He's already matched his 2022 total of 1.1 bWAR. A 6 WAR season is Mookie territory. We can dream.He's on a 6 WAR pace this season, but let's say he ends up around 4 WAR.
He's already matched his 2022 total of 1.1 bWAR. A 6 WAR season is Mookie territory. We can dream.He's on a 6 WAR pace this season, but let's say he ends up around 4 WAR.
If he does conservatively reach 4 fWAR, he will have provided 71 mill of value over the life of his tenure for a total cost of 11 mill. Whether people really care about winning the value game or not, he has been productive. If he's a building block, they can't afford to let him go. Otherwise they are wasting a chance to lock him up as a relative bargain over a competitive window where every dollar could count to stay in contention.He's already matched his 2022 total of 1.1 bWAR. A 6 WAR season is Mookie territory. We can dream.
I don’t know how to combine his July-end-of-season ‘22 through his ‘23 season up to date but the combination is at least something to consider in his contract, no?This may sound a little “he gives you a different look” of me, but Doogie has one skill I think has been highly valued by Sox brass over the years which is that he is not intimidated by Boston. This season, 2021 and even for a stretch last year when they were flirting with not being terrible, he has shown a flair for the big moment and, I think, keeps things loose in a clubhouse that has a tendency to get a little tight at times.
Hard to quantify but my guess is that Bloom, Cora et al appreciate this about Verdugo.
This. At least wait until he actually makes an All Star team first.I don't think that the right time to sign a player is after a 1.1 WAR year, nor is it the best time to sign him after a 1.1 WAR month.
Well the general idea of the DH being a rotating position rather than a reserved player there would still work fine. Going forward, if Cedanne can make the leap to ML (those K's are worrisome) and Duran can continue hitting it isn't a stretch to imagine a trade somewhere to help other weak spots out.... that said if Yorke continues to play well and Casas can get it figured out (I'm optimistic on both) then it really creates some great situations for the long term and looking to add pitching only via FA or trades.Let's see how the rest of the season plays out and see what kind of shape he is in at the start of spring training next year. If he has a good full season and shows up in good shape again and running as fast as he is this year, then it makes sense to think about extending him for a few more seasons.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/alex-verdugo-657077?stats=statcast-r-running-mlb
Here's his statcast percentile for sprint speed since he's been with the Red Sox:
2020: 68th
2021: 52nd
2022: 38th
2023: 55th
Cora called him out publicly after last season and challenged him to get in better shape, and he did. He's clearly running faster this year, and needs every bit of his footspeed to be able to play RF in Fenway. But as he gets older, how many more years will he be able to stay in RF? If he had to move to LF, then Yoshida would have to DH most of the time and you'd still need to find another RF. Not optimal.
Agreed....plus he is an emerging leader in the clubhouse. Isn't that the type of guy you want around to help guide the prospect waive in the right direction?Alex Verdugo's OBP since 2018 season: .329, .342, .367, .351, .328, .373 (in 30 games this season)...this is what Bloom and Cora are trying to build here, guys that put up good at bats, get on base, move the line, get into the other teams bullpen. He is 27 yrs old. He can hit anywhere from 1-6 in the lineup. He has a flair for the dramatic. He is an average to above average defensive outfielder. This is a guy that you extend.
SUMMARY | WAR | AB | H | HR | BA | R | RBI | SB | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ |
2023 | 1.2 | 122 | 38 | 5 | 0.311 | 24 | 18 | 2 | 0.373 | 0.508 | 0.881 | 138 |
Career | 9.7 | 1903 | 548 | 49 | 0.288 | 278 | 219 | 17 | 0.343 | 0.436 | 0.779 | 109 |
Career | 21.2 | 3627 | 995 | 137 | 0.274 | 579 | 555 | 30 | 0.364 | 0.464 | 0.828 | 112 |
A strong arm does not necessarily equal a good arm. Accuracy and decision making matter too. Per Fangraphs/UZR, over his career, Verdugo has "saved" more runs with his arm in LF (7.9) and CF (1.6) than he has in RF (-3.0). At least some of that has to be credited to playing left field in Fenway where he (and anyone else playing out there) benefits from being so close to the infield. Whatever his arm strength brings for him, it hasn't netted out to a positive when he plays right field.I see all the complaints about Verdugo’s arm, but baseballsavant has his arm strength as anywhere from great to elite every year of his career. Is that measurement inaccurate for some reason? I can’t find info on how long it takes to normalize or if it’s a good indicator of a players actual arm
I think there is something to what was said upthread -- he seems not to be intimidated by playing here and seems to be good in the clubhouse. I think Cora recognized those things, and that's why he challenged him to be a better player with those qualities.I think his best use is as a leadoff hitter.
If he could hit like Nixon did during his peak, that would be a huge win....though he needs to up both his OBP and power numbers. Verdugo hasn't shown quite the power that Nixon did even during his age 25/26 seasons before he peaked....Nixon had ISO of .202 and .185 respectively those two seasons while Verdugo was .169 and .138 respectively. Verdugo did have a .181 ISO for LA in 2019 though, so maybe he has some .200+ seasons in him....but it's now or never really. Most guys don't bust out after 27-28.Here's '23 and Career:
SUMMARY WAR AB H HR BA R RBI SB OBP SLG OPS OPS+ 2023 1.2 122 38 5 0.311 24 18 2 0.373 0.508 0.881 138 Career 9.7 1903 548 49 0.288 278 219 17 0.343 0.436 0.779 109
If I squint and don't look at his arm, I can see this guy (clubhouse leader, embraces the Boston environment, accepts key spots)
Trot Nixon
Career 21.2 3627 995 137 0.274 579 555 30 0.364 0.464 0.828 112
Trot Nixon's home run power came in essentially 3 years - Age 27, 28 and 29. Those three years drove Trot's HR and OPS and OPS + career numbers. Not sure if Dugie has that in him, but age 27 was when Nixon exploded.
Dugie has a little Dirt Dog in him. When he was acquired, Trot Nixon would have been an awesome "upside" comp.
Sorry for the formatting.
Dugie did have 39 doubles last year in what many consider to be a down year for him. Maybe some of those will turn into HR. I'd be happy with 20-24 HR and 35-40 doubles out of him with a .285-.300 BA and .340-.360 OBPIf he could hit like Nixon did during his peak, that would be a huge win....though he needs to up both his OBP and power numbers. Verdugo hasn't shown quite the power that Nixon did even during his age 25/26 seasons before he peaked....Nixon had ISO of .202 and .185 respectively those two seasons while Verdugo was .169 and .138 respectively. Verdugo did have a .181 ISO for LA in 2019 though, so maybe he has some .200+ seasons in him....but it's now or never really. Most guys don't bust out after 27-28.
OTOH, I don't think Verdugo will ever have the plate discipline Nixon had. Verdugo has been super consistent walking around 7-8% of his PAs. Nixon consistently hovered around 12%. Doogie does hit for a bit better average so he can make up some of that gap, but it would be nice if he upped his walk rate a couple more percentage points.
Still, even "Nixon-lite" would be a very solid player for several years here in Fenway. Something like a .290/.350/.450 type hitter.
Im not a wizard at advanced stats so the ISO numbers you cite might kind of nip the following point in the bud, but I thought it worth mentioning that the average OPS amongst all of baseball in 2004 was .763, in 2022 it was down to .706. So Verdugo's career .779 OPS, relative to the league average, seems pretty in line with Trots career ops?If he could hit like Nixon did during his peak, that would be a huge win....though he needs to up both his OBP and power numbers. Verdugo hasn't shown quite the power that Nixon did even during his age 25/26 seasons before he peaked....Nixon had ISO of .202 and .185 respectively those two seasons while Verdugo was .169 and .138 respectively. Verdugo did have a .181 ISO for LA in 2019 though, so maybe he has some .200+ seasons in him....but it's now or never really. Most guys don't bust out after 27-28.
OTOH, I don't think Verdugo will ever have the plate discipline Nixon had. Verdugo has been super consistent walking around 7-8% of his PAs. Nixon consistently hovered around 12%. Doogie does hit for a bit better average so he can make up some of that gap, but it would be nice if he upped his walk rate a couple more percentage points.
Still, even "Nixon-lite" would be a very solid player for several years here in Fenway. Something like a .290/.350/.450 type hitter.
OPS+ is the stat you're looking for in terms of relative to league average.Im not a wizard at advanced stats so the ISO numbers you cite might kind of nip the following point in the bud, but I thought it worth mentioning that the average OPS amongst all of baseball in 2004 was .763, in 2022 it was down to .706. So Verdugo's career .779 OPS, relative to the league average, seems pretty in line with Trots career ops?
Ok, thanks. So that takes into account the, erm, shall we say "external factors" that may or may not have contributed towards Trot's OPS...Kidding aside, the 138 OPS+ Verdugo is currently sporting might not last, worth noting his post ASB last year OPS+ was 128 per bbref. Combining that split with this year, we've got a 100 game-ish sample size of production above Nixon's peak.OPS+ is the stat you're looking for in terms of relative to league average.
Nixon at his peak ('99-'05) had a 119 OPS+ and a career OPS+ of 112. Verdugo has a 110 OPS+ in his time in Boston, 109 overall. They're close, but Dugie isn't quite Nixon at his best, at least not yet.
From your keyboard to God's ears/eyes. Anything close to Nixon from here on would be quite a career and a great long term addition to the team.OPS+ is the stat you're looking for in terms of relative to league average.
Nixon at his peak ('99-'05) had a 119 OPS+ and a career OPS+ of 112. Verdugo has a 110 OPS+ in his time in Boston, 109 overall. They're close, but Dugie isn't quite Nixon at his best, at least not yet.
For what it's worth, Nixon had a 149 OPS+ for the 2003 season (134 games). If we're going to compare Verdugo's last twelve months or so to Nixon, that's probably what we should be looking at as his true peak. I probably should have classified Nixon's '99-05 stretch as his prime rather than his peak.Ok, thanks. So that takes into account the, erm, shall we say "external factors" that may or may not have contributed towards Trot's OPS...Kidding aside, the 138 OPS+ Verdugo is currently sporting might not last, worth noting his post ASB last year OPS+ was 128 per bbref. Combining that split with this year, we've got a 100 game-ish sample size of production above Nixon's peak.
Someone can check my math (or find a page that has actual league ISO), but eyeballing B-reference, it looks like ISO has been pretty consistent since the late-1990s outside of a bit of a dip in the deadball years 2013-2014. The higher OPS during the late 1990s-early 2000s was fueled by much higher batting averages rather than isolated power. I do note that the walk rates have come down a bit since those years, so the gap between Doogie and Nixon on walk rate might not be quite as big as it seems on the raw numbers....the league walks less as a whole now.Im not a wizard at advanced stats so the ISO numbers you cite might kind of nip the following point in the bud, but I thought it worth mentioning that the average OPS amongst all of baseball in 2004 was .763, in 2022 it was down to .706. So Verdugo's career .779 OPS, relative to the league average, seems pretty in line with Trots career ops?
If Verdugo peaks even at 80-85% of Nixon's peak for a few years (say 115-120 OPS+ with maybe a single-season high in the 130 range), I think we'd all sign on the dotted line.For what it's worth, Nixon had a 149 OPS+ for the 2003 season (134 games). If we're going to compare Verdugo's last twelve months or so to Nixon, that's probably what we should be looking at as his true peak. I probably should have classified Nixon's '99-05 stretch as his prime rather than his peak.
He doesn't have a weak arm, he was a pitching prospect in HS who could throw 97 mph. Doesn't necessarily translate to having a cannon for an outfielder, but he's no Johnny Damon.I know it’s not all about arm, I just see comments specifically about Verdugo having a weak arm. It’s possible I’ve seen complaints about his throws and just assumed it was a complaint about the strength of the throw, rather than the aim or decision making
It appeared to be an innocuous ground ball to second base, leading off the bottom of the first inning. But one Kolten Wong bobble, and an all-out sprint down the first base line by Alex Verdugo served as the tone-setter for what ultimately would evolve into a 9-4 Red Sox win over the Mariners.
Verdugo reached. Two pitches later Masa Yoshida tripled. The Red Sox were on their way to snapping what had become a four-game losing streak.
But what most didn’t realize that Verdugo had actually served as the message-sender two hours earlier, well before a pitch was thrown. That was thanks to something the 27-year-old had never done in his professional life - call a players-only meeting.
“It was a good meeting. Verdugo led it. It was great,” explained Red Sox outfielder Rob Refnsyder.
“I think the message was good. … I just know from my perspective, it’s cool to see Alex taking on that leadership role. I think he has done a great job, especially leading off. He busted his ass going down to first base and set the tone really early. It was great. From my perspective, it was great seeing Verdugo take that next step as a leader. We have team meetings all the time, but Verdugo led this one. It was good.”
The evolution of Verdugo as major leaguer has been on display for all to see throughout this young season, with the most recent example coming with his two-hit, three-run night that boosted the outfielder’s batting average (.303) and OPS (.869).
But this get-together was the next evolution of Verdugo’s existence, a step that might have been one of his most difficult yet.
More at the WEEI link above.
“Really most of it, it was just … After the few games that we had, everybody has kind of been seeing it. We all kind of felt it. We all know and aware of our own actions. For me, talking to a couple of veterans, JT (Justin Turner), (Chris) Sale and Carita (Rafael Devers), just wanted to get a little players’ meeting going today. Just to get a conversation going with the guys. It wasn’t about anything bad or anything specific. It was just, ‘Win or lose, boys, let’s go out and bring the energy.’ Let’s not get down. Let’s not put the pressure on us. Let’s root for the guys in front of you and behind you and get on the same page of just playing the ball, man. The whole year we have played it hasn’t been just one game carrying the team. It has been everybody contributing. Everybody firing and helping out.
"For me, it was the first time I had ever called for a players’ meeting or anything like that so I was obviously pretty nervous at first. But I think the guys really liked it and I think everything was good. Like I said, just some in-house stuff. We’re with each other a lot so I felt like we should be able to speak up and talk to each other as a team. Just kind of right this ship a little bit.
“You think about it a little bit, but at the same time you don’t really want to really press too much when you’re on a little bit of a losing thing. Then guys start feeling like, ‘We’re stressed and we’re really grinding.’ It’s still very early for us. I just felt that today was just a little reminder. Just a reminder for all of us, me included. We just have to play the game hard. Bust out of the box and force some action. I think today, grounding to second and busting out and seeing a little bobble and I’m safe. Guys in the dugout are on the front step, fired up and yelling. It sets the tone and gets everybody fired up and ready to contribute. It’s something like that. Nothing too crazy. We have a really good group of guys here, from the veterans to the rookies. I really enjoy this team. It’s one of those ones where we have to police ourselves and get out of being sensitive about it. Everybody should be able to have a voice on this team. If you see something or notice something, don’t be afraid to say it. Let’s talk about it and let’s get this thing going.”
The meeting took place just after batting practice, with Verdugo calling the group together early in the 5 o’clock hour.
Anytime!Thanks for posting. I love seeing this out of him. He really seems to have reached the next level as not only a player, but a teammate, too, and I think that is really bleeding over into the team's play.
Off the bat, it looked like the most routine of routine outs. Yet Alex Verdugo wasn’t taking his broken-bat bouncer to second for granted.
Leading off the bottom of the first, Verdugo busted out of the box after rolling over on a changeup from Mariners starter Luis Castillo. According to MLB.com’s Statcast, he reached a top speed of 28.6 feet per second, with a 4.33 second home-to-first time that ranked as his seventh fastest of the season.
“I wanted to set the tone. I didn’t like the way I ran down the line [Monday],” said Verdugo. “One thing I can always control is my effort level and the hustling. So today I broke my bat and I was just like, ‘[Forget] it.’ Just take out the frustration by running down the line. When you run hard, when you just play the game hard, the game rewards you.”
In this case, the reward came with a tiny bobble by Seattle second baseman Kolten Wong. Verdugo narrowly beat the throw to reach on an error. Castillo immediately had to pitch out of the stretch and was on his heels. The Red Sox quickly capitalized with a four-run lightning strike in the first to take a 4-0 lead
Dugey put the pressure on the opposition right away and set the tempo for the game, busting his behind to first,” noted Sox manager Alex Cora.
But the Sox bats soon feel silent, enduring an 0-for-11 stretch that permitted the Mariners to tie the contest, 4-4. But in the bottom of the fifth, Verdugo reignited the Red Sox lineup by slamming a double off the wall in left for a double to kickstart a three-run inning that propelled the Sox to a comfortable 9-4 victory.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/05/16/sports/alex-verdugo-has-seen-his-fair-share-criticism-hes-finally-tapping-into-his-full-potential-red-sox/In 2022, Verdugo suggested that he might have been out on the game-opening play.
“I’m just in better shape,” he acknowledged. “Last year, I was a little bit heavier. And then in the first series here against Minnesota, I fractured my [right big toe on a foul ball]. I really was just pushing through it a lot. So this year, I just trained differently, got leaner, just did a lot more legs and a lot more running. So now I just feel like it’s just easier to kind of go. It’s easier to sprint.”
That improved fitness has shown up in the form of a faster player (his sprint speed, as measured by Statcast, has improved from the 38th to the 52nd percentile) and improved outfield play, where he grades as one of the better right fielders in the game after registering below-average defensive numbers in left in 2022.
Health has been a key driver of Verdugo’s improved performance — yet the outfielder (who turned 27 on Monday) also suggests that after years of doubts about his maturity and commitment, he’s driven to silence those doubts.
At the end of last season, Cora publicly identified Verdugo as a player who hadn’t tapped into his full potential. The suggestion fueled Verdugo over the offseason.
“I want to show people, ‘Hey, I’m working hard, I’m running hard. I’m playing the game hard,’” said Verdugo. “[Cora’s assessment] was just [expletive] that sparked a fire in me. I don’t like any type of negative thing where people feel like I could do more. So I just said, ‘Screw it. This year, I’m just gonna bring it. Whether the results are there or not, we can control the way we work. We can control the way we hustle.’ For me, it just was kind of a conscious thing in the offseason.”
And Verdugo has matured as a player/teammate since he was acquired. I recall one of the criticisms of verdugo was his maturity back then.This team does not quit. Seems like Verdugo is a huge part of that.
Actually, it was much worse than that. Many on this board pretty much said he shouldn't be allowed to play baseball and the Red Sox were a disgusting organization for acquiring him.And Verdugo has matured as a player/teammate since he was acquired. I recall one of the criticisms of verdugo was his maturity back then.
Based on his actions when he was in the minor leagues, those were reasonable reactions.Actually, it was much worse than that. Many on this board pretty much said he shouldn't be allowed to play baseball and the Red Sox were a disgusting organization for acquiring him.
I've seen him as a next-gen Trot Nixon. Maybe that's a lazy comparison. But if he can give us another 4-5 years with plus production, like Trot did from age 27-32, I think we'd all be happy.Obviously he's nowhere near Pedroia's value at the same age, but I do get a similar vibe from Dugie in terms of his approach, his clubhouse presence, how he carries himself, etc. And maybe I'm off base but also like Pedroia he strikes me as the kind of guy who'd be willing to take at least a bit of a discount to lock in a longer-term contract here.
There was an incident in which no criminal charges were brough against Verdugo and involved conflicting testimonies when he as 19 years old. Saying your reaction, which was one of the strongest on this board, was reasonable is incredibly disingenuous.Based on his actions when he was in the minor leagues, those were reasonable reactions.
He seems to have matured. His effort has never been in question. And most importantly he's playing much better this year than in previous ones. It's good to see him becoming a valuable team asset.
We are not going to reiterate this. All descriptions of said incident were gross and vile and it was a shameful thing. I will not be party to any attempts at minimizing or whitewashing it.There was an incident in which no criminal charges were brough against Verdugo and involved conflicting testimonies when he as 19 years old. Saying your reaction, which was one of the strongest on this board, was reasonable is incredibly disingenuous.
Some people said that they would refuse to watch the Red Sox as long as Verdugo was on the team. Most of the criticism stemmed from a spring training incident that occurred while Alex was a Dodger minor leaguer. Details were sketchy as to his involvement in the incident.Actually, it was much worse than that. Many on this board pretty much said he shouldn't be allowed to play baseball and the Red Sox were a disgusting organization for acquiring him.
Sorry just saw SJH's response. To add some substance to my note, Dungey has come a long way in a short period of time. I'm glad that he has stepped up and assumed a leadership role on the team. Both Verdugo and Duran have shown that all hope is not lost, and players can mature and grow up. Not all players do mature, but it is a happy and great occasion when they do.Some people said that they would refuse to watch the Red Sox as long as Verdugo was on the team. Most of the criticism stemmed from a spring training incident that occurred while Alex was a Dodger minor leaguer. Details were sketchy as to his involvement in the incident.
Not a bad comp. Until I went back and looked just now I forgot how quietly great of an offensive player Nixon was. He had a 152 wRC+ in 2003 at age 29, which dwarfs anything Verdugo has done to date (he’s got a 135 wRC+ this season so far).I've seen him as a next-gen Trot Nixon. Maybe that's a lazy comparison. But if he can give us another 4-5 years with plus production, like Trot did from age 27-32, I think we'd all be happy.
Verdugo has really exhibited these traits from the day he came to Boston. His dedication to becoming a better all around player and his willingness to now embrace some level of leadership with the team makes it REALLY easy to like him as a player. Here's hoping he continues to play with this level of enthusiasm and at the skill level that he's now showing us.I'm so thrilled to see Verdugo performing at a high level this season. I've been a fan since I watched him do a 10-minute segment on the MLB Network early in the 2021 season. He struck me as an enthusiastic student of the game. Someone who had a real joy for playing baseball.
I've been hoping he'd fulfill on his promise because he seems like the kinda guy who should play in Boston for a decade and be loved by our fans.