The Starting Rotation's Start

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Dewey'sCannon

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It's going to be shitty weather on Monday anyway...probably better to push him back regardless.

As far as the skeptics go, do they think they're going to avoid pitching Price at Fenway for the rest of the year? That he really needs to be protected from a few sports-radio-fueled half-wits booing him?
I read an interview with Price where he cited the forecast for Monday as one of the reasons they were pushing him back to Tuesday in Anaheim. Makes sense, if there's any chance that his hand "sensations" (or lack thereof) were related to the cold weather.
 

BaseballJones

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Sale 1.06
Porcello 1.83
Price 2.40

And oh yeah, that Pomeranz guy (17-6, 3.32 last year) due to return soon. And Ed "17.2 K/9" Ro.

Why did 99% of pundits pick them in second place, again?

Because nobody thinks those three are going to end up with ERAs that look anything like that?

The Sox are really good. Couldn't have asked for a better start. 10-2, taking two of three from NY. Excellent work to begin the year.
 

In my lifetime

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If weather is a factor in the decision process, Raynaud's is a more likely cause. It is very easy to diagnose though and you would think if that is it, they would have stated it already.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Because nobody thinks those three are going to end up with ERAs that look anything like that?
Well, clearly. But I got the sense the pre-season prognosticators rated the starting rotations of the Sox and Yankees as close to a push, which is odd given that the MFY rotation appears to be comprised of a 24-year old coming off one great season plus a bunch of guys. Even given the tiny sample we have to work with, it seems like the Sox advantage in that area was underplayed.

On the other hand, I have to assume the durability questions surrounding Price played into the underrating of the Sox starting pitching (makes no sense otherwise) and we may be seeing that realized with the "sensation" thing. Fingers crossed it's just a one-off.

Otherwise, I think it's fair to say the starting rotation has been ... wait for it ... sensational.
 

AB in DC

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Keep in mind that the Sox started the year with three starting pitchcrs on the DL with uncertain returns.

Factor in Pedroia and Thornburg missing a good chunk of the season, and I'd probably have ranked the Yankees ahead of them, too.
 

The Gray Eagle

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MLB.com shows these probable upcoming starters:

Fri.: Eduardo Rodriguez at home vs. Orioles
Sat.: Velazquez
Sun.: Sale
Mon.: Brian Johnson
Tues. at Anaheim: Price
Wed. at Anaheim: still TBA

Pomeranz is making a rehab start tonight, so he might be available on Wednesday, and Eduardo will be on regular rest then as well.
I would guess if Pomeranz feels ready after tonight, he would start Wed., followed on Thursday by Eduardo.
Then we might possibly go with either Johnson or Velazquez on Friday, then Sale on Saturday, and if everything goes well in his next start, Price again on Sunday.

(Those projections for after Tuesday are just my guesses though.)
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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MLB.com shows these probable upcoming starters:

Fri.: Eduardo Rodriguez at home vs. Orioles
Sat.: Velazquez
Sun.: Sale
Mon.: Brian Johnson
Tues. at Anaheim: Price
Wed. at Anaheim: still TBA

Pomeranz is making a rehab start tonight, so he might be available on Wednesday, and Eduardo will be on regular rest then as well.
I would guess if Pomeranz feels ready after tonight, he would start Wed., followed on Thursday by Eduardo.
Then we might possibly go with either Johnson or Velazquez on Friday, then Sale on Saturday, and if everything goes well in his next start, Price again on Sunday.

(Those projections for after Tuesday are just my guesses though.)
So Porcello never makes another start? ;)

His regular rest puts his turn on Tuesday, but with Price pushed back, it pushes Porcello too. My guess is he starts Wednesday and Pomeranz goes Thursday if he's truly ready to go. If he is back and Price is ok, Monday will be the last day they need a start from Johnson or Velazquez for a while.
 

chrisfont9

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Well, clearly. But I got the sense the pre-season prognosticators rated the starting rotations of the Sox and Yankees as close to a push, which is odd given that the MFY rotation appears to be comprised of a 24-year old coming off one great season plus a bunch of guys. Even given the tiny sample we have to work with, it seems like the Sox advantage in that area was underplayed.

On the other hand, I have to assume the durability questions surrounding Price played into the underrating of the Sox starting pitching (makes no sense otherwise) and we may be seeing that realized with the "sensation" thing. Fingers crossed it's just a one-off.

Otherwise, I think it's fair to say the starting rotation has been ... wait for it ... sensational.
To me the key is Porcello, who toggles back and forth between 4-5 WAR seasons and replacement-level ones. The prognosticators tend toward splitting the baby or assuming the most recent results will continue. In reality, Porcello will most likely either make a huge contribution to this team and giving us the best rotation around, or will be a drag on the rest of the team who will try to minimize their reliance on him. He's never had a season where his production is somewhere in the middle of his range.

[I refuse to say anything about how he's started because it can only do harm.]
 

BillMuellerFanClub

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Not sure if this has been posted yet, but I thought this article from the Athletic was a really great look at the way David Price has been honing his craft over the last couple of years, becoming less reliant on the separation between his 4 seamer and change in favor of the sinker/cutter.
 

bradmahn

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It would seem that Pomeranz is ready to return.

Ryan Hannable: "Drew Pomeranz will start Friday in Oakland, per @bradfo. It will be his first start this season."

With the rain out Monday, the rotation will be Price on Tuesday (4/17), then Porcello (18), Rodriguez (19), Pomeranz (20), and Sale (21).
 

shaggydog2000

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I read an interview with Price where he cited the forecast for Monday as one of the reasons they were pushing him back to Tuesday in Anaheim. Makes sense, if there's any chance that his hand "sensations" (or lack thereof) were related to the cold weather.
I would guess the high likelihood of a rainout or a rain shortened outing on Monday would be the reason he would be getting pushed back rather than the sensational thing.
 

grimshaw

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Things always have a way of working themselves out, but I wonder once Wright and Thornburg are ready if the Sox will have to Dodger it with short DL stints in order to keep everyone. If the Dodgers can get away with it, I hope the Sox can as well.

Assuming 12 pitchers -

Sale
Price
Porcello
Eduardo
Pomeranz

Kelly
Barnes
Smith
Thornburg
Kimbrel
Wright
Johnson

That leaves probably Hembree on the bubble since there are already two long guys. Hector, Walden, and Poyner are the obvious shuttle guys. And they also have Scott, Workman and Maddox once he's healthy.

My guess is someone gets phantom DL'd when Wright is ready since his trade value is rather minimal until he shows he is healthy. This guy was a stud two years ago and he's been unlucky with injuries so I'd like to see what he can do. No one is really deserving of losing their job at this point.

The depth will be fantastic.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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It probably makes more sense to keep Hector — who’s been great! — stretched out in Pawtucket, and use the unoptionable Brian Johnson as the long reliever.
That does, unfortunately, make mor sense.
I'd expect Walden to get some consideration for going back down, at least briefly, and keep Velazquez up in case they need to piggyback Pomeranz
 

Remagellan

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That would be a smart move. At his best Drew sometimes has trouble going deep in games. If they have him on a limited pitch count for his first few starts, it would be wise to have a second “starter” ready in the pen to handle a long stretch of the game.
 

Sale4CY

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That would be a smart move. At his best Drew sometimes has trouble going deep in games. If they have him on a limited pitch count for his first few starts, it would be wise to have a second “starter” ready in the pen to handle a long stretch of the game.
ALL of our starters have trouble going ‘deep’ into games but that is more due to Cora’s managing than anything else. If Sale can only get us 5, Drew might be a 4 inning pitcher with Cora.
 

nvalvo

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The MLB average (so far) this season is about 5.3 IP/start. Last season it was above 5.5. In 2016, it was above 5.6.

You can lay this at the feet of Cora if you want, but it's the direction that the game is trending.
 

Unin10D

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Sale went 5 but he also had thrown 93 pitches in absolutely crappy conditions. He went 6 the start before, and maybe would've gone longer had the offense not put that game out of reach.

I have no complaints about how Cora has managed the starters so far. Last year it seemed the rotation, particularly Sale, got tired down the stretch. If the front office and Cora thinks that limiting innings in April and May will lead to better innings in September and October, I'm all for it. When Pom comes back, I can definitely see Wright/Velazquez/Johnson being used as a middle innings eater to get the fifth/sixth/seventh innings and save the bullpen core.

Going into the season, the starting rotation was the strength of the team. The offense has been a welcomed addition. But this team will need solid starting pitching to go far in October and I'm glad that there's a proactive approach in place
 

BaseballJones

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Game logs for Boston's starters through 15 games:

Sale:
6.0 ip, 92 pitches, 0 er
5.0 ip, 93 pitches, 1 er
6.0 ip, 87 pitches, 1 er
5.0 ip, 93 pitches, 1 er

Price:
7.0 ip, 76 pitches, 0 er
7.0 ip, 91 pitches, 0 er
1.0 ip, 35 pitches, 4 er (felt numbness in his throwing hand)

Porcello:
5.1 ip, 89 pitches, 1 er
7.1 ip, 94 pitches, 3 er
7.0 ip, 99 pitches, 0 er

Rodriguez:
3.2 ip, 92 pitches, 3 er
6.0 ip, 104 pitches, 1 er

Velazquez:
5.2 ip, 79 pitches, 1 er
5.0 ip, 86 pitches, 2 er

Johnson:
6.0 ip, 82 pitches, 1 er

Of the Red Sox' 15 starts, in 8 of them the starters have gone 6.0 innings or more. For what it's worth, the Red Sox' starting pitchers have pitched the 2nd most innings in the American League (141.0), just behind league leader Houston (144.2) and well ahead of the third place team, Cleveland (126.1). And it should be noted that Houston has played one more game than Boston as well. What Red Sox' starters - basically except for the game Price didn't feel right - have done is consistently gone 5-7 innings.

If you look across baseball (see: http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/sort/thirdInnings), you'll see that the top 5 pitchers in terms of innings pitched are:

Manaea, Oak - 4 games, 27.2 innings, 6.9 ip (note, this number isn't using the decimal as a third of an inning, but rather a tenth of an inning)
Scherzer, Was - 4 games, 27.0 innings, 6.8 ip
Verlander, Hou - 4 games, 26.2 innings, 6.7 ip
Strasburg, Was - 4 games, 26.1 innings, 6.6 ip
Kershaw, LAD - 4 games, 26.0 innings, 6.5 ip

So not a single starting pitcher in all of MLB - even those who are dominating so far - with 4 or more starts has averaged more than 7 innings a start. Of those who have pitched 3 games or more, only Kluber (3 games, 23.0 ip, 7.7 avg) and Cole (3 games, 21.0 ip, 7.0 avg) have averaged 7.0 innings or more.

In Kluber's three starts, he's thrown 91, 96, and 103 pitches, for an average of 96.7 per game. Sale is averaging 91.3 pitches per game. So clearly in the case of Sale, the Sox are saving him about an inning of work. Sale averaged 107.1 pitches per start in 2017 (about 16.0 pitches per inning, compared to 16.6 in 2018), so he's a little less efficient so far this season. They're doing this with him in the hopes that he will be strong in September and October. Seeing as though the Sox are 3-1 (should be 4-0 if not for the bullpen implosion in game 1) in his starts, it's working out well so far.

Any complaining on April 16 that Chris Sale isn't going deep enough into games is way off base.
 

grimshaw

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ALL of our starters have trouble going ‘deep’ into games but that is more due to Cora’s managing than anything else. If Sale can only get us 5, Drew might be a 4 inning pitcher with Cora.
They lead the majors in quality starts with 8. You need to go at least 6 for a quality start so that just isn't accurate. Unless you want their starters to get exposed to lineups the 4th time around, I'm fine with this approach in the early going.This isn't 1911 anymore where pitchers throw until their arms fall off.

You should probably update your handle if you really think Sale is barely going to get through 5.
 
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richgedman'sghost

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Could you stop with this nonsense please? You started it in the game thread and have continued with it even after given proof to the contrary. Before his last start, Price had gone seven innings twice and the rotation has been averaging 6 innings a start. Cora stated that Sale could have gone 7 plus innings against the Yankees but after the long bottom of the sixth, he took Sale out.
If Sale would have gotten injured pitching with a 14 to 1 lead, you would be calling WEEI asking why is Sale pitching with a 13 run lead?
Regarding yesterday's game in particular, it was 30 degrees out. Sale himself said it was the worst conditions he ever pitched in. The Red Sox were lucky to get 5 innings from Chris Sale. If Sale is injured pitching the 6th, you would be singing a different complaint.
 

In my lifetime

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Even though this starting pitcher usage may be skewed by the fact that we are only entering the 3rd week of April, I actually think it is likely that this will be a new norm (an extension of the trend for the last decade) for the RS and the league in the coming years. In 2017, if you throw out starts of < 80 pitches assuming those were the result of poor performance, injury or return from injury; the league's starting pitchers threw 81-99 pitches in 61% of their starts and 39% 100 + pitches with the RS having the 2nd highest percentage of 80+ pitches thrown with 72% (Washington was #1). Through 15 games, the RS already have had their starters pitch between 80-99 pitches 11 times compared with 43 for the entire 162 game schedule last year.

Considering what the RS starters did on the playoffs, I applaud the apparent change in philosophy. The season is a marathon and there is no reason to break out into a sprint until the playoffs. The hope is that we get Sale et al healthy and in peak form at the end of the season.

I would also expect that this continued tempering of starter usage also further tightens the reliever market as every team employing this strategy will now need 4 capable relievers available in every game and it will be rare when a team turns over the ball to the pen in the 8th or later.
 

Sam Ray Not

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People in the game thread seemed concerned about Sale's heater maxing out at 91-92 mph. Ditto Kimbrel's. Is that a function of some combo of the extreme cold and the early season, or something to keep an eye on?
 

Sale4CY

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I’m sorry but I just don’t buy this whole narrative in baseball that you absolutely must get starters out of the game once they approach 100 pitches. At this rate, we won’t even have starters anymore in baseball, everyone will be having ‘bullpen’ games like Tampa does. Who wants to watch that?
 

Sale4CY

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People in the game thread seemed concerned about Sale's heater maxing out at 91-92 mph. Ditto Kimbrel's. Is that a function of some combo of the extreme cold and the early season, or something to keep an eye on?
I’m definitely a little concerned about Sale’s velocity but I’ll give it another month before I panic. He’s throwing over 2 mph slower on average than last year and can’t get his fastball into the upper 90’s at all, while he routinely did that all of last year, even in cold weather starts. his fastball was so slow yesterday (86-88) that it was registering as changeups on nesn and he only had 9 swing and misses all game.
 

BaseballJones

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I’m sorry but I just don’t buy this whole narrative in baseball that you absolutely must get starters out of the game once they approach 100 pitches. At this rate, we won’t even have starters anymore in baseball, everyone will be having ‘bullpen’ games like Tampa does. Who wants to watch that?
Who cares? It wasn't THAT long ago that LaRussa launched the bullpen revolution, giving relievers specialized roles. Who wants to watch that? Well....a lot of people apparently.

Who says the game has to be played with a 4-man rotation? Or a 5-man rotation? Or that starters have to go a certain number of innings for it to be "real" or "watchable" or "enjoyable" baseball? Where is that written?

Do you like seeing the Red Sox win baseball games? If the path they choose to win includes starters going 5-6 innings, why would you complain about that? Do you like baseball now as a more three-true-outcome game, or are you a guy who whines because there's not enough bunting?


EDIT: And it sounds like your problem isn't so much with the Red Sox and Cora, but rather with the trend throughout all of MLB. If so, why single Cora/Sale out?
 

joe dokes

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I’m sorry but I just don’t buy this whole narrative in baseball that you absolutely must get starters out of the game once they approach 100 pitches. At this rate, we won’t even have starters anymore in baseball, everyone will be having ‘bullpen’ games like Tampa does. Who wants to watch that?
THAT is a fine topic for discussion. Going on and on about Sale and Cora in particular is less than that.
 

JimD

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I’m sorry but I just don’t buy this whole narrative in baseball that you absolutely must get starters out of the game once they approach 100 pitches. At this rate, we won’t even have starters anymore in baseball, everyone will be having ‘bullpen’ games like Tampa does. Who wants to watch that?
Grady, is that you?
 

DanoooME

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I’m definitely a little concerned about Sale’s velocity but I’ll give it another month before I panic. He’s throwing over 2 mph slower on average than last year and can’t get his fastball into the upper 90’s at all, while he routinely did that all of last year, even in cold weather starts. his fastball was so slow yesterday (86-88) that it was registering as changeups on nesn and he only had 9 swing and misses all game.
And yet he's still 5th in all of baseball in that category. Sounds like you need to step away from the ledge.
 

finnVT

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Not trying to pile on, but the other thing to keep in mind for Sale, as has been mentioned, is that he seemed to pretty clearly wear down last season. His ERA spiked and K/BB was way down starting in August, and including the playoffs. And that's been his trend throughout his career. Here are his career ERA by month:

Apr 2.74
May 2.57
Jun 2.66
Jul 2.66
Aug 3.22
Sep/Oct 3.78

As he gets closer to age 30, I would imagine it's more likely that this trend gets more extreme, not less. So if saving him 10-20 pitches/game early in the season is their plan to try to keep him fresher for the stretch run and playoffs, that seems like a pretty reasonable compromise, and certainly worth trying. And if that isn't the solution, what's the plan for trying to fix this? Just hope he stops showing this trend (or don't believe it's real)? Phantom DL stint mid-season (which, incidentally, I'd also be fine with)? Seems like if this works, the potential payoff could be huge, and it hasn't cost them anything yet.
 

Merkle's Boner

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As I mentioned in the game thread, I think it is fair to discuss whether a new system focusing on fewer starter innings (if this proves to be the case) and more bullpen innings is the best way to get us to October. It is still too early and there have been too many other factors to say that this usage will continue, but I do worry that we are minimizing what I consider the strength of the staff and forcing more innings on the pen.
 

redsox11507

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I’m definitely a little concerned about Sale’s velocity but I’ll give it another month before I panic. He’s throwing over 2 mph slower on average than last year and can’t get his fastball into the upper 90’s at all, while he routinely did that all of last year, even in cold weather starts. his fastball was so slow yesterday (86-88) that it was registering as changeups on nesn and he only had 9 swing and misses all game.
“This was the most miserable I’ve ever been on a baseball field by far. Not even close,” said Sale, who sprinted to the tunnel behind the dugout every inning for applications of heat packs and Red Hot balm on his arm. “As unimpressive as it might have been, I’m just trying to throw strikes. I didn’t care how hard it was going or what pitch it was. I wanted to get it over the plate, because I knew how hard to hit it was . . . You’ve just got to flip it in there. That’s it.
This is a quote from Speier's article today. http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2018/04/15/chris-sale-felt-miserable-but-was-still-effective/TSKV1Qpmnsii6k17ONBxgK/story.html?et_rid=714312199&s_campaign=108stitches:newsletter
 

Al Zarilla

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Could you stop with this nonsense please? You started it in the game thread and have continued with it even after given proof to the contrary. Before his last start, Price had gone seven innings twice and the rotation has been averaging 6 innings a start. Cora stated that Sale could have gone 7 plus innings against the Yankees but after the long bottom of the sixth, he took Sale out.
If Sale would have gotten injured pitching with a 14 to 1 lead, you would be calling WEEI asking why is Sale pitching with a 13 run lead?
Regarding yesterday's game in particular, it was 30 degrees out. Sale himself said it was the worst conditions he ever pitched in. The Red Sox were lucky to get 5 innings from Chris Sale. If Sale is injured pitching the 6th, you would be singing a different complaint.
Sounds like we have our first BABIP sacrifice candidate, hopefully not needed for a while, but in the bank nevertheless.
 

Sale4CY

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Not trying to pile on, but the other thing to keep in mind for Sale, as has been mentioned, is that he seemed to pretty clearly wear down last season. His ERA spiked and K/BB was way down starting in August, and including the playoffs. And that's been his trend throughout his career. Here are his career ERA by month:

Apr 2.74
May 2.57
Jun 2.66
Jul 2.66
Aug 3.22
Sep/Oct 3.78

As he gets closer to age 30, I would imagine it's more likely that this trend gets more extreme, not less. So if saving him 10-20 pitches/game early in the season is their plan to try to keep him fresher for the stretch run and playoffs, that seems like a pretty reasonable compromise, and certainly worth trying. And if that isn't the solution, what's the plan for trying to fix this? Just hope he stops showing this trend (or don't believe it's real)? Phantom DL stint mid-season (which, incidentally, I'd also be fine with)? Seems like if this works, the potential payoff could be huge, and it hasn't cost them anything yet.
Sale’s peripheral stats are still really good in August and September so I’m not sure we should make much of it to be honest. People act like he was absolutely horrible post ASB, when in fact 7 of his 10 scoreless outings came after it. And people forget that Sale’s ERA prior to his last start against Toronto (where he got touched up for 5 runs and 4 homers) was 2.75, exactly what it was at the all star break. The second half demise of Chris Sale last year, and throughout his career, is greatly exaggerated.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Sale’s peripheral stats are still really good in August and September so I’m not sure we should make much of it to be honest. People act like he was absolutely horrible post ASB, when in fact 7 of his 10 scoreless outings came after it. And people forget that Sale’s ERA prior to his last start against Toronto (where he got touched up for 5 runs and 4 homers) was 2.75, exactly what it was at the all star break. The second half demise of Chris Sale last year, and throughout his career, is greatly exaggerated.
And if he wasn't worn down, you'd think Sale would know that, right? That he'd say all was well and he wanted the same heavy workload that he took on last year (he exceeded 100 pitches in his first 9 starts and in 26 of 32 total starts). Yet he has seemed perfectly fine going along with the plan of a slow ramp up and a generally lighter load since spring training. Maybe that means something.
 

finnVT

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Sale’s peripheral stats are still really good in August and September so I’m not sure we should make much of it to be honest. People act like he was absolutely horrible post ASB, when in fact 7 of his 10 scoreless outings came after it. And people forget that Sale’s ERA prior to his last start against Toronto (where he got touched up for 5 runs and 4 homers) was 2.75, exactly what it was at the all star break. The second half demise of Chris Sale last year, and throughout his career, is greatly exaggerated.
I'm not sure I agree with that. His K rate has stayed pretty good, but hits and walks have been way up (his Sep/Oct WHIP is almost 0.2 higher than earlier months. His HR/9 jumps from 0.08 in Apr-Jul to 0.14 in Aug-Oct (edit: those are hr/ip; hr/9 jumps from .73->1.28). They're not awful numbers, but the Chris Sale we're used to is definitely the Apr-Jul version, not the Aug-Oct one.
 
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effectivelywild

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Sale’s peripheral stats are still really good in August and September so I’m not sure we should make much of it to be honest. People act like he was absolutely horrible post ASB, when in fact 7 of his 10 scoreless outings came after it. And people forget that Sale’s ERA prior to his last start against Toronto (where he got touched up for 5 runs and 4 homers) was 2.75, exactly what it was at the all star break. The second half demise of Chris Sale last year, and throughout his career, is greatly exaggerated.
I think the problem with you focusing on Sale is that he has a narrative about how he gets tired late in the season. As someone who lived in Chicago while he was there, it started around 2015, when he had noticeably worse results as the season progressed, especially in September (though, oddly enough, his ERA was really the only stat that looked noticeably worse, not his FIP stats). That lead to him trying to throw less hard in 2016 to "save some bullets" only for him to be less effective. Then he got traded to the Sox and went back to his old approach---and it worked! Only for him to again, be less effective in September and October. So while his struggles may be overstated (although breaking things down to pre-ASB and post-ASB is a little disingenuous, because I think people are specifically concerned about September and October), its long been a part of his story: "How do you keep Sale fresh for the playoffs?" For the past 3 years, its something that people have discussed and last season there was a certain amount of handwringing about him going deep in so many starts and in his pitch counts and, as the narrative would have it, he struggled down the stretch and in the playoffs. So I think now the goal is to try to give him an extra inning off here or there, especially when its a. early in the season b. the team is up big or c. the weather is horrible. Its worth a shot for a team with playoff aspirations and who has thus far not suffered from abbreviating his outings.
 

Boggs26

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I didn't see the math done out anywhere in the thread, but it was noted that the league average so far is 5.3ip/start. According to @Sale4CY's list showing how Cora isn't letting people pitch, the Sox are averaging 5.5ip/start...so Cora has actually let guys pitch more than the average (and that includes Price's random 1 inning start, without which the Sox would be at 5.8).
 

BaseballJones

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Sale last year:
- Apr-July: 21 g, 148.1 ip, 2.37 era, .541 ops, 0.88 whip, 12.8 k/9, 2 scoreless outings
- Aug-Sep: 11 g, 66.0 ip, 4.09 era, .733 ops, 1.19 whip, 13.2 k/9, 4 scoreless outings

From April through July, Sale was just incredibly consistently good. But from August through September, he was either great or pretty bad.

11 games
Great:
- at TB: 8.0 ip, 2 h, 0 r, 0 er, 1 bb, 13 k
- at NYY: 7.0 ip, 4 h, 1 r, 1 er, 2 bb, 12 k
- at Tor: 7.0 ip, 3 h, 0 r, 0 er, 0 bb, 11 k
- vs TB: 6.0 ip, 6 h, 0 r, 0 er, 1 bb, 8 k
- at Bal: 8.0 ip, 4 h, 0 r, 0 er, 0 bb, 13 k
TOT: 36.0 ip, 19 h, 1 r, 1 er, 4 bb, 57 k, 0.25 era, 0.64 whip, 14.3 k/9

Awful:
- vs Cle: 5.0 ip, 8 h, 7 r, 7 er, 1 bb, 5 k
- vs NYY: 7.0 ip, 7 h, 4 r, 4 er, 1 bb, 9 k
- at Cle: 3.0 ip, 7 h, 7 r, 6 er, 3 bb, 3 k
- at NYY: 4.1 ip, 7 h, 3 r, 3 er, 2 bb, 6 k
- at TB: 5.2 ip, 6 h, 4 r, 4 er, 3 bb, 9 k
- vs Tor: 5.0 ip, 8 h, 5 r, 5 er, 2 bb, 8 k
TOT: 30.0 ip, 43 h, 30 r, 29 er, 12 bb, 40 k, 8.70 era, 1.83 whip, 12.0 k/9
 

Saints Rest

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
I didn't see the math done out anywhere in the thread, but it was noted that the league average so far is 5.3ip/start. According to @Sale4CY's list showing how Cora isn't letting people pitch, the Sox are averaging 5.5ip/start...so Cora has actually let guys pitch more than the average (and that includes Price's random 1 inning start, without which the Sox would be at 5.8).
The problem with that math is that most teams have had a couple of clunker starts by now, games where SP's would be pulled early due to ineffectiveness, thereby reducing the avg IP per start. In the Sox's case, only Price's tingling start has fallen into that category.

In My Lifetime in post #127 touches on this. The way to compare would be to compare the average IP per start when a SP is doing well. That would tell a bit more about whether Cora is showing an abnormally quick hook.

That said, I do think that the combo of the weather and the organization's new philosophy of conserving innings and pitches now are more to do with the hooks than Cora's own predilections.
 

NoXInNixon

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 24, 2008
5,405
I didn't see the math done out anywhere in the thread, but it was noted that the league average so far is 5.3ip/start. According to @Sale4CY's list showing how Cora isn't letting people pitch, the Sox are averaging 5.5ip/start...so Cora has actually let guys pitch more than the average (and that includes Price's random 1 inning start, without which the Sox would be at 5.8).
What's the league average when you take out all the starts which were ended early due to suckage? Probably pretty close to 5.8. Cora might just be the fortunate beneficiary of starts that give him the chance to leave his starters in.
 

Sale4CY

New Member
Apr 6, 2018
101
Sale last year:
- Apr-July: 21 g, 148.1 ip, 2.37 era, .541 ops, 0.88 whip, 12.8 k/9, 2 scoreless outings
- Aug-Sep: 11 g, 66.0 ip, 4.09 era, .733 ops, 1.19 whip, 13.2 k/9, 4 scoreless outings

From April through July, Sale was just incredibly consistently good. But from August through September, he was either great or pretty bad.

11 games
Great:
- at TB: 8.0 ip, 2 h, 0 r, 0 er, 1 bb, 13 k
- at NYY: 7.0 ip, 4 h, 1 r, 1 er, 2 bb, 12 k
- at Tor: 7.0 ip, 3 h, 0 r, 0 er, 0 bb, 11 k
- vs TB: 6.0 ip, 6 h, 0 r, 0 er, 1 bb, 8 k
- at Bal: 8.0 ip, 4 h, 0 r, 0 er, 0 bb, 13 k
TOT: 36.0 ip, 19 h, 1 r, 1 er, 4 bb, 57 k, 0.25 era, 0.64 whip, 14.3 k/9

Awful:
- vs Cle: 5.0 ip, 8 h, 7 r, 7 er, 1 bb, 5 k
- vs NYY: 7.0 ip, 7 h, 4 r, 4 er, 1 bb, 9 k
- at Cle: 3.0 ip, 7 h, 7 r, 6 er, 3 bb, 3 k
- at NYY: 4.1 ip, 7 h, 3 r, 3 er, 2 bb, 6 k
- at TB: 5.2 ip, 6 h, 4 r, 4 er, 3 bb, 9 k
- vs Tor: 5.0 ip, 8 h, 5 r, 5 er, 2 bb, 8 k
TOT: 30.0 ip, 43 h, 30 r, 29 er, 12 bb, 40 k, 8.70 era, 1.83 whip, 12.0 k/9
What are those numbers when you remove the two Cleveland starts though? Let’s face it they have always had Chris’ number. When Sale started the season 9-0 with a 1.58 era in 2016, guess who the first team was to hand Sale a loss? The Indians roughed him up, and that was early in the year. I’d like to throw those two out since it doesn’t seem to matter how well Sale is pitching, they just crush him. Sale had a pretty long scoreless streak going last year too before his first start against them. It’s like Price against the Yankees, they just own him.
 

Dahabenzapple2

Mr. McGuire / Axl's Counter
SoSH Member
Jun 20, 2011
8,952
Wayne, NJ
I’m sorry but I just don’t buy this whole narrative in baseball that you absolutely must get starters out of the game once they approach 100 pitches. At this rate, we won’t even have starters anymore in baseball, everyone will be having ‘bullpen’ games like Tampa does. Who wants to watch that?
Please post better - I've won my share of Beating a Dead Horse awards but for someone with 20 something posts.....
 

Jerry’s Curl

New Member
Feb 6, 2018
2,518
Florida
I’m definitely a little concerned about Sale’s velocity but I’ll give it another month before I panic. He’s throwing over 2 mph slower on average than last year and can’t get his fastball into the upper 90’s at all, while he routinely did that all of last year, even in cold weather starts. his fastball was so slow yesterday (86-88) that it was registering as changeups on nesn and he only had 9 swing and misses all game.
As long as the Sox keep winning and Sale gives them quality starts, I could care less.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
25,422
What are those numbers when you remove the two Cleveland starts though? Let’s face it they have always had Chris’ number. When Sale started the season 9-0 with a 1.58 era in 2016, guess who the first team was to hand Sale a loss? The Indians roughed him up, and that was early in the year. I’d like to throw those two out since it doesn’t seem to matter how well Sale is pitching, they just crush him. Sale had a pretty long scoreless streak going last year too before his first start against them. It’s like Price against the Yankees, they just own him.
I don't know. Figure them out.

If we remove his bad starts, Sale was awesome in August-September.

And it's not really a good thing that Sale is bad against Cleveland, since, you know, they're a very possible playoff opponent.
 
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