Trevor Story had surgery on his right UCL and is expected to miss time
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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Judging by Olney's comments, lots of teams knew about his elbow fragility, and the only injury protection I know about is Arroyo.
Is “not ruling out a return in 2023” just awkward phrasing, lowering of expectations, or something else? It doesn’t sound like a super optimistic take on Story’s ability to contribute this season.
New members / Recent joiners: Friendly tip - these threads can get long so please consider if your post is adding value before hitting the post button. Atleast half of my posts that I start posting I end up not posting. It doesn't take long to look up supporting points, or to craft a compelling opinion on something.
I was responding to your comment that your summer was ruined. Not your evenings.
Apologies if this was answered up thread but is the four to six months recovery meant to mean major league ready, or baseball activity ready? He's sure to need some time in the minors to get his timing back, etc. We may be looking at an early August return, at best.
PS Sign me up also for team sign Jose Iglesias.
PS Sign me up also for team sign Jose Iglesias.
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He's played 280 innings there, none since 2015, and he wasn't really good, although that's a small sample.
Trevor Story hasn’t posted as much as 3 WAR since 2019. Perhaps that understates his value a bit, but it’s not like this injury takes what was a promising season and dashes it on the rocks. It’s more like, this takes a team that already had several question marks and adds a good-sized hole to it.
Excellent strawman. 9/10, needs better capitalization, though.
They are not the same thing. For one, Trevor Story, even in playing only 94 games, put up 2.5 bWAR (12th among 2B with over 80 games played) and 2.3 fWAR (good for 15th among 2B with at least 250 plate appearances. He provides value with his bat (though I wish he wouldn't strike out so much), and he provides excellent value defensively at second base. There is still 3 years left after this season on his contract, and he is currently only 30. It may end up being a bad contract, but it's too early to tell, and there is literally zero reason to believe he won't come back and be a very valuable player for this team in 2024, if not the second half of 2023.
There were already warning signs about Sale's shoulder in 2018. His overall season looks good but he missed time in August with shoulder issues, didn't look nearly as good coming back from the injury in September (though he was still pretty good) and then looked very, very mortal in the playoffs. Oh, and he had another year left on his previous contract when he signed the extension, so they didn't even need to sign it when they did. Of course, 2019 was another injury plagued season, and he's given the team all of 47 innings since the extension actually kicked in, so I can see where you would equate the two,
The phrasing is just weird, and it's impossible to glean the full context from that quote alone. However, if we assume the longer timeline of 6 months for recovery, then that puts Story's return into the post-ASB territory. Which is late enough that any sort of setback in rehab, not uncommon with elbow injuries, could push his return into September
. OTOH, maybe he heals fast and is back in May/June. I guess there's still a wide range of outcomes, in which case it makes sense to lower expectations.
A) Story is not "oft-injured". He played at least 142 games in every season prior to '22. The majority of the time he missed in '22 was being hit by a pitch. That's not a predictable injury.
B) Are you suggesting that they should have had a full-time player as a backup plan for Story?
Blaming Bloom for this injury is a complete straw man argument.
Why did he wait until now? Wouldnt that be something to report when no one except the Sox *signed* Story?
I disagree. Story had a serious elbow injury that left him amongst the availables in the 2021 offseason, giving Bloom the chance to make a high-risk, high-reward gamble at a relatively modest USD 140 million. Olney's self-congratulatory tweet confirms the reduced market for Story. Unfortunately (for Red Sox fans), Bloom took the risk and we are left holding the grenade.
I don't blame Bloom for taking the gamble, but let's not pretend that it wasn't a gamble, and it hasn't now blown up in our faces.
Christian Arroyo, 2B 2023. It was meant to be.
That gamble could cost the team half a season of Story, after which he’ll be able to play shortstop again. I don’t see that as a gamble blowing up in anyone’s face.
Even assuming they had prior concerns about this year before he reported the discomfort in late December, I don't think anything regarding Story's health would've likely changed their approach with Bogarts. They wouldn't have, and shouldn't have, IMO, committed to the kind of overpay San Diego offered. Not with Mayer in the pipeline. Posts suggesting a correlation between the two events are missing the mark. At some point in his tenure here, Story was going back to 2B again. This probably hastens it. Hence, it would be a good idea to sign a decent veteran stop gap until Mayer is ready(hopefully, 2024).
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I think the question is more what do we do WHEN some of those guys get hurt. It may not be Kike and Arroyo, but it could be Verdugo and McGuire. But rest assured, someone(s) will get hurt because this is baseball and guys get hurt every year.
The proposed lineup looks delicate as tissue paper to me, in terms of needing career norm performance form everyone just to be average.
Anything could happen and I’ll force myself to be optimistic by opening day, but I don’t think the 2013 comparison holds.We had a lineup of guys who had far more past success in 2013 than we do right now.
Yorke was below replacement-level at high-A last year. He's years away from MLB with a reasonable chance at never (still 20 at least). Emmanuel Valdez was a bit above replacement-level at AAA last year so he's much more likely.
Rafaela was 119 OPS+ in half a season of AA at 21. He has a shot if he looks good in the spring but I wouldn't count on it.
More likely we sign one stopgap IF and either Arroyo starts or Kiké goes to 2nd so we can platoon Duran/Refsnyder.
What's the deal with Jonathan Villar? Of his last four, he's put up one excellent season (3.9 fWAR in 2019), one very good one (2.5 fWAR in 2021) and two atrocious ones (last year and 2020, if that counts). He's not especially old at 32.
Does he have character issues or something? He's been in 10 organizations, which is kind of a lot for an average-ish defensive shortstop with (once-)blazing speed and a solid bat. He has a .312 career wOBA, which is higher than Elvis Andrus' (.307) and extremely close to Dansby Swanson's (.315 career wOBA).
There's a ton of clamor for Andrus and Iglesias, and after today's news I'd be happy to get either of them too. But are we sure that Andrus, a Boras guy, is that much better than a one-year pact with Villar? Here are their combined lines since 2019:
Player (2023 age) since 2019:
Andrus (34): 83 wRC+, -26 SS defensive runs saved (3987 innings)
Iglesias (33): 92 wRC+, -23 SS defensive runs saved (3306 innings)
Villar (32): 94 wRC+, 0 SS defensive runs saved (1039 innings)
Does he have character issues or something? He's been in 10 organizations, which is kind of a lot for an average-ish defensive shortstop with (once-)blazing speed and a solid bat. He has a .312 career wOBA, which is higher than Elvis Andrus' (.307) and extremely close to Dansby Swanson's (.315 career wOBA).
There's a ton of clamor for Andrus and Iglesias, and after today's news I'd be happy to get either of them too. But are we sure that Andrus, a Boras guy, is that much better than a one-year pact with Villar? Here are their combined lines since 2019:
Player (2023 age) since 2019:
Andrus (34): 83 wRC+, -26 SS defensive runs saved (3987 innings)
Iglesias (33): 92 wRC+, -23 SS defensive runs saved (3306 innings)
Villar (32): 94 wRC+, 0 SS defensive runs saved (1039 innings)
You think that Story will play shortstop again? (in best Trevor Howard brogue) I DOUBT IT.
I consider that the tail of a very long tail risk gamble.
Iggy Now.
Rafaela’s chase rate is scary. It’s why I was ok with the right trade for him.
View: https://twitter.com/iancundall/status/1612930581968429059?s=46&t=P8tlJZOQ3je41Z0l0cbOWQ
Strong agree here. I think his time as an SS is finished. At least for the Red Sox.
I don't really have an opinion, other than I believe what Dr Chris has to say on such matters
Iglesias hasn't been a good defensive shortstop in years, so not sure why so many people are interested in him outside of we know who he is and he was really good offensively for a month in 2021. At this point he's around league average with his glove and a bad bat, which I guess is better than what they currently have on the 40 man, but that's a really low bar right now.
I don't know, Sprowl. A Story return to shortstop seems more likely now than before the surgery announcement in my view.
It's not just that they don't have any depth up the middle; they don't have any depth in the middle of the lineup. We're looking at something like:
LF Yoshida (L)
3B Devers (L)
DH Turner
1B Casas (L)
CF/SS Hernandez
RF Verdugo (L)
2B Arroyo
C McGuire (L)
SS/CF TK
Not great. Way too left-handed. Lot of pressure on Casas to produce right away. Bad defensive alignment to boot with Yoshida learning the Wall and Verdugo in RF.
LF Yoshida (L)
3B Devers (L)
DH Turner
1B Casas (L)
CF/SS Hernandez
RF Verdugo (L)
2B Arroyo
C McGuire (L)
SS/CF TK
Not great. Way too left-handed. Lot of pressure on Casas to produce right away. Bad defensive alignment to boot with Yoshida learning the Wall and Verdugo in RF.
One less bat in an already weak lineup to protect Devers...(sigh). Pitch around Devers? Why not.
It ended up not being the case, my overreaction.
Nonetheless it is frustrating they seemed to never want to resign X at market rate, with this contingency plan but with this potential injury known, and now SS could be a gaping hole all of next year.
His chase rate is high because he's quick enough to get to everything, though he doesn't always make good contact. Regardless, it's a known issue he's working on in winter ball; the Athletic had a whole story about it last year. https://theathletic.com/3736869/2022/11/03/red-sox-prospect-ceddanne-rafaela/
Despite that, he's performed at every level he's seen in the minors so far, while being 1.5-3 years younger than league averages.
I'm excited to get him here and not okay trading him.
This sucks, but I can’t imagine them not getting someone to play SS. I wonder if he is out for all of 2023 if Mayer gets a cup of coffee by the end of the year?
Iggy is Beloved of SoSH. He stands in for nimble afoot, dexterity abroad. He has great hands, Bolshoi feet, and Bogey completion.
Also, he's priced appropriately for a shortstop suitable for the also ran, and frankly, what else do we hope for in 2013?
FWIIW, Iggy was a great utility infielder in the summer of 2013 before he was flipped for Jake Beavy and change. We have less to hope for in 2023
To Tim's point though he's the kind of guy you shouldn't rush since MLB chews up and spits out incredible talents that failed to develop good enough discipline before they hit The Show. Agree that I'm excited though after his fast rise and high floor glove!
Bad bat? Not great but he hit .292 last year with a OBP of .328, both higher than Story. His bat won't kill them until (or if) Story comes back.
Cora loves him. I say he's coming.
Edit: and Arroyo is the definition of not reliable. Iggy looked pretty good at second in his short time with the Sox in 21.
His defense has degraded to below-average unfortunately even if his bat has become a tiny bit more respectable. Bottom-10 in DRS for SSs with at least 500 innings last year: https://fieldingbible.com/DRSLeaderboard
Fangraphs still has him as positive so maybe league-average at best?
Playing in Coors will do that. He might be coming but there are better free agent options available. Story also combined that with gold glove caliber defense which Iggy doesn't have anymore, Story to Iggy is a pretty massive drop off.
We've known about his elbow issues since his time in Colorado. That was why he was available for under Lindor money in the first place.
Isn’t league average defense about what we would expect from a veteran stop gap, on a short term, low risk deal?
264/304/358 in Coors; 315/348/399 on the road.
Andrus seems like a potentially better option; assuming he would require more $$$ than Iggy and potentially less amenable to a backup role down the road, though?
Anyone else?
Probably true, but in this case what exactly is down the road? Mayer won't be a factor until at minimum late 2024, so unless he's holding out for more than 2 years it shouldn't be an issue. He can play short, Arroyo can stay at 2nd, and then when Story comes back Arroyo becomes the utility guy, something they don't really have on the roster right now.
I acknowledge the legitimacy and data foundation of your response. Jose Iglesias is but what he used to be. And who the hell are we?
We've come down in the world: the cost is still cheaper than anything he will be compared to the currently available. He will cost barely a million.
Let's own up to the place we've come down to: Despair.