Week 6 By the Numbers
- Thread starter soxfan121
- Start date
Bonus stats note from compiling the "Brady Trust Watch":
There are three games this year where Brady has targeted Edelman and Gronkowski with more than 50% of his passes: Minnesota, Cincinnati, and yesterday. Those are the three games where the team scored 30+ points (of course, the Vikings game featured a return TD and another near-return TD). The Bills game might surprise some folks, given that Brady completed passes to 10 different receivers, but 5 of those 10 were only targeted once, and Edelman (12 targets) Gronkowski (9), and LaFell (6) were the only players who got more than 3. The two games where Brady has been best at spreading the ball around (as measured by targets): Miami and Kansas City, the two losses. The Oakland game was exactly 50/50 between Edelman/Gronk and other (once you discount the throwaway at the end).
I don't think the takeaway is that Brady should focus more on Edelman and Gronk, but I think this does show that the criticism of Brady not spreading the ball around enough is wrongheaded. The issue isn't how much Brady is throwing to the secondary / tertiary / etc. guys, but how effective he is when he does throw to them.
There are three games this year where Brady has targeted Edelman and Gronkowski with more than 50% of his passes: Minnesota, Cincinnati, and yesterday. Those are the three games where the team scored 30+ points (of course, the Vikings game featured a return TD and another near-return TD). The Bills game might surprise some folks, given that Brady completed passes to 10 different receivers, but 5 of those 10 were only targeted once, and Edelman (12 targets) Gronkowski (9), and LaFell (6) were the only players who got more than 3. The two games where Brady has been best at spreading the ball around (as measured by targets): Miami and Kansas City, the two losses. The Oakland game was exactly 50/50 between Edelman/Gronk and other (once you discount the throwaway at the end).
I don't think the takeaway is that Brady should focus more on Edelman and Gronk, but I think this does show that the criticism of Brady not spreading the ball around enough is wrongheaded. The issue isn't how much Brady is throwing to the secondary / tertiary / etc. guys, but how effective he is when he does throw to them.
Do you guys have a breakdown on Brady's numbers with play action yesterday? I remarked to a friend during the second half that despite the Pats only running for 2 yards a pop, they were just killing the Bills on play action, so I was wondering if the Bills were just selling out against the run and leaving themselves exposed. Poor strategy, IMO, if they did so. Wondering what the film says. You guys rock!
Super Nomario said:
This really is the stuff that drives me bonkers.
You put the ball into the hands of your best players. Gronk/Edelman are the best receivers the Patriots have.
Brady has targeted Gronk/Edelman on 49% of targets. Are people complaining that Rodgers targets Cobb/Nelson too often this season (58% of targets)? That Manning is targeting Sanders/Thomas too often (54% of targets)? That Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins see the ball too much (54% of targets)? Hell, Cutler has targeted Forte and Bennett (a running back and tight end) on 46% of his targets.
This offense has its warts, but focusing on a lack of distribution is missing the point.
Kenny F'ing Powers said:
From 2001 to about 2006 the Patriots had similar quality receivers, there obviously was a depth chart, and at times an obvious number one receiver, but the disparity between options was less accentuated, so spreading the ball came natural to that offense. As soon as you had an offense built around the likes of Moss/Welker, Gronkowski/Welker/Hernandez, Gronkowski/Edelman with lesser players around them, it's obvious those guys should get the bulk of the catches, because they're far and away your best options. The talent disparity grew bigger, so the choice of targets naturally changed accordingly.
tims4wins said:
Absolutely. Going into the game I recalled from his time with the Patriots that Brandon Spikes, in particular, used to bite on play action (maybe it just felt that way?). Would be interested to see if he was one of the primary offenders.
I mean, on the Tyms TD alone SF121 did an incredible job showing how play action just devastated the Bills. I wonder whether the loss of Byrd from their secondary played a role here.
To support your point further, Edelman has a 74% catch rate and 10 yards a catch. Gronk's is lower at 59%, but 13 yards a catch and that stat is being dragged down by week 1 when the offense was out of sync, Gronk was still rusty, and Brady probably did force him the ball a bit. Since then, he's catching 2/3 of targets.Kenny F'ing Powers said:
Brady's only thrown 2 INTs all year, both after the KC game had spiraled out of control, so its not like he's turning the ball over forcing it into these guys.
A lack of distribution argument has to lie on Brady locking in on receivers and taking sacks and that doesn't look like what's happening on film.