Week 11

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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Interesting you keep falling back to a lack of intelligence when it’s really just perspective. QBR is down 5 points since 2020. You literally keep saying there was a spike and now it’s less. We’re saying the same damn thing. The play is lesser than previous years is it not? A spike infers a rise? Then it goes down yeah? Just because you’re not catastrophizing it doesn’t make it any less true.

Asking for clarity, do you honestly think the overall game is the same this year or are you looking to data points to talk yourself into it? Like if it’s not QB play, what is it? Refs taking over the game interrupting flow? Injuries? It can’t just be because the Pats suck… can it?
Yes, but when I look at it I am analyzing it as someone who is just alot smarter than you guys. It’s kind of canon at this point. If you don’t believe me, go through the draft threads for the last 5 seasons and see how excited you all were about this shit salad. There are many other proof pointa but that is the simplest. Your post is next.

When you analyze data over time you look for Trend, Seasonality, Cycle and the irregular (random).

The spike in 2020 was not driven by quality of play or a new trend of brilliance. A reasonable, rational person can assess 2020 as inherently an outlier. It was a pandemic, reduced/no crowds, all kinds of changes to the game prep, no preseason, etc. And consequently you get a larger than normal variance off of the TSCi, an enhanced “random variance” driven by factors not common to the game’s play.

And man do idiots love extreme data points in line graphs (they do worse with data in pie charts, but let’s table that for now).

There is no new downward trend if you know how to analyse data. The last 10 years have been quite consistent for this metric and the current variance from the 90.0 is well within the 1.5 bracket of irregular noise (weather driven, injury driven, etc) established in the data. Plus, there is still another half of football to be played and QBs in aggregate tend to improve as the season goes on.

Tomorrow when you wake up thinking of things to be grateful for, you can be grateful for me. I save you fools from your own football ignorance constantly. You are blinded by ignorance and a deep fealty to a man who has always been a good coach and mediocre GM, but I forgive you.

You are welcome you collective group of boneheads.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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By rule? He has to be lined up parallel to the line and have any piece of his body breaking the plane drawn through the waist of the snapper.

In practice? They just need to get any piece of the snapper
Ooh. How is lined up parallel to the line defined? I have been discussing this with players for about a decade Is it shoulders square or feet? I have always assumed it was shoulders.

But yeah, Tackles haven’t been parallel to the line or even close to past the waistline of the center for 90 percent of teams in at least a decade.
 

Bowhemian

Member
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Nov 10, 2015
5,794
Bow, NH
Ooh. How is lined up parallel to the line defined? I have been discussing this with players for about a decade Is it shoulders square or feet? I have always assumed it was shoulders.

But yeah, Tackles haven’t been parallel to the line or even close to past the waistline of the center for 90 percent of teams in at least a decade.
Man this bring back memories of coaching youth football. It was a struggle every practice to keep the line in alignment. Most of the time they ended up in a wedge formation.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,775
Rule changes that favored passing took effect after the 2010 season, so 2011-2023 is what this set of graphs is about.

74168

74170

74171

74172
 

johnmd20

mad dog
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Dec 30, 2003
62,089
New York City
NFL teams are scoring the least amount of points per game since 2009. 21.7

It was 21.9 last year. It was 23, 24.8, 22.8, 23.3 in the previous 4 years.

NFL offenses are scoring less points. Despite the rules being tilted in the offenses favor.

Note, in the mid 10s, average scores had seasons of 22.2, 22.8, 23.4, 22.8, 22.8, 23.8, 22.8. So it’s not like you can just look at the Covid season and say, “Outlier.”

Teams are objectively scoring less points, going back 14 years.
 

kartvelo

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Aug 12, 2003
10,486
At home
NFL teams are scoring the least amount of points per game since 2009. 21.7

It was 21.9 last year. It was 23, 24.8, 22.8, 23.3 in the previous 4 years.

NFL offenses are scoring less points. Despite the rules being tilted in the offenses favor.

Note, in the mid 10s, average scores had seasons of 22.2, 22.8, 23.4, 22.8, 22.8, 23.8, 22.8. So it’s not like you can just look at the Covid season and say, “Outlier.”

Teams are objectively scoring less points, going back 14 years.
74177

To my amateur eyes, it appears as though the recent wave of great QBs is over/dying, defenses are getting smarter/better and tipping the balance of power between O and D, etc.
 

janicks

New Member
Jul 18, 2005
14
When you analyze data over time you look for Trend, Seasonality, Cycle and the irregular (random).
There is no seasonality in that data set. Those points are aggregated to a full season. If you want to investigate seasonality you need to look at monthly or weekly numbers.

I don't know why one would expect a cyclical effect. Rule changes?

There is no real way to know whether the declines of the past few years are the start of a new downward trend or just noise. 3 or 4 data points are not enough to detect a fundamental change. I'd guess if you did a forecasting exercise then the previous years of data would overwhelm the recent few years and you would project an overall gradual upward trend but with large uncertainty.
 

Justthetippett

New Member
Aug 9, 2015
2,517
I don't think points scored is the metric I would use to assess "good football". Great defense can still be very entertaining, but it's so when the defense makes a play that stands out (sack, pass breakup, open field tackle, TO) and is harder to see when it happens through general coverage and it looks like the offense is just inept. Good football to me is when there's a back and forth and guys are freed up to make incredibly skillfully, athletic plays that are either executed or not. I think the Phi-KC game was great, despite the 38 combined points. What took away from it were the handful of god awful calls by the refs. Even the MVS play was very entertaining. He had a chance, it was a great throw, and he didn't quite pull it off.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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There is no seasonality in that data set. Those points are aggregated to a full season. If you want to investigate seasonality you need to look at monthly or weekly numbers.

I don't know why one would expect a cyclical effect. Rule changes?

There is no real way to know whether the declines of the past few years are the start of a new downward trend or just noise. 3 or 4 data points are not enough to detect a fundamental change. I'd guess if you did a forecasting exercise then the previous years of data would overwhelm the recent few years and you would project an overall gradual upward trend but with large uncertainty.
No one claimed there was a cyclical effect in the last decade, but yes, most of the large increases in the metric over the last 30 years seem to have been driven by rule changes (which have impaxt both ways, catches are now reviewed far more than in the past, almost to a silly degree). I was just breaking down each piece of a time series to be thorough.

There is 100 percent a seasonal effect as we are talking about the last data point - the one being discussed here - using data through week 11. QBs improve over the course of the season in aggregate, although blizzards up and down the East Coast on a Sunday can ding the heck out of that.

There was a spike in the pandemic season and a guy on the Athletic mistook it for a trend. People do this constantly.
 

janicks

New Member
Jul 18, 2005
14
There is 100 percent a seasonal effect as we are talking about the last data point - the one being discussed here - using data through week 11.
There may of course be a seasonal effect but there is 100% nothing in that annual data set to detect this effect. Seasonality would be detected through monthly or weekly data over several years.


QBs improve over the course of the season in aggregate, although blizzards up and down the East Coast on a Sunday can ding the heck out of that.
I thought it was generally accepted that offensive numbers declined over the season due to weather, although I do not claim to have ever really looked into this.
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

Member
SoSH Member
May 11, 2011
10,442
NH
Yes, but when I look at it I am analyzing it as someone who is just alot smarter than you guys. It’s kind of canon at this point. If you don’t believe me, go through the draft threads for the last 5 seasons and see how excited you all were about this shit salad. There are many other proof pointa but that is the simplest. Your post is next.

When you analyze data over time you look for Trend, Seasonality, Cycle and the irregular (random).

The spike in 2020 was not driven by quality of play or a new trend of brilliance. A reasonable, rational person can assess 2020 as inherently an outlier. It was a pandemic, reduced/no crowds, all kinds of changes to the game prep, no preseason, etc. And consequently you get a larger than normal variance off of the TSCi, an enhanced “random variance” driven by factors not common to the game’s play.

And man do idiots love extreme data points in line graphs (they do worse with data in pie charts, but let’s table that for now).

There is no new downward trend if you know how to analyse data. The last 10 years have been quite consistent for this metric and the current variance from the 90.0 is well within the 1.5 bracket of irregular noise (weather driven, injury driven, etc) established in the data. Plus, there is still another half of football to be played and QBs in aggregate tend to improve as the season goes on.

Tomorrow when you wake up thinking of things to be grateful for, you can be grateful for me. I save you fools from your own football ignorance constantly. You are blinded by ignorance and a deep fealty to a man who has always been a good coach and mediocre GM, but I forgive you.

You are welcome you collective group of boneheads.
Just wow.
This glass has a little less in it.
You: Akshually if you compare it to the other few glasses next to it ignoring the really full one it’s about the same.
But it’s just a little less in this one.
You: No it’s not.
But there’s legitimately less.
You: once you take into account standard deviation it’s fine.
You sir, are a complete tool. Appreciate the arrogant response. I’ve read your shit for a while here and while you’re usually on point, I think you’re getting old. Like your schtick.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

Internet Cowboy, Turbo Accelerator, tOSU Denier
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
There may of course be a seasonal effect but there is 100% nothing in that annual data set to detect this effect. Seasonality would be detected through monthly or weekly data over several years.

I thought it was generally accepted that offensive numbers declined over the season due to weather, although I do not claim to have ever really looked into this.
Your second paragraph shows the flaw in your first. The end of season rating is almost always higher - in aggregate - than the mid-season. Again though, a few Sundays of blizzard can outweigh that seasonality.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

Internet Cowboy, Turbo Accelerator, tOSU Denier
Lifetime Member
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My seething hatred of Nick Sirianni has been documented, but more fuel to the most hateable coach in the league.

You won a regular season game where a receiver dropped a winning TD. Congrats asshole.

View: https://twitter.com/RPatrickAllen/status/1727160668904898638
True statement: I love his passion

Also true statement: This and the Frank Reich stuff last season is embarrassing. It’s too much.

Also, also true statement: Had he done this against the Cowboys I probably would have loved it

Also, also, also true statement: He is a very good football coach so I guess I need to accept this as being part of the package.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

Internet Cowboy, Turbo Accelerator, tOSU Denier
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Just wow.
This glass has a little less in it.
You: Akshually if you compare it to the other few glasses next to it ignoring the really full one it’s about the same.
But it’s just a little less in this one.
You: No it’s not.
But there’s legitimately less.
You: once you take into account standard deviation it’s fine.
You sir, are a complete tool. Appreciate the arrogant response. I’ve read your shit for a while here and while you’re usually on point, I think you’re getting old. Like your schtick.
I honestly thought you were a lurker. I can’t remember a single thing you have said on any topic. This post just shows you to be a clown who doesn’t understand data.
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

Member
SoSH Member
May 11, 2011
10,442
NH
I honestly thought you were a lurker. I can’t remember a single thing you have said on any topic. This post just shows you to be a clown who doesn’t understand data.
I honestly thought you were rational. Your continued posts show you to be belligerent and willfully ignorant when you’re wrong. Explains a lot of your content.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,775
I won't do this for that many guys because it's a ton of data sifting, but here are month-by-month passer ratings (regular season only) for their careers for these QBs. Not including their January numbers because they are all far, far smaller sample sizes than the other months. For example, Russell Wilson has played 48 December regular season games, and only 7 January regular season games. So I'm just leaving January out.

Peyton Manning
Sep - 98.6
Oct - 100.0
Nov - 90.1
Dec - 99.4

Tom Brady
Sep - 97.4
Oct - 100.9
Nov - 96.5
Dec - 92.5

Aaron Rodgers
Sep - 103.1
Oct - 106.9
Nov - 102.4
Dec - 100.8

Russell Wilson
Sep - 101.8
Oct - 100.9
Nov - 99.5
Dec - 98.7

Ben Roethlisberger
Sep - 90.7
Oct - 99.6
Nov - 92.4
Dec - 92.7

Philip Rivers
Sep - 99.2
Oct - 95.4
Nov - 94.4
Dec - 92.9

Drew Brees
Sep - 95.2
Oct - 98.2
Nov - 103.4
Dec - 97.3

Patrick Mahomes
Sep - 116.5
Oct - 98.8
Nov - 104.9
Dec - 99.5

Dak Prescott
Sep - 95.9
Oct - 103.1
Nov - 99.7
Dec - 94.9

Brett Favre
Sep - 89.6
Oct - 84.6
Nov - 86.7
Dec - 82.2

Observations about this data:

- By month, here's their best passer ratings:
Sep - 4 (Wilson, Rivers, Mahomes, Favre)
Oct - 5 (Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Prescott)
Nov - 1 (Brees)
Dec - 0

- By month, here's their worst passer ratings:
Sep - 2 (Roethlisberger, Brees)
Oct - 1 (Mahomes)
Nov - 1 (Manning)
Dec - 6 (Brady, Rodgers, Wilson, Rivers, Prescott, Favre)

- Average of these ten guys by month:
Sep - 98.8
Oct - 98.8
Nov - 97.0
Dec - 95.1

- Of the 12 months (from these 10 QBs) that have a 100.0 rating or higher:
Sep - 3
Oct - 5
Nov - 3
Dec - 1

- Of the 12 months (from these 10 QBs) that have a 94.9 rating or lower:
Sep - 2
Oct - 1
Nov - 4
Dec - 5

This is limited data, using only 10 quarterbacks. The trends from these 10 QBs is pretty clear. But since it's limited to these 10 guys, make of it what you will. It's obviously not a complete data set.
 

Oil Can Dan

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0-3 to 4-3

cornwalls@6

Less observant than others
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
6,298
from the wilds of western ma
Thoughts on the Italian flag on the visor?

It drives my dad bananas when the Eagles are playing badly, which is beyond hilarious.
Just noticed that the other night. Is it just general heritage/pride, or something more specific? Belichick's been rocking an Armenian patch/pin on and off for several years, but I think that's specifically a statement about the Turkish genocide of Armenians being fully recognized.
 

Hoya81

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Feb 3, 2010
8,494

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,775
Same exercise, with some recent QBs in their rookie years (or first full years as a starter), to take into account their growth in terms of experience.

Mahomes (2018)
Sep - 137.4
Oct - 101.3
Nov - 124.8
Dec - 105.5

Allen (2018)
Sep - 63.8
Oct - 56.0
Nov - 89.8
Dec - 70.6

Mac Jones (2021)
Sep - 79.1
Oct - 98.3
Nov - 117.2
Dec - 57.4

Watson (2018)
Sep - 93.5
Oct - 105.0
Nov - 110.4
Dec - 107.2

Hurts (2021)
Sep - 99.2
Oct - 83.3
Nov - 69.5
Dec - 106.2

Lawrence (2021)
Sep - 66.4
Oct - 82.5
Nov - 68.7
Dec - 65.8

Herbert (2020)
Sep - 90.5
Oct - 122.2
Nov - 94.8
Dec - 84.9

Burrow (2021)
Sep - 113.8
Oct - 103.6
Nov - 84.5
Dec - 113.3

Zach Wilson (2021)
Sep - 51.6
Oct - 79.9
Nov - 58.5
Dec - 76.1

Daniel Jones (2019)
Sep - 95.9
Oct - 78.8
Nov - 94.2
Dec - 87.2

As before...some observations about this data:

- By month, here's their best passer ratings:
Sep - 3 (Mahomes, Burrow, D Jones)
Oct - 3 (Lawrence, Herbert, Wilson)
Nov - 3 (Allen, M Jones, Watson)
Dec - 1 (Hurts)

- By month, here's their worst passer ratings:
Sep - 2 (Watson, Wilson)
Oct - 3 (Mahomes, Allen, D Jones)
Nov - 2 (Hurts, Burrow)
Dec - 3 (M Jones, Lawrence, Herbert)

- Average of these ten guys by month:
Sep - 89.1
Oct - 91.1
Nov - 91.2
Dec - 87.4

- Of the 12 months (from these 10 QBs) that have a 100.0 rating or higher:
Sep - 2
Oct - 4
Nov - 3
Dec - 4

- Of the 12 months (from these 10 QBs) that have a 94.9 rating or lower:
Sep - 6
Oct - 5
Nov - 7
Dec - 6

Just from this 10 player sample, there is no clear direction up or down as the season goes on.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

Internet Cowboy, Turbo Accelerator, tOSU Denier
Lifetime Member
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Same exercise, with some recent QBs in their rookie years (or first full years as a starter), to take into account their growth in terms of experience.

Mahomes (2018)
Sep - 137.4
Oct - 101.3
Nov - 124.8
Dec - 105.5

Allen (2018)
Sep - 63.8
Oct - 56.0
Nov - 89.8
Dec - 70.6

Mac Jones (2021)
Sep - 79.1
Oct - 98.3
Nov - 117.2
Dec - 57.4

Watson (2018)
Sep - 93.5
Oct - 105.0
Nov - 110.4
Dec - 107.2

Hurts (2021)
Sep - 99.2
Oct - 83.3
Nov - 69.5
Dec - 106.2

Lawrence (2021)
Sep - 66.4
Oct - 82.5
Nov - 68.7
Dec - 65.8

Herbert (2020)
Sep - 90.5
Oct - 122.2
Nov - 94.8
Dec - 84.9

Burrow (2021)
Sep - 113.8
Oct - 103.6
Nov - 84.5
Dec - 113.3

Zach Wilson (2021)
Sep - 51.6
Oct - 79.9
Nov - 58.5
Dec - 76.1

Daniel Jones (2019)
Sep - 95.9
Oct - 78.8
Nov - 94.2
Dec - 87.2

As before...some observations about this data:

- By month, here's their best passer ratings:
Sep - 3 (Mahomes, Burrow, D Jones)
Oct - 3 (Lawrence, Herbert, Wilson)
Nov - 3 (Allen, M Jones, Watson)
Dec - 1 (Hurts)

- By month, here's their worst passer ratings:
Sep - 2 (Watson, Wilson)
Oct - 3 (Mahomes, Allen, D Jones)
Nov - 2 (Hurts, Burrow)
Dec - 3 (M Jones, Lawrence, Herbert)

- Average of these ten guys by month:
Sep - 89.1
Oct - 91.1
Nov - 91.2
Dec - 87.4

- Of the 12 months (from these 10 QBs) that have a 100.0 rating or higher:
Sep - 2
Oct - 4
Nov - 3
Dec - 4

- Of the 12 months (from these 10 QBs) that have a 94.9 rating or lower:
Sep - 6
Oct - 5
Nov - 7
Dec - 6

Just from this 10 player sample, there is no clear direction up or down as the season goes on.
There is such easier ways to find the full dataset but I am glad to see your time being wasted.
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

Member
SoSH Member
May 11, 2011
10,442
NH
There is such easier ways to find the full dataset but I am glad to see your time being wasted.
What is this bullshit? Getting data that doesn’t go the way you expect or want and you put it off like it’s nothing even though @BaseballJones took the time to provide actual points. You just keep repeating that our pea brains can’t interpret it correctly. What a fucking joke. You are adding zero substance to the conversation at this point, instead just insulting everyone and proclaiming yourself the smartest person here without much to back it up. Again, I understand that’s your thing but can you turn it down a little. It’s really fucking old. I apologize that someone in your current life makes you feel insignificant and you need to fight those insecurities on the internet but some of us just want to talk fucking football without being berated by your cocksuckery. Get a life.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

Internet Cowboy, Turbo Accelerator, tOSU Denier
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
What is this bullshit? Getting data that doesn’t go the way you expect or want and you put it off like it’s nothing even though @BaseballJones took the time to provide actual points. You just keep repeating that our pea brains can’t interpret it correctly. What a fucking joke. You are adding zero substance to the conversation at this point, instead just insulting everyone and proclaiming yourself the smartest person here without much to back it up. Again, I understand that’s your thing but can you turn it down a little. It’s really fucking old. I apologize that someone in your current life makes you feel insignificant and you need to fight those insecurities on the internet but some of us just want to talk fucking football without being berated by your cocksuckery. Get a life.
I am the least insecure guy you know. But I - and a number of others who have messaged me - think your reactions are phenomenal entertainment. So from that perspective it is something for which I am very grateful.

And do your grandma a favor and make something for Thanksgiving. You live in the lady’s basement, be kind.