What do you want Pats to do with #3?

[Arroyoyo]

I think what gets me is when people say “if we trade out of #3, next year is a horrible draft class for QB so we’re screwed.” It’s as if in August 2023 the vast majority of draft pundits thought anyone except Williams and Maye would be high picks in 2024. Yet now there are 5-6 guys that may go top 20.

Every year another 3-4 guys, based on what they do between September and December, work up into the first round. This year it was Daniels, JJ, and probably Nix and Penix. Next year there will be another group of guys who “worked their way up.”

I don’t think we can fear what’s “not there” in 2025 when there’s still a full season of college football to be kicked off between now and then.

If they can get three firsts for #3, especially from a team like Minnesota who doesn’t have a real QB and if they get one the QB will be a rookie (so a potential 2025 pick should be mid round or higher), I think the Patriots have to take it.

With that capital, the Patriots could easily play the board and likely draft a #1 WR, OT, TE, and maybe a “lower tier” QB like Nix or Penix within the first 50 picks. If they want to wait on the QB with the 2025 capital, they could take another corner.

 

[Arroyoyo]

BTW with all of that said I wouldn’t be upset if they drafted Maye. I just prefer trading back IF three 1sts can be had.

But if they draft JJ at #3…

 

[Bigdogx]

If they have anyone offering them 3 #1's i would drive down to foxboro myself and slap the taste out of Wolf's mouth if he turned that down!

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

For the record, trading out of #3 overall when there are three potential franchise QBs in that particular draft means that the bidding for that top 3 pick BEGINS with three #1 picks. You don't do it for just the three. It's also ANOTHER pick day two. At least.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

Well obviously, but the same caveat applies for all of JJs TBD flaws that haven’t been found because he’s been in a system that protected him

He has 600 pass attempts in a pro style offense against some of the best defenses college football has to offer. The “coachable” stuff (footwork, mechanics etc) is on tape. With McCarthy the questions are much more intangible and projecting out his athleticism and overall ability in terms of what more he can give you in the pros in a more pass heavy situation/scheme

I don’t understand why people talk about McCarthy like he’s coming off of 200 career attempts in the MAC running some sort of niche offensive scheme.

I get that there are big questions about how he would do if he had to put up 50 attempts in a game and if the entire offense had to funnel through him. But in terms of throwing motion/mechanics, reading/processing and his overall skill set as a thrower and runner, I don’t know that 300 more attempts are going to show you anything that isn’t right there on tape.

 

[Bowser]

He's like 4.5 months younger than Maye. The arguments for McCarthy over Daniels make a lot of sense to me, not sure I 100% agree but I see them. McCarthy vs. Maye.... not as much, I just don't think I see anything on tape from McCarthy to put him over Maye, and Maye has physical advantages, while being basically the same age.

I wasn't trying to make an argument for McCarthy or against Maye, just underscoring the point made earlier that JJM has benefitted by his underutilization in college. Maye was asked to do more, and so we're more aware of what he can't do well, at least right now. McCarthy might have a fatal flaw, but to my mind it hasn't been exposed yet. Or maybe his fatal flaw is that he's just destined to be really, really meh.

 

[johnmd20]

I wasn't trying to make an argument for McCarthy or against Maye, just underscoring the point made earlier that JJM has benefitted by his underutilization in college. Maye was asked to do more, and so we're more aware of what he can't do well, at least right now. McCarthy might have a fatal flaw, but to my mind it hasn't been exposed yet. Or maybe his fatal flaw is that he's just destined to be really, really meh.

He doesn't have the arm like Maye does. Maye has legitimate arm talent. McCarthy objectively does not have the same level of talent.

McCarthy also played on a team that was stacked. Maye played on a team that was meh without him. Maye could be a franchise QB. McCarthy cannot, in my opinion.

 

[67YAZ]

Interesting to me that BB had a string preference for players from programs with similar coaching philosophies to his own - Pat Hill, Schiano, Urban Meyer for a little bit there, Saban for a long time there, and Harbaugh recently. If BB was around and Harbaugh was still in Ann Arbor, you know they’d discuss JJM and Bill would get some insider knowledge.

Wolf can certainly chat up the remaining Michigan staff that worked with JJ, but Harbuagh’s opinion would have most valuable. He’s spent so much time in the NFL that he can speak to JJM’s potential more perspective than anyone else. But, of course, he won’t now (or it just seems hugely unlikely that Harbaugh will help out his competitors with a detailed assessment just to do JJM a solid).

That said, I’m not sure I’d trust Mack Brown or Brian Kelly’s assessments of their own QBs. Not great track records.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

Interesting to me that BB had a string preference for players from programs with similar coaching philosophies to his own - Pat Hill, Schiano, Urban Meyer for a little bit there, Saban for a long time there, and Harbaugh recently. If BB was around and Harbaugh was still in Ann Arbor, you know they’d discuss JJM and Bill would get some insider knowledge.

Wolf can certainly chat up the remaining Michigan staff that worked with JJ, but Harbuagh’s opinion would have most valuable. He’s spent so much time in the NFL that he can speak to JJM’s potential more perspective than anyone else. But, of course, he won’t now (or it just seems hugely unlikely that Harbaugh will help out his competitors with a detailed assessment just to do JJM a solid).

That said, I’m not sure I’d trust Mack Brown or Brian Kelly’s assessments of their own QBs. Not great track records.

Isn't this how the Pats ended up with players like N'Keal Harry? Bill drafting players from Bill's friends since he had the "inside track"

For example: https://nesn.com/2021/04/bill-belichick-reportedly-ignored-patriots-scouts-when-drafting-nkeal-harry/

BB ignoring scouts due to his buddies in college.

 

[jtn46]

OK, the lies are piling up. But if they want JJM would they do it at three, or trade back and gamble?

I don't think they could trade back lower than 5th. If the Pats give up 3 to a team that picks Maye or Daniels it will mean their evaluation of McCarthy is that he is actually the third best QB in the class, and if that's their evaluation it's likely other teams will come to the same place, so a team will talk to the Chargers at 5, or the Giants will pick him at 6. (I want them to pick at 3 FWIW, even if that player isn't a QB)

 

[67YAZ]

Isn't this how the Pats ended up with players like N'Keal Harry? Bill drafting players from Bill's friends since he had the "inside track"

For example: https://nesn.com/2021/04/bill-belichick-reportedly-ignored-patriots-scouts-when-drafting-nkeal-harry/

BB ignoring scouts due to his buddies in college.

Well, it's also part of how BB drafted guys like Mankins, Barmore, Aaron Hernandez, MCCourty, Spikes, Uche, Mac and many, many more. It cut both ways. And who knows how many players BB didn't draft based on inside info...for better and worse.

In this case, I think it generally hurts JJM to not have Harbuagh available to talk at length with interested teams. I'm sure Harbaugh's opinion has been valued highly around the league when working up Michigan players in recent years. We can safely infer that it carried a lot of weight with BB.

Now, if I called up Mack Brown to ask about Maye and he said, "Best QB I've coached since Vince!" Man, I'd be running to the draft board to rip Maye's name of the list.

Edit: I don’t know if Mack Brown’s reputation (or the reality beneath it) have changed, but his Texas program was widely seen as a player friendly & star player indulgent one. If I’m assessing Wolf, I’m making a lot of calls around the UNC program to get a handle on how well and hard Maye has been coached as well as how rigorous his regimen has been. If UNC is as loose as those old Texas teams were, maybe there’s lots of upside left in Maye. Or maybe Maye has been pampered and won’t take well to NFL expectations. I think this intel is a lot more useful than the old “is he a leader of men” stuff.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

Well, it's also part of how BB drafted guys like Mankins, Barmore, Aaron Hernandez, MCCourty, Spikes, Uche, Mac and many, many more. It cut both ways. And who knows how many players BB didn't draft based on inside info...for better and worse.

In this case, I think it generally hurts JJM to not have Harbuagh available to talk at length with interested teams. I'm sure Harbaugh's opinion has been valued highly around the league when working up Michigan players in recent years. We can safely infer that it carried a lot of weight with BB.

Now, if I called up Mack Brown to ask about Maye and he said, "Best QB I've coached since Vince!" Man, I'd be running to the draft board to rip Maye's name of the list.

Edit: I don’t know if Mack Brown’s reputation (or the reality beneath it) have changed, but his Texas program was widely seen as a player friendly & star player indulgent one. If I’m assessing Wolf, I’m making a lot of calls around the UNC program to get a handle on how well and hard Maye has been coached as well as how rigorous his regimen has been. If UNC is as loose as those old Texas teams were, maybe there’s lots of upside left in Maye. Or maybe Maye has been pampered and won’t take well to NFL expectations. I think this intel is a lot more useful than the old “is he a leader of men” stuff.

Harmon, Ryan, Cunningham, Spikes, Cyrus Jones, and Deaderick were all “Bill’s buddies’ guys” for better (Harmon, Ryan, Deaderick and Spikes sort of) or worse (Cunningham, Jones)

I think there’s a lot of value in feeling like you know a guy’s personality, response to coaching, work ethic and the other intangibles which don’t always appear on tape. It helps you project

Did Bill go too hard with it? Perhaps. But Harry is such a bad example. He wasn’t a huge reach. He wasn’t a reach at all. Yeah, he stunk and a number of great receivers went after him. But it happens. The much heralded Howie Roseman drafted Jaelon Reagor one pick before Justin Jefferson.

And even if Harry was a bad pick because Bill
valued his buddy’s feedback too highly, I don’t see how that’s different than a bad pick for any other reason (value 3 cone or 40 time too highly, value scheme fit over skill, value upside over proven results, gambling on an injury risk to stay healthy).

Bill wanted guys who played a certain way, trained a certain way and could be coached a certain way. It’s easy to say “so and so would have been a better pick” but there’s no way of knowing how that guy would have panned out in New England. Overall, his reliance upon finding “his type of guys” was a winning strategy and was one of the biggest reasons for their 20 year run.

 

[snowmanny]

I think what gets me is when people say “if we trade out of #3, next year is a horrible draft class for QB so we’re screwed.” It’s as if in August 2023 the vast majority of draft pundits thought anyone except Williams and Maye would be high picks in 2024. Yet now there are 5-6 guys that may go top 20.

Every year another 3-4 guys, based on what they do between September and December, work up into the first round. This year it was Daniels, JJ, and probably Nix and Penix. Next year there will be another group of guys who “worked their way up.”

I don’t think we can fear what’s “not there” in 2025 when there’s still a full season of college football to be kicked off between now and then.

If they can get three firsts for #3, especially from a team like Minnesota who doesn’t have a real QB and if they get one the QB will be a rookie (so a potential 2025 pick should be mid round or higher), I think the Patriots have to take it.

With that capital, the Patriots could easily play the board and likely draft a #1 WR, OT, TE, and maybe a “lower tier” QB like Nix or Penix within the first 50 picks. If they want to wait on the QB with the 2025 capital, they could take another corner.

If there is no QB worth taking this year, OK. But the great likelihood is that that means there will not be a QB worth taking with whatever first round pick pick the Patriots have any time soon, and the answer at the position is more likely to be retreads or very limited QBs surrounded by better talent, or just blind random luck. A lot of teams live with that. I would rather have Brissett and Nabers (or three other guys) than waste the pick altogether.

 

[Cellar-Door]

If there is no QB worth taking this year, OK. But the great likelihood is that that means there will not be a QB worth taking with whatever first round pick pick the Patriots have any time soon, and the answer at the position is more likely to be retreads or very limited QBs surrounded by better talent, or just blind random luck. A lot of teams live with that. I would rather have Brissett and Nabers (or three other guys) than waste the pick altogether.

I feel like there are two defensible strategies at #3....

Pick the best QB on your board if you think he has a chance to be a franchise guy...
or
Trade back to load up on talent and don't take a QB in the top 100 picks.

To me the worst situations are....
Taking a non-QB in a consensus QB spot like #3
Trading down, but then wasting a premium pick on a QB who isn't a franchise prospect (Penix/Nix), Outside the top 100 is where you take your shot on a QB that will almost certainly fail to be NFL starter quality. That way you didn't pass on premium talent, and maybe you get a cheap high-end backup out of the pick.

 

[snowmanny]

I feel like there are two defensible strategies at #3....

Pick the best QB on your board if you think he has a chance to be a franchise guy...
or
Trade back to load up on talent and don't take a QB in the top 100 picks.

To me the worst situations are....
Taking a non-QB in a consensus QB spot like #3
Trading down, but then wasting a premium pick on a QB who isn't a franchise prospect (Penix/Nix), Outside the top 100 is where you take your shot on a QB that will almost certainly fail to be NFL starter quality. That way you didn't pass on premium talent, and maybe you get a cheap high-end backup out of the pick.

I agree. All these trade down scenarios where they get Nix and Penix seem wrong. There's no point in trading off of Nabers/MHJ/Alt to get a lesser talent plus a pretty certain QB fail.

 

[Justthetippett]

I feel like there are two defensible strategies at #3....

Pick the best QB on your board if you think he has a chance to be a franchise guy...
or
Trade back to load up on talent and don't take a QB in the top 100 picks.

To me the worst situations are....
Taking a non-QB in a consensus QB spot like #3
Trading down, but then wasting a premium pick on a QB who isn't a franchise prospect (Penix/Nix), Outside the top 100 is where you take your shot on a QB that will almost certainly fail to be NFL starter quality. That way you didn't pass on premium talent, and maybe you get a cheap high-end backup out of the pick.

I'm fairly certain this is what they are deciding between. It's why they hedged their bets with Brissett. Either bring in the guy you think is "the guy", or roll with Jacoby, rebuild elsewhere on the roster with premium guys at their positions and reevaluate in 2025. The teams that pick Nix/Penix will be, I think, the ones that don't have this option, like Denver, LV, NO, etc. If it was 2021, that would have been NE. Stuck in the middle.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

I think what gets me is when people say “if we trade out of #3, next year is a horrible draft class for QB so we’re screwed.” It’s as if in August 2023 the vast majority of draft pundits thought anyone except Williams and Maye would be high picks in 2024. Yet now there are 5-6 guys that may go top 20.

Every year another 3-4 guys, based on what they do between September and December, work up into the first round. This year it was Daniels, JJ, and probably Nix and Penix. Next year there will be another group of guys who “worked their way up.”

I don’t think we can fear what’s “not there” in 2025 when there’s still a full season of college football to be kicked off between now and then.

If they can get three firsts for #3, especially from a team like Minnesota who doesn’t have a real QB and if they get one the QB will be a rookie (so a potential 2025 pick should be mid round or higher), I think the Patriots have to take it.

With that capital, the Patriots could easily play the board and likely draft a #1 WR, OT, TE, and maybe a “lower tier” QB like Nix or Penix within the first 50 picks. If they want to wait on the QB with the 2025 capital, they could take another corner.

Yes, there will be guys that move up into the 1st round next year. The issue is that the draft pundits all seem to be saying the same thing, the QB class next year isn't strong. Could that change? Sure. Could the Pats be picking #1 overall next year? Not likely, but sure. They could have their pick of the litter and then have all of their draft assets from trading out of #3 this year.

But they could also win 6, 7, 8 games with Brissett at QB and be looking at a mid 1st next year, missing out on the few guys who are at the top of the rankings (i.e. next year's Caleb, Maye, Daniels, McCarthy). At that point, you're hoping the right guy falls to you or trade the picks you just got to move up. Unless you want next year's Nix or Penix? Free agency is difficult, top QB's rarely become available via free agency and when they do, they command big bucks.

So what do they do at QB if they trade #3? That's the issue people have that are saying "if we trade out of #3...we're screwed". And it's not that they're "screwed", it's just a lot harder. Do you trust a Penix or Nix or Rattler? Do you hope next year's class improves? Is there a current NFL QB who will hit the trade market or free agency?

I'd just like there to be some plan other than hoping that next year's class takes a big jump. There's no Caleb Williams next year. There might not be a Drake Maye, either. The top 3 guys all have major question marks right now (Sanders, Weigman, Allar) and there might not be another guy who's got a 1st round grade right now. That's a little scary when they're currently picking #3 in a 4 QB draft.

 

[SMU_Sox]

As an aside, I don't think Marvin Harrison Junior is the best WR prospect in the draft. Personally I think Malik Nabers is by a slim by comfortable margin. I will have the same grade for MHJr as I do for Rome Odunze who I also think has a bigger ceiling than Harrison. Not that I don't like Harrison Jr. He was the highest graded WR I looked at until I looked at Nabers and Odunze. For this offense Nabers or Odunze are better fits too.

Edit: by highest I looked at I mean since I started grading players. He is just a tick above Chase for me.

 

[djbayko]

If they have anyone offering them 3 #1's i would drive down to foxboro myself and slap the taste out of Wolf's mouth if he turned that down!

But won't the Patriots then be in a position where they need to make a similar Godfather offer next year or the year after? It's just kicking the can down the road. I suppose you do the trade this year if you really don't like the QBs that will be available at #3 this year, but it's not like we are going to net 3 first round draft picks out of this. It's more like we are going to get a draft haul this year and then give up a draft haul (or other developed assets) down the road -- possibly a wash (or worse). Meanwhile, you lose a year or so of developing your next gen QB.

 

[ManicCompression]

He has 600 pass attempts in a pro style offense against some of the best defenses college football has to offer. The “coachable” stuff (footwork, mechanics etc) is on tape. With McCarthy the questions are much more intangible and projecting out his athleticism and overall ability in terms of what more he can give you in the pros in a more pass heavy situation/scheme

I don’t understand why people talk about McCarthy like he’s coming off of 200 career attempts in the MAC running some sort of niche offensive scheme.

I get that there are big questions about how he would do if he had to put up 50 attempts in a game and if the entire offense had to funnel through him. But in terms of throwing motion/mechanics, reading/processing and his overall skill set as a thrower and runner, I don’t know that 300 more attempts are going to show you anything that isn’t right there on tape.

Against one of the best defenses he faced all year (Penn State), he threw 8 passes. Then 18 in the national championship game. If you're trying to understand how he'll do in the pros, you don't get as much information as other prospects because (and the reason for it doesn't matter) he usually had the training wheels on when the opponent was any good.

 

[twibnotes]

I get that some folks prefer Daniels or Maye, but I'm really surprised by the JJ hate. As someone who watched virtually all his games, I can't help but think some posters are going strictly off the stats and/or assuming the Michigan staff "didn't trust him."

A few thoughts:

• Harbaugh believes in winning the game through physicality - ask any Michigan fan b/c this was at times very frustrating (there were times where play action would be an easy TD, and Mich would run into a stacked box 4x in a row - Harbaugh wants to assert physical dominance)
• JJ came out of a lot of games early, which robbed him of a lot of stats. As an example, vs. Nebraska he went 12 for 16 for 125 yards and 2 TDs then was yanked after the first series of the second half - there was no Heisman campaign stat-building attempt - they were after a national championship, and he was happy with that
• We're not talking about AJ McCarron here. McCarthy was a 5-star guy who went to IMG. He's a 4.4 or 4.5 in the 40 and has a big arm - the ceiling is plenty high. Don't like him, fine...but if you argue it's bc he's anything remotely like Mac Jones, you are showing you haven't watch JJ play at all
• The other guys aren't slam dunks: look at what Daniels did at JJ's age. Go watch Maye's game vs. UVA (I never saw McCarthy play a game that bad)...all of them have question marks, even Williams
• The JJ "wasn't trusted" narrative just isn't accurate. He threw less, sure, but that's bc Mich has had excellent o-lines and backs. Further, a decent number of throws were in clear throwing situations (3rd and long), and he excelled in those situations - it's why pro scouts like him. JJ had relatively few easy throws on early downs b/c Michigan was very happy to run on first AND second down repeatedly, relying on JJ to keep drives alive on 3rd and 7...and he did.

In short, had Ryan Day had the good sense to take JJ (that was JJ's first school of interest), I'm confident he would be a top 2 pick in this draft. I think the notion that he is benefitting from the unknown is exactly wrong. With high volume in certain systems, he'd have monster numbers.

 

[snowmanny]

Adding to twib....I don't pretend to have anything close to the knowledge of many posters here, but re:JJ vs Mac, well Mac turtled under pressure instead of delivering the ball accurately even though he was about to get crushed OR getting out of there and making a different play. That's not McCarthy. Also, Mac came across as whining with mediocre leadership skills at best. That's not McCarthy either. That much is obvious even to me.

 

[SMU_Sox]

I don't think he would be a top 2 pick because JJ McCarthy has issues with accuracy on outside throws from a clean pocket. He sails balls. He also doesn't have deep accuracy from what I can tell but I saw maybe 4 shots total there. 0-4 but very small sample size. He can throw on the move and avoid sacks which is a plus but he doesn't excel from the pocket.

He was a tough eval.

Ultimately I had two main issues with him and a third which is minor. 1) Accuracy, 2) Decision making, and 3) there were games where he bailed early.

Mac was captain intangibles. Everyone said he was this great leader, hard worker, blah blah blah. The intangibles are always overblown this time of year. Granted I buy-in for JJ McCarthy.



This is Waldman's take which sums him up well to me. If he can fix his accuracy (in structure and with a clean pocket) and improve his decision making he has the traits to be a higher end QB. If he doesn't he might be out of the league soon. He's young so he has that going for him but fixing in structure accuracy with a clean pocket when your release and mechanics are good is hard to do. If it isn't a mechanical issue what is causing him to sail balls or miss his spots outside so much?

You could probably surround JJM with an elite cast in a Shanny/Kubiak style offense and he would produce for you. But can he elevate the guys around him? Will he maximize the opportunities he has in that system or will there be throws he can't make?

 

[rguilmar]

I don't think he would be a top 2 pick because JJ McCarthy has issues with accuracy on outside throws from a clean pocket. He sails balls. He also doesn't have deep accuracy from what I can tell but I saw maybe 4 shots total there. 0-4 but very small sample size. He can throw on the move and avoid sacks which is a plus but he doesn't excel from the pocket.

He was a tough eval.

Ultimately I had two main issues with him and a third which is minor. 1) Accuracy, 2) Decision making, and 3) there were games where he bailed early.

Mac was captain intangibles. Everyone said he was this great leader, hard worker, blah blah blah. The intangibles are always overblown this time of year. Granted I buy-in for JJ McCarthy.

View attachment 80387View attachment 80387

This is Waldman's take which sums him up well to me. If he can fix his accuracy (in structure and with a clean pocket) and improve his decision making he has the traits to be a higher end QB. If he doesn't he might be out of the league soon. He's young so he has that going for him but fixing in structure accuracy with a clean pocket when your release and mechanics are good is hard to do. If it isn't a mechanical issue what is causing him to sail balls or miss his spots outside so much?

You could probably surround JJM with an elite cast in a Shanny/Kubiak style offense and he would produce for you. But can he elevate the guys around him? Will he maximize the opportunities he has in that system or will there be throws he can't make?

Didn’t Waldman’s pre-draft book just come out yesterday? That’s like reading the Old Testament in a day.

Anyways, after seeing your evaluation of the QBs as well as his, I’m really hoping to trade down for as many current and future picks as possible.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

I don't think he would be a top 2 pick because JJ McCarthy has issues with accuracy on outside throws from a clean pocket. He sails balls. He also doesn't have deep accuracy from what I can tell but I saw maybe 4 shots total there. 0-4 but very small sample size. He can throw on the move and avoid sacks which is a plus but he doesn't excel from the pocket.

He was a tough eval.

Ultimately I had two main issues with him and a third which is minor. 1) Accuracy, 2) Decision making, and 3) there were games where he bailed early.

Mac was captain intangibles. Everyone said he was this great leader, hard worker, blah blah blah. The intangibles are always overblown this time of year. Granted I buy-in for JJ McCarthy.

View attachment 80387View attachment 80387

This is Waldman's take which sums him up well to me. If he can fix his accuracy (in structure and with a clean pocket) and improve his decision making he has the traits to be a higher end QB. If he doesn't he might be out of the league soon. He's young so he has that going for him but fixing in structure accuracy with a clean pocket when your release and mechanics are good is hard to do. If it isn't a mechanical issue what is causing him to sail balls or miss his spots outside so much?

You could probably surround JJM with an elite cast in a Shanny/Kubiak style offense and he would produce for you. But can he elevate the guys around him? Will he maximize the opportunities he has in that system or will there be throws he can't make?

This is pretty much exactly the take I'm hearing from Evan Lazar as well, and over the years I've seen him be right more than not on draft prospects. JJ's full game tapes - not highlights or lowlights, full games - show a guy who is more likely a game manager with a decent floor, who may do well in a system surrounded by weapons. Somewhere in the general vicinity of Brock Purdy and what we once thought Mac Jones might be. With a stronger arm. To me that's just not a guy you take at #3 overall or even #10 overall and it's sure as shit not a guy you take over Drake Maye.

 

[ManicCompression]

I get that some folks prefer Daniels or Maye, but I'm really surprised by the JJ hate. As someone who watched virtually all his games, I can't help but think some posters are going strictly off the stats and/or assuming the Michigan staff "didn't trust him."

A few thoughts:

• Harbaugh believes in winning the game through physicality - ask any Michigan fan b/c this was at times very frustrating (there were times where play action would be an easy TD, and Mich would run into a stacked box 4x in a row - Harbaugh wants to assert physical dominance)
• JJ came out of a lot of games early, which robbed him of a lot of stats. As an example, vs. Nebraska he went 12 for 16 for 125 yards and 2 TDs then was yanked after the first series of the second half - there was no Heisman campaign stat-building attempt - they were after a national championship, and he was happy with that
• We're not talking about AJ McCarron here. McCarthy was a 5-star guy who went to IMG. He's a 4.4 or 4.5 in the 40 and has a big arm - the ceiling is plenty high. Don't like him, fine...but if you argue it's bc he's anything remotely like Mac Jones, you are showing you haven't watch JJ play at all
• The other guys aren't slam dunks: look at what Daniels did at JJ's age. Go watch Maye's game vs. UVA (I never saw McCarthy play a game that bad)...all of them have question marks, even Williams
• The JJ "wasn't trusted" narrative just isn't accurate. He threw less, sure, but that's bc Mich has had excellent o-lines and backs. Further, a decent number of throws were in clear throwing situations (3rd and long), and he excelled in those situations - it's why pro scouts like him. JJ had relatively few easy throws on early downs b/c Michigan was very happy to run on first AND second down repeatedly, relying on JJ to keep drives alive on 3rd and 7...and he did.

In short, had Ryan Day had the good sense to take JJ (that was JJ's first school of interest), I'm confident he would be a top 2 pick in this draft. I think the notion that he is benefitting from the unknown is exactly wrong. With high volume in certain systems, he'd have monster numbers.

It’s fine that those are the reasons he didn’t throw much in big games, but it doesn’t change the fact that he didn’t throw much in big games. It seems relevant that we don’t know what he’s like in a comeback, or when he’s under pressure, or when the defense doesn’t have to worry about the running game, or when his line is drastically outmatched from a talent perspective. That’s info we don’t have because of his circumstances, but we do have it - positive or negative - for the other QBs.

 

[twibnotes]

It’s fine that those are the reasons he didn’t throw much in big games, but it doesn’t change the fact that he didn’t throw much in big games. It seems relevant that we don’t know what he’s like in a comeback, or when he’s under pressure, or when the defense doesn’t have to worry about the running game, or when his line is drastically outmatched from a talent perspective. That’s info we don’t have because of his circumstances, but we do have it - positive or negative - for the other QBs.

The rose bowl was a notable and recent exception as was the game at Ohio state last year (when he was just 19). Made huge plays in those games, and the rose bowl was a comeback that included a 4th down conversion through the air

Everyone seems to think the Penn state game was the norm

 

[Cellar-Door]

\

The rose bowl was a notable and recent exception as was the game at Ohio state last year (when he was just 19). Made huge plays in those games, and the rose bowl was a comeback that included a 4th down conversion through the air

Everyone seems to think the Penn state game was the norm

I don't think anyone thinks it is the norm, but McCarthy threw far less on a per game basis than any other top QB prospect, he also threw a far larger percentage of his passes out of play action, and far fewer when trailing and in must throw situations. People watched plenty of McCarthy, he has some good tape, he has some bad tape, he has a lot of useless tape and a lot of tape handing off. He's basically never asked to carry his team, and that's going to be tough to evaluate against players who were asked to drag inferior rosters on their back.
McCarthy is like a basketball player who has nice 3pt percentages as a lesser option on a loaded team... he may be a guy who gets to the NBA and with a bigger role becomes a star because he keeps the shooting... but he may also be the guy who can't handle being the focus of the defense.... it's just hard to evaluate. Maye/Daniels/Caleb are the guys who were carrying teams with huge usage in college, those guys also don't always translate, but it's easier to evaluate.

 

[ManicCompression]

The rose bowl was a notable and recent exception as was the game at Ohio state last year (when he was just 19). Made huge plays in those games, and the rose bowl was a comeback that included a 4th down conversion through the air

Everyone seems to think the Penn state game was the norm

it’s not that it’s the norm, it’s that you’re forced to take a few plays and then project them into the NFL rather than a wealth of plays. No one is doubting that he flashed in moments, but every single prospect flashes in moments (remember Jamarcus Russell? Cardale Jones? Zach Wilson?). When you have more unknowns than other players, you can’t just fill in the blanks with positive projections.

edit for clarity

 

[Jeff Van GULLY]

I don't think he would be a top 2 pick because JJ McCarthy has issues with accuracy on outside throws from a clean pocket. He sails balls. He also doesn't have deep accuracy from what I can tell but I saw maybe 4 shots total there. 0-4 but very small sample size. He can throw on the move and avoid sacks which is a plus but he doesn't excel from the pocket.

He was a tough eval.

Ultimately I had two main issues with him and a third which is minor. 1) Accuracy, 2) Decision making, and 3) there were games where he bailed early.

Mac was captain intangibles. Everyone said he was this great leader, hard worker, blah blah blah. The intangibles are always overblown this time of year. Granted I buy-in for JJ McCarthy.

View attachment 80387View attachment 80387

This is Waldman's take which sums him up well to me. If he can fix his accuracy (in structure and with a clean pocket) and improve his decision making he has the traits to be a higher end QB. If he doesn't he might be out of the league soon. He's young so he has that going for him but fixing in structure accuracy with a clean pocket when your release and mechanics are good is hard to do. If it isn't a mechanical issue what is causing him to sail balls or miss his spots outside so much?

You could probably surround JJM with an elite cast in a Shanny/Kubiak style offense and he would produce for you. But can he elevate the guys around him? Will he maximize the opportunities he has in that system or will there be throws he can't make?

What’s your view on Joe Milton?

 

[twibnotes]

it’s not that it’s the norm, it’s that you’re forced to take a few plays and then project them into the NFL rather than a wealth of plays. No one is doubting that he flashed in moments, but every single prospect flashes in moments (remember Jamarcus Russell? Cardale Jones? Zach Wilson?). When you have more unknowns than other players, you can’t just fill in the blanks with positive projections.

edit for clarity

yeah that’s fair - I don’t deny he’s harder to scout. Just think some posters are failing to realize there is some serious athleticism and upside - he’s not mac jones

 

[ManicCompression]

yeah that’s fair - I don’t deny he’s harder to scout. Just think some posters are failing to realize there is some serious athleticism and upside - he’s not mac jones

Yeah, I agree he’s not anything physically like Mac Jones (much better tools) but Mac was also hard to separate from his situation. I can see the similarity in that sense.

 

[j44thor]

I think it is going to be exceedingly difficult for NE to trade down but not too far down. I don't think anyone before MN at 11 will be that interested in moving up. They all have QBs in place or in the case of NYG have a decent shot at landing one. After NYG I don't see a team looking to move up to 3 besides MN and if you drop all the way down to 11 you might miss out on the top 4 QBs, top 3 WR, top 2 T and are looking at Brock Bowers as probably your best value on offense. Tough to sell coming away with a TE as your first pick when you had the #3 overall pick.

Chicago fleecing CAR last year and ATL landing Cousins really shook up the top of the draft. It is rather odd that you have so many teams with established QBs drafting this high, AZ, LAC, ATL, NYJ and CHI at 9 isn't taking two QBs. TN also appears to be giving Levis the starting gig next season which means 6 of the top 10 teams in the draft aren't looking at QB.

 

[sal16cal]

If there is no QB worth taking this year, OK. But the great likelihood is that that means there will not be a QB worth taking with whatever first round pick pick the Patriots have any time soon, and the answer at the position is more likely to be retreads or very limited QBs surrounded by better talent, or just blind random luck. A lot of teams live with that. I would rather have Brissett and Nabers (or three other guys) than waste the pick altogether.

Guys they’re taking a QB. The defacto GM knows exactly what the owner wants. Eliot’s really gonna gamble his job on finding a QB next year if they don’t take one this year. I really don’t get the logic of trading the pick because they have too many holes when the biggest hole is at QB.

 

[Silverdude2167]

I don't think he would be a top 2 pick because JJ McCarthy has issues with accuracy on outside throws from a clean pocket. He sails balls. He also doesn't have deep accuracy from what I can tell but I saw maybe 4 shots total there. 0-4 but very small sample size. He can throw on the move and avoid sacks which is a plus but he doesn't excel from the pocket.

Ok, I did not have an opinion on JJM till now...please god no.

I don't need to watch another QB who can't make outside throws or hit deep balls constantly.

 

[Dave Stapleton]

Hyperbole/oversimplification alert. Daniel’s potential flaws make him a bust. Mayes make him Brett Farve, Josh Allen or similar talented QBs that seem to have extreme talent, get their teams to a certain point but overdo it at times and cost the team.

Sign me up for Maye please. JJ hasn’t been asked to do anything requiring him to play hero. He never had to try to do too much on third down because a punt was a fine result knowing his defense would get him the ball back in most instances.

 

[Dave Stapleton]

Guys they’re taking a QB. The defacto GM knows exactly what the owner wants. Eliot’s really gonna gamble his job on finding a QB next year if they don’t take one this year. I really don’t get the logic of trading the pick because they have too many holes when the biggest hole is at QB.

I think we all agree the owner wants a QB and we will draft one. The question is which one. And an owner pushing for a QB to be drafted is at least defensible as not being an overreach. I would suggest that putting their thumb on the scape as to who would be a bad sign.

 

[Jungleland]

I’m coming around to wanting them to trade back to the Giants pick if Maye isn’t there. The low ceiling take on Daniels is incredibly depressing. At 6 you’re looking at multiple of Nabers, Odunze, Alt, and McCarthy still there and you’ve acquired extra draft capital to take a safer pick or at least hedge your risky QB pick. I wouldn’t trade all the way back to the Vikes pick unless Jefferson was coming in the deal, which I think we can all agree is a pipe dream.

Obviously it takes two to tango and j44thor’s assessment of that being harder than in past years is probably right, but I won’t be unhappy with a reasonable trade down.

 

[sal16cal]

I think we all agree the owner wants a QB and we will draft one. The question is which one. And an owner pushing for a QB to be drafted is at least defensible as not being an overreach. I would suggest that putting their thumb on the scape as to who would be a bad sign.

I know he has a ax to burn now. But Lombardi paraphrasing called Jonathon the defacto GM and he sees them going QB 3.

but I was more responding to the post saying they might not draft a qb top 100

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Field Yates 2-round mock (with trades) at ESPN:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2024/insider/story/_/id/39854812/2024-nfl-mock-draft-field-yates-two-rounds-64-picks-predictions

After Williams and Daniels go 1-2, he has the Pats taking Maye at 3 and WR Xavier Legette at 34.

I am firmly of the belief that the Patriots should not trade down from this pick and should take a quarterback, regardless whether it is Maye or Daniels. Maye has the ideal quarterback build at 6-foot-4 and 223 pounds, a massive arm and very, very good mobility. While he had a lesser year in 2023 compared to 2022, I still see all the traits for him to be a franchise quarterback. And New England needs one after finishing 30th in yards per attempt last season (6.1). The Patriots must use the rest of this draft to surround Maye with wide receiver and offensive line help.

New lead decision-maker Eliot Wolf has talked about adding playmakers to the New England offense, and at 6-foot-1 and 221 pounds, Legette would bring physicality and explosion. He had 1,255 yards last season and is an outstanding run-after-catch player.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I go round and round on this question and my best guess is that I hope the Pats take Maye at 3.

I don't know enough to know if that's a good decision though.

 

[tims4wins]

I go round and round on this question and my best guess is that I hope the Pats take Maye at 3.

I don't know enough to know if that's a good decision though.

We are all SJH (well aside from the true experts on here)

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

We are all SJH (well aside from the true experts on here)

I read he's going to be Justin Herbert, then I read he's going to be Daniel Jones, then I read he's going to be Zach Wilson.

I have no idea anymore. I see his highlights and his age and his lack of injuries and I'm like "OK, I'll take him." No idea how good he'll be.

 

[SMU_Sox]

What’s your view on Joe Milton?

If I ever needed a QB to throw a football to the moon I would draft him. Snark aside, I don't think he has the mental traits needed. Love the arm power though.

 

[rodderick]

I read he's going to be Justin Herbert, then I read he's going to be Daniel Jones, then I read he's going to be Zach Wilson.

I have no idea anymore. I see his highlights and his age and his lack of injuries and I'm like "OK, I'll take him." No idea how good he'll be.

Yup. Bet on the traits and see how it goes. I'm bullish because I think his footwork is the main issue driving the lack of accuracy, but I do worry they'll have to make some upper body adjustments so his delivery gets tighter and the ball isn't as late as it tends to be. Either way, Maye is the prototype, trust your staff to develop him.

 

[BaseballJones]

I read he's going to be Justin Herbert, then I read he's going to be Daniel Jones, then I read he's going to be Zach Wilson.

I have no idea anymore. I see his highlights and his age and his lack of injuries and I'm like "OK, I'll take him." No idea how good he'll be.

I know what I want them to do, but my credibility as a QB evaluator went right in the crapper when I was all in on the Mac Jones pick. I know lots of people get these things wrong - including some of the best NFL evaluators on the planet - but still. I really swung big and missed on that one. UGH.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I know what I want them to do, but my credibility as a QB evaluator went right in the crapper when I was all in on the Mac Jones pick. I know lots of people get these things wrong - including some of the best NFL evaluators on the planet - but still. I really swung big and missed on that one. UGH.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Projecting QBs is so damn hard. With Maye we don't know so much that teams have access to. I mean all these guys teams get to ask questions about their play that we can only dream of asking.

For example, teams can ask Maye (and/or his coaches) about his NC State tape. "Drake, your first read is this crosser, right? [Drake nods] Well he's open here and you double clutch, why?" "Drake you seem to drift into this sack here. What are they teaching you footwork wise? You didn't do this in high school." (his high school tape he had cleaner footwork and delivery!)

With JJM you might ask him why he didn't choose to push the ball downfield when he had the opportunities to. Was it because his Harbaugh told him to just manage the games because Michigan was going to run the ball down other team's throats?

With Jayden Daniels, did he scramble and was he so impatient in the pocket because he was trying to play hero ball? Was he instructed to do a 1 read and run? Can he play with more patience in the pocket? Can he learn to slide and/or avoid hits as a runner more?

We can do one for Caleb but what's the point he's gone at 1,1. With Penix teams have access to his medicals and we don't and those are huge for him. And with Bo Nix, I think he is more or less a finished product and that product is a high end backup QB who can spot start. I don't know what I would ask Nix.

You'd be surprised how honest these guys can be in Q&As with teams. Daniels might tell them that he is a run finisher and he likes to plow into people. He might even let them know that BK told him to just go into scramble mode and take the easy 15 yards vs hang in the pocket. BK might confirm that and tell the NFL team who asked, "Yeah I told him to run - our defense stunk last year and we needed to just stay on schedule and pick up first downs, extend drives, etc." None of this will come out to the public though. Some of these answers can help an NFL team know how projectable growth is at the next level. It doesn't excuse bad tape but it can give teams an idea if something is perhaps easier to change than at first glance. You're still talking low odds because we're talking QBs. And even with answers it doesn't solve the question of how projectable growth is but it helps.

 

[SMU_Sox]

You are going to miss more than you are right on QBs and sometimes for things out of your control like landing spot, BBJ. I wouldn't even worry about it. It's more the process of your eval and did you see the potential pitfalls vs did you guess the coinflip of whether or not he could overcome them.

 

[rodderick]

I think what they can't do is pick a guy and have him fail due to flaws that were perceived as strengths coming out, as they did with Mac. If they go Maye at 3 and he doesn't work out because he's inaccurate, drifts into pressure, is late with the ball, I'm fine with it, shit happens, you thought it was fixable or that the strengths would compensate for the flaws and they didn't. Mac being late with his progressions, having awful mechanics and pocket presence and not being a good leader is just a fatal flaw in the evaluation.