This has been a hot topic across several threads. Thought consolodating into one place would be helpful.
The deadline is still ~5 weeks away, on 3/21. The Bruins are currently 27-16-3, 57 points and currently holding down the 2nd wild card in the East. By points percentage, they're actually ahead of Washington. While they are in the "last" playoff spot right now, they're almost a playoff lock. Dom's model has them at 100% to make the playoffs and hockeyref is at 92.4%. Basically, it'll take a catastrophe to miss the playoffs. That said, there isn't much room to move up in the standings. They are 6 points behind Toronto for 3rd in the Atlantic and Toronto has a game in hand. FLA and TB are 12 and 11 points ahead. The Bruins have a game in hand on FLA and 2 on TB, but catching either seems like a long shot.
Cap wise, they're in pretty good shape. Cap Friendly has them with ~$4.3 million in current space, which should be ~$8.2 million on 3/21. It does fluctuate quite a bit with call ups and send downs. They paper waiver exempt players to the taxi squad/Providence on off days to bank space (like Ahcan and Studnicka currently). In terms of assets, the farm is in a little better shape than it was a year ago. There's two public trade requests- Jake DeBrusk and Zach Senyshyn. Senyshyn has passed through waivers twice so I don't think he's got much value beyond being a throw in, though he is having his most productive AHL season (13-10= 23 in 35 games). DeBrusk has wanted out for a while but it's a tricky trade given his decline production over a long period of time and the qualifying offer he's due in the summer. Also, the Bruins appear to want current help for him as opposed to futures. Tough needle to thread. In terms of other roster players, I think Studnicka, Vaakanainen and Zboril could be in play. There doesn't appear to be room for both Vaak and Zboril on the roster next year given that both will no longer be waivers exempt. Now might be the time to cash in. Zboril had a promising 10 games before tearing his ACL. Vaakanainen has played OK, but I think this could be a sell high situation.
The needs are pretty obvious. Centers, both in the short and long term, and a LHD.
So what to do? There seems to be 3 paths. An all-in approach, a stand pat approach, and a rebuild/transition approach. The all-in approach is largely due to the aging and dwindling core. Chara left, Krejci left, Rask has retired and Bergeron is 36 and in the last year of his contract. The stand pat appearch is just letting this thing play out. Rebuilding is obviously a tear down and trying to build the next core around McAvoy and Pastrnak.
I lean more towards all-in. They are going to be in the playoffs. Their underlying numbers are closer to elite than mediocre. They have the best 5x5 xGF% in the league. Special teams are good. They are 5th in GF/60 on the power play. 11th in GA/60 on the kill. They are still the same stifling defense at 5x5 that they've always been. It's the same story offensively, they don't generate much offense. The goaltending has been adequate, with room for improvement. Maybe now that the Rask thing has passed, Ullmark and Swayman will settle in now that they have more defined roles and aren't looking over their shoulder. Who knows what ther future holds for Bergy. He's been elite this year. I think I take one more run at it. The rebuild will be painful regardless. Maybe they can grab a long term piece or two in the process too (like Chychrun or Hertl).
The deadline is still ~5 weeks away, on 3/21. The Bruins are currently 27-16-3, 57 points and currently holding down the 2nd wild card in the East. By points percentage, they're actually ahead of Washington. While they are in the "last" playoff spot right now, they're almost a playoff lock. Dom's model has them at 100% to make the playoffs and hockeyref is at 92.4%. Basically, it'll take a catastrophe to miss the playoffs. That said, there isn't much room to move up in the standings. They are 6 points behind Toronto for 3rd in the Atlantic and Toronto has a game in hand. FLA and TB are 12 and 11 points ahead. The Bruins have a game in hand on FLA and 2 on TB, but catching either seems like a long shot.
Cap wise, they're in pretty good shape. Cap Friendly has them with ~$4.3 million in current space, which should be ~$8.2 million on 3/21. It does fluctuate quite a bit with call ups and send downs. They paper waiver exempt players to the taxi squad/Providence on off days to bank space (like Ahcan and Studnicka currently). In terms of assets, the farm is in a little better shape than it was a year ago. There's two public trade requests- Jake DeBrusk and Zach Senyshyn. Senyshyn has passed through waivers twice so I don't think he's got much value beyond being a throw in, though he is having his most productive AHL season (13-10= 23 in 35 games). DeBrusk has wanted out for a while but it's a tricky trade given his decline production over a long period of time and the qualifying offer he's due in the summer. Also, the Bruins appear to want current help for him as opposed to futures. Tough needle to thread. In terms of other roster players, I think Studnicka, Vaakanainen and Zboril could be in play. There doesn't appear to be room for both Vaak and Zboril on the roster next year given that both will no longer be waivers exempt. Now might be the time to cash in. Zboril had a promising 10 games before tearing his ACL. Vaakanainen has played OK, but I think this could be a sell high situation.
The needs are pretty obvious. Centers, both in the short and long term, and a LHD.
So what to do? There seems to be 3 paths. An all-in approach, a stand pat approach, and a rebuild/transition approach. The all-in approach is largely due to the aging and dwindling core. Chara left, Krejci left, Rask has retired and Bergeron is 36 and in the last year of his contract. The stand pat appearch is just letting this thing play out. Rebuilding is obviously a tear down and trying to build the next core around McAvoy and Pastrnak.
I lean more towards all-in. They are going to be in the playoffs. Their underlying numbers are closer to elite than mediocre. They have the best 5x5 xGF% in the league. Special teams are good. They are 5th in GF/60 on the power play. 11th in GA/60 on the kill. They are still the same stifling defense at 5x5 that they've always been. It's the same story offensively, they don't generate much offense. The goaltending has been adequate, with room for improvement. Maybe now that the Rask thing has passed, Ullmark and Swayman will settle in now that they have more defined roles and aren't looking over their shoulder. Who knows what ther future holds for Bergy. He's been elite this year. I think I take one more run at it. The rebuild will be painful regardless. Maybe they can grab a long term piece or two in the process too (like Chychrun or Hertl).
