Trade Deadline Approach
- Thread starter tims4wins
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I'd like to see them do both -- cash in on Paxton, Duvall, Hernandez, and other expiring vets while packaging some prospects to get a controllable starter. But whether or not they can do that depends on the market, which I have no insight into, so I voted "stand pat" because I don't think giving up on the season makes sense and I don't think cashing in the farm for a rental makes sense.
Chose mostly stand pat (in line with my comments in the "where we at" thread)....
Make some minor moves:
1. Grab a back-end rotation rental
2. Grab a middle infielder who can play at least average defense and not hit like a backup catcher...even with Story back, they'll want some depth there. He will need some breathers and 2B is still questionable with Arroyo's thumb injury.
Make some minor moves:
1. Grab a back-end rotation rental
2. Grab a middle infielder who can play at least average defense and not hit like a backup catcher...even with Story back, they'll want some depth there. He will need some breathers and 2B is still questionable with Arroyo's thumb injury.
Unless they drop 5 out of the next 6, they can't trade Paxton. Worst case scenario, they miss the playoffs, he leaves, but they still get the QO picks. That's probably not *that* much worse than what a trade would bring.
Which means a repeat of last year. If you can do the Vazquez deal, where you get a couple of guys for someone who doesn't fit into the long term plan and can be replaced in the short term (e.g., Adam Duvall), you do that. And if you can get a rental who would help now for some lesser prospects (e.g., David Hamilton), you do that too.
Which means a repeat of last year. If you can do the Vazquez deal, where you get a couple of guys for someone who doesn't fit into the long term plan and can be replaced in the short term (e.g., Adam Duvall), you do that. And if you can get a rental who would help now for some lesser prospects (e.g., David Hamilton), you do that too.
I chose "other" but I agree totally with @TFisNEXT. I don't personally think of that as "standing pat" though, hence an "other" vote.
However, if they're not willing or able to do at least that, then I'd certainly change my vote to "sell, sell, sell."
The Yankees and Houston both have more "coming back" than the Sox do, so what the Sox have in-house isn't enough, at least in my opinion.
However, if they're not willing or able to do at least that, then I'd certainly change my vote to "sell, sell, sell."
The Yankees and Houston both have more "coming back" than the Sox do, so what the Sox have in-house isn't enough, at least in my opinion.
Backup catcher, defense oriented who can play 2X per week. If they are going to compete this is a serious priority. Alfaro who has a brutal defensive reputation and showed that off on Saturday can’t be allowed behind the plate again. Wong has been great but he went from heavy platoon with McGuire to playing 90% of the games. They need to find someone.
Mostly stand pat. I know NYY's and Houston are having significant players returning but the biggest Sox weakness (starting pitching depth and Middle Infield) are being addressed. I'd love to see the other MI spot upgraded but I don't think it's really possible and having Chang or Arroyo or Valdez as the worst player isn't terrible. I could see a rental for rental swap with a competing NL team needing an OF spot, sending them Kike or Duvall depending on the need, offense or defense with someone better than Change/Arroyo/Valdez returning. Adding Valdez in to the deal could be a nice sweetener for longer term needs of that team too.
I agree with this. It seems like there is a need on the roster for a 3rd catcher with options. They are playing with fire with Wong. McGuire's imminent return will help a lot, but a AAA catcher who could plausibly appear in the majors and shuttle back/forth to Worcester would be helpful as a depth piece into 2024.
I chose mostly stand pat, meaning that I think they should be active and opportunistic on the margins like they were in 2023, shedding any redundant pieces that do not have long-term role on the team, and shoring up areas of weakness for the stretch run that could provide depth in 2024.
I think Team Stand Pat is underestimating the challenges the Red Sox will have keeping all our prospies together. The following prospects from Fangraphs top 46 Red Sox prospects list will need to be added to the 40 man roster by December or risk being lost to Rule V draft:
#8 Shane Drohan
#10 Wilkelman Gonzalez
#11 Angel Bastardo
#14 Edison Paulino
#17 Bradley Blalock
#23 Braner Bonaci
#24 Luis Perales
#26 Ryan Fernandez
#30 Juan Encarnacion
#31 Chi-Jung Liu
#39 Allen Castro
#43 Joey Stock
#46 Jhostynxon Garcia
That's in addition to Valdez, Hamilton, Mata, Gudino, Rafaela, and Abreu who are already on the 40 man.
We're not going to add that many. Prospects are bananas, not gold bullion. You have to use them or they go bad. We have more depth than we can use right now. That makes us buyers.
FWIW, my proposed trade of Drohan + Valdez + flipped Duvall prospect for Montgomery + DeJong comes out slightly favorable for St. Louis on Baseball Trade Values and I think it would be a big win for us.
#8 Shane Drohan
#10 Wilkelman Gonzalez
#11 Angel Bastardo
#14 Edison Paulino
#17 Bradley Blalock
#23 Braner Bonaci
#24 Luis Perales
#26 Ryan Fernandez
#30 Juan Encarnacion
#31 Chi-Jung Liu
#39 Allen Castro
#43 Joey Stock
#46 Jhostynxon Garcia
That's in addition to Valdez, Hamilton, Mata, Gudino, Rafaela, and Abreu who are already on the 40 man.
We're not going to add that many. Prospects are bananas, not gold bullion. You have to use them or they go bad. We have more depth than we can use right now. That makes us buyers.
FWIW, my proposed trade of Drohan + Valdez + flipped Duvall prospect for Montgomery + DeJong comes out slightly favorable for St. Louis on Baseball Trade Values and I think it would be a big win for us.
I voted "stand pat," but perhaps should have voted Other, b/c I think the Sox should try to get Rich Hill and a better back-up catcher than Alfaro. However, I don't know how long McGuire's rehab is expected to take.
They definitely need to do the normal deadline roster juggling that most teams do with the 40 man in mind. Trading some guys on the back end of the roster and maybe adding some depth pieces (SP, MI) makes sense as part of that as well. But they are a developing team with lots of young players they are integrating, this is a time when you stick with the players you got to see what you have, and take your chances getting into the playoffs. They're not at a point when the team is developed and ready to add the finishing pieces to.
I'm on the mostly stand pat team but I understand the impending crunch. I also think that sometimes we get too concerned with the Rule 5 stuff. Yeah, sometime guys get drafted (like Song and Ward). But most of them don't. So if some of those guys you list are left unprotected this winter, that doesn't mean they're gone. Certainly not all of them anyway.
I'd be all for a trade like you suggest that moves redundancies from the organization for pieces that can help now. I suspect that it will be an extreme sellers' market and everything will be more expensive than something like BTV might suggest.
How aggressive they are will obviously hinge on how much value they place on the revenue for a wildcard bid and a 10% chance of making a run and stealing a championship.
This is where I stand too. Right now the Sox are not far out of a wild card spot (with a ton of competition of course) - this isn't sell territory to me yet. They have the Braves and Giants coming up, two good teams, so a complete bomb or amazing week might change this perspective a bit (if they go 0-6, go below .500, and the Yankees, Twins, Angels, and Mariners all pass 'em...maybe we're differently focused) but they have what should be a very winnable stretch in August as well as games against pretty much all of their competition for these slots. Unless the return for a Paxton or Duvall is undeniable, I think the Sox should play it out, go for minor upgrades/side grades/prospect grabs if possible, but otherwise play it out. There's been a lot of good in the org this year and outright selling on it doesn't feel quite right given when they stand.
Consolidating some of those Rule 5 prospect losses into a keepable talent or something to move this year is also a priority but I think that can be done in buy, sell, or stay.
Unless someone bowls them over, I’m actually not convinced it will be anything better than the QO picks
Some players have to go - so the obvious thing to do is get a back-end of the rotation starter.
I would try to keep Duvall - we need right-handed power. I would try to deal Kike - who doesn't have a place to play at this point (I prefer Arroyo at second).
I would try to keep Duvall - we need right-handed power. I would try to deal Kike - who doesn't have a place to play at this point (I prefer Arroyo at second).
That makes us buyers to some degree before the next Rule 5 draft. Either now or after the season. I'd think after the season it would be easier to deal some of these guys to teams with more room, for younger prospects.
I think Arroyo just went on the IL with a bad thumb. I prefer dealing Hernandez and bringing up Pablo Reyes.
If Arroyo is going on the IL, no doubt Reyes will be the replacement. His rehab clock expired yesterday.
Right. It's easier to make trades in the offseason when trade partners don't need to worry about keeping a major league team on the field. You can trade away your starting second baseman in November and have until March to plug the hole. It's harder to do when you have until tonight's game and need to match up perfectly to make a deal.
I was on team hold until I read this, reminding me of the crunch coming up. Now several of those guys are not going anywhere anyway but even if we just look at them down to #24 plus the existing ones that's 13 slots on the 40 leaving one open one after the 26 man roster. I don't think that's going to fly realistically just to have some shuttle space.
I voted mostly stand pat. I will confess that this year, I can understand the logic of Bloom's buy AND sell strategy of last year that so frustrated me at the time (I had wish he had simply sold more aggressively and thought he was caught in a hedge). For this year's squad, it makes sense. Gotta hold on to pitching and get a solid innings eater for the rotation. And so ... the only pieces to sell are guys who will be gone next year and are not Paxton....which means see what you can get for Duval and Kiké ... Not sure what else there is to spare.
* I guess if they tank in the next week you could move Paxton.
* I guess if they tank in the next week you could move Paxton.
This season particularly is where the lack of the Sept. 1 deadline comes into play. Boston's schedule is much tougher in August and guys who might have been moved for playoff eligibility likely will stay with the team, should it falter.
@JM3 wrote a great post a ways back about Bloom's approach. A few of the relevant quotes about long-term deals and the deadline:
To that end, I would expect the Sox nibble around the market a bit, looking for guys who could help them without having to give up much. Both Duvall and Hernandez qualify as "not much" -- tho I wouldn't be surprised if neither gets moved either. And unlike last year, my guess is that the fan and media response to a tepid deadline won't be nearly as angry. This team has been frustrating at times but fun to watch.
This all feels mostly right. To me, the team is better this season -- but the division is even harder. Which means, do they have enough cost controlled talent to "make a run at things"? Probably not -- and least not without a lot of things breaking their way (specifically: pitching health).
To that end, I would expect the Sox nibble around the market a bit, looking for guys who could help them without having to give up much. Both Duvall and Hernandez qualify as "not much" -- tho I wouldn't be surprised if neither gets moved either. And unlike last year, my guess is that the fan and media response to a tepid deadline won't be nearly as angry. This team has been frustrating at times but fun to watch.
I expect/suspect we’re retaining Paxton medium-term, so I wouldn’t trade him for less than an absolute haul.
But Duvall and Kiké should go for some combo of young prospects and salary relief. I am not sure I believe the media suggestions that LA is interested in Kiké, but if so: sold.
Beyond that, we should deal a couple of the young pitchers (we can’t keep them all!) for a more established version. Murphy and Drohan seem like they could bring back somebody interesting, perhaps even with a bit of control left beyond this season.
So here's a fake internet trade I came up with after reading that the Reds are talking about dealing Jonathan India, who is being squeezed out of their young, promising infield and unhappy with a potential position change. It's a three-way deal with the Cardinals; it checks out on BTV.
BOSTON GETS: Jack Flaherty from St. Louis, a rental SP. Jonathan India from Cincinnati, a good pre-arb 2B.
CINCINNATI GETS: A haul. SPs Wikelman Gonzalez, Chris Murphy, Yordanny Monegro, and a paid-for Adam Duvall from Boston; JoJo Romero (a good lefty reliever entering his arb years) from St. Louis.
ST. LOUIS GETS: Shane Drohan from Boston, a AAA SP. They've said their target is controllable starting pitching. Here's some! Enmanuel Valdez from Boston, a AAA DH/infielder. He'll be useful for them after they deal a few of their other infielders, as they likely should.
Maybe St. Louis sends something else/better to Cincinnati to get another one of the young Boston pitchers. You could make a version of this deal where Cincinnati gets Jordan Montgomery instead of Romero and walks away with Monegro or Gonzalez.
Boston shores up the middle infield with an average defensive 2B with a 100 OPS+ *from the right side of the plate,* and adds a rental in Flaherty to smooth over the gaps in the rotation. This clears some 40-man space now and in the near future. It comes at the cost of a decent chunk of our pitching pipeline.
Cincinnati trades from their stockpile of young middle infielders and gets a pile of desperately-needed young pitching and brings back a fan favorite fourth outfielder who complements their all-LH outfield.
But Duvall and Kiké should go for some combo of young prospects and salary relief. I am not sure I believe the media suggestions that LA is interested in Kiké, but if so: sold.
Beyond that, we should deal a couple of the young pitchers (we can’t keep them all!) for a more established version. Murphy and Drohan seem like they could bring back somebody interesting, perhaps even with a bit of control left beyond this season.
So here's a fake internet trade I came up with after reading that the Reds are talking about dealing Jonathan India, who is being squeezed out of their young, promising infield and unhappy with a potential position change. It's a three-way deal with the Cardinals; it checks out on BTV.
BOSTON GETS: Jack Flaherty from St. Louis, a rental SP. Jonathan India from Cincinnati, a good pre-arb 2B.
CINCINNATI GETS: A haul. SPs Wikelman Gonzalez, Chris Murphy, Yordanny Monegro, and a paid-for Adam Duvall from Boston; JoJo Romero (a good lefty reliever entering his arb years) from St. Louis.
ST. LOUIS GETS: Shane Drohan from Boston, a AAA SP. They've said their target is controllable starting pitching. Here's some! Enmanuel Valdez from Boston, a AAA DH/infielder. He'll be useful for them after they deal a few of their other infielders, as they likely should.
Maybe St. Louis sends something else/better to Cincinnati to get another one of the young Boston pitchers. You could make a version of this deal where Cincinnati gets Jordan Montgomery instead of Romero and walks away with Monegro or Gonzalez.
Boston shores up the middle infield with an average defensive 2B with a 100 OPS+ *from the right side of the plate,* and adds a rental in Flaherty to smooth over the gaps in the rotation. This clears some 40-man space now and in the near future. It comes at the cost of a decent chunk of our pitching pipeline.
Cincinnati trades from their stockpile of young middle infielders and gets a pile of desperately-needed young pitching and brings back a fan favorite fourth outfielder who complements their all-LH outfield.
Paraphrasing what I think some others have already said, I thought Chaim's opportunistic buy/sell approach was the right way to go the last couple years, and while I voted "stand pat" in the poll, this is how I would approach this trade deadline as well.
I think of this as the stage where Danny Ainge had already stripped down the roster, was adding assets and players, wasn't yet ready to push all his chips in, but still wanted to build a culture of competitiveness on th C's. This Sox team will compete, even if it isn't ready to push all the chips in for a championship this year.
I think of this as the stage where Danny Ainge had already stripped down the roster, was adding assets and players, wasn't yet ready to push all his chips in, but still wanted to build a culture of competitiveness on th C's. This Sox team will compete, even if it isn't ready to push all the chips in for a championship this year.
I'm in the "other" box, but I'm probably within the "Stand Pat" orbit.
I think they should explore mostly lateral moves, shoring up their pitching, maybe finding a "perfect" role-player. Apart from SS/2B I don't see anywhere they otherwise need to replace a current starter. And Story's coming back.
If they stood entirely pat, I'd be OK with that. (Granted, I'm not privy to the medicals on the injured players.)
I think they should explore mostly lateral moves, shoring up their pitching, maybe finding a "perfect" role-player. Apart from SS/2B I don't see anywhere they otherwise need to replace a current starter. And Story's coming back.
If they stood entirely pat, I'd be OK with that. (Granted, I'm not privy to the medicals on the injured players.)
Man mock trades drive me nuts, but this really would make a ton of sense for the Sox if they can sell it.
I'd rather try and consolidate some of the rule 5 candidates, but judging from some proposals, it's a sellers market and I wouldn't trade, say, four pitchers for an infielder when infield will be our strength next year. it's have to be a rental infielder and a longer-term pitcher than the other way around.
No way should we trade Winkelman Gonzalez, who is flashing top-of-rotation stuff in AA. I'm sure India is fine but we might have Story and Mayer as soon as next year, plus various other options.
I like him, too.
So, in that case, sub in a different one of the pitching prospects. The point is that we can't fill our whole 40-man with minor league pitchers, and we kind of have a ton of good ones all of a sudden, so some of them need to get moved before Rule V.
This makes a ton of sense in the abstract, but when you try to actually identify targets and put a plausible deal together, there just aren't many guys like that available. If you can think of any, I'd love to know.
Dylan Cease is really the guy, and his price tag would be such that infield would no longer be a future strength, if you take my meaning.
My “Other” vote is an argument for Chaim’s patented “buy & sell.”
1. Kike looks cooked, send him out for whatever you can get to clear the roster spot, call up Reyes.
2. Try and deal from the bulk of guys who have to be added to the 40 man, but I think that’s a problem downslope from the pandemic that every team is dealing with (like the overstocked draft class) and it’s going to be very hard to do.
3. Duvall can be dealt to clear the OF logjam and maybe bring back pitching, but otherwise he’s fine depth. He’s not getting a QO in any event…
4. Paxton should only be dealt if they completely collapse over the next week, and then for a package better than QO draft picks, and I don’t think this team can fall that far, that fast (but ask me in a week). I think he stays.
5. With pitching in such short supply & a sellers market, our best plan is hoping the guys who are coming back come back right, rather than adding somebody from outside. Hope isn’t a plan, but there you have it…
6. As much as this team has played down to some bad opponents, let’s look for good baseball as they play up to their strength of schedule.
7. Profit?
1. Kike looks cooked, send him out for whatever you can get to clear the roster spot, call up Reyes.
2. Try and deal from the bulk of guys who have to be added to the 40 man, but I think that’s a problem downslope from the pandemic that every team is dealing with (like the overstocked draft class) and it’s going to be very hard to do.
3. Duvall can be dealt to clear the OF logjam and maybe bring back pitching, but otherwise he’s fine depth. He’s not getting a QO in any event…
4. Paxton should only be dealt if they completely collapse over the next week, and then for a package better than QO draft picks, and I don’t think this team can fall that far, that fast (but ask me in a week). I think he stays.
5. With pitching in such short supply & a sellers market, our best plan is hoping the guys who are coming back come back right, rather than adding somebody from outside. Hope isn’t a plan, but there you have it…
6. As much as this team has played down to some bad opponents, let’s look for good baseball as they play up to their strength of schedule.
7. Profit?
@Yo La Tengo had a couple good names in the other thread.
Brady Singer (KC) and Patrick Sandoval (LAA). LAA generally has the money not to care about such things, but for KC, Singer becomes arb eligible next season, so something could possibly be worked out there. You'd obviously be talking about less to acquire than Cease would cost.
Interesting names to consider, no idea if either is available, but I really like the suggestions.
Sell Paxton, Duvall, and Enrique for a backup C and any and all young/affordable pitching. If Singer is available, I'd definitely go for someone like him. Bargain hunt especially for anyone on KC, Oakland, Wash or Col.
I think Cease would cost too much, given our chances.
I'd also consider seeing what you can get trading Kenley or JT, especially the former. But both love playing here, so it would be a PR/possible future FA hit.
I think Cease would cost too much, given our chances.
I'd also consider seeing what you can get trading Kenley or JT, especially the former. But both love playing here, so it would be a PR/possible future FA hit.
Selling Paxton, even though he is an impending free agent, would be a PR hit too. I think they can easily sell a Kike or Duvall trade as dealing from depth to fill other holes and an attempt to stay competitive this year. Trading Paxton would be a clear white flag situation unless Bloom can pull off a miracle and get multiple starting pitchers with years of control.
Oh for sure. Just think they can get more for Paxton than Enrique or Duvall.
Still hopeful for the miracle.
I was just reading that India is ranked 30th at second base in Defensive Runs Saved and 34th in Outs Above Average. That seems like a poor fit, especially considering his OPS this year is .749, which is not good enough to offset that problematic defense.
I'm going to go back to avoiding the main board for a bit after this post... but this seems beyond insane to me.
The Red Sox are "upgrading" from Murphy to Flaherty (Murphy has a better ERA/xERA/FIP/xFIP than Flaherty this year). You are also giving up Murphy's 5 extra years of control.
& "upgrading" from Duvall to India (Duvall has a 118 wRC+ to India's 99). India does have more years of control, but he hardly seems like a difference-maker.
& in order to do that you want the Red Sox to give up 3 of their top 5 pitching prospects? & Valdez?
I don't even think Dombrowski would be that short-sighted.
India is not an "average" defensive 2B
Rosenthal in The Athletic: " ... the problem with the Reds trading Jonathan India is his defense at second base. India entered Monday ranked 30th at the position in Defensive Runs Saved and 34th in Outs Above Average. Teams are placing greater emphasis on middle-infield defense this season with the banning of shifts, potentially compromising India’s trade value."
But what are you even trying to accomplish? An extra win over the course of the season? By giving up our 2nd, 3rd, 4th & 6th best pitching prospects? & ensuring that we probably don't have any cost-controlled starting pitching coming any time soon?
If that's the actual market, half the teams that are considered buyers should become full on sellers because the equilibrium is so jacked up.
Like Paxton/Duvall is a comparable combo to Flaherty/India, right? If we can get 4 of a team's top 6 starting pitching prospects for that, we kind of have to do it.
Agreed. Seems silly and not very Bloom-esque to give up a lot of what this farm had been lacking in for so long to acquire two guys who don’t move the needle anymore than the two major league guys we gave up to acquire them. India does intrigue me with the bat and it would solve the middle infield woes until Mayer is ready, but it would have to be at the right price, which it most likely will not.
Go out and get a back end starter (i.e. Rich Hill (again), Lance Lynn, etc) that won’t cost much and maybe a cheap utility rental as well. This team already has a good core but isn’t in position to win a championship. Next year on the other hand….
I still think a guy like Montgomery will come pretty cheaply (maybe one top 10 prospect) since he'd be 2+ month rental. I know other teams will be trying for him also for the same reason which will drive up the price, but I really don't see any team offering THEIR Mayers, Bleis, Rafaelas, etc.... mostly just because of how valuable cost controlled talent has become over the last 4 years.
I'd also look into extending Montgomery too. The Sox kinda sorta need to hold onto their lower minor pitching depth- I'm not sold on Drohan, Murphy or Walters as ML starters, so add one of them (AND JUST LET DALBEC GO!!!). But that leaves a gap with really only Bello and Crawford, as neither Houck nor Whitlock have been able to prove they belong yet... and while I'm starting to feel bullish about Crawford I'd still like some proven depth there. And of course..... there's Chris Sale. And he's actually gone after '24.
Anyhow.... their only pressing need I think is short term starter this season and then someone to cover for 2-3 more seasons while some of the lower level talent shows their potential as they move up.
As an aside.... I was skeptical about Winkelman but he's starting to remind me of Jon Lester who had horrible BB problems in the mL's but K'ed a ton and didn't give up many runs. Similar arsenal too. But he's looking like the earliest he'd be a regular starter for the ML team would be '24