What About Buying?

[CSteinhardt]

Coming into the season, I felt this was a 90-95 win team.  When we had the whole panic/how to improve thread a few weeks ago, I pointed out that the easiest place for the team to improve was essentially in taking a bench that collectively had an OPS under 400 and simply upgrading it to replacement level, and in that sense, the De Aza trade was exactly the sort of thing that made sense.
 
So, where do we go from here?  I still believe that, talent-wise, this is a 90-95 win team.  They're not nearly as bad as they were in May, but they're also not as good as they've been for the past couple of weeks.  A 90-95 win pace from here on out would mean 84-78, likely to be a handful of games out of the playoffs. There's a decent chance that the division will be easier to win than a wildcard.  Going forward, the main thing we've learned this season is that our evaluation of Betts, Bogaerts, and Swihart as pieces we want to hold onto long-term was correct; at this point it doesn't make sense to trade them except for a similarly valuable and similarly cost-controlled starting pitcher, and that sort of trade doesn't happen because neither side is ever willing to make it.
 
Given that, what's the right plan?  I'd argue it's the same one as with the De Aza trade -- instead of trying to bring in a superstar at a high price from a small number of sellers, upgrade the bottom of the roster to being a little bit better.  And, indeed, we have a few key pieces that are performing so poorly that we should be able to upgrade them at the cost of something a lot more like what we gave the Orioles for De Aza than like, say, what we got from them in return for Andrew Miller.  Places where a cheap upgrade should be available, in order of what I'd see as our priority:
 
1) Napoli -- I think we've seen enough now to know that he's cooked, as much as the fan in me hates to admit that.  1B is low enough on the defensive spectrum that there are always bats available to stick there, several of whom are expensive players at the tail end of long contracts.  This is someplace where a Gunkel-type prospect, plus the financial flexibility to take on salary in a year where the cap is irrelevant, should let us find an improvement.  A league average 1B (more expensive, but perhaps just in dollars) would be worth about 1.5 wins over the remainder of the season compared to Napoli, and even a replacement value 1B is worth half a win.
 
2) Porcello -- Has actually been more harmful than Napoli.  However, this is something, like with the team in May, where basically the best option is to believe in the long-term evaluation of Porcello as a good MLB starting pitcher and hope he figures it out.  Even if a league average MLB starting pitcher were available for free, Porcello's contract makes that an incredibly expensive option -- he's going to either be starting the rest of the season (and hopefully regressing to the performance he showed previously) or end up with a long DL stint.  So, the plan here has to be to find a way to make Porcello work -- regardless of how you'd like to apportion blame, right now this needs a coaching solution, not a GM solution.
 
3) The Kelly/Masterson/Wright tire fire -- the other spot where we've lost a win even to replacement value starting pitching so far this season, and one without long-term investment that prevents us from finding a better solution.  The problem, of course, is that starting pitching is expensive.  Fortunately, we have several good candidates in the high minors, one or two of whom are even starting to run low on options.  My plan would be to give Johnson a month to claim the spot, or even Owens depending upon your evaluation of his last few weeks, before deciding whether to pay that price closer to the deadline.  Regardless, this isn't someplace to bring in a good starter on a long contract simply because between top prospects (and Kelly should be included on that list) and existing long-term contracts, there isn't really a rotation spot available past this year.  
 
4) Back of the bullpen -- We need a long reliever and, as always, could use another good arm or two.  I'd look to make Wright the long reliever, and I strongly suspect that by September callups, we'll naturally find a couple of people to help.  At the same time, we saw what top relievers bring back at the deadline, and it's not worth paying that cost.  The best solution here seems to be promoting from AAA, I'd think, both given the cost and also because the back end of the bullpen has been bad enough that even an average replacement would be a useful upgrade.
 
5) Backup catcher -- When Swihart is healthy, he should be up the remainder of the year in place of Leon.  No cost in terms of control years, and he's been making the right adjustments.  If he's somehow out for much of the remainder of the season, we need to upgrade Leon, and should be able to do so very cheaply.
 
So, to summarize, my plan would be:
 
Look to trade for: average veteran 1B, willing to eat short-term large contract to drive the price down; possibly league average or slightly lower quality starting pitcher if available for primarily cash rather than prospects.
Promote from within: starting pitcher, back end of bullpen
 
Finally, as much as possible I'd keep in mind that because of the start to the season, the most likely scenario is that even a 95-win team falls short of the playoffs after a 40-45 start.  As a result, finding development opportunities for the players who have the projection of real prospects and look like they've mastered AAA (Bradley, for example) is still an important consideration, and may well become more so depending upon how the next few weeks play out.  This isn't a time to go all-in for this year, even if there were places available where it would help (and it's not clear that there are any).

 

[Rasputin]

Coming into the season, I felt this was a 90-95 win team.  When we had the whole panic/how to improve thread a few weeks ago, I pointed out that the easiest place for the team to improve was essentially in taking a bench that collectively had an OPS under 400 and simply upgrading it to replacement level, and in that sense, the De Aza trade was exactly the sort of thing that made sense.
 
So, where do we go from here?  I still believe that, talent-wise, this is a 90-95 win team.  They're not nearly as bad as they were in May, but they're also not as good as they've been for the past couple of weeks.  A 90-95 win pace from here on out would mean 84-78, likely to be a handful of games out of the playoffs. There's a decent chance that the division will be easier to win than a wildcard.  Going forward, the main thing we've learned this season is that our evaluation of Betts, Bogaerts, and Swihart as pieces we want to hold onto long-term was correct; at this point it doesn't make sense to trade them except for a similarly valuable and similarly cost-controlled starting pitcher, and that sort of trade doesn't happen because neither side is ever willing to make it.
 
Given that, what's the right plan?  I'd argue it's the same one as with the De Aza trade -- instead of trying to bring in a superstar at a high price from a small number of sellers, upgrade the bottom of the roster to being a little bit better.  And, indeed, we have a few key pieces that are performing so poorly that we should be able to upgrade them at the cost of something a lot more like what we gave the Orioles for De Aza than like, say, what we got from them in return for Andrew Miller.  Places where a cheap upgrade should be available, in order of what I'd see as our priority:
 
1) Napoli -- I think we've seen enough now to know that he's cooked, as much as the fan in me hates to admit that.  1B is low enough on the defensive spectrum that there are always bats available to stick there, several of whom are expensive players at the tail end of long contracts.  This is someplace where a Gunkel-type prospect, plus the financial flexibility to take on salary in a year where the cap is irrelevant, should let us find an improvement.  A league average 1B (more expensive, but perhaps just in dollars) would be worth about 1.5 wins over the remainder of the season compared to Napoli, and even a replacement value 1B is worth half a win.
 
2) Porcello -- Has actually been more harmful than Napoli.  However, this is something, like with the team in May, where basically the best option is to believe in the long-term evaluation of Porcello as a good MLB starting pitcher and hope he figures it out.  Even if a league average MLB starting pitcher were available for free, Porcello's contract makes that an incredibly expensive option -- he's going to either be starting the rest of the season (and hopefully regressing to the performance he showed previously) or end up with a long DL stint.  So, the plan here has to be to find a way to make Porcello work -- regardless of how you'd like to apportion blame, right now this needs a coaching solution, not a GM solution.
 
3) The Kelly/Masterson/Wright tire fire -- the other spot where we've lost a win even to replacement value starting pitching so far this season, and one without long-term investment that prevents us from finding a better solution.  The problem, of course, is that starting pitching is expensive.  Fortunately, we have several good candidates in the high minors, one or two of whom are even starting to run low on options.  My plan would be to give Johnson a month to claim the spot, or even Owens depending upon your evaluation of his last few weeks, before deciding whether to pay that price closer to the deadline.  Regardless, this isn't someplace to bring in a good starter on a long contract simply because between top prospects (and Kelly should be included on that list) and existing long-term contracts, there isn't really a rotation spot available past this year.  
 
4) Back of the bullpen -- We need a long reliever and, as always, could use another good arm or two.  I'd look to make Wright the long reliever, and I strongly suspect that by September callups, we'll naturally find a couple of people to help.  At the same time, we saw what top relievers bring back at the deadline, and it's not worth paying that cost.  The best solution here seems to be promoting from AAA, I'd think, both given the cost and also because the back end of the bullpen has been bad enough that even an average replacement would be a useful upgrade.
 
5) Backup catcher -- When Swihart is healthy, he should be up the remainder of the year in place of Leon.  No cost in terms of control years, and he's been making the right adjustments.  If he's somehow out for much of the remainder of the season, we need to upgrade Leon, and should be able to do so very cheaply.
 
So, to summarize, my plan would be:
 
Look to trade for: average veteran 1B, willing to eat short-term large contract to drive the price down; possibly league average or slightly lower quality starting pitcher if available for primarily cash rather than prospects.
Promote from within: starting pitcher, back end of bullpen
 
Finally, as much as possible I'd keep in mind that because of the start to the season, the most likely scenario is that even a 95-win team falls short of the playoffs after a 40-45 start.  As a result, finding development opportunities for the players who have the projection of real prospects and look like they've mastered AAA (Bradley, for example) is still an important consideration, and may well become more so depending upon how the next few weeks play out.  This isn't a time to go all-in for this year, even if there were places available where it would help (and it's not clear that there are any).

 
So...Hellenic Fluify Porcello, dump Masterson and Breslow, bring up Johnson, Owens, and Wright, and look for a halfways decent 1B somewhere.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

Agree we need one more arm you can count on in the bullpen. I also think it's time to call up Johnson and see what he can do. If Johnson can show an ability to be a decent pitcher over the next 3 weeks it totally changes the conversation about acquiring another SP, especially if you're shopping in the "decent #3 or #4" aisle. Really, it would be a damned shame to see this team acquire some marginal upgrade like Garza or Jorge de la Rosa or somesuch without at least taking a look at whether we could get better production from a guy we already have.
 
Disagree about Leon. I don't think the team should do anything to disrupt Buchholz routine right now. Being Clay's binky is itself a critical job worthy of a roster spot. Swihart should go back to AAA. And to be honest, if Swihart were the key piece in getting a top of the rotation starter, I think we have to consider it. 

 

[Rasputin]

if Swihart were the key piece in getting a top of the rotation starter, I think we have to consider it. 

 
Hell no.
 
I think between Buchholz, Eduardo Rodriguez, and god help me, even Porcello, we're going to be pretty happy with our top three over the next few years, especially if Miley and Johnson can just be halfways decet.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Fangraph's playoff odds have been kind to the Sox from the beginning, and it's remarkable how well we are still doing according to their system. Fangraphs currently projects a .540 winning percentage for the rest of the year and a 82-80 final record. That gives us a 27.5% chance at making the playoffs, higher than the Rays or the Tigers and basically even with the Orioles at 27.8%. 3.8% chance at winning the World Series which is sixth in the American League, a sliver behind the Blue Jays at 3.9%. 
 
If we were to make a 2 WAR addition - which of course means adding a 4 WAR upgrade or combination of upgrades since we're halfway through the year - that would put us in about the same territory as the Blue Jays, who are given a 40% chance of making the playoffs.
 
So at least according to Fangraphs, we are a team on the bubble that should be looking for an upgrade. 

Need to factor in that other teams, better positioned for the post season, will also improve at the deadline.

So calculating percentages relative to (say) the Blue Jays or Yankees needs to assume they pick up a high quality piece (like a Cueto) and don't stand pat.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

 
Hell no.
 
I think between Buchholz, Eduardo Rodriguez, and god help me, even Porcello, we're going to be pretty happy with our top three over the next few years, especially if Miley and Johnson can just be halfways decet.

 
Agreed.  Frankly, I think we're a bit beyond the worrisome stage with Miley.  He had a few bumps in the road early on, but he's basically been exactly as advertised for the last 2 months or so (since the end of April, 13 starts, 80 innings, 3.70 ERA).  Not an elite top of the rotation guy, but also not a back of the rotation filler guy either.  A classic mid-rotation innings eater.

 

[Rasputin]

 
Agreed.  Frankly, I think we're a bit beyond the worrisome stage with Miley.  He had a few bumps in the road early on, but he's basically been exactly as advertised for the last 2 months or so (since the end of April, 13 starts, 80 innings, 3.70 ERA).  Not an elite top of the rotation guy, but also not a back of the rotation filler guy either.  A classic mid-rotation innings eater.

Which leaves Porcello as the massively important piece to figure out.

If he comes back in 2016 and is some semblance of his previous self, I think we're golden.

If not, we've got to get pretty lucky with Johnson or Owens or go get someone.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Which leaves Porcello as the massively important piece to figure out.

If he comes back in 2016 and is some semblance of his previous self, I think we're golden.

If not, we've got to get pretty lucky with Johnson or Owens or go get someone.

What on earth would give you any reasonable sense of confidence that Buchholz will repeat his performance next year? Or really even that he will maintain it for the remainder of this year?

 

[Rasputin]

What on earth would give you any reasonable sense of confidence that Buchholz will repeat his performance next year? Or really even that he will maintain it for the remainder of this year?

He's been this good before. He just hasn't done it for a while season. All he's got to do is stay healthy.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

The Red Sox need a starter: Buchholz, Rodriguez, Miley, Porcello, and ???  Even though he has been a disaster, Porcello is obviously staying in the rotation.
 
The other potential starter: Brian Johnson.  While I like Johnson, he profiles as a bottom- of-the-rotation starter with the potential to develop into a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter.  I would be willing to include Johnson in a trade for an established major league starter.
 
There is an issue at 1B, but maybe Napoli will get going.  If he doesn't, the Red Sox could always platoon Holt and Napoli at the position.  They need an extra bullpen arm, but I wouldn't trade too much for one; instead, I would target a SP and hope that one of my minor league arms will help in the bullpen (maybe Joe Kelly).
 
Trade pieces:
Brian Johnson
Matt Barnes (maybe someone has a higher grade on Barnes than the Red Sox do)
Owens (I think Owens has more upside as a starter than Johnson and Barnes and so I would prefer keeping Owens in the system)
Marrero (limited trade value)
Bradley Jr (Teams will be interested in his defense, but the Red Sox might be selling low at this point).
Devers (I would hate to trade him--I wouldn't trade him for a rental, I would only include him for a younger pitcher like S.Gray).
Guerra (see Devers comment)
Kopech (see Devers comment)
Margot (see Devers comment)
 
Does Christian Vazquez have sufficient trade value at this point?  It doesn't make sense to sell Vazquez low, but I don't think he has a future with the Red Sox -- Swilhart is the guy.
 
Since I'm unwilling to trade Devers, Guerra, Kopech, and Margot for a veteran pitcher, there probably isn't enough here to acquire Hamels.  Trying to figure out the trade value of rentals like Cueto and Jeff Samardzija is harder to do, but those teams will probably want someone from the Devers, Guerra, Kopech, and Margot group as well.
 
Maybe the Red Sox should target a more modest SP upgrade?  But if that is the case, why not promote Brian Johnson (or Wright) and then, in turn, strengthen the bullpen by trading for a reliever with an expensive contract, thus reducing the quality of prospects going back. 
 
The Red Sox situation is somewhat similar to the Yankees.  The Yankees don't want to part with Severino or Judge and so probably won't be able to acquire one of the top starters on the trade market.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

delete

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

He's been this good before. He just hasn't done it for a while season. All he's got to do is stay healthy.

Oh, well that should be easy for him, given his track record and all.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Oh, well that should be easy for him, given his track record and all.

 
And if they went out and got a "proven" ace for the front of the rotation, let's say Hamels for the sake of argument, he comes with a guarantee of good healthy for the remainder of his deal?  Whether the player has a track record or not, injury isn't predictable.  Track record is indicative of nothing.  While not an elite pitcher, the Red Sox acquired Matt Clement following seven straight seasons in which he made 30 starts and had stayed off the disabled list.  15 months into that deal, his career was over due to a shredded shoulder.
 
Point is, they have and can keep Buchholz for reasonable money for the next 2.5 years.  There's nothing wrong with counting him as an asset, and a great asset, to the rotation going forward.

 

[benhogan]

Post All Star break, 'to do' list:
 
1. Brian Johnson to the rotation.  Starters: Clay, Edro, Miley, Porcello, BJ
2. Masterson given a shot to be 6th/7th inning situational righty vs. righty
3. Cut Breslow.         
4. Wright long man   Pen: Koji, Taz, Ogando, Masterson, Layne, Wright, Ross(first guy sent down)
5. Kelly continues at AAA as a starter for depth purposes, but if this team starts contending, he is brought up to the pen to be our Wade Davis.
6. Nava given a shot to platoon with Napoli at first for a month.
7. Once healthy, Swihart backs up catcher. Hannigan catches Buch.
8. Look to acquire Will Smith, 4 years of arb left after this season, starting to handle RH hitters, like him a lot...offer Cecchini + Barnes if that doesn't work, go as high as offering JBJ on his own 

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

 
And if they went out and got a "proven" ace for the front of the rotation, let's say Hamels for the sake of argument, he comes with a guarantee of good healthy for the remainder of his deal?  Whether the player has a track record or not, injury isn't predictable.  Track record is indicative of nothing.  While not an elite pitcher, the Red Sox acquired Matt Clement following seven straight seasons in which he made 30 starts and had stayed off the disabled list.  15 months into that deal, his career was over due to a shredded shoulder.
 
Point is, they have and can keep Buchholz for reasonable money for the next 2.5 years.  There's nothing wrong with counting him as an asset, and a great asset, to the rotation going forward.

I'm not (and have not) advocating going out and obtaining a "proven ace", nor am I suggesting to get rid of him. I'm disputing that half a healthy season from Buchholz (in combination with Rodriguez, Miley and a Porcello that is a semblance of his former self) means we are "golden" going into 2016.

While you are correct that injuries can't be predicted, yes, track record does matter. We had this debate about Jed Lowrie and Jacoby Ellsbury for years around here and while you can certainly say that unrelated injuries are non predictive, you can also say that an injury prone player is not someone you anchor your hopes and dreams on. Sometimes guys just can't stay healthy. Or even when they can, they play like shit. Thing with Buchholz is is that with him it's both.

You can wish cast all you like, but bottom line is that in nine years he's been able to stay healthy and perform well once. If you don't consider that predictive, that's fair enough, but I see nothing to suggest otherwise.

 

[Thelobsterroll]

Post All Star break, 'to do' list:
 
1. Brian Johnson to the rotation.  Starters: Clay, Edro, Miley, Porcello, BJ
2. Masterson given a shot to be 6th/7th inning situational righty vs. righty
3. Cut Breslow.         
4. Wright long man   Pen: Koji, Taz, Ogando, Masterson, Layne, Wright, Ross(first guy sent down)
5. Kelly continues at AAA as a starter for depth purposes, but if this team starts contending, he is brought up to the pen to be our Wade Davis.
6. Nava given a shot to platoon with Napoli at first for a month.
7. Once healthy, Swihart backs up catcher. Hannigan catches Buch.
8. Look to acquire Will Smith, 4 years of arb left after this season, starting to handle RH hitters, like him a lot...offer Cecchini + Barnes if that doesn't work, go as high as offering JBJ on his own 

Barnes can't get major league hitters out and Cecchini is having a Napoli season in triple A. I don't think either of those chips have value. Like the rest of it though.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Post All Star break, 'to do' list:
 
1. Brian Johnson to the rotation.  Starters: Clay, Edro, Miley, Porcello, BJ
2. Masterson given a shot to be 6th/7th inning situational righty vs. righty
3. Cut Breslow.         
4. Wright long man   Pen: Koji, Taz, Ogando, Masterson, Layne, Wright, Ross(first guy sent down)
5. Kelly continues at AAA as a starter for depth purposes, but if this team starts contending, he is brought up to the pen to be our Wade Davis.
6. Nava given a shot to platoon with Napoli at first for a month.
7. Once healthy, Swihart backs up catcher. Hannigan catches Buch.
8. Look to acquire Will Smith, 4 years of arb left after this season, starting to handle RH hitters, like him a lot...offer Cecchini + Barnes if that doesn't work, go as high as offering JBJ on his own 

 

Barnes can't get major league hitters out and Cecchini is having a Napoli season in triple A. I don't think either of those chips have value. Like the rest of it though.

 
I think it's time to quasi-punt. I don't think I'd mortgage the future for a chance to contend this year (since it seems marginal at best.)  
 
But I don't see what use "rehabbing" guys like Masterson and Nap is at this point.  Sure, maybe they get better, but they're FAs anyway.  We have a little streak going - so better to cut them loose and trade conservatively/promote from within.  If we contend, great.  If not we get development time in for younger players.  Porcello's the kind of ML deadweight you have to carry through the season.  Masterson/Nap/Breslow aren't.  
 
I'd even put Porcello in the BP, and go with Clay, Edro, Miley, BJ, Wright.  When they're 100% out of it, give Porcello some starts.  

 

[KillerBs]

Yeah this is where I am at too. I am not seeing any sense in a deal where we move any top prospect to marginally increase the long odds at a play-in game especially given the additional pay roll constraints that would come with it. We have 3 WS in the last 10 years, we should not feel desperate about making the play-offs this year. The idea again is to build a team that wins 95 a year, which means you cant compromise the future every year for minimal increases in the odds of squeaking into the play-offs with a mediocre team. On top of it, I just dont see any surplus minor leaguers of any value who it makes sense to move because they are blocked.
 
On the pitching staff, we have 8 potential starters as follows. Buchholz, Edro, Miley, Porcello, Masterson, Wright, Kelly and Johnson. Maybe Owens makes it 9 before too long. 
 
Right now, Clay, Edro and Miley are locks, tho we may need to back off Eddie's innings before long. That leaves 5 guys for 2 spots in the rotation. All of them except Masterson figure significantly into 2016 and beyond plans. Hence they get priority over Masterson. This "surplus" of (mediocre) potential ML SPs looks likely to persist into next year too. I would select 2 of the remaining 4 and put in rotation, and then put the other 2 in the major league bull pen,as legit long relievers or even starter/relievers. I dont even care too much who goes where among these 4 and they can fiddle around with the 4 of them, in and out of the rotation and long relief as the year goes on, depending on success and how to best protect their arms. The two of these 4 who are not in the rotation replace Breslow and Ross, who gotta go. The back end of the pen stays as is with Koji, Taz, Ogando and Layne, and that leaves Masterson to try and fend off Barnes et al for another month or two.. I would prefer they jut cut bait with Justin now. The 9.5M we pay him this year should temper any ill will. 
 
Long story short, winning a few games doesnt make it any more sensible to keep Breslow, Ross and Masterson up over Wright, Kelly and Johnson.
 
So in the end, one possible iteration of the staff would look like this: 
 
Buchholz
Edro
Miley
Wright
Porcello
 
BJohnson
Kelly
Barnes
Ogando
Layne
Tazawa
Uehara

 

[Doctor G]

Call Jack Z and offer JBJ and Marrero for Furbush and Jesus Montero.

 

[tims4wins]

Now up to 5th in the AL in terms of chances of winning the ALCS on fangraphs, at 7.6%.

 

[ivanvamp]

Now up to 5th in the AL in terms of chances of winning the ALCS on fangraphs, at 7.6%.

How on earth do they calculate those odds because yes they're playing well, but they're still in last place with one of the worst records in the league.

 

[twibnotes]

By the same token, if Ben C starts to make desperation moves, then its up to Henry & co to tell him to knock it off.

Lucchino has always made it sound like decisions are finalized by the group. I think ownership has the ability to block Ben from making moves that are designed to save his job more than serve the best interests of the club.

 

[tomdeplonty]

How on earth do they calculate those odds because yes they're playing well, but they're still in last place with one of the worst records in the league.

 
The division is relatively close.

 

[Devizier]

He's been this good before. He just hasn't done it for a while season. All he's got to do is stay healthy.

 
Just wait until Bret Saberhagen comes back!!

 

[czar]

How on earth do they calculate those odds because yes they're playing well, but they're still in last place with one of the worst records in the league.

 
Projections (particularly, ZiPS I believe). Take today's record and add it to RoS projected winning %. ZiPS believes Sox players have underperformed/been somewhat unlucky. Based on this, they have Sox at .540 Win% RoS.
 
You can flip (using the tabs) to "to season to date mode" which ignores the projections (Sox 3.4% to make playoffs) and "coin-flip mode" (everyone has 50/50 odds every game, or "random walk" mode. Sox 8%).

 

[smastroyin]

How on earth do they calculate those odds because yes they're playing well, but they're still in last place with one of the worst records in the league.

 
Is this you questioning their methodology or asking how they get there?
 
How they get there is this:
 
First, project record the rest of the way for all teams based on expected performance of players and team, including yearly performance to date.  
Second, with that projected record, find odds of entering playoffs as WC or Division winner.
 
(This is done through thousands of simulations)
 
Third, from playoff seeding, determine chances of winning each series.
 
Add up all of those chances.
 
Just to demonstrate, the actual methods for calculating the projected records is illustrated above, and the playoff winning odds I use below are easy calculation as opposed to what they would use.
 
So, let's say they give the Sox a 5% chance of being WC2, 10% chance of being WC1, and 20% chance of winning the division. 
 
WC2 is 40% chance to win play-in.  So with that option they have 2% chance to make ALDS.
WC1 is 60% chance to win play-in, So with that option they have 6% chance to make ALDS.
division ia 100% chance to win play-in, So with that option they have a 20% chance to make the ALDS.
 
We'll say no matter what they will be the visiting team in the ALDS and ALCS (just for simplicity of this post)
 
So there is a 28% chance of them making the ALDS.  Say 45% to win that so 12.6% chance they get to ALCS.  Say 40% to win that, so overall a 5% chance of winning ALCS.

 

[benhogan]

Barnes can't get major league hitters out and Cecchini is having a Napoli season in triple A. I don't think either of those chips have value. Like the rest of it though.

If I'm Milwaukee or any team out of it, that plays in a low pressure baseball environment, I'm calling Boston constantly trying to pick off Jackie Bradley Jr.  
 
JBJ is basically one of the 5 best fielding OFers in MLB and is 2nd in OBP and 2nd in OPS in the International league.  JBJ is also pretty well blocked from playing CF with several long term answers for the Sox.  Betts has a firm hold as the starting CF, Castillo is the highest paid Triple AAA CF, All-Star Brock Holt can adequately back up CF, highly rated prospect Margot looks decent at AA, and recently the Sox spent their #1 pick on CF.  So the Sox could be motivated to move JBJ, even though he has obvious potential.
 
For Milwaukee, JBJ is worth the gamble for a set-up lefty reliever(Will Smith) that will start costing more then ML minimum next season.  Its a good/fair deal for Milwaukee.  
 
OR Milwaukee could add several other 'buy low' Sox prospect like Barnes, Cecchini, Brentz, Coyle  (all high draft picks with some Minor league success), its not a bad way to start rebuilding on the cheap. 

 

[Rovin Romine]

First, project record the rest of the way for all teams based on expected performance of players and team, including yearly performance to date.  
Second, with that projected record, find odds of entering playoffs as WC or Division winner.
 

 
It's true that the only things that matter are "where we are right now" and "what's likely to happen next."  It's also true that the Sox have a bunch of underperformers with potential on the roster.  I wonder, given a small run of games, how much a swing in individual performances (or the classic lighting in a bottle situation with a reliever or call up) would affect the standings. 
 
I'm getting interested again, despite myself.  

 

[AB in DC]

 
Projections (particularly, ZiPS I believe). Take today's record and add it to RoS projected winning %. ZiPS believes Sox players have underperformed/been somewhat unlucky. Based on this, they have Sox at .540 Win% RoS.
 
 

 
If these are preseason projections, I don't think this is particularly useful.  If players are underperforming their projections for half a season, that's pretty good evidence that the projections were off.

 

[AB in DC]

 
The division is relatively close.

 
Yep, the AL East is right back to where most people were expecting at the start of the year.  Per BP, the first-place team is projected at 85 wins, and the last place team is projected at 80 wins.  No other division is clustered that tightly.

 

[smastroyin]

 
If these are preseason projections, I don't think this is particularly useful.  If players are underperforming their projections for half a season, that's pretty good evidence that the projections were off.

 
FG is generally more favorable toward the Red Sox this year, but I believe both they and BP adjust expected WP based on actual performance of the players thus far.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

 
If these are preseason projections, I don't think this is particularly useful.  If players are underperforming their projections for half a season, that's pretty good evidence that the projections were off.

The RoS in czar's post stands for Rest of Schedule. And what smas posted.
Google is your friend here. Use it please.

 

[ivanvamp]

 
Is this you questioning their methodology or asking how they get there?
 
How they get there is this:
 
First, project record the rest of the way for all teams based on expected performance of players and team, including yearly performance to date.  
Second, with that projected record, find odds of entering playoffs as WC or Division winner.
 
(This is done through thousands of simulations)
 
Third, from playoff seeding, determine chances of winning each series.
 
Add up all of those chances.
 
Just to demonstrate, the actual methods for calculating the projected records is illustrated above, and the playoff winning odds I use below are easy calculation as opposed to what they would use.
 
So, let's say they give the Sox a 5% chance of being WC2, 10% chance of being WC1, and 20% chance of winning the division. 
 
WC2 is 40% chance to win play-in.  So with that option they have 2% chance to make ALDS.
WC1 is 60% chance to win play-in, So with that option they have 6% chance to make ALDS.
division ia 100% chance to win play-in, So with that option they have a 20% chance to make the ALDS.
 
We'll say no matter what they will be the visiting team in the ALDS and ALCS (just for simplicity of this post)
 
So there is a 28% chance of them making the ALDS.  Say 45% to win that so 12.6% chance they get to ALCS.  Say 40% to win that, so overall a 5% chance of winning ALCS.

Yeah thanks. That's what I was asking.

 

[AB in DC]

The RoS in czar's post stands for Rest of Schedule. And what smas posted.
Google is your friend here. Use it please.

 
You misread my post.  I was asking about how they projected the RoS record.  If they're just using preseason ZiPS to project RoS, then you're missing the fact that we now have evidence that ZiPS numbers may be too high.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

On Over the Monster, Marc Normandin throws out the name Yonder Alonso, which I find intriguing. He speculates that the Padres will find Alonso expendable since they have players who will need to move to first sooner or later. Alonso doesn't have great power numbers for a first baseman, but bear in mind that he plays in San Diego and he's much better on the road - still not great, but better. He's still under control for next year the next two years, also, so they could evaluate whether they'd want him to stick around. As my own speculation, Jackie Bradley seems like a great fit for San Diego since they don't really have a proper CF right now. I doubt he gets it done on his own, but it's a start.

 

[bosockboy]

I wonder how aggressive Jocketty would get to unload Votto. Not sure the Sox could take that contract to get a Chapman thrown in for lesser prospects, but a .400 obp to replace Napoli would make the lineup devastating.

 

[Manramsclan]

 


 
Mike Antonellis @seadogsradio


Miguel Celestino has been traded to the Cincinnati Reds


 
 
Smoke regarding a bigger deal?
 
Edit: I can not get this to format properly. Sheesh

 

[WenZink]

I wonder how aggressive Jocketty would get to unload Votto. Not sure the Sox could take that contract to get a Chapman thrown in for lesser prospects, but a .400 obp to replace Napoli would make the lineup devastating.

 
Votto is owed over $200 million through 2023 (with club buyout in '24), so I'm sure Jocketty would move him a NY minute.  But throwing in Chapman to move him would be very PR-difficult in a baseball-saavy town like Cin.  Besides, no way the Sox would take on much of Votto's deal, now that the offense looks so much better going forward.  And Chapman just has one more year of club control.

 

[MikeM]

 
Votto is owed over $200 million through 2023 (with club buyout in '24), so I'm sure Jocketty would move him a NY minute.  But throwing in Chapman to move him would be very PR-difficult in a baseball-saavy town like Cin.  Besides, no way the Sox would take on much of Votto's deal, now that the offense looks so much better going forward.  And Chapman just has one more year of club control.

 
Plus Votto turns 32 in September.
 
If i still have faith in Ben with anything, it's staying away from those type of especially extreme contract commitments. 

 

[E5 Yaz]

Mike Antonellis ‏@seadogsradio  29m29 minutes ago
The Miguel Celestino trade is a minor league deal, he’s heading to their AA club.

 

[Devizier]

I would rather the Sox trade for Pujols (not happening!) than Votto at this point.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

maybe getting an International slot for Celestino?  They did that yesterday with another "prospect"

 

[ALiveH]

With the new postseason seeding system it's foolish to be a buyer unless you have a good chance of winning your division.  It's a bad allocation of resources to barely sneak into the playoff as a 4-5 seed, where your odds of winning it all are basically 1/2 of the 1-3 seeds (I'm assuming odds of winning the 1-game playoff is very close to 50%).  If our reasonable best case scenario even with reinforcements is sneaking in as a 4-5 seed I'd rather conserve our bullets for next year, i.e., not be a buyer or seller this year - just look for opportunities to take advantage of smart value trades on either side.

 

[Plympton91]

Yeah this is where I am at too. I am not seeing any sense in a deal where we move any top prospect to marginally increase the long odds at a play-in game especially given the additional pay roll constraints that would come with it. We have 3 WS in the last 10 years, we should not feel desperate about making the play-offs this year. The idea again is to build a team that wins 95 a year, which means you cant compromise the future every year for minimal increases in the odds of squeaking into the play-offs with a mediocre team. On top of it, I just dont see any surplus minor leaguers of any value who it makes sense to move because they are blocked.

 
1. Who said anything about a play in game.  They are just as close to the Division as they are to the wild card, and the teams in the Division are weaker than the wild card teams, probably.
 
2. There may be 3 world series in the past 10 years, but there are also 3 last place finishes in the past 4 years.  Losing is contagious, and garbage time production is not as good a learning experience.  I'd rather have Betts, Bogaerts, and Swihart playing meaningful games this September than playing out the string again.
 
3. They haven't compromised the future in any year of the past 5; part of the reason they collapsed in 2011 was because they scrimped on prospects at the deadline and didn't acquire enough pitching to get through the last 2 months.  They probably could have traded Reddick for a quality starter and used Nava in RF for August and September.  Instead, they watched Reddick slump and then dumped him for damaged goods.
 
4. How do Castillo, Betts, Bradley, and Margot all fit in the same outfield?  How do Porcello, Miley, Buchholz, Owens, Rodriguez, Wright, and Johnson all fit into the same rotation?  How do Vazquez, Swihart, and Hannigan all fit into a 2016 roster?  At some point, you have to cash in future potential value for current needs.  Two winters ago they probably could have traded Cecchini and Workman for a huge return, now where are they?

 

[Sampo Gida]

SPing is still the teams biggest need.  Clay is on pace to do something he never has before, which is break 200 IP.   Eduardo has 94 IP, only 25 IP away from last year although 50 IP from his high in  2013.  So he may be looking at some kind of IP limit come September.    The 5th spot is a question mark as well. 
 
Also, a platoon option at 1B against RHP'ers, assuming Napoli does not straighten out soon.   I wish that could be Papi but that seems a bit risky.
 
I think the AL East is wide open and whomever does the best job of filling their holes at the deadline (externally or internally), and avoiding significant injury, takes the prize.  Can't do anything about the latter, but no team has the resources to beat the Red Sox in making a significant acquisition at the deadline.   Never did buy the idea that selling was an option after doing this 2 of the last 3 years.   Thats for losers , except under exceptional circumstances from time to time like in 2012. 

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I have no interest in them spending significant assets to buy in an attempt to garner a WC spot. And short of a sweep of the Yankees this weekend combined with big losses by the rest of the division, I don't see a reliable expectation to contend for the division. Not that far out but too many teams to leap over in either race and the WC gets you one game. So I don't think they should be doing anything other than dipping toes in the water for a cpl more weeks.

Ride out the month. If you're in a legit spot to contend make a trade for a 1B or some bullpen pieces. Otherwise, call it a day.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

 
 
 
2. There may be 3 world series in the past 10 years, but there are also 3 last place finishes in the past 4 years.  Losing is contagious, and garbage time production is not as good a learning experience.  I'd rather have Betts, Bogaerts, and Swihart playing meaningful games this September than playing out the string again.
 

You say this a lot.  Help me understand it.

 

[In my lifetime]

I have no interest in them spending significant assets to buy in an attempt to garner a WC spot. And short of a sweep of the Yankees this weekend combined with big losses by the rest of the division, I don't see a reliable expectation to contend for the division. Not that far out but too many teams to leap over in either race and the WC gets you one game. So I don't think they should be doing anything other than dipping toes in the water for a cpl more weeks.

Ride out the month. If you're in a legit spot to contend make a trade for a 1B or some bullpen pieces. Otherwise, call it a day.

At this point, if the RS sweep the MFYs they would be 2.5 back of first place. That is regardless of what every other team does. So they don't need big losses by the rest of the teams in the division. Being a game to three games with half a season to go is certainly not insurmountable irrespective of how many teams are ahead of them.

But first things first, sweep or at least win the series against the MFYs. Going into the break 2.5 to 4.5 back would have been an unrealistic goal just 2 weeks ago and now all it requires is winning 2 of 3.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

We're going to spend the next three weeks trying to stay in the race and trying a couple internal solutions for positions of need.
 
After the break, the sucking hole at first base will probably be addressed by a Nava-Napoli platoon, with both of them having one last chance until the deadline to show that they can be productive. If either still stinks, they will be replaced. Any replacement should be cheap, since they will only be a platoon first baseman. A decent major league scouting department should be able to identify a cheap player for that role fairly easily. 
 
The sucking hole in RF has already been addressed for now, with Victorino and De Aza covering it. Both have the potential of falling off in the second half, but we have Castillo in AAA, so maybe he plays well and earns some playing time there. Holt, Bradley and Nava are LH options who can also play there if needed.
 
Catcher could be an issue, as Hanigan hasn't played fulltime very often. If they think Swihart is ready to be a part-time catcher and that his development wouldn't be hurt by it, then they could use him to limit Hanigan's playing time. But they like Leon with Buchholz and probably don't want to mess with that right now. A veteran catcher who is known for pitch-calling and working with pitchers might be a good deadline pickup if they want Swihart to stay in AAA. Those kind of catchers usually can't hit at all, and probably shouldn't cost much to pick up. Basically a Sandy Leon type with a lot more experience. 
 
I am hoping they move Kelly to the bullpen in AAA and see if he can be the power arm there that we can use. Maybe only pitching one inning at a time will help him with his command. He should only need to command two pitches in that role and only face a handful of batters at a time, so maybe he would be better there. That is also the hope for Masterson as a reliever but I don't expect much from him. A reliable bullpen arm would be a big help, and we will probably bring one in later in the month.
 
For starting pitcher internal options, we have Johnson in AAA and also Wright. Neither is going to be any kind of ace, but maybe one could beat the 6.00-ish ERA we have gotten from Porcello, Masterson and Kelly's slots in the rotation this year. Rodriguez has filled one of those slots and Porcello is still in his, but a 4.50-ish, 4.25-ish ERA from the other slot going forward would be a huge help. Starting pitching is usually expensive to pick up at the deadline, so I hope we don't buy anyone there (unless maybe you could get someone like Latos for less than expected.)
 
We shouldn't be buying anything in the next couple weeks, and at the deadline only if we are within 3 or 4 games of the playoffs and the internal solutions for a position of need have failed. Even then we should probably only make tweaks, like adding a bullpen arm or a guy who doesn't cost much in terms of prospects. 
 
The team has gotten back into the race through internal options playing better (plus De Aza who was another team's DFA.) That should be the plan for the second half too. Internal options and a couple very cheap pickups.

 

[benhogan]

 
 
4. How do Castillo, Betts, Bradley, and Margot all fit in the same outfield?  How do Porcello, Miley, Buchholz, Owens, Rodriguez, Wright, and Johnson all fit into the same rotation?  How do Vazquez, Swihart, and Hannigan all fit into a 2016 roster?  At some point, you have to cash in future potential value for current needs.  Two winters ago they probably could have traded Cecchini and Workman for a huge return, now where are they?

Interesting point/question.  
 
What should we be SELLING?
 
Sitting on prospects and letting them rot at AAA, then dumping them for peanuts seems to happen to us more then we like (Alex Wilson is the latest example of this) 
 
I made the case for selling JBJ above, so I'm with you to a certain degree. 
 
Sounds like you are comfortable moving Swihart or a young pitcher.  You want to make any suggestions on what we should buy with our young talent?