That's a good thing at least for now. We can revisit the starting thing next season.soxhop411 said:
The question to me is whether it's Brian Johnson or Wright. I'd rather see Johnson.
It looks like we've got a 40 man spot available.
Time to move Joe Kelly to the pen?
- Thread starter ponchsox
- Start date
The question to me is whether it's Brian Johnson or Wright. I'd rather see Johnson.
It looks like we've got a 40 man spot available.
Looked to me like he was kind of clueless as to where the ball was going to end up yesterday. People who pay more attention should chime in.
I guess certain pitches have so much movement that he can't control them and batters ignore them. Other pitches appear to be right down the pike.
What's the opposite of a donut hole? Everything missing donut meat?
I guess certain pitches have so much movement that he can't control them and batters ignore them. Other pitches appear to be right down the pike.
What's the opposite of a donut hole? Everything missing donut meat?
Harry Hooper said:
Yeah, you're right, but they could easily send Kelly to the 'pen and DL any damn person they please instead of releasing Craig Breslow.
I still want Johnson. I wanna see the new guy. I don't care if there's any real advantage there, I wanna see the new guy.
Joe Shlabotnick said:
But see, this is my issue.... Kelly's fastball isn't overpowering. It could be overpowering if he could locate it better. And if he could locate it better.... then he's a good starter anyway and you're not even thinking about using him out of the bullpen.
If you're yanking him from the rotation (not that I endorse it), and he's not going to be an outstanding reliever, send him down to start.
This is interesting point, as is this.
Is this year possibly just a fluke? Or caused by pitching in the AL? Or caused by the Hanley/Pablo defensive left side?
I'm concerned that recency bias and a desire to save a season that it seems may already be over is going to lead to a bad decision on Kelly. I am as frustrated as anyone by his inconsistency, but it feels like he's had too many good performances as a starter to relegate him to the pen at this point.
Well, Kelly has 52 IP as a reliever, so he actually only has 349 IP as a starter. Which is a typo, so fine. But:nattysez said:
-Is a 4.20 FIP very good? That would be 71st of 103 qualified SP this year -- a back-end innings eater.
-His K rate as a starter is exceptionally low-15.3% which would rank 89th among qualified SP. That doesn't seem to bode well for him taking a leap forward.
I'm fine calling him a big league starter, but I don't see much evidence he is or will be a particularly good one.
Toe Nash said:
The fact that there are only 103 qualified starters when there are 150 starting pitcher jobs in the majors should tell you something. If your worst starter is the 71st best starter in the majors, you're in pretty good shape and getting to that point now is mostly a matter of replacing Masterson's games with Eduardo Rodriguez' games and figuring out WTF is up with Rick Porcello. Now you wanna add an ace and move Kelly to the pen on the theory that he'll be a weapon out there, I'm on board with that, but to pretend he doesn't have value as a starter is silly.
Well, he's never actually made more than 17 starts in a season, so we're not really sure yet he can be the 71st-best starter. He's also trending downward -- 4.84 ERA and a 4.28 FIP in his last 31 starts. But I hear you, he's basically fine if you're just counting on him to be a 4th-5th starter.
I think the point is that many are or were projecting him as better than a back-end starter based on his tantalizing stuff, but there's not a lot of evidence he will ever be that guy. Which is fine if you have 3-4 better guys, like you said.
I think the point is that many are or were projecting him as better than a back-end starter based on his tantalizing stuff, but there's not a lot of evidence he will ever be that guy. Which is fine if you have 3-4 better guys, like you said.
looks like Kelly is out of the rotation--that seems like the right move but Masterson may be his replacement. that is not so exciting. unless something has changed for Masterson (e.g. his velocity is up--and haven't heard it is), this is puzzling
Sean McAdam @Sean_McAdam 1m1 minute ago
Fact that Masterson not listed as reliever on lineup card suggests that he will take Kelly's spot in rotation
Sean McAdam @Sean_McAdam 1m1 minute ago
Fact that Masterson not listed as reliever on lineup card suggests that he will take Kelly's spot in rotation
I wouldn't say that Masterson will take Kelly's spot in rotation quite yet. Aro is just a placefiller in the bullpen until Kelly's spot comes up next. I wouldn't be surprised if Aro gets sent down on the day Kelly starts and that Brian Johnson(provided he's healthy after last night's collision) gets called up. Masterson then stays in the bullpen.
I hope that's right--though I think Johnson isn't lined up to pitch on day Kelly would have been slated for next start....RedOctober3829 said:
I hope you're right, but not listing Masterson as an available reliever today implies they're treating him like a starter, at least today. If the plan was to bring up Johnson, why wouldn't they continue to have Masterson listed in the pen like he's been since returning?RedOctober3829 said:
Rob Bradford @bradfo 22s23 seconds ago
Joe Kelly headed to Triple A Pawtucket. Aro takes place on roster. Masterson to get start. Pedroia to DL
Joe Kelly headed to Triple A Pawtucket. Aro takes place on roster. Masterson to get start. Pedroia to DL
TomRicardo said:
In order to make Kelly's start on Sunday, Johnson would have to pitch on short rest. When have the Sox ever let a young pitcher do that?
Ben Buchanan suggests (hopes) Masterson gets just the one start, with Johnson then slotting into the rotation in Boston once he can be lined up for Kelly's slot (or I assume Johnson could also simply pitch in his normal turn in Boston with everyone else getting an extra day's rest). I sincerely hope this is correct.
In my post, I meant when Kelly's spot comes up again after Sunday. Sorry, should have clarified.Red(s)HawksFan said:
why? They want Kelly to be a starter. Irregular appearances out of the pen are unlikely to get him to that goal, so take a regular turn in AAA.Plympton91 said:
Ya know, when we traded Lackey, I thought we'd bring back some minor leaguers instead of proven major league veterans. It took a while, but looks like I was right after all. 
Or, you know, they could just move him to the pen for a while then send him down to stretch out to be a starter.Harry Hooper said:
Or they could just revisit the starter thing next season.
Mostly the problem is Masterson in the rotation and that is, we hope, temporary.
Rasputin said:
I ultimately don't get it either. Kelly isn't some spring chicken prospect here, so what are we realistically projecting him to accomplish out of an AAA stint?
I know it's SSS and all, but he has had some success coming out of the MLB pen. Going back to try and rebuild off that, and then maybe reevaluating the whole starting thing latter, seems the better (and less...stubborn i guess?) play imo.
Masterson returns to the rotation? Just in case it's 10 days before they can bring up Kelly again, correct?
Masterson is worse than Kelly.
Masterson is worse than Kelly.
I'm guessing everyone knows that Masterson is pretty much cooked, but his (a little far away) track record 0f success and $10M contract is giving him one more shot before it's Johnson or Wright. Maybe there was some gentleman's agreement that the first opening there was, he would get another shot to prove he can stick.
Kelly kind of is a spring chicken prospect. He didn't become a pitcher until college, and he was rushed through the minors. Compared to most starting pitchers his age, he's very inexperienced.MikeM said:
As to why you keep him, he can throw 99 mph with enormous movement on his pitches, and sustain that velocity for 8 innings. You can count the number of pitchers with that kind of ability on the fingers of one foot.
Well, he hasn't thrown a lot of innings so maybe he can discover some command without the pressure of getting guys out.
Wonder what it does to his psyche though. At leasr he has Craig with whom he can commiserate.
To the bolded, I'd like to see him dominate. He's never done it at any level despite overpowering stuff. He throws in the high 90's but even in A ball failed to strikeout a batter an inning. Since then, he's never reached a rate of 8 K/9 in the minors or majors. If he can't increase his strikeouts, it'd be good to see him decrease his walks. The last two seasons he's walked almost 4 batters per 9 innings.MikeM said:
That's what I'd like to see him accomplish at AAA.
To this I would add: they might also be building his trade value.NDame616 said:
He's much more palatable as a trade piece if he can be a competent 5th starter for a team in the race. A team like the Dodgers or the Rangers probably wants someone who can spot start in addition to pitching in long relief, so it makes some sense to give Masterson at least one more audition.
jasail said:
Yeah. Throwing 98 is great, but if Kelly could throw 92-94 with better location, that might be a lot more valuable. I mean, that's generally the range Kershaw/Scherzer/Greinke/Sale/Kluber/other elite pitchers work in. I don't know exactly how pitchers figure out how to make that tradeoff - obviously it's not a trivial thing to do - but I'm not sure Kelly is going to make it as a starter unless he can improve just a little in that area.
After Willis took over, Kelly started throwing 95-96 instead of 98-99. Willis had suggested that he'd gain more control that way, and for a few games it looked like it might have worked, since those were some of his best games of the season (or at least four out of five were). His latest games, he's still been throwing in the mid- rather than the upper 90s and he hasn't been getting the same results.alwyn96 said:
In other words, he's tried that.
iayork said:
Well, unless he can find some way to locate his pitches more consistently, I'm not sure he can really cut it as much more than a long man-5th starter or a bullpen arm, no matter how hard he throws. It can take a while to figure out command. Some guys never do.
He's still relatively young.alwyn96 said:
As I think I've said before, it astonishes me that anyone can hit his pitches. It wouldn't surprise me if his outcomes were all outs and walks, but he gets hit a lot too. I know ML batters can hit any fastball, but just watching Kelly pitch, the speed and the movement he has, I can't understand how they do it.
iayork said:
I guess he's still sort of young, in that he's under 30. Cliff Lee finally put it together at 29. I don't really get how Kelly's so hittable either. Maybe he doesn't hide the ball well or something. I have no idea.
He's thrown about as many or more pro innings as some of the first couple 27 year olds on my baseballreference search - Nate Karns, Hector Santiago, Kyle Gibson, Mike Bolsinger, Adam Warren, a few less than Brett Anderson and Jeff Locke, and way less than Mike Leake, Chris Tillman and Mat Latos. <Note - not a scientific sample>. But guys can put it together at different times. Or can't.
Some guys (like Kelly, apparently) throw 96-97 but it doesn't feel that fast to hitters. So they're effectively pitching at 92 or so. Not bad, but hittable for sure. Other pitchers throw 89 (like Koji in 2013) but it feels so much faster. So they're effectively pitching at 95 or so.
What does this even mean? Do you literally mean that Koji's fastball looks like it's 95? Do you have a reference for that? What exactly does it mean for an 89 mph fastball to "feel faster"? What does it mean for a 97 mph to "not feel that fast"? Again, do you have a reference, or better yet, a physical explanation? I know there's work on release points and their effect on effective velocity, but that doesn't seem to be what you mean.ivanvamp said:
Because it looks like you're saying that some pitchers get hit more than others, and I don't see that as a major insight. I'd like to talk about things that are, in some way, measurable.
iayork said:
I don't know how to "measure" this. But Koji doesn't throw that hard, and yet when he's on, hitters simply have a lot of trouble catching up to his fastball. I think it's because his splitter is so effective that hitters are wary of it, and then Koji's fastball just seems to explode on them. Even though it's much slower, obviously, than Kelly's. Kelly's fastball doesn't seem to generate that many swings and misses (and certainly it gets hit very hard). I heard on the radio today Merloni talk about this idea that his fastball just doesn't seem to hitters to be as fast as it is. Maybe he doesn't hide it. Maybe he's not deceptive. I don't know.
So when professional baseball players can't seem to catch up to an 88 mph fastball, but can hammer a 96 mph fastball, and a former major leaguer says that this phenomenon is real, it should just be dismissed because I really don't exactly know how this works or how to measure it?soxfan121 said:
Ok......
ivanvamp said:
No one said anything about the phenomenon, just that you should probably stop posting about things you don't know enough about to even offer a rudimentary explanation for.