(
link to AFC standings)
Now that I'm looking at it, I'm not sure I agree - with 5 games to go, Uzbekistan is a point behind 2nd and 2 points behind 1st in their group. They'll have head-to-head opportunities to get a result. Likewise Group B, where as you say it's a 4-horse race but if anything that understates it - you have two teams on 10 points and two teams on 9 points, plus two laggards. I'd say any of those 7 teams could get one of the 4 bids, though you'd certainly bet on Japan & South Korea to be among the survivors. I also had no idea that Iran was ranked ahead of them - who
are those guys?
Actually, I'm curious enough to spend 5 minutes on that. Let me look at the club teams for their
starting roster. The summary is:
- Of the 23 players on the WCQ squad, 12 play in the top level of the Iranian league (Persian Gulf Pro League), 7 of them for Persepolis, the current hegemon in that league
- 2 players in the Russian league,
one of them the starting CM for Rostov (UCL)
- 2 veterans play for Panionios in the Greek Super League
- 2 defenders in the Qatari league
- 2 in the Eredivisie, including
1 MF who starts for AZ (Europa League)
- 1 guy who's a reserve for Dinamo Zagreb in Croatia
- 1 30-year-old who used to be a regular in the Bundesliga and for Fulham in the EPL, but right now lacks a club
- The starting GK starts for a middling Norwegian 1st-division team
- They also have a
young prospect, currently suspended, who's a striker for Rostov, starts in the UCL and has reported interest from a half-dozen giant, famous clubs
So by those standards, they have 2-3 players who are "objectively good", a few more who face decent but not great European competition, and a bunch who play in AFC leagues and who-really-knows-how-good-they-are. And this is the
#1-rated national side in the AFC (#51 FIFA, #23 Elo), somehow ahead of:
(rankings are by Elo)
#21 South Korea (2 MF starters at Augsburg in the Bundesliga, 1 at Crystal Palace and of course Son Heung-min at Spurs)
#26 Japan (among others: Yoshida at Southampton, Okazaki at Leicester, Nagatomo at Inter, Kiyotake at Sevilla, Kagawa at BVB...)
#36 Australia (4 in the Championship, 3 in the EPL, 2 in the Bundesliga, 1 in the Eredivisie, 1 at Celtic, and 1 backup GK at Valencia)
#48 Uzbekistan (3 guys in China, 2 in the Russian Premier League... and that's all for quality credentials)
Have to say that other than the Uzbeks, they're punching above their weight the best. Must have some good coaching.