He's worse at things except total wins over the last four years, of course.(38 to 29) There he's much better. But it seems you don't have interest in wins but in process. Trust the process.
This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots
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Teams have to spend close to the cap. There's an 89% floor over four years for individual teams, and the league as a whole has to spend 95% over the same span. All teams are on pretty equal footing.
They have a ton of space with which to work this offseason, however. They can realistically get up to around 90-100 million in free space if they make a few logical moves.
If you use a 5th round pick on a punter, you damn well better get one of the best punters in the NFL. Jake Bailey was one of the best punters in the NFL, in one season, 2020. He was #1 that season in Net Yards/Punt. His other three seasons in New England, he was 18th, 29th and 35th. Then, the Pats had to go and use a 6th rounder on another punter.
That, to me, given the position and the draft spot, is a bust. Like kickers, the best punters in the NFL today (with the exception of Anger) is littered with guys who were undrafted. Anger was drafted in the 3rd round by Jax in 2012. Played 4 seasons there, then to Tampa, then somewhere else, then to Dallas where he led the NFL this season. But I wouldn't say that picked worked out for the Jaguars.
I have liked Vrabel’s in game coaching moves. The jump offsides to stop the clock/save a timeout he did a few years ago. The time wasting against the Pats before punting in the playoff game. His decision to go for 2 against Miami this season down by 8 helped them win the game by a point in regulation. He is thinking while standing on the sidelines. Probably because he isn’t staring at a playsheet for 3 hours.
I think Vrabel is a very good coach. Not better than BB, but very good. He'd be a solid hire. It's amazing how this is breaking for the Krafts. Vrabel becomes available for no compensation, BB indicates some flexibility on personnel as part of a return. The negotiating position of the Krafts just improved considerably. They can now credibly tell BB how they want to reorganize personnel and give him a choice to take it or leave it. If he leaves it, they have a very good option waiting in the wings.
I can see a situation where Mayo stays on a Vrabel staff. He's never been an official coordinator. He'll explore his options but could ultimately return. He could be DC/Asst. HC, get another pay raise, etc. The Pats will need him because Steve likely leaves with Bill.
What they do on offense is the big question. Josh would be...OK. Arthur Smith? Eh. I still think they'd need some fresh (non-BB, non-Tenn) ideas, faces, etc. on that side.
I can see a situation where Mayo stays on a Vrabel staff. He's never been an official coordinator. He'll explore his options but could ultimately return. He could be DC/Asst. HC, get another pay raise, etc. The Pats will need him because Steve likely leaves with Bill.
What they do on offense is the big question. Josh would be...OK. Arthur Smith? Eh. I still think they'd need some fresh (non-BB, non-Tenn) ideas, faces, etc. on that side.
You think Vrabel is going to wait? There are already other teams with actual job openings.
I think the Chargers should interview him, and that's a job he should seriously consider. The ideal spot for him is one where they have their key pieces on offense already, and they need a touch-up on D and a moitivator HC. Maybe Arthur Smith would join him at his next stop, but maybe not.
Not a chance Vrabel has to wait for another job…if he wants it, he’s the next coach in New England.
Bengals would be a good spot for Vrabel since offense is pretty solid and he’s an Ohio guy. (Other side though)
I mean they have fire ZT first but he’s had his coaching gaffes, no?
I mean they have fire ZT first but he’s had his coaching gaffes, no?
At least if they bring in Arthur Smith as OC, we won't have to worry about him freezing out our playmakers like he did in Atlanta.
He doesn’t have to but maybe he wants to
If he wants one of 2 OH jobs in a few years or NEP, (without pushing out BB) maybe he waits? He’d be good on tv I think too.
Or if he even wants to coach New England. As I said, there are other teams with actual openings.
Mike Brown isn’t firing Taylor. Not only will Vrabel be much more expensive, and Brown is notoriously cheap, but Brown is just about the most passive owner when it comes to canning guys and firing Taylor after they lost Burrow to injury midseason/battled to the end of the season would be a choice anyways.
These guys almost never do this. If you're a candidate for HC positions and are offered one, you take it. He could go be a DC and fail for 1000 reasons, then he has a hard time getting interviews. No way he takes that option voluntarily. He either takes a HC job now or sits out for a year and does the media thing.
I'm not these guys, but I can't imagine not taking a year off to regroup and consider options. Doesn't he have a couple of years left on his contract? He could do TV to stay in contact; and he's still pretty young.
Vrabel has a red jacket. There isn’t a single person with a red jacket who would turn down the HC position if Kraft offered it.
Admittedly, good point
Are the Blackburns next in line? They may have a different viewpoint. MB is 88 after all.
I don't see any big edge in Vrabel over BB in terms of what he brings to the coaching job--he certainly isn't the offensive guru that one might hope for after a few seasons of anemic scoring. The only way I'd want to see him here is if he brings 25 year old Derrick Henry with him. If we're going to break from BB, get something different, not just younger.
Sure, but he is the only viable candidate with a Red Jacket. And I am sure other teams will be interested in having him.
Can't the whole kicker debate be kind of explained by just thinking about VORP? Or VORK?
This is a little old but it shows that the best kicker (Tucker) was about 5 made kicks over expectation. That's 15 points, obviously high leverage ones so pretty valuable. But, Tucker is probably the best kicker ever. Most others are in the middle and range from like, 7 points to -7 points above or below expectation in a year. Furthermore, lots of the guys in the middle are sometimes towards the top or sometimes towards the bottom year-to-year. As the second chart in the article shows, over a larger sample size almost everyone ranges from about -2% to +2% vs. expectation which is like 3-4 points a year. Finally, you can get a guy off the street and he has a decent shot to be average.
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-assessing-true-value-nfl-kickers
So, if you spend a lot of resources on a kicker, he really needs to be average or better to be worth it. There is just not that much of a reward unless you can find the GOAT, and if he's bad you can just dump them for someone else. There is just less variance in ability among kickers and replacement level ones are not that bad. Folk was a replacement kicker himself, signed mid-season from the street, for the Pats and was nails until he stopped being able to boot kickoffs. You would think this would have been a lesson for the team.
The likelihood of finding a useful player off the street or undrafted at any other position is much lower.
This is a little old but it shows that the best kicker (Tucker) was about 5 made kicks over expectation. That's 15 points, obviously high leverage ones so pretty valuable. But, Tucker is probably the best kicker ever. Most others are in the middle and range from like, 7 points to -7 points above or below expectation in a year. Furthermore, lots of the guys in the middle are sometimes towards the top or sometimes towards the bottom year-to-year. As the second chart in the article shows, over a larger sample size almost everyone ranges from about -2% to +2% vs. expectation which is like 3-4 points a year. Finally, you can get a guy off the street and he has a decent shot to be average.
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-assessing-true-value-nfl-kickers
So, if you spend a lot of resources on a kicker, he really needs to be average or better to be worth it. There is just not that much of a reward unless you can find the GOAT, and if he's bad you can just dump them for someone else. There is just less variance in ability among kickers and replacement level ones are not that bad. Folk was a replacement kicker himself, signed mid-season from the street, for the Pats and was nails until he stopped being able to boot kickoffs. You would think this would have been a lesson for the team.
The likelihood of finding a useful player off the street or undrafted at any other position is much lower.
I tend to agree with the first part, but where do you get your absolute certainty on the second?
If Bill goes, they have no GM. Is Kraft going to hire Vrabel, or any HC without a GM in place? He might, but even if he does, there is just so much riding on what happens next that I can't imagine Kraft has settled on any coaching replacement before even deciding once and for all that it's over.
And that doesn't even take into account the politics involved. If Kraft hires Vrabel, it seems likely Mayo is pissed and gone, and sends a really bad message about Kraft's loyalty for sticking around. There's so many different factors and so many moving parts that I just have to dismiss every "it's his job if he wants it" type post I see, at least until someone makes a convincing case that I should do otherwise.
Kraft, as we know, understands optics. If there was some sort of nudge-nudge agreement with Mayo that convince him not to interview for jobs the last time around, only to see Kraft turn around and hire Vrabel, the bad messaging might not only be about loyalty.
If there is one consistent personality trait among football head coaches it’s that their egos are roughly the size of Alaska.
These dudes are workaholic monsters who think the sun rises and sets over their unquestionable football knowledge.
Being a HC, and all the trapping of the role, is who they are. If they can quickly move from one position to another almost all of them are going to do it.
It just makes me think of the reported Belichick/Dimitrov conversation where Bill asked "Are you sure?" when it came to drafting Julio Jones.
Just getting back to this, it almost literally never makes financial sense to draft a punter because if you have a really good rookie punter like Bailey was and his escalator kicks in then you aren't saving any $$ and the track record of punters being consistent one year to the next is up there with non-ace relief pitchers. For every Morestead there are a dozen punters that will change teams every couple of years. That is the biggest issue I have with drafting K/P is that from an opportunity cost perspective it is insanely bad value. If you miraculously hit on the next Justin Tucker in the draft your surplus value is what 3-4M of value over a FA replacement vs. if you find the next Puka Nacua or Amon Ra St. Brown, your surplus value is 15+M easily. I can somewhat understand the case for a SB contender to use picks on K/P because they are looking for that 10% edge over FA pickups but for a team like NE that had a pop-gun offense going into the draft it was simply incredulous.
FA is where you should be finding your K/P/ST, the opportunity cost there is close to zero because you are just paying market rate. Draft picks should be treated like gold because they are of limited quantity and are by far the easiest way to create surplus value. Even if you hit in FA the chances are very good that player will want to restructure after 2-3yrs whereas a 4-5th rd draft pick is going to be playing for peanuts for a good 3-4+ seasons.
They also have zero job security and I think this messes with them mentally. They all grab the bag when they can. The exception are the guys that have made their money and accomplished something (Cowher, Johnson, there are others). They are more likely to be satisfied with a media role. But they are rare.
Curran was on WEEI this morning and seemed to confirm something I speculated on before: the "grand plan" had been for BB to use the salary cap room to make one more run in 2024 before turning the keys over to Mayo for 2025. Curran said no one at Foxborough anticipated 4 wins in 2023, though, so that's prompted a whole reexamining of what's the best path forward.
The only problem with this is that if BB turns the team around and wins, say, 10 games in 2024, does anyone believe he's going to just retire and leave Shula's record on the table?
And FTR, if he does that, would anyone (the fans, Kraft, etc) want him to do so?
I always questioned whether the Shula thing was a big deal to BB, given it's likely to be eclipsed in not too long. He likes coaching, especially with his sons on the staff
To add to that, BB started the season with 298 wins. He would need 31 wins by the end of 2024 to beat Shula's record. Assuming he was going to win 15 and 16 games after the MP/JJ experiment is... generous.
This is very hard to follow. Belichick is 14 behind. What exactly are you saying?
That the process, at least in terms of evaluating offensive talent, hasn’t been very effective for the last few years. Which is a fair and accurate criticism, without going back as far as you did, and diminishing his past results. I’m also hopeful that if he does stay, changes can be made to that process. From both existing, and possibly some new personnel.
If there's one thing I don't question with BB, it's his knowledge and love for the history of the game.
He's currently 14 behind Shula. If he gets say, 10 next year, and then comes back with another 10 the following year, he'll be at 353 with the record (assuming no playoff wins).
Reid is currently 53 wins behind Belichick, so assuming 10 per year from BB to get the record, Reid would need another 74 to break the record. He's going to turn 66 in March. I'm not sure Reid has that kind of time.
It's not the regular season win total, it's the total wins total (regular season and playoffs) that folks are talking about.
While an internal forecast of four wins is unrealistic, posters here recognized various roster shortcomings before FA and the draft, several of which went unaddressed including OT/WR. Picking up scraps from other teams and investing late round picks was a disastrous approach. I'm concerned BB and company were caught off guard by how badly this team wound up being when it was easily recognized by others outside the organization. Whatever the root cause may be (BB wanting to coach guys he likes, the game passing him by, etc.) there is some level of disconnect within player evaluation, particularly on offense, that needs to be rectified ASAP.
I don't know why people are so sure the job is Vrabel's. Maybe it is, but is there anything to back this up other than he's a former player under Bill?
Man, if they get rid of BB I really hope they go through an actual process to try to identify the best person for the job. Jumping right to the next coach without vetting other candidates (or hiring a GM even, especially since Vrabel has clashed with the last two Titans GMs) is a mistake IMO.
Man, if they get rid of BB I really hope they go through an actual process to try to identify the best person for the job. Jumping right to the next coach without vetting other candidates (or hiring a GM even, especially since Vrabel has clashed with the last two Titans GMs) is a mistake IMO.
Agreed. I’m not trying to completely discount previous successes. Trying to point out that the perceived skill involved in those may be overblown.
Great post
I don't understand the Atlanta opening at all. That team stinks and is probably no better than the Pats after the coming draft. Why would BB want to go there? I guess the division is easier, but what is the point when you don't have a real shot of advancing in the playoffs, even if you go 9-8 and make it? They don't have a QB and they are in a worse position at upgrading that spot than the Pats are.
View: https://twitter.com/marinonfl/status/1744785587398164583?s=46&t=IVL2VrlFgLlpc3mjGGto8Q
Tapped in with a source just now following Mike Vrabel’s firing in Tennessee.
The expectation is that he will be the lead candidate for the New England job, operating under the assumption that the job is open. Bill Belichick will not be returning to coach the Patriots.
I’m also told that the Atlanta Falcons are planning a heavy pursuit for Belichick. That is who they want — their lead target at this point.
Initial interest was surface level. Atlanta had early conversations about his fit with the team. Those conversations were positive for Belichick.
Tapped in with a source just now following Mike Vrabel’s firing in Tennessee.
The expectation is that he will be the lead candidate for the New England job, operating under the assumption that the job is open. Bill Belichick will not be returning to coach the Patriots.
I’m also told that the Atlanta Falcons are planning a heavy pursuit for Belichick. That is who they want — their lead target at this point.
Initial interest was surface level. Atlanta had early conversations about his fit with the team. Those conversations were positive for Belichick.
Good OL, recent highly drafted skill guys on offense, defense is OK. Drop in Cousins or Wilson at QB and Bill cleans up the defense and they might win a bunch of games.
Not sure I agree with this. Atlanta has the 8th pick in the upcoming draft. Realistically, that team is really, really close to being a contender given some of the pieces they have on both sides of the ball. They need a QB first and foremost, but they have the draft spot to become a potential trade partner to move up. Besides that, I think there really only a legit edge rusher and maybe a corner away from being an excellent defense. They also have about 40mil in cap space next year, and play in a god awful division that doesn't appear to be getting any better.
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