Week 11

rodderick

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Kelce has been 10% worse this year and it completely fucked the Chiefs' offense. This is why it's so hard to have long term success in this league, the Chiefs will be in the AFCCG again, Mahomes is still the best player in the league, but people really pretended 2018 would be forever and he'd always have prime Hill and Kelce. Every QB deals with subpar years due to bad receiving talent.
 

BigSoxFan

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That their defense is young and really good helps. They can invest in offensive players in the draft. Although as we know it's hard to find the impact guys picking late in R1. They'll also be able to attract ring chasers. I think their real inflection point will be Kelce's retirement and, eventually, Reid's. That will also be when Mahomes is a bit older and having to adjust his game.
Agreed. This looks like a good year to find a WR in late round 1. They just have to avoid a N’Keal Harry situation.
 

j44thor

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I’m going to be interested in seeing how they retool the offense around Mahomes. Kelce is almost done as an elite pass catcher. Nobody else on the roster is remotely close and they won’t have much money to spend in FA on one. I’d keep throwing 1st/2nd round draft capital at the problem, if I were them.
They have close to 50M in cap space and another 12M will be free once they move on from MVS. They are in a good cap position with really only Chris Jones and possibly Snead to resign and virtually no dead cap space, compared to NE who already have 9M in dead cap in 24. They could be a player for Mike Evans, Calvin Ridley or a consolation prize like Gabe Davis who would easily be a top 2 WR in KC.

What will be scary is KC D paired with an average WR corps. They really crushed the draft in 2022 ironically only missing on their 2nd rd WR.
 

TFisNEXT

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That has to be one of the most brutal losses I’ve ever seen almost solely because the receivers just dropped pass after pass…most of them were total dimes too right where they needed to be. They weren’t the prototypical “tough catch but you expect an NFL receiver to make it” ala Quentin Johnston against GB on Sunday …these were pretty easy catches.
 

cshea

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The Chiefs have been shutout in the 2nd half 3 games in a row (Denver, Miami, Philly) and are only averaging 5.3 points in the 2nd half all season. The Bears game was really the only garbage time one where they throttled back. Seems like cause for concern but that defense is really balling out and Mahomes is Mahomes.
 

BaseballJones

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I think this is how KC is going to be moving forward. Elite, all-time great QB with meh weapons, but they'll have a good defense to support Mahomes. On offense they'll just hope/expect that Mahomes is good enough to elevate the rest of the team.
 

cshea

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It feels like they are in/are entering the Reche Caldwell and Doug Gabriel phase of their evolution. Let's see if they can pivot to Moss and Welker.
 

BusRaker

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I think the MVS drop at the end was tougher than it looked ... full on sprint (and not a Jacobi Meyers spring) and had to dive (albeit not a full lay-out) to get his hands on it. He makes that and it is a great catch.

But yeah that game sure made me appreciate all of the years TB12 took a discount to even be able to afford mediocre WRs.
 

johnmd20

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That has to be one of the most brutal losses I’ve ever seen almost solely because the receivers just dropped pass after pass…most of them were total dimes too right where they needed to be. They weren’t the prototypical “tough catch but you expect an NFL receiver to make it” ala Quentin Johnston against GB on Sunday …these were pretty easy catches.
Are you saying Mahomes and Mac are equal in skill level and the receivers are just letting him down?

Don’t give Mahomes a pass if Mac doesn’t get a pass. Come on!
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Kelce has been 10% worse this year and it completely fucked the Chiefs' offense. This is why it's so hard to have long term success in this league, the Chiefs will be in the AFCCG again, Mahomes is still the best player in the league, but people really pretended 2018 would be forever and he'd always have prime Hill and Kelce. Every QB deals with subpar years due to bad receiving talent.
According to the Gisele-Tom corollary, it's all Taylor Swift's fault.

I don't make the rules.
 

Euclis20

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Healthy Burrow is the closest, and I agree.
And Burrow (who turns 27 in a couple of weeks) has as many pro bowl appearances as Mac Jones. Allen, Lawrence, Herbert, Jackson, Burrow...I have no idea which of these guys will step up and be the #2 guy over the next few years.
 

Cellar-Door

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And Burrow (who turns 27 in a couple of weeks) has as many pro bowl appearances as Mac Jones. Allen, Lawrence, Herbert, Jackson, Burrow...I have no idea which of these guys will step up and be the #2 guy over the next few years.
Throw Stroud on the list, he's having a ridiculous rookie year and has the tools to be top QB.
 

BaseballJones

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Which just adds to the fact that QB "wins" are a meaningless stat
I wouldn’t say meaningless. In small sample sizes maybe but when you won as much as Tom Brady did, with all kinds of different conglomerations of teammates, it means something.
 

E5 Yaz

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I wouldn’t say meaningless. In small sample sizes maybe but when you won as much as Tom Brady did, with all kinds of different conglomerations of teammates, it means something.
That is nonsense. They aren't meaningless. They have some meaning. But not all the meaning.

QB quality has a lot of correlation to winning.
Of course QB quality has a correlation to winning. So does defensive line quality, and special teams quality and coaching quality. Quarterbacks can get "wins," as Wilson did against the Eagles, even when their performance was below average or worse. Trent Dilfer "won" a Super Bowl.
All I'm saying is that assigning the victory to the quarterback alone is meaningless, because the quarterback alone is not responsible for the victory. Variance in correlation allows us to place the quarterback in a level of merit; assigning them the win, when so many factors are involved, is arbitrary.
YMMV
 

johnmd20

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Of course QB quality has a correlation to winning. So does defensive line quality, and special teams quality and coaching quality. Quarterbacks can get "wins," as Wilson did against the Eagles, even when their performance was below average or worse. Trent Dilfer "won" a Super Bowl.
All I'm saying is that assigning the victory to the quarterback alone is meaningless, because the quarterback alone is not responsible for the victory. Variance in correlation allows us to place the quarterback in a level of merit; assigning them the win, when so many factors are involved, is arbitrary.
YMMV
You said QB wins are meaningless.

They are decidedly not meaningless, but they don't mean everything, either.

Trent Dilfer might have won 1 Super Bowl but Tom Brady won 7.
 

E5 Yaz

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You said QB wins are meaningless.
Yes I did, then I made clear I was talking about the stat of "QB wins." I believe that to be true. I explained my position in the post you quoted; don't see what else I need to say.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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And Burrow (who turns 27 in a couple of weeks) has as many pro bowl appearances as Mac Jones. Allen, Lawrence, Herbert, Jackson, Burrow...I have no idea which of these guys will step up and be the #2 guy over the next few years.
You guys have clearly not been watching football this season.

Prescott - as much as I hate him - has been having a great season. Stroud is having a great season. Purdy has had a great season. Hurts is having a great season. Goff is having a great season.

My goodness, what a silly pearl clutch. Your QB does suck, but I told you that 2 years ago. It doesn’t mean that QB play is down.
 

Euclis20

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You guys have clearly not been watching football this season.

Prescott - as much as I hate him - has been having a great season. Stroud is having a great season. Purdy has had a great season. Hurts is having a great season. Goff is having a great season.

My goodness, what a silly pearl clutch. Your QB does suck, but I told you that 2 years ago. It doesn’t mean that QB play is down.
Who is clutching pearls, and who said that QB play is down? And I don't believe I've said a thing about overall quality (good or bad), other than stating that there's a massive gap between Mahomes and the next group of guys. You want to add 4-5 more guys (that you mention here) to the players I mentioned earlier, it wouldn't be out of line. Which is my point, there's Mahomes, then a large gap, with no clear #2.

It'd be like if there were no Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers, just Tom Brady at the top of the league for the last 15-20 years. Brady had plenty of very, very good QB contemporaries outside of those two (Favre, McNabb, Romo, Wilson, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Brees, on and on) but at no point did any of those guys (in this century anyway) have an argument as being the best in the league. For most of Brady's career you could make an argument that he wasn't the best QB in the league for any single season, but only because one of Manning/Rodgers were around (or Mahomes, at the end). Even when another QB had a single sensational season (Matt Ryan in 2016), nobody seriously thought he was better than Brady.

Mahomes doesn't have a Manning or Rodgers to compete with at the top, he's alone. Even when a QB in the tier below has an insane season (Jackson in 2019), everybody knows it's still Mahomes by a mile. Even when he's having a mediocre season statistically, everyone knows he's #1 by a mile. There are a lot of guys that could step up (I don't see it being possible for older guys like Dak or Goff, those guys are who they are at this point), but I don't think it's all that controversial to point out that the gap in quality between #1 and #2 (whoever it is) at QB is as great as it's been in recent memory.
 

johnmd20

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You guys have clearly not been watching football this season.

Prescott - as much as I hate him - has been having a great season. Stroud is having a great season. Purdy has had a great season. Hurts is having a great season. Goff is having a great season.

My goodness, what a silly pearl clutch. Your QB does suck, but I told you that 2 years ago. It doesn’t mean that QB play is down.
Except for the fact that QB is objectively down in 2023, your post is great.
 

BaseballJones

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Last 4 years, NFL passing stats (as an entire league, per pro-football-reference.com):

2020: 65.2% completion, 7.2 y/a, 7.2 ay/a, 4.8% td, 2.2% int, 93.6 rating
2021: 64.8% completion, 7.1 y/a, 6.9 ay/a, 4.5% td, 2.5% int, 90.8 rating
2022: 64.2% completion, 7.0 y/a, 6.8 ay/a, 4.2% td, 2.3% int, 89.1 rating
2023: 64.9% completion, 7.0 y/a, 6.7 ay/a, 4.0% td, 2.4% int, 88.7 rating
 

Cellar-Door

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You said QB wins are meaningless.

They are decidedly not meaningless, but they don't mean everything, either.

Trent Dilfer might have won 1 Super Bowl but Tom Brady won 7.
SBs aren't really the QB win stat, but even then, Dilfer winning one does the opposite of prove your point, since nobody would say he was the best QB the year he played, yet he got the only SB win.

Wins are team stats, good QBs can contribute a lot of those wins, but there are much better ways to measure QB quality than a win, and a win is not directly tied to QB performance (you can play like crap and win, you can play great and lose).
 

johnmd20

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SBs aren't really the QB win stat, but even then, Dilfer winning one does the opposite of prove your point, since nobody would say he was the best QB the year he played, yet he got the only SB win.

Wins are team stats, good QBs can contribute a lot of those wins, but there are much better ways to measure QB quality than a win, and a win is not directly tied to QB performance (you can play like crap and win, you can play great and lose).
Wins sometimes aren't directly tied to performance but they often are directly tied to performance. How often does a QB sucking result in a win versus how often a great performance results in a win? Does a team have a better chance of winning if the QB throws 3 TDs or 3 INTs?

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. QB wins are not meaningless. They also don't tell the full story but they certainly write some of the chapters.

Wins are team stats and QBs are, unequivocally, the most important player on the team.
 

Euclis20

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Wins sometimes aren't directly tied to performance but they often are directly tied to performance. How often does a QB sucking result in a win versus how often a great performance results in a win? Does a team have a better chance of winning if the QB throws 3 TDs or 3 INTs?

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. QB wins are not meaningless. They also don't tell the full story but they certainly write some of the chapters.

Wins are team stats and QBs are, unequivocally, the most important player on the team.
yeah I don't see how this is a controversial take at all. Just because they aren't everything doesn't mean they are nothing.

Jameis Winston once led the league in passing yards. Because of that, do we forever discount passing yards as a useful statistic?
 

Hoya81

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I wouldn’t say meaningless. In small sample sizes maybe but when you won as much as Tom Brady did, with all kinds of different conglomerations of teammates, it means something.
It was always weird how they lost to just as many mediocre QBs as good ones in the Brady years, even when they dominated
2003 (14-2, won SB)
Drew Bledsoe
Patrick Ramsey
2004 (14-2, won SB)
Ben Roethlisberger
AJ Feely
2007 (16-1)
Eli Manning
2010 (14-2)
Mark Sanchez x2
Colt McCoy
2011 (13-3)
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Eli Manning x2
Ben Roethlisberger
2012 (12-4)
Kevin Kolb
Joe Flacco x2
Russell Wilson
Colin Kaepernick
2013 (12-4)
Andy Dalton
Geno Smith
Cam Newton
Ryan Tannehill
Peyton Manning
2014 (12-4, won SB)
Ryan Tannehill
Alex Smith
Aaron Rodgers
Kyle Orton
2015 (12-4)
Brock Osweiler
Sam Bradford
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Ryan Tannehill
Peyton Manning
2016 (14-2, won SB)
Tyrod Taylor
Russell Wilson
2017 (13-3)
Alex Smith
Cam Newton
Jay Cutler
Nick Foles
2018 (11-5, won SB)
Blake Bortles
Matt Stafford
Marcus Mariota
Ryan Tannehill
Ben Roethlisberger
2019 (12-4)
Lamar Jackson
Deshaun Watson
Patrick Mahomes
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Ryan Tannehill

More JAGs than I expected.
 

rodderick

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The "QB wins" argument is very simple: it's possible to be Tony Gonzalez, Larry Fitzgerald or JJ Watt and be a top 5 player ever at their positions and have that not translate to wins at all. It's impossible to be a top 5 QB ever and have that not translate to wins at all. They affect games disproportionately, so they are credited differently for team success. Don't think it's that hard. No one is saying QBs win games by themselves. Just like HCs don't, but they have records as well.
 

luckiestman

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I think 2010 is wrong. Sanchize has 2 wins but one is playoffs and you pasted us 45-3 on MNF or something

Edit: my error, you do have Mangini blasting him in there in addition to the playoff games
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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Except for the fact that QB is objectively down in 2023, your post is great.
ORLY?

It's really not

For the last decade QB rating has been plus or minus 1.5 from 90.0 every season, which is where it is now. It had a fluke season in 2020 where it "spiked" to 93.6 but that season was a hot mess and the Athletic decided that - because they have no idea how to look at data - QB has declined since then and sportswriters can be lazy. And I get it, this is a Pats forum that is insane so thinking that Brady leaving caused a cataclysmic drop feels good. But you work close enough to data in real enough to see that there is no trend here, this is normal variance that could just as easily be attributed to weird weather, QBs playing better later in the season, whatever.

You know the other spike year other than 2020? 2018, when it went to 92.9. One year after the cataclysmic season of 2017 when it was 86.9...and this year it is 88.7. Completion rating is higher than prior seasons, total passing yards, lower, and we are just barely halfway through the season.

You have been posting here long enough not to make snarky posts to me as I am insanely smart. I am surprised to see this from you to be honest. Disappointed, maybe.
 

lars10

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The RT doesn’t have to be physically on the line to be considered on the line. Seriously.
My bad then.. but in the first game he was too far back and was getting up out of his stance early on every snap.. which seemed to be the same last night. Also.. how far back is he allowed to be back to still be considered on the line?
 

johnmd20

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ORLY?

It's really not

For the last decade QB rating has been plus or minus 1.5 from 90.0 every season, which is where it is now. It had a fluke season in 2020 where it "spiked" to 93.6 but that season was a hot mess and the Athletic decided that - because they have no idea how to look at data - QB has declined since then and sportswriters can be lazy. And I get it, this is a Pats forum that is insane so thinking that Brady leaving caused a cataclysmic drop feels good. But you work close enough to data in real enough to see that there is no trend here, this is normal variance that could just as easily be attributed to weird weather, QBs playing better later in the season, whatever.

You know the other spike year other than 2020? 2018, when it went to 92.9. One year after the cataclysmic season of 2017 when it was 86.9...and this year it is 88.7. Completion rating is higher than prior seasons, total passing yards, lower, and we are just barely halfway through the season.

You have been posting here long enough not to make snarky posts to me as I am insanely smart. I am surprised to see this from you to be honest. Disappointed, maybe.
You post that link like it it a gotcha, All the numbers are trending down over the last four seasons.

In a world where everything is tilted towards the offense by the rulebook.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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Who is clutching pearls, and who said that QB play is down? And I don't believe I've said a thing about overall quality (good or bad), other than stating that there's a massive gap between Mahomes and the next group of guys. You want to add 4-5 more guys (that you mention here) to the players I mentioned earlier, it wouldn't be out of line. Which is my point, there's Mahomes, then a large gap, with no clear #2.

It'd be like if there were no Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers, just Tom Brady at the top of the league for the last 15-20 years. Brady had plenty of very, very good QB contemporaries outside of those two (Favre, McNabb, Romo, Wilson, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Brees, on and on) but at no point did any of those guys (in this century anyway) have an argument as being the best in the league. For most of Brady's career you could make an argument that he wasn't the best QB in the league for any single season, but only because one of Manning/Rodgers were around (or Mahomes, at the end). Even when another QB had a single sensational season (Matt Ryan in 2016), nobody seriously thought he was better than Brady.

Mahomes doesn't have a Manning or Rodgers to compete with at the top, he's alone. Even when a QB in the tier below has an insane season (Jackson in 2019), everybody knows it's still Mahomes by a mile. Even when he's having a mediocre season statistically, everyone knows he's #1 by a mile. There are a lot of guys that could step up (I don't see it being possible for older guys like Dak or Goff, those guys are who they are at this point), but I don't think it's all that controversial to point out that the gap in quality between #1 and #2 (whoever it is) at QB is as great as it's been in recent memory.
Ummm.....lots of folks?

But your statement is crazy as well. Mahomes is currently behind Purdy, Herbert, Stroud, Jackson and Hurts in terms of Rating for 2023, which - while it is only one stat - if your statement were true in any way you would expect him to be in the top 2, surely.

He has definitely had some bad luck with drops, but he also through an absolute rocket to two receivers in the pouring rain last night, which I think reasonable people can question. Right now I would put Hurts and Stroud (at least) as having better seasons than him (although I will concede that pouring rain did not help make that game a fireworks display for the QBs).
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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My bad then.. but in the first game he was too far back and was getting up out of his stance early on every snap.. which seemed to be the same last night. Also.. how far back is he allowed to be back to still be considered on the line?
It's like when a receiver turns to the ref and says that he is on the line and the ref gives him the thumbs up....it is subjective. Usually the ref will talk to the lineman before calling anything just as he will tell a WR to move forward or backwards. As a rule of thumb.....the lineman has to have the crown of his helmet in front of the center's belt......but you have Tackles literally not even putting their hand down on some plays now, so who knows.

Lane Johnson has an insanely fast get off. He always has, which is one of the reasons why he is a HoF RT.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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You post that link like it it a gotcha, All the numbers are trending down over the last four seasons.

In a world where everything is tilted towards the offense by the rulebook.
You are just completely wrong in this statement. Man, you suck at data. Do people take advantage of you regularly? There was a spike in 2020. That's the story. The rest is normal variance and you being unable to realize that your hypothesis is idiotic. I expect to hear more clinging to this but the old "Hey, I know what I see with my eyes, and I found a few numbers that - if I ignore normal season-to-season and in season variance - back up my point" sure seems like a warm, cozy return to the days of batting average being printed in the newspaper.
 

Cellar-Door

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Wins sometimes aren't directly tied to performance but they often are directly tied to performance. How often does a QB sucking result in a win versus how often a great performance results in a win? Does a team have a better chance of winning if the QB throws 3 TDs or 3 INTs?

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. QB wins are not meaningless. They also don't tell the full story but they certainly write some of the chapters.

Wins are team stats and QBs are, unequivocally, the most important player on the team.
Last year Bailey Zappe won every game he started, Cooper Rush won 80% of his starts, the year before Rush, Case Keenum and PJ Walker won all their starts and Taysom Hill and Colt McCOy combined to go 6-2.

QB wins are worthless because they tell us very little about the QB's performance or his impact. Yes... you are more likely to win if the QB is really good, you are more likely to lose if the QB is really bad... but it's not a particularly close correlation for everything between "Amazing" and "Dogshit" and often you can be even at the extreme and get a win or loss if the opposing QB is also there.We have a LOT of much better ways to tell us if a QB played well over a single game or series of games.

QB is indeed the most important player on the team.... but they are still only a small portion of any given win or loss, especially outside the horrific (who don't last long) and the elite. Why would you measure a QB by a result he has far less control over instead of the many ways we have to measure the things they have a high level of control over.


yeah I don't see how this is a controversial take at all. Just because they aren't everything doesn't mean they are nothing.

Jameis Winston once led the league in passing yards. Because of that, do we forever discount passing yards as a useful statistic?
Raw passing yards? yes they have zero value as a statistic
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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You are just completely wrong in this statement. Man, you suck at data. Do people take advantage of you regularly? There was a spike in 2020. That's the story. The rest is normal variance and you being unable to realize that your hypothesis is idiotic. I expect to hear more clinging to this but the old "Hey, I know what I see with my eyes, and I found a few numbers that - if I ignore normal season-to-season and in season variance - back up my point" sure seems like a warm, cozy return to the days of batting average being printed in the newspaper.
He’s completely wrong why? What data points show that? Is static good? In a league where rules have been heavily tilted towards offense shouldn’t there naturally be an increase?? So by the data you reference the NFL spiked in 2020 and has been meh since. Sounds about right actually.
 

BaseballJones

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QB is indeed the most important player on the team.... but they are still only a small portion of any given win or loss, especially outside the horrific (who don't last long) and the elite. Why would you measure a QB by a result he has far less control over instead of the many ways we have to measure the things they have a high level of control over.
You make some good points, though I disagree that it's a "worthless" stat for QBs. But let's think about that last statement you made. What does a QB have control over, really?

He can control a play they change to at the LOS. Like, a play comes in from the sideline, and he looks over the defense, and he has total control over whether to audible to a different play or run the play as called. Or he can audible for a change in protection. So that's one thing.

He can control - to a large but not unlimited degree - where he throws the ball, both in terms of choice and in terms of accuracy. I say not unlimited because there are elements (wind, rain, snow), there's pressure put on him, and there's always the chance of a tipped pass or someone knocking into his arm as he throws. But largely this is under his control.

That's about it.

He can't control:
- The weather.
- The pressure put on him by the defense unless it's due to him making a mistake in what play/protection he calls.
- The routes run by receivers (whether they run the route correctly or not).
- The quality of job the defense does on the receivers.
- Whether other players commit penalties that nullify good plays he makes.
- Whether receivers drop easy, well thrown passes, or, conversely, make incredible catches off poorly thrown passes.
- Defensive penalties that nullify bad plays by the QB.
- Results of tipped passes - sometimes they fall harmlessly to the ground, sometimes they even get caught by his teammates, and sometimes they get intercepted.
- Yards gained after the reception - though the QB can influence this with a perfectly thrown ball to a receiver catching it in space and in stride, a lot of this work is done by the receiver himself through speed, agility, breaking/missed tackles, etc (it's normally why we attribute YAC to the receiver not the QB).

So based on all that, what statistic(s) measures best the things that the QB does have control over?

Completion percentage? If a QB turns down a great opportunity for a deeper pass in order to dump it off for a safer, higher percentage pass, that might look good in the stats, but it may actually be representative of poor decision making. Conversely, he may take a risk and try for the home run which may be a good gamble, and might be the play that their coaches all love, but it may result in an incomplete pass or worse, and interception. So that would go against his stats, yet would actually be a good play by the QB.

Yards per attempt (and its variations like AY/A, etc.)? Well, sure it helps as a stat but it's also flawed, given all the things above that he can't control. A QB doesn't see a guy open downfield and, fearful of making a mistake, dumps it off to the RB in the flat for what should be a 2 yard gain on 3rd and 8, but the RB breaks three tackles and goes 73 yards for a TD. Yay, great Y/A, but that's all on the RB.

So I think you made some good points, but football, being the ultimate team game, makes it really hard to adequately measure what the QB "has control over".
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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He’s completely wrong why? What data points show that? Is static good? In a league where rules have been heavily tilted towards offense shouldn’t there naturally be an increase?? So by the data you reference the NFL spiked in 2020 and has been meh since. Sounds about right actually.
QB rating for the last ten years.

There was an increase until 10 years ago.

There was a one year spike.

You guys have to get smart.
 

janicks

New Member
Jul 18, 2005
14
It is very easy to check for a trend over time. Fit a regression line and test if the slope is zero.

Eyeballing that data set I'd guess you can make an argument that there is (is not) a trend depending on what variable you use and which year you choose as a starting point.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,775
Just for your viewing pleasure, everyone. Here's four charts showing the passing trends from 1966-2023 in four categories (don't worry about the X-axis. I can't get it to show the years but you can all guess which year is the peak of these charts at the right side of the graph)

74145

74146

74148

74149
 

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Eck'sSneakyCheese

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May 11, 2011
10,441
NH
QB rating for the last ten years.

There was an increase until 10 years ago.

There was a one year spike.

You guys have to get smart.
Interesting you keep falling back to a lack of intelligence when it’s really just perspective. QBR is down 5 points since 2020. You literally keep saying there was a spike and now it’s less. We’re saying the same damn thing. The play is lesser than previous years is it not? A spike infers a rise? Then it goes down yeah? Just because you’re not catastrophizing it doesn’t make it any less true.

Asking for clarity, do you honestly think the overall game is the same this year or are you looking to data points to talk yourself into it? Like if it’s not QB play, what is it? Refs taking over the game interrupting flow? Injuries? It can’t just be because the Pats suck… can it?
 
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tims4wins

PN23's replacement
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Jul 15, 2005
37,580
Hingham, MA
It feels like they are in/are entering the Reche Caldwell and Doug Gabriel phase of their evolution. Let's see if they can pivot to Moss and Welker.
Didn’t they already do this with Hunt, Kelce, and Hill?

Also to the point about QB play - given that we still have about 6-7 weeks left, and the weather just turned, wouldn’t we expect the numbers to get worse as the season goes on? The numbers are likely to look even worse in 2 months, no?

Completely agree with the point about the gap between Mahomes and the next tier. I thought that Burrow/Allen were very close to Mahomes for a while but I’m not sure I believe that any more. Doesn’t help that Burrow is now hurt. There are a ton of bad QBs playing - partly due to injury - and thus, numbers are down. I don’t think this is a controversial take. It’s fact. No Rodgers, no Brady, etc. I don’t think anyone here is all “Brady retired so QB play sucks!!!” like Yammer is saying.
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
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Jun 22, 2008
36,122
Interesting you keep falling back to a lack of intelligence when it’s really just perspective. QBR is down 5 points since 2020. You literally keep saying there was a spike and now it’s less. We’re saying the same damn thing. The play is lesser than previous years is it not? A spike infers a rise? Then it goes down yeah? Just because you’re not catastrophizing it doesn’t make it any less true.

Asking for clarity, do you honestly think the overall game is the same this year or are you looking to data points to talk yourself into it? Like if it’s not QB play, what is it? Refs taking over the game interrupting flow? Injuries? It can’t just be because the Pats suck… can it?
This is a topic of heavy conversation on this New England-based message board and basically nowhere else. So yeah, it’s just because the Pats suck.

As we’ve been discussing in another thread, scoring was down modestly last year from the recent past, and has stayed at those slightly depressed levels this year. Both the numbers and my eyes suggest the key driver is a shift in the balance of power in the trenches, with defenses getting better pressure on QBs.
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

Member
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May 11, 2011
10,441
NH
This is a topic of heavy conversation on this New England-based message board and basically nowhere else. So yeah, it’s just because the Pats suck.
It’s definitely being discussed elsewhere. I’ll post a link in the other thread to keep it in the discussion over there.
 

CFB_Rules

Member
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Nov 29, 2016
1,636
Also.. how far back is he allowed to be back to still be considered on the line?
By rule? He has to be lined up parallel to the line and have any piece of his body breaking the plane drawn through the waist of the snapper.

In practice? They just need to get any piece of the snapper