While only one game, last night sums it up. Top 5 goes go 0-fer. First run scores on a play that Sox CF makes. Top 2 relievers are sitting. Backup (or 3rd string) catcher gets game-winner. Given the way Nola (an excellent pitcher) was pitching (better than excellently), the only way they were going to win is hold the Philllies down until Nola was out. Still no guarantees in a bullpen game, but they were not getting a 2nd run against him.
I think this is one of the intangibles where the impact of the manager really comes into play. All on Cora.
Yeah, this has been fun to watch and most on here should be well-versed enough in playoff baseball to know that the best team doesn't always win. Cleveland last year was probably the best team and didn't make it out of the divisional round. In 2016, most on here were salivating over playing Cleveland minus 2 of their top 3 starters....we were swept out of the playoffs with game 3 being started by Josh Tomlin at Fenway.
Assuming the current rate of success is not doing it for me. First the schedule gets a lot tougher, and secondly when they hit mid September and they're at 103 or so, surely Cora starts resting guys all over the place.
Cora resting people sort of depends on where the Yankees are though right? If the Sox are at 103 and the Yankees 102 how much resting will there actually be?
I used Fangraphs' ROS W% from:
You should rethink that. The Sox are 76-34. To win 116 they would need to go 40-12. Halfway there is 20-6, which would mean 96-40. For the Yanks to get to one game behind 96-40 which is 95-41, they would have to go 26-2 ! As Jimy Williams used to say about opposing pitchers, if that happened you have to tip your cap to them.
The September schedule is fucking brutal and there's virtually no chance 116 happens, but we can fucking dream.
You sound like you're suggesting that if a team is close to the all time record for wins, the second place team is unlikely to be a real threat.
That and they play each other 9 times still, so there's at least 9 guaranteed losses among the 2 teams.
You, Sir/Madam/Nonbinary Person are entirely lacking in both imagination and fun.
To your first point: Yes, the Sox are playing at an all-time great level of play and despite that, 116 would require them to win at a better clip than they have so far. That is highly unlikely.
Yeah, I'm not up for doing the math (at work), but it should be our division by this point, unless the Yankees win 7 of those head-to-head games and the Sox win whatever ungodly number of games they otherwise play to be on this pace. There is a pathway, but it's mathematically unlikely. I recommend this grid for likely season outcomes for both teams based on the results of this series:
The Sox and Yanks only have 6 games left. Three at Fenway three at the Stadium. The Sox are up 8-5 on the season series right now.
You, Sir/Madam/Nonbinary Person are entirely lacking in both imagination and fun.
I'm inferring. Pre-season, they expected the Yankees to be a .570 WP team (this is not accounting for schedule, same as the current odds display). At the time, they expected the Sox to be a .530 WP team.
How many excuses do you have to make for inaccuracy? How many times do the systems have to justify or update their "predictions"?
This raised a question for me. Anyone know if, since the change to the current schedule, any team has won ten games against every other team in the division?
Last year, the Diamondbacks won 11, 11, 11 and 12 games vs. COL/LAD/SD/SF.
The Sox winning those 3 games pretty much eliminated any chance the Yankees had to win 116, if they had any chance to do so to begin with. The Yankees are barely on a 100 win pace now. Chances are the Sox are resting guys in September and won't sniff 110 wins, never mind 116.
What do you mean by change to current schedule?
I meant the current divisional alignment and the unbalanced schedule that resulted.
Simple - the Yankees have been missing the great Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge whilst the Sox are at full strength (well, aside from Sale, ERod, Pedroia, Devers, Vazquez, Swihart, Wright, Kinsler and Carson Smith...)
Do you have a link?
Also, depending on which of those numbers account for the opponent and which don't, the Sox are facing better pitching staffs the rest of the way, and have more road and fewer home games.
Yes, the true averages are very similar -.263 for BOS vs. .264 for NY - but what's really puzzling is that they project the Yankees at 4.7 FRAA and the Sox at 4.0 for rest of season.
I agree - I'm hard pressed to see the Yankees as the stronger fielding team.
Both UZR and DRS think the Yankees have fielded better so far this year--UZR by a negligibly small margin, but DRS by a whopping one. DRS really loathes the Sox; Mookie is the only position player on the team that doesn't get a lower rating from that system, often (as with Bogaerts and Nunez) by a pretty dramatic margin.
42Red Sox magic number over the Orioles for the division is 5. I was hoping to see a July elimination but close enough
Over the Yankees the magic number is 41, with 49 games to play (51 for MFY).
This has to be matchups, right? The Sox play Houston (by far #1 in pitching) as well as several other above-average pitching teams (Phila, ATL, Rays, CLE). That would suppress our offense slightly.
It’s actually 6 and 42 respectively. You’re calculating the number necessary to guarantee a tie whereas Magic number is the wins + losses needed to eliminate the team in question.Red Sox magic number over the Orioles for the division is 5. I was hoping to see a July elimination but close enough
Over the Yankees the magic number is 41, with 49 games to play (51 for MFY).
Kinsler is (already did briefly) going to lift that up a lot.
One of these is not like the others, and also happens to be the most relevant one.
Yeah Xander isn't nearly as good defensively...though he has some crazy differences between UZR and DRS....and it's been that way most of his career...esp 2016-onward. UZR thinks he's about average defensively while DRS hates him.
