We're halfway through the season

joe dokes

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This is really the key. I don't know if they're the "best" team in the league, but they are clearly the most balanced. The Yankees have an iffy rotation, the Indians have a dumpster-fire bullpen, and the Astros lineup has massively underperfomed compared to last year. Whereas the Sox are at or near the top in all three categories, with plus defense all over the field (especially with Kinsler). This is a solid, solid team.
While only one game, last night sums it up. Top 5 goes go 0-fer. First run scores on a play that Sox CF makes. Top 2 relievers are sitting. Backup (or 3rd string) catcher gets game-winner. Given the way Nola (an excellent pitcher) was pitching (better than excellently), the only way they were going to win is hold the Philllies down until Nola was out. Still no guarantees in a bullpen game, but they were not getting a 2nd run against him.
 

BroodsSexton

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What I like best about the team is the completeness. There isn't a glaring hole, really, anywhere. They have a winning record in just about any split besides games where they scored fewer runs than the opponent. And they've done it consistently since spring training. They can beat a team in all kinds of different ways, and that, IMO, is the secret sauce formula for the playoffs.
I think this is one of the intangibles where the impact of the manager really comes into play. All on Cora.
 

TFisNEXT

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On pace to win 112 games. Best run differential. Most runs scored. Second fewest allowed. Two legit MVP candidates. Young guys playing well. Adding quality veterans to the mix. Sale is dominant. Price coming into form. Injuries are an issue but they're working through them.

Incredible performance 2/3 of the way through the season. I won't say that if they don't win the World Series it'll be a disappointment or a "failure" because we all know how hard it is to get that done, and there are VERY worthy competitors to have to go through. and baseball is baseball.

But man this team is just crushing it in every way right now. It's unbelievable to watch.
Yeah, this has been fun to watch and most on here should be well-versed enough in playoff baseball to know that the best team doesn't always win. Cleveland last year was probably the best team and didn't make it out of the divisional round. In 2016, most on here were salivating over playing Cleveland minus 2 of their top 3 starters....we were swept out of the playoffs with game 3 being started by Josh Tomlin at Fenway.

Obviously it will be a disappointment on some level if this team doesn't make a deep playoff run, but I'm enjoying the ride in the meantime knowing the playoffs have so much random luck involved in their outcome in addition to the team skills.
 

SemperFidelisSox

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The good news is the Orioles, Rays and Blue Jays all traded away key players (Machado, Osuna, Archer, Schoop, Gausman, O’Day), making the final 16 games vs those teams a lot easier.

The bad news is the Braves, Indians, Astros, Yankees added pieces to improve. Plus, the Mets kept deGrom, Syndergard and Wheeler. The 25 games remaining against those teams just became more difficult.

I think they fall well short of 112 wins.
 
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Rasputin

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At what point is it okay to talk about this team maybe getting to 116 wins?

Put another way, on the hypothetical future date when this team reached 100 wins, how many games have to be left for you to think it's a realistic possibility?

16 is 70% of 23. If the Sox were to win #100 in game # 139, would that do it?

Let's ignore the fact that they have to go 24-5 to get there.
 

chrisfont9

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At what point is it okay to talk about this team maybe getting to 116 wins?

Put another way, on the hypothetical future date when this team reached 100 wins, how many games have to be left for you to think it's a realistic possibility?

16 is 70% of 23. If the Sox were to win #100 in game # 139, would that do it?

Let's ignore the fact that they have to go 24-5 to get there.
Assuming the current rate of success is not doing it for me. First the schedule gets a lot tougher, and secondly when they hit mid September and they're at 103 or so, surely Cora starts resting guys all over the place.
 

Boggs26

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Assuming the current rate of success is not doing it for me. First the schedule gets a lot tougher, and secondly when they hit mid September and they're at 103 or so, surely Cora starts resting guys all over the place.
Cora resting people sort of depends on where the Yankees are though right? If the Sox are at 103 and the Yankees 102 how much resting will there actually be?
 

SirPsychoSquints

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At what point is it okay to talk about this team maybe getting to 116 wins?

Put another way, on the hypothetical future date when this team reached 100 wins, how many games have to be left for you to think it's a realistic possibility?

16 is 70% of 23. If the Sox were to win #100 in game # 139, would that do it?

Let's ignore the fact that they have to go 24-5 to get there.
I used Fangraphs' ROS W% from:
https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

I assumed the Sox would be .620 ROS W% (assuming we keep winning we should adjust our priors upwards given the success).

I made adjustments for home field advantage, and used this to calculate head to head odds.

Overall, I came to expect we'd win 57.8% of those last 23 games. Using that as a binomial (I've simplified a bunch of times), I used this to calculate the odds of at least 16 wins - it suggests 17.7%. That sounds about right, given the opponents over that last month, assuming we get into the right position.
 

Humphrey

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Cora resting people sort of depends on where the Yankees are though right? If the Sox are at 103 and the Yankees 102 how much resting will there actually be?
You should rethink that. The Sox are 76-34. To win 116 they would need to go 40-12. Halfway there is 20-6, which would mean 96-40. For the Yanks to get to one game behind 96-40 which is 95-41, they would have to go 26-2 ! As Jimy Williams used to say about opposing pitchers, if that happened you have to tip your cap to them.
 

Rasputin

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Assuming the current rate of success is not doing it for me. First the schedule gets a lot tougher, and secondly when they hit mid September and they're at 103 or so, surely Cora starts resting guys all over the place.
The September schedule is fucking brutal and there's virtually no chance 116 happens, but we can fucking dream.
You should rethink that. The Sox are 76-34. To win 116 they would need to go 40-12. Halfway there is 20-6, which would mean 96-40. For the Yanks to get to one game behind 96-40 which is 95-41, they would have to go 26-2 ! As Jimy Williams used to say about opposing pitchers, if that happened you have to tip your cap to them.
You sound like you're suggesting that if a team is close to the all time record for wins, the second place team is unlikely to be a real threat.
 

Cesar Crespo

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The September schedule is fucking brutal and there's virtually no chance 116 happens, but we can fucking dream.

You sound like you're suggesting that if a team is close to the all time record for wins, the second place team is unlikely to be a real threat.
That and they play each other 9 times still, so there's at least 9 guaranteed losses among the 2 teams.
 

Boggs26

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The September schedule is fucking brutal and there's virtually no chance 116 happens, but we can fucking dream.

You sound like you're suggesting that if a team is close to the all time record for wins, the second place team is unlikely to be a real threat.
To your first point: Yes, the Sox are playing at an all-time great level of play and despite that, 116 would require them to win at a better clip than they have so far. That is highly unlikely.

To the second point: the odds would seem to be against a team winning 110+ games and having any real competition from the 2nd place team. However, with three AL trans on pace to win 100 games it isn't as unlikely as usual. Now if the Sox actually win 116, there will be no competition, but it's far more likely (though still unlikely) that the Sox could win 110 and the Yankees 108 or 109. My earlier comment about resting players had less to do with 116 specifically and more to do with the fact that the division may not be wrapped up by either team early enough to rest people more than normal.
 

chrisfont9

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That and they play each other 9 times still, so there's at least 9 guaranteed losses among the 2 teams.
Yeah, I'm not up for doing the math (at work), but it should be our division by this point, unless the Yankees win 7 of those head-to-head games and the Sox win whatever ungodly number of games they otherwise play to be on this pace. There is a pathway, but it's mathematically unlikely. I recommend this grid for likely season outcomes for both teams based on the results of this series:
http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/the_playoff_implications_of_this_series_with_boston
 

dcmissle

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Some things are worth a 40-year wait.

Enjoy the journey.
 

Blue Monkey

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I can’t even believe we’re having this conversation!! 116!! Lol what’s the running joke around here??? “Ya know 100 wins isn’t out of the question” ha.
 

timlinin8th

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That and they play each other 9 times still, so there's at least 9 guaranteed losses among the 2 teams.
The Sox and Yanks only have 6 games left. Three at Fenway three at the Stadium. The Sox are up 8-5 on the season series right now.
 

Rasputin

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I can’t even believe we’re having this conversation!! 116!! Lol what’s the running joke around here??? “Ya know 100 wins isn’t out of the question” ha.
You, Sir/Madam/Nonbinary Person are entirely lacking in both imagination and fun.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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Can someone please explain to me how BP says the Yankees are better than us, again?
I'm inferring. Pre-season, they expected the Yankees to be a .570 WP team (this is not accounting for schedule, same as the current odds display). At the time, they expected the Sox to be a .530 WP team.

By third order winning percentage, the Sox have been .654 and the Yankees have been .642 (they're showing the Sox have won 5.1 games more than "expected" and the Yankees have lost 2.7 games more than "expected" based on third order winning percentage).

The above implies they're weighting the pre-season projection at something like 50% more important than the performance to date. This ignores the changes to depth charts/injuries/trades, which is factored in as well.
 

Adrian's Dome

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I'm inferring. Pre-season, they expected the Yankees to be a .570 WP team (this is not accounting for schedule, same as the current odds display). At the time, they expected the Sox to be a .530 WP team.

By third order winning percentage, the Sox have been .654 and the Yankees have been .642 (they're showing the Sox have won 5.1 games more than "expected" and the Yankees have lost 2.7 games more than "expected" based on third order winning percentage).

The above implies they're weighting the pre-season projection at something like 50% more important than the performance to date. This ignores the changes to depth charts/injuries/trades, which is factored in as well.
How many excuses do you have to make for inaccuracy? How many times do the systems have to justify or update their "predictions"?

And more importantly, how much longer is it going to take before you realize it's all bullshit?
 

Rasputin

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The Sox and Yanks only have 6 games left. Three at Fenway three at the Stadium. The Sox are up 8-5 on the season series right now.
This raised a question for me. Anyone know if, since the change to the current schedule, any team has won ten games against every other team in the division?
 

Cesar Crespo

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The Sox and Yanks only have 6 games left. Three at Fenway three at the Stadium. The Sox are up 8-5 on the season series right now.
The Sox winning those 3 games pretty much eliminated any chance the Yankees had to win 116, if they had any chance to do so to begin with. The Yankees are barely on a 100 win pace now. Chances are the Sox are resting guys in September and won't sniff 110 wins, never mind 116.

Another fun fact: There are only 2 teams in baseball with a better home record than the Redsox road record.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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This raised a question for me. Anyone know if, since the change to the current schedule, any team has won ten games against every other team in the division?
What do you mean by change to current schedule?

Four team division, but Mariners in 2001 won 15 against LAA and TEX and 10 against a 102 win A's team. They also had a winning record against every opponent. But you may have meant since realignment and Psycho has a more recent one anyway.
 

Rasputin

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What do you mean by change to current schedule?

Four team division, but Mariners in 2001 won 15 against LAA and TEX and 10 against a 102 win A's team. They also had a winning record against every opponent. But you may have meant since realignment and Psycho has a more recent one anyway.
I meant the current divisional alignment and the unbalanced schedule that resulted.
 

uk_sox_fan

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Can someone please explain to me how BP says the Yankees are better than us, again?
Simple - the Yankees have been missing the great Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge whilst the Sox are at full strength (well, aside from Sale, ERod, Pedroia, Devers, Vazquez, Swihart, Wright, Kinsler and Carson Smith...)
 

PrometheusWakefield

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Red Sox magic number over the Orioles for the division is 5. I was hoping to see a July elimination but close enough :)

Over the Yankees the magic number is 41, with 49 games to play (51 for MFY).
 

Dewey'sCannon

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Here's what BP has for Rest of Season projections. I don't understand why they think the Yankees will outscore the Red Sox by 22 runs over the remainder of the season (with very little difference in projected OPS), which seems to be the underlying basis for their ROS W-L projections (it still has the Sox with an advantage on projected Runs Against).

AL E W L WPct RS RA AVG OBP SLG
New York Yankees 31 20 .608 258 208 .248 .321 .431
Boston Red Sox 28 21 .571 236 202 .263 .327 .421
Tampa Bay Rays 25 25 .500 226 229 .246 .311 .386
Toronto Blue Jays 25 26 .490 243 252 .246 .314 .416
Baltimore Orioles 20 30 .400 225 279 .249 .308 .414
 

SirPsychoSquints

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Here's what BP has for Rest of Season projections. I don't understand why they think the Yankees will outscore the Red Sox by 22 runs over the remainder of the season (with very little difference in projected OPS), which seems to be the underlying basis for their ROS W-L projections (it still has the Sox with an advantage on projected Runs Against).

AL E W L WPct RS RA AVG OBP SLG
New York Yankees 31 20 .608 258 208 .248 .321 .431
Boston Red Sox 28 21 .571 236 202 .263 .327 .421
Tampa Bay Rays 25 25 .500 226 229 .246 .311 .386
Toronto Blue Jays 25 26 .490 243 252 .246 .314 .416
Baltimore Orioles 20 30 .400 225 279 .249 .308 .414
Do you have a link?

Half those runs are because the Yankees play 2 more games the rest of the way. They're projecting the Yankees score .24 runs per game more and allow .04 runs per game less.

Edit: I found it, it's the Depth Charts (which is filtered by my work).

The true average is slightly higher for the Yankees, which makes me think the slash lines above are not park adjusted.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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Do you have a link?

Half those runs are because the Yankees play 2 more games the rest of the way. They're projecting the Yankees score .24 runs per game more and allow .04 runs per game less.

Edit: I found it, it's the Depth Charts (which is filtered by my work).

The true average is slightly higher for the Yankees, which makes me think the slash lines above are not park adjusted.
Also, depending on which of those numbers account for the opponent and which don't, the Sox are facing better pitching staffs the rest of the way, and have more road and fewer home games.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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Do you have a link?

Half those runs are because the Yankees play 2 more games the rest of the way. They're projecting the Yankees score .24 runs per game more and allow .04 runs per game less.

Edit: I found it, it's the Depth Charts (which is filtered by my work).

The true average is slightly higher for the Yankees, which makes me think the slash lines above are not park adjusted.
Yes, the true averages are very similar -.263 for BOS vs. .264 for NY - but what's really puzzling is that they project the Yankees at 4.7 FRAA and the Sox at 4.0 for rest of season.
https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/index.php
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I agree - I'm hard pressed to see the Yankees as the stronger fielding team.
Both UZR and DRS think the Yankees have fielded better so far this year--UZR by a negligibly small margin, but DRS by a whopping one. DRS really loathes the Sox; Mookie is the only position player on the team that doesn't get a lower rating from that system, often (as with Bogaerts and Nunez) by a pretty dramatic margin.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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Both UZR and DRS think the Yankees have fielded better so far this year--UZR by a negligibly small margin, but DRS by a whopping one. DRS really loathes the Sox; Mookie is the only position player on the team that doesn't get a lower rating from that system, often (as with Bogaerts and Nunez) by a pretty dramatic margin.
Do we know how those systems adjust for Fenway?
 

chrisfont9

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Here's what BP has for Rest of Season projections. I don't understand why they think the Yankees will outscore the Red Sox by 22 runs over the remainder of the season (with very little difference in projected OPS), which seems to be the underlying basis for their ROS W-L projections (it still has the Sox with an advantage on projected Runs Against).

AL E W L WPct RS RA AVG OBP SLG
New York Yankees 31 20 .608 258 208 .248 .321 .431
Boston Red Sox 28 21 .571 236 202 .263 .327 .421
Tampa Bay Rays 25 25 .500 226 229 .246 .311 .386
Toronto Blue Jays 25 26 .490 243 252 .246 .314 .416
Baltimore Orioles 20 30 .400 225 279 .249 .308 .414
This has to be matchups, right? The Sox play Houston (by far #1 in pitching) as well as several other above-average pitching teams (Phila, ATL, Rays, CLE). That would suppress our offense slightly.
 

uk_sox_fan

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Red Sox magic number over the Orioles for the division is 5. I was hoping to see a July elimination but close enough :)

Over the Yankees the magic number is 41, with 49 games to play (51 for MFY).
It’s actually 6 and 42 respectively. You’re calculating the number necessary to guarantee a tie whereas Magic number is the wins + losses needed to eliminate the team in question.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Our infield defense is pretty atrocious.
Kinsler is (already did briefly) going to lift that up a lot.

You can live with Devers when X/Kinsler/Moreland is the rest of the infield, and Nunez is actually decent as a defensive replacement for Devers late in games.
 

TFisNEXT

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One of these is not like the others, and also happens to be the most relevant one.
Yeah Xander isn't nearly as good defensively...though he has some crazy differences between UZR and DRS....and it's been that way most of his career...esp 2016-onward. UZR thinks he's about average defensively while DRS hates him.
 

JimD

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Looking at the Yankees' remaining schedule - man, what a cakewalk. If the Red Sox stumble even a little bit, the lead could easily drop under 5 games pretty quickly.
 

BaseballJones

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47 games left.

Bos: 81-34
NY: 71-42
- - -
Hou: 73-42

With 47 games left for Boston, let's say they go 28-19 (.596 clip). That would put Boston at 109 wins.

Now, Boston's worst 47 game stretch so far this season was from May 1 through June 20, where they went 28-19. So this is a reasonable low bar to set. And it would still mean that NY and Hou would have to play phenomenal baseball to end up with the same record as Boston.

NY would need to go 38-11 (.776) to tie.
Hou would need to go 36-11 (.766) to tie.

It isn't over yet because it's baseball and strange things happen. But they're in very good shape right now, obviously.