometimes young players take a step back, but it's not typical. Usually players trend upward until they peak at some point in their mid-20s. Different analyses I've read have found different typical peak ages, but they're usually somewhere between 24 and 27. The 2014 Red Sox had zero position players who had made a significant positive contribution the previous year and were in their age-27 or younger season. The 2017 Red Sox will have four, and that's not even counting Swihart. You don't see a difference there?
He thinks Jacoby Ellsbury should be a starting point for JBJ signing a pre arb contract. Nuance is not his thing.
The 2014 is also a pretty good example of how young players don't necessarily progress the way you expect them to, as 21-year-old Xander Bogaerts slumped horrifically for a few months, 24-year-old Jackie Bradley couldn't figure out MLB pitching, and 25-year-old Will Middlebrooks demonstrated that he sucks. All had more MLB experience than either Benintendi or Moncada likely will this time next year, whom everyone - myself included! - has pencilled in to significant roles next year.
If there is a solid 1 - 5 in the rotation I'd say yes. The problem is the Sox need all 5.67 runs/gm to compensate for the lack of pitching at the back-end of the rotation. Without Ortiz you're down around 5 runs/gm which makes the need for solid arms in the 4 and 5 slots that much more important. Unless another solid, inning eating arm can be added and ERod returns healthy and able to pitch then the loss of offense Ortiz provides will be definitely missed.
The only quibble here is that we may well need to outscore the next best team by 80 runs because their pitching might well be 80 runs better than ours. (Obviously we're not scoring in aggregate here but you get the point). There is no trophy for having the league's best offense, whether by 1 run or 81.
This I agree with. I think the biggest questions are whether the FO is willing to eat Panda's contract and whether any of the current ML assets in the corner IF / corner OF mix get traded.
It'll be interesting to see how they do things. As direct replacements go, there's no top-shelf LHH with power on the market until 2018. And while Harper's almost a lock for pinstripes, it'd be nice to see DDski pull a DD when he signed Manny after 1999.
Having seen how the team's operated this year, though, my guess is that the 2017 Sox will attempt to leverage "positional flexibility" so that they can rotate players through DH, retain a 3-man bench, and carry 8 relievers.
So for 2017, I see the team bringing back (at a relatively low-cost) 1B/OF Brandon Moss to platoon offensively with Chris Young.
Although, that's based on general stability of the positional roster and no return by Sandoval (who I think will "recover" from his shoulder surgery to a significant reduction of his already sapped power, and will therefore have no meaningful use whatsoever). So it all depends on how DDski addresses the pitching situation, which is the more immediately essential part of the team to address than losing Ortiz.
And I'm good with Papi going the "Roger Clemens" route and retiring but then returning for half a season.
Having seen how the team's operated this year, though, my guess is that the 2017 Sox will attempt to leverage "positional flexibility" so that they can rotate players through DH, retain a 3-man bench, and carry 8 relievers.
So for 2017, I see the team bringing back (at a relatively low-cost) 1B/OF Brandon Moss to platoon offensively with Chris Young.
Although, that's based on general stability of the positional roster and no return by Sandoval (who I think will "recover" from his shoulder surgery to a significant reduction of his already sapped power, and will therefore have no meaningful use whatsoever). So it all depends on how DDski addresses the pitching situation, which is the more immediately essential part of the team to address than losing Ortiz.
And I'm good with Papi going the "Roger Clemens" route and retiring but then returning for half a season.
Jeff Blair @SNJeffBlair 2h2 hours ago
Major League Baseball is expected to look into David Ortiz's comments re. Edwin Encarnacion. Players subject to tampering rules as r execs.
Major League Baseball is expected to look into David Ortiz's comments re. Edwin Encarnacion. Players subject to tampering rules as r execs.
Ortiz is just going to say he was kidding and that will be the end of that. At most he'd get a tiny fine and a stern "Don't do it again" form the League Office
Mind you, If I was a Blue Jays fan I would have been quite pissed about this.
Harper isn't a free agent until 2019 and is rumored to be talking extension with the Nats http://espn.go.com/blog/mlb/rumors/post/_/id/25521/mlb-rumor-central-open-dialogue-on-bryce-harper-extension
Which is to say nothing of the fact that with the young guys nearing FA as well in that window, spending $40M a year on Harper should be nowhere near the table, let alone on it.
They should drag out the process until the end of the year, then ban him from playing for life.
Why? Ballplayers in today's game have friends on every club. I can only imagine what's said in text messages.
I agree. I think the "tampering" rules were made for a different era, particularly when it comes to what players can say. Certainly, there are things that organizations and executives should not do; but this notion that players should be wrist-slapped for innocuous comments is regressive
Blue Jay fans tend to be very sensitive over any kind of slight (I know - I'm surrounded by them) - many are still annoyed over Farrell's move (even though they thought he stunk). They have a continent wide chip on their collective shoulders - "MLB is against us because we are Canadian" - that sort of thing.
But just remember - how would we have felt if Ellsbury had been palling around with MFY players at the all star game in 2013 and being openly courted by them? (I know - was Ellsbury even at the ASG in 2013? - doesn't matter - its just an example)
I do agree with the general consensus that tampering amongst players is so widespread that nobody really cares anymore. But MLB has to appear to be doing something about it.
Larry Bird is not walking through that door.
DH does not automatically mean MVP-caliber best hitter in the league, with the clutchiest of clutch cred, even now that clutch doesn't exist. It is going to be a long time before there is another DH like Big Papi, at any price.
If you are going to spend large per WARP, the better place to spend it is at the other end of the defensive spectrum, for all the reasons discussed above. There is no "replacing" Ortiz, there is only building the best team you can, with the resources available.