There is no accelerationist argument that can be used to justify missing the 2022 WC. It's a huge amount of lost revenue that can't be reinvested in various programs, and it's a huge lost opportunity to grow the fanbase. Major events are at the origin stories of many people's fandom of soccer in general and the USMNT in particular. Missing two WCs in a row would be devastating.
I am of the viewpoint that it's almost always wise to change managers for a new cycle. There are exceptions, like Jogi Löw's long tenure with Germany, but in the large number of cases things tend to get stale, and managers struggle to evolve their tactics and player selection in conjunction with how the player pool is evolving. In the 2026, it's an especially acute concern for the USMNT because very few players will naturally age out of the pool, while more and more young players will emerge, so the tendency toward veteran bias could be strong.
The USSF has a poor track record of moving on from managers at the right time. Every time a manager has gotten a second cycle, it's worked out very poorly for them. Arena's 2006 cycle ended poorly. Bradley and Klinsmann did not make it through their second cycles. Hopefully the USSF has learned from this, and will move on from Berhalter no matter what happens. If the USMNT makes a Cinderella run to the QF and Berhalter is living large, I'd still be calling for a new manager.
Since Berhalter's hire, the USSF has replaced its extremely long-time CEO and true power broker (Dan Flynn) as well as its president (Cordeiro) with new blood. Are they going to make choices in the hiring process that are less clubby in the past? I certainly can't say, but we also don't know for sure that it'll be the same-old, same-old because Wilson and Cone do not have a track record yet.