Vazquez plays defense, or The New Molina

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I think that as his BABIP normalizes (20.2 LD% currently), you'll end up seeing a guy who is somewhere in the ballpark of .250/.320/.350 over the next couple of years.  Pretty close to league-average with the bat for the position, and clearly far superior on the defensive side of the ball.  Anything above that is probably overly optimistic at this point, though we clearly have seen a few defensive catchers who have picked up the offensive side as they have gone along.  Vazquez hasn't shown any signs of being a consistent power threat in his ML numbers, but his contact rates are really solid, and I could see him ending up as  .280/.350/.400 guy for a few career years.

I'm sorry, but Vasquez is currently sporting a .562 ops; has never had a year at any level where he has been over .775 ops at any level; and always has had questions about whether he could hit enough at the major league level - and you think he's going to be a .750 ops player? He's an all- star catcher if he does that with his defense. I really hope you are right.

 

[joe dokes]

I'm sorry, but Vasquez is currently sporting a .562 ops; has never had a year at any level where he has been over .775 ops at any level; and always has had questions about whether he could hit enough at the major league level - and you think he's going to be a .750 ops player? He's an all- star catcher if he does that with his defense. I really hope you are right.

 
With 693 as the MLB average OPS for catchers this year, his defense would probably support a 650-675 range.

 

[jscola85]

I'm sorry, but Vasquez is currently sporting a .562 ops; has never had a year at any level where he has been over .775 ops at any level; and always has had questions about whether he could hit enough at the major league level - and you think he's going to be a .750 ops player? He's an all- star catcher if he does that with his defense. I really hope you are right.

 
Not to keep pounding on this comparison, but Yadier Molina never hit for more than a .759 OPS in his minor league career and for the first seven years in the majors was never above .749.  As an alternative example, Jason Varitek never hit for better than .772 in the minors before becoming a plus MLB hitter as a catcher.
 
There's so much a catcher has to learn in the minors and even his first few years in the pro's.  If Vazquez can even tread water for a .650 OPS the next few years as he continues to work on defense and his relationship with the pitchers, I trust at some point he will develop into at least a decent contact hitter.  I don't see the power with him as he's only 5-9 and seems to have more of a slashing swing than one that can generate real loft, but in his prime years (27-31), there's no reason to think he couldn't eventually hit something like .280/.325/.390, which coupled with his defense is likely an All Star, 4- or 5-win player.

 

[IdiotKicker]

I'm sorry, but Vasquez is currently sporting a .562 ops; has never had a year at any level where he has been over .775 ops at any level; and always has had questions about whether he could hit enough at the major league level - and you think he's going to be a .750 ops player? He's an all- star catcher if he does that with his defense. I really hope you are right.

 
No, I said he might have a few career years where he did that.  I think he'll be "somewhere in the ballpark of .250/.320/.350 over the next couple of years".

 

[Plympton91]

 
Not to keep pounding on this comparison, but Yadier Molina never hit for more than a .759 OPS in his minor league career and for the first seven years in the majors was never above .749.  As an alternative example, Jason Varitek never hit for better than .772 in the minors before becoming a plus MLB hitter as a catcher.
 
There's so much a catcher has to learn in the minors and even his first few years in the pro's.  If Vazquez can even tread water for a .650 OPS the next few years as he continues to work on defense and his relationship with the pitchers, I trust at some point he will develop into at least a decent contact hitter.  I don't see the power with him as he's only 5-9 and seems to have more of a slashing swing than one that can generate real loft, but in his prime years (27-31), there's no reason to think he couldn't eventually hit something like .280/.325/.390, which coupled with his defense is likely an All Star, 4- or 5-win player.

In addition, Vazquez was always age appropriate for a position prospect, and that probably translates to a year or two ahead of pace for a catcher. So, there's no reason to think he couldn't match his minor league OPS in the majors as he gets comfortable and into his prime.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

OPS isn't that important for Vazquez anyway. He just needs to not be an automatic out at the plate. If he can have an OBP over .300, then he can be a really solid player, no matter what his slugging percentage is.
 
He could even have an OPS of around 660 and still be a good starting player, if it's a 330 OBP/330 SLG, rather than a 280 OBP/380 SLG. 
 
Basically, if he can't get the OBP over .300, then he is still Jose Molina, who is a really useful part-time catcher whose defense makes up for a lot of the bad hitting. That's basically who he is right now, as a rookie who just turned 24 last week.
 
If he could just improve enough to hit like Brad Ausmus, 251/325/344, then he would be a very solid starting catcher, despite the 670 OPS.
 
It's encouraging that he's got 10 walks to 16 Ks so far, hopefully he can keep that up.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

OPS isn't that important for Vazquez anyway. He just needs to not be an automatic out at the plate. If he can have an OBP over .300, then he can be a really solid player, no matter what his slugging percentage is.
 
He could even have an OPS of around 660 and still be a good starting player, if it's a 330 OBP/330 SLG, rather than a 280 OBP/380 SLG. 
 
Basically, if he can't get the OBP over .300, then he is still Jose Molina, who is a really useful part-time catcher whose defense makes up for a lot of the bad hitting. That's basically who he is right now, as a rookie who just turned 24 last week.
 
If he could just improve enough to hit like Brad Ausmus, 251/325/344, then he would be a very solid starting catcher, despite the 670 OPS.
 
It's encouraging that he's got 10 walks to 16 Ks so far, hopefully he can keep that up.

Christian has also been a guy who takes a little time to adjust to levels.  He started slow at AAA and then started becoming the good average/good OBP/ low slugging hitter that he has shown through out the minors.
 
His approach seems sold, his fundamentals look the part.  Honestly, the eye says he's alot better than his numbers, and with the sample size that isn't an insane opinion.

 

[Rovin Romine]

It can't be overstated that he's 24.   As a 22yr old he OPS'd .771 in AA.   At 23, it was .721 at AAA.  

 

[Reggie's Racquet]

The snap throw on a tough pitch to handle to pick off Melky in last night's game was a thing of beauty.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/93286772/blue-jays-left-fielder-melky-cabrera-out-for-season-with-fractured-right-pinkie-finger

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

He is still allowing far too many pass balls though .. The one last night cost a run. From what I recall reading he also had this tendency in the minors?

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

He is still allowing far too many pass balls though .. The one last night cost a run. From what I recall reading he also had this tendency in the minors?

 
Probably the flip-side risk of his framing skills.  Holding still long enough to coax a ball into the ump's strikezone also means not moving the body into a good position to block the ball.  By the time a missed-location pitch hits the dirt, it's too late to react to a bad bounce.
 
As an aside, does Brooks Baseball or TexasLeaguers or any other pitch-by-pitch site have easily-accessible data quantiifying pitch type for passed balls?  Cross-referencing between different databases could be done, of course, but I'm not that bored.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Probably the flip-side risk of his framing skills.  Holding still long enough to coax a ball into the ump's strikezone also means not moving the body into a good position to block the ball.  By the time a missed-location pitch hits the dirt, it's too late to react to a bad bounce.
 
As an aside, does Brooks Baseball or TexasLeaguers or any other pitch-by-pitch site have easily-accessible data quantiifying pitch type for passed balls?  Cross-referencing between different databases could be done, of course, but I'm not that bored.

Very well could be the case. The ones I can remember weren't particularly difficult chances .. Not marginal WPs

 

[oumbi]

I could not find a listing for catchers picking opposing players off first base. So, I settled for a few defensive stats to provide a little more context to our very own Vazquez's sss performance.
 
Eliminating players who have fewer games than Vazquez to reduce the noise, in terms of stolen base percentage Vazquez comes in second in baseball, trailing only Y. Molina and ahead of Rupp of Philly. Here are some of his stats using Y. Molina for comparison.
 
(Warning: I am quite aware of many of the limitations and volatility of these stats in a sss, but it is best I could find and simply wish to add a few talking points to an interesting conversation, not to answer [SIZE=14.2857141494751px]definitively [/SIZE]the questions contained herein.)
 
OVOV (Our Very Own Vazquez)
Games  Innings  Assists  Errors  SB  CS  SB%  PB  Fielding%
  39        337.1     24           4         11    10   . 524    5     .985
 
Y. Molina
[SIZE=14.2857141494751px]Games  Innings  Assists  Errors  SB  CS  SB%  PB  Fielding %[/SIZE]
  90         783        51          2          19    20    . 487   2      .997
 
For a tad more context, 3 catchers have allowed 12 PB each as tops in the majors, two of these catchers have 700+ innings, one has 574.
 
Two catchers have 13 errors this season, one of whom is Salty. (Salty errors came in 810 innings, Montero's in 1041 innings)
 
Two catchers have more than 70 assists, each with pretty close to 800 innings.

 

[Jnai]

 
Probably the flip-side risk of his framing skills.  Holding still long enough to coax a ball into the ump's strikezone also means not moving the body into a good position to block the ball.  By the time a missed-location pitch hits the dirt, it's too late to react to a bad bounce.
 
As an aside, does Brooks Baseball or TexasLeaguers or any other pitch-by-pitch site have easily-accessible data quantiifying pitch type for passed balls?  Cross-referencing between different databases could be done, of course, but I'm not that bored.

We have a model of pbwp blocking available on BP.

The best way we've found to measure this is to extrapolate the ground contact location of each pitch.

 

[derekson]

 
Probably the flip-side risk of his framing skills.  Holding still long enough to coax a ball into the ump's strikezone also means not moving the body into a good position to block the ball.  By the time a missed-location pitch hits the dirt, it's too late to react to a bad bounce.
 
As an aside, does Brooks Baseball or TexasLeaguers or any other pitch-by-pitch site have easily-accessible data quantiifying pitch type for passed balls?  Cross-referencing between different databases could be done, of course, but I'm not that bored.

 
I think this is almost certainly true. If you watch Jose Molina, the king of pitch framing, you'll see he also allows a lot of passed balls, sometimes on pitches that wouldn't be tough to block. It's just an inevitable tradeoff for setting up to receive the ball the way these guys do in order to steal strike calls. It seems like many of them get scored as wild pitches though, possibly because they look less like passed balls when a guy isn't even in a position to block it and it just goes right by? I think we all know that the distinction between passed ball and wild pitch isn't exactly a truly meaningful one.

 

[Jnai]

 
I think this is almost certainly true. If you watch Jose Molina, the king of pitch framing, you'll see he also allows a lot of passed balls, sometimes on pitches that wouldn't be tough to block. It's just an inevitable tradeoff for setting up to receive the ball the way these guys do in order to steal strike calls. It seems like many of them get scored as wild pitches though, possibly because they look less like passed balls when a guy isn't even in a position to block it and it just goes right by? I think we all know that the distinction between passed ball and wild pitch isn't exactly a truly meaningful one.

 
For 2014 and guys with at least 2000 framing opps, there is a .02 r2 between our estimated framing runs and blocking runs.
 
Also, the spread in framing runs is approx 6x times the spread in blocking runs.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

For 2014 and guys with at least 2000 framing opps, there is a .02 r2 between our estimated framing runs and blocking runs.
 
Also, the spread in framing runs is approx 6x times the spread in blocking runs.

Care to elaborate in English ?

 

[Jnai]

Care to elaborate in English ?

 
The post I was replying to suggested that there was some relationship between how well a guy framed pitches and how well a guy blocked pitches.
 
There is not, according to our model of each.
 
 
---------------------
A correlation is usually expressed as an R or R-squared (r2) value. R goes from -1 to 1 and is a relationship between whether one variable predicts the other. For example, in higher temperatures, there's more ice cream sales.

 

[derekson]

 
The post I was replying to suggested that there was some relationship between how well a guy framed pitches and how well a guy blocked pitches.
 
There is not, according to our model of each.
 
 
---------------------
A correlation is usually expressed as an R or R-squared (r2) value. R goes from -1 to 1 and is a relationship between whether one variable predicts the other. For example, in higher temperatures, there's more ice cream sales.

 
Interesting that there isn't any correlation over the entire data set. I wonder if perhaps it is rather than a general trend just something specific to the technique that Molina and Vazquez both seem to use. Vazquez's framing technique looks like he's completely modeled himself after Jose Molina to my eyes. FWIW, I recall reading that Vazquez works out with the Molina brothers in Puerto Rico in the offseason, or has at least the last few years. 
 
Molina framing:
 

 
Vazquez:
 

 

[joe dokes]

 
Probably the flip-side risk of his framing skills.  Holding still long enough to coax a ball into the ump's strikezone also means not moving the body into a good position to block the ball.  By the time a missed-location pitch hits the dirt, it's too late to react to a bad bounce.
 
 

 
Probably not a bad approach.  I wouldn't begin to know where or how to analyze this, but my guess is that there are many many more pitches that are frame-able into strikes than there are pitches that he misses or mishandles by waiting a bit longer to see of it's frame-able. 
 
I wonder if he takes the game situation into account.....as with a runner on third, he won't be quite as aggressive in his waiting-to-frame?

 

[Night of the Keyboard]

The fact that CV is putting the ball in play is not a guarantee that BABIP will come around in his favor.  I haven't seen a lot of his ABs, but there have been many weak grounders and lazy flyballs.  Bob Boone and Tony Pena rarely struckout, but put up career OPS of .661 and .673, respectivley.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Bob Boone and Tony Pena rarely struckout, but put up career OPS of .661 and .673, respectivley.

 
As cautionary examples, these are comfortingly ineffective.

 

[Dahabenzapple2]

 
As cautionary examples, these are comfortingly ineffective.

In other words, we sign for that in an instant for Vasquez

 

[Night of the Keyboard]

OK. Maybe the Pena and Boone numbers are good enough, but it hardly resolves the Ginger/Mary Ann debate between him and Swihart.

 

[Stan Papi Was Framed]

OK. Maybe the Pena and Boone numbers are good enough, but it hardly resolves the Ginger/Mary Ann debate between him and Swihart.

ha!  why not let it play out?  as we've unfortunately been reminded, not every prospect pans out (or, at the least, it may take time).  Swihart likely needs a full season in Pawtucket, so this may not even be an issue til 2016.  Doesn't seem essential to resolve now.

 

[Plympton91]

Do they really consider going into 2015 with Vazquez as the #1 catcher and hoping that either he hits above 600 OPS or Swihart develops rapidly enough to start taking more than half the at bats? To me the best place for both of them would be back at Pawtucket splitting catcher and DH. Or maybe Vazquez playing a platoon + 1 starter role in the majors, taking advantage of the fact that he hits lefties at a passable level and his defense vs. righties once in a while being a decent tradeoff. But they really are still short a starting catcher for 2015, in my book.

 

[Rasputin]

ha!  why not let it play out?  as we've unfortunately been reminded, not every prospect pans out (or, at the least, it may take time).  Swihart likely needs a full season in Pawtucket, so this may not even be an issue til 2016.  Doesn't seem essential to resolve now.

 
Or ever. We need two catchers and keeping them both would be deep depth, no?
 

Do they really consider going into 2015 with Vazquez as the #1 catcher and hoping that either he hits above 600 OPS or Swihart develops rapidly enough to start taking more than half the at bats? To me the best place for both of them would be back at Pawtucket splitting catcher and DH. Or maybe Vazquez playing a platoon + 1 starter role in the majors, taking advantage of the fact that he hits lefties at a passable level and his defense vs. righties once in a while being a decent tradeoff. But they really are still short a starting catcher for 2015, in my book.

 
Well, they were willing to go into 2014 with Bradley as the CF and Bogaerts the SS.

 

[JimBoSox9]

Do they really consider going into 2015 with Vazquez as the #1 catcher and hoping that either he hits above 600 OPS or Swihart develops rapidly enough to start taking more than half the at bats? To me the best place for both of them would be back at Pawtucket splitting catcher and DH. Or maybe Vazquez playing a platoon + 1 starter role in the majors, taking advantage of the fact that he hits lefties at a passable level and his defense vs. righties once in a while being a decent tradeoff. But they really are still short a starting catcher for 2015, in my book.

 
Absolutely not, familiarity and reps are too important at the position.  The maximum value 2015 for Vazquez is getting 1,000 or so innings catching MLB Red Sox pitching.  To gain that, you ought to be willing to assume the risk that his bat craters to the is-it-hurting-his-development mental level.  You like to say the Sox should act like a big market team; papering over his possibly-sub-replacement-level in the 9 hole by going the extra with their resources to upgrade somewhere else 1-8.  Maybe Castillo, maybe more.  
 
The Sox are going to be breaking in a lot of freshmen and sophomore pitchers next year.  That writing's on the wall.  Those 1,000 innings will be invaluable for the 2016 title run.

 

[KillerBs]

I suppose they could give Ross another year to mentor Vazquez, but you would hope they could do better than that. Ideally I think you bring in a guy to split PT with Vazquez for 1 year who won't suck and won't expect to play everyday. Hard to find.
 
Couple potential options: Nick Hundley who Balt has a 5m 2015 team option on, likely not to be exercised I would think;  and, Jaso as a trade target who might be getting too expensive in arb for Oakland, given Norris and Vogt's presence. Jaso would surely cost a bit in players. I doubt that cost would justify the return of 300 2015 ABs from Jaso.
 
20/20 hindsight: Dioner Navarro was the perfect fit last off season. Signed for 2 years at the same cost of one year of AJP.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Why not have Lavarnway be the guy who starts 40 or so games at catcher and is a solid OBP bat on the bench the rest of the time? Seems like it would make more sense than spending money for a part-time catcher who probably won't hit any better than Vazquez. 

 

[threecy]

Why not have Lavarnway be the guy who starts 40 or so games at catcher and is a solid OBP bat on the bench the rest of the time? Seems like it would make more sense than spending money for a part-time catcher who probably won't hit any better than Vazquez. 

 
Lavarnway has yet to prove he can hit at the major league level (career .577 OPS).  One could argue that his offensive production has regressed in AAA.

 

[Sprowl]

 
Lavarnway has yet to prove he can hit at the major league level (career .577 OPS).  One could argue that his offensive production has regressed in AAA.

 
Lavarnway was a one-year wonder, and 2011 is a long time ago.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Lavarnway has a .389 OBP in 257 PAs in AAA this year, that is pretty damn good for a backup catcher. 2457 career minor league PAs with a .375 OBP. He hasn't translated it to the majors yet, although the last time he had more than 4 at-bats in the majors, it did translate pretty well, as he hit 299/329/429 in 82 at-bats in 2013.
 
I doubt they will find anyone more likely to have a decent OBP to be a backup catcher next year. If they bring back Ross, they better expect him to hit something like .170 with not many walks, though he might run into about 5 homers again in between all the outs he makes. And he could well do worse than that, since he's ancient and has concussion issues. Other backup catchers will probably be automatic outs at the plate too, that's why they are backups.
 
With a defense-first catcher starting 120 games next year, a backup starting 40 games who might get on base decently and not be an automatic out would seem like a nice change of pace to have around, especially since Lavarnway would have no acquisition cost and would make the minimum.
 
I would give Lavarnway a shot to be the backup catcher next year but I don't think the Red Sox will do that. But not because of his bat. They just don't like his defense, and that will be the reason they dump him. I don't really trust their evaluation of catcher defense at this point, after they decided last offseason that Pierzynski was acceptable defensively.

 

[Plympton91]

I'm not even sure that "they" is the correct pronoun. Franconia and Valentine both had no problem putting Lavarnway behind the plate. John Farrell obviously disagrees. I hope that is based on John Farrell watching him catch at some point in 2013-2014, and not based on what John Farrell remembers him being like in minor league camp in 2009 and 2010.

I like the idea of trying to trade for Jaso. They could probably get him for one of the 5th starter candidates and that seems like a fair price.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I'm not even sure that "they" is the correct pronoun. Franconia and Valentine both had no problem putting Lavarnway behind the plate. John Farrell obviously disagrees. I hope that is based on John Farrell watching him catch at some point in 2013-2014, and not based on what John Farrell remembers him being like in minor league camp in 2009 and 2010.

I like the idea of trying to trade for Jaso. They could probably get him for one of the 5th starter candidates and that seems like a fair price.

Francona had no problem putting Lavarnway behind the plate for a total of 26 innings.
 
Farrell put him behind the plate for 164 innings last year.

 

[KillerBs]

Lavarnway has only caught in 15 of his 62 games in Pawtucket this year. It would mean a major reversal of direction for the Sox to go back to Lavarnway as a C option on the ML roster next year. If the Sox thought he could pass as a ML catcher defensively, I could see him as a possibility for the back up role next year, but it seems clear they don't. His bat doesn't look good enough to carry what the Sox seem to accept is a seriously sub par glove. I suppose they could send him to winter ball to catch and hope/claim next March he is a new man behind the plate.  

 

[Plympton91]

Francona had no problem putting Lavarnway behind the plate for a total of 26 innings.
 
Farrell put him behind the plate for 164 innings last year.

And which innings were those? Out of how many days on the roster? What were the alternatives?

 

[Al Zarilla]

Why not have Lavarnway be the guy who starts 40 or so games at catcher and is a solid OBP bat on the bench the rest of the time? Seems like it would make more sense than spending money for a part-time catcher who probably won't hit any better than Vazquez. 

If you're talking John Jaso, he has a lifetime .758 OPS. 
 
With the dearth of offensive players the A's appear to have now, maybe they need him more than we do. He's 2nd-Year Arb Eligible, 1 yr/$2.3M. That's cheap, isn't it?