Here's a bit of irony for you. I just tuned into NESN and what do you suppose is airing? The Xander Bogaerts edition of "My Story"
Christian Arroyo is a more recent and higher pick. Story's 6 years in the majors is the more relevant data-set.And the fact he's a 45th overall pick who mostly raked in the minors is a good sign.
Maximum no. Average yes, since Coors reduces breaking stuff so going to be missing the ball a lot more on the road. And probably doesn't average out to real figure (e.g. if his EV rises 5 MPH at Coors because he consistently makes good contact it might drop 10 MPH on the road when the pitches break more)Is there any reason not to place more focus on exit velocity and launch angle when trying to gauge how well Story will transition out of Coors? I have to think those two variables aren't impacted by higher altitude.
Yep. If we reset the year to 2019 (but still with the rolling 3-year) then Coors had the same HR effect as Nationals Park and Minute MaidHaven't the Jays been playing in Buffalo the last 2 years?
You were kind not to include links from our own offseason thread.Red Sox fanbase is dumb, news at 11.
Pull% | Cent% | Oppo% |
39.1% | 34.6% | 26.3% |
37.2% | 35.5% | 27.3% |
Yeah just talking pedigree. Clearly Arroyo has never hit with any power in either minors or majors.Christian Arroyo is a more recent and higher pick. Story's 6 years in the majors is the more relevant data-set.
Totally, and I believe someone already posted that statcast (which uses those in conjunction with park effects) suggested that he would have hit 42 and 38 HRs in 2019 and 2021, respectively, had he been playing on the Red Sox those years.Is there any reason not to place more focus on exit velocity and launch angle when trying to gauge how well Story will transition out of Coors? I have to think those two variables aren't impacted by higher altitude.
Only if we want to put our best defensive align on the field irrespective of players’ egos…Isn't Story a clearly better SS than Bogaerts? Assuming that's the case, don't they have to consider swapping them, if not in year one then definitely later if Bogaerts stays?
Still #5 for HRs and the big outfield and affect on breaking pitches continues makes it #1 overall for park factor https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factorsYou know that this hasn't been true for a while, right? Thanks to the humidors, Coors has gone from far and away the #1 park factor for home runs (something like 40% above average back in the 2010s, to just being in the top 10, usually only about 10-20% above average, similar to the Bronx and other 'normal' hitters parks.
Option 1 looks ideal to me. Cora seems to like to switch it up so we’ll probably see all 3 at some point.Interesting lineup options at the top now
Hernandez
Story
Devers
X
JD
Hernandez
X
Devers
JD
Story
Story
Hernandez
Devers
X
JD
Not quite. Those would be his HR totals if all his games had been played in Fenway, not just the home games. This is one of the reasons why simply overlaying spray charts on to Fenway (or any park) is a bit deceiving. And that's before getting into the differences of how balls carry at Coors vs sea level.Totally, and I believe someone already posted that statcast (which uses those in conjunction with park effects) suggested that he would have hit 42 and 38 HRs in 2019 and 2021, respectively, had he been playing on the Red Sox those years.
Indulging players’ egos and selfishness is what brought the Red Sox September starting pitcher Brad Peacock, so why mess with such a good thing?Only if we want to put our best defensive align on the field irrespective of players’ egos…
Luckily, he is only moving from the most run-friendly environment to the ...second most run-friendly environment! Especially as a pull hitter, the monster is much more likely to turn HRs into doubles than outs. Also worth noting, Fenway has less foul territory than Coors, so some of his foul outs will become second chances.Still #5 for HRs and the big outfield and affect on breaking pitches continues makes it #1 overall for park factor https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors
I'm trying to remember what I thought about Jeter not moving for ARod and if I have to retcon that opinion.Isn't Story a clearly better SS than Bogaerts? Assuming that's the case, don't they have to consider swapping them, if not in year one then definitely later if Bogaerts stays?
Mid 30s....a return back to the range of a .275-.285 batting average ...20 steals, and great D?Not quite. Those would be his HR totals if all his games had been played in Fenway, not just the home games. This is one of the reasons why simply overlaying spray charts on to Fenway (or any park) is a bit deceiving. And that's before getting into the differences of how balls carry at Coors vs sea level.
Story should hit well at Fenway and the rest of the AL East parks. I don't know that he's got 40 HR potential though.
If Story has continued arm issues then sure. If not, and if Bogaerts stays beyond this year, it sounds a lot like the Jeter situation that we all criticized for years.In addition to dealing with the personalities involved, there are concerns about Story's arm, so a move to 2B might be for the best anyway.
I agree - I don't think this necessarily means that Xander will be leaving. Although I certainly expect him to exercise the opt-out to get a bigger and longer contract, I think that Bloom (and Henry) will make a serious attempt to extend him, either before or after the opt-out, and leave him at SS until Mayer is ready. He's the face of the franchise, which has some value to the Red Sox brand, and needless to say he's solid, consistent and has generally been pretty healthy, so there's not a ton of risk. And he's a great teammate and good influence on Raffy, and might have a positive impact on our ability to extend Raffy as well.I don't think it means anything regarding Bogaerts, because we have no idea how much Story's elbow played into this deal. If there's concern that it won't hold up at SS much longer, then the expectation could be that Story is the long term second baseman.
Now if this was Story's the new shortstop and Bogaerts is moving, I could read it as Bogaerts is gone at the end of the year. But they're accommodating Bogaerts' desire to stay at short. Strikes me as a move made by a front office that wants him around, and wants to do what it can to keep him around.
Speaking of Brock Holt…he just signed a minor league deal with BravesI like the signing a lot.
One reason is that it cements Kíkè as the CF, with no having to move him to the infield if/when Arroyo gets hurt.
I wonder if Arroyo's future will be as a Brock Holt kind of swiss army knife, and he might actually be the RH bat who platoons with JBJ. Is he better than Tommy Pham? Maybe.
Finally, I wonder if this signing signals the end of the Jarren Duran experience. Duran really doesn't have a place on the roster now, as he's a bad-fielding version of JBJ (and I don't believe he has much more offense.) Maybe he can be traded for a SP to kill some of Sale's innings?
You forgot:So, which narrative will be glommed onto first?
1. Story was a product of the Coors Effect and a dumb signing
2. X is selfish for not wanting to move off shortstop
3. Story's contract is going to keep us from signing X
4. All of the above
I'm already seeing talk about Bogaerts leaving being inevitable, which is in line with but not quite the same as #3. So that's my guess.So, which narrative will be glommed onto first?
1. Story was a product of the Coors Effect and a dumb signing
2. X is selfish for not wanting to move off shortstop
3. Story's contract is going to keep us from signing X
4. All of the above
You forgot:
"Story gets injured and we should have known exactly what would happen ahead of time."
and,
"We could have signed Correra to a short term deal instead - if only we had tried harder."
Excellent suggestionsI'm already seeing talk about Bogaerts leaving being inevitable, which is in line with but not quite the same as #3. So that's my guess.
5. The fact that he was "still" available means no one else wanted him. Sox obviously got damaged goods/Chaim got lucky damage wasn't as severe as many thought it was.So, which narrative will be glommed onto first?
1. Story was a product of the Coors Effect and a dumb signing
2. X is selfish for not wanting to move off shortstop
3. Story's contract is going to keep us from signing X
4. All of the above
In this case I think it’s better to say “impatient.” Dumb would be believing that the Sox were fine as constituted before this signing, or unaware of how the competition has been improving…Red Sox fanbase is dumb, news at 11.
I agree.If Story has continued arm issues then sure. If not, and if Bogaerts stays beyond this year, it sounds a lot like the Jeter situation that we all criticized for years.
Red Sox fanbase is pedantic, news at 11In this case I think it’s better to say “impatient.” Dumb would be believing that the Sox were fine as constituted before this signing, or unaware of how the competition has been improving…
I don't believe he's committed to anything explicitly. It's still just reporters and pundits reading the tea leaves and making assumptions at this point.Hasn’t X already said he’s going to opt out and try FA?
My comment was not about winning the auction. It was the less than anticipated cost. As I wrote above, I hope that the lower than expected contract is due to the sequence of other signings not issues with his elbow.I suppose that anytime you win an auction for anything you have to consider the fact that you indeed paid more than anyone else was willing to pay. Kind of how they wrk.
FWIW, Arroyo has zero MLB experience as an outfielder.I like the signing a lot.
One reason is that it cements Kíkè as the CF, with no having to move him to the infield if/when Arroyo gets hurt.
I wonder if Arroyo's future will be as a Brock Holt kind of swiss army knife, and he might actually be the RH bat who platoons with JBJ. Is he better than Tommy Pham? Maybe.
Finally, I wonder if this signing signals the end of the Jarren Duran experience. Duran really doesn't have a place on the roster now, as he's a bad-fielding version of JBJ (and I don't believe he has much more offense.) Maybe he can be traded for a SP to kill some of Sale's innings?
He’s said he plans to opt out, and he’s open to an extension with the Sox. So yes, but the emphasis hasn’t been on trying free agency (as a euphemism for wanting to leave town) from what I’ve seen reported.Hasn’t X already said he’s going to opt out and try FA?
Neither did Hanley, and look how that ... never mindFWIW, Arroyo has zero MLB experience as an outfielder.
Every fanbase is dumb. Some fanbases are more entitled than others, and that's the team's damned fault for spending a lot of money and winning a lot of games.This is good stuff, and hopefully will put the numbers I posted into context. I think Story is going to be really good, I just don't think he will be .900 OPS good, but will be better than what the non-NLW numbers say.Red Sox fanbase is dumb, news at 11.
Either 1 or 2 depending on what happens first: Story goes 0-4 or X has an error.So, which narrative will be glommed onto first?
1. Story was a product of the Coors Effect and a dumb signing
2. X is selfish for not wanting to move off shortstop
3. Story's contract is going to keep us from signing X
4. All of the above
Especially if the Sox at least meet him partway in terms of "paying him like a shortstop."He’s said he plans to opt out, and he’s open to an extension with the Sox. So yes, but the emphasis hasn’t been on trying free agency (as a euphemism for wanting to leave town) from what I’ve seen reported.
Given the mutual admiration between Xander and Story, the signing could smooth a transition from SS to 2B. One guy gracefully moves off position for the incumbent one season, and later the other returns the favor with a new contract. Call it saving face, solidarity, collegiality, whatever, but it could work out pretty well for keeping X in town.
So a contract lower than expected means a team overpaid and a contract higher than expected would also mean team overpaid?My comment was not about winning the auction. It was the less than anticipated cost. As I wrote above, I hope that the lower than expected contract is due to the sequence of other signings not issues with his elbow.
Both Marcelo and Yorke are MLB ready and they have other holes to fill (likely OF or SP, but it's 4 years away so hard to tell) would be the only scenario I can envision.Is there any scenario where Story opts out and the Sox don't add year 7 to nullify it?