What do you want Pats to do with #3?
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
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Yeah, meeting with Penix at this point after not having done all due diligence on him before just screams "we're open for business, so better be prepared", which I hate. If Maye is on the board and they don't take him I'm going to be in a dark place.
Don’t discount the mystery team. Unlikely but possible. The Giants would be a much better trade partner for the Pats than the Vikings if you can get the 2025 1st rounder.
I wonder if it was a response to some of the WAS stuff. For example, lets say you have been going through the process assuming Daniels goes 2 and you have Maye or trades XYZ on the table.... suddenly you start to get doubts that WAS is taking him based on their actions... now your options may be Daniels or trades ABC... if you had Maye higher, or ABC are more attractive offers than XYZ... or both.... now you might want to take a look at Penix, whether to see if you want him later (23, 34, neither excite me, but they may want to take a look) or to show teams that you're more serious about potentially moving back.
Bringing in Penix for a visit as due diligence in case of a trade down makes sense to me. You may or not take a flyer on a QB later in the draft so you should have a close look at the guys who are candidates.
I can't imagine a scenario where trading down to Minnesota with the intent of picking Penix at 11 would make any sense whatsoever. You've basically given up a shot at an elite QB prospect while also kneecapping your ability to acquire elite talent at another position.
I like Lazar a lot in general but sometimes he pulls out some serious head scratchers and this seems like one.
I can't imagine a scenario where trading down to Minnesota with the intent of picking Penix at 11 would make any sense whatsoever. You've basically given up a shot at an elite QB prospect while also kneecapping your ability to acquire elite talent at another position.
I like Lazar a lot in general but sometimes he pulls out some serious head scratchers and this seems like one.
If the Pats aren’t enamored with whoever is left at 3, the Giants at 6 are an intriguing proposition for a trade. They could go McCarthy (Cards and Chargers aren’t taking him, but Vikings could move up), or pick up Nabers/Alt/Odunze, and then get back into the end of the first to snag Penix.
That basically entails what I want out of this draft. I am fine if they take Maye 3, but I do really like Penix. Guy can throw really well, and I love how adept he is at avoiding pressure. His 7.6% sack rate is largely attributed to his quick release, but I watched a lot of his games this year and he was very adept at sidestepping rushers, or understanding exactly how much time he had to throw the ball. It didn’t seem fluky to me, but I am not evaluating him like many here are able to do. After watching Mac have the a sixth sense for finding the opposing teams defenders in the pocket, I am obviously more attracted to a guy who seems like he is pretty good at not doing that. I just don’t know the right time to take him, but based on the ridiculous amount of draft stuff I have read and listened to, it seems like taking him before, say, 23, would be foolish given how other teams are evaluating him.
If they do take Maye, I would like to see them trade back into the top of the 1st for Tyler Guyton. Then go WR 3-4 or even and 5 or 6 and hope that those Green Bay WR evaluation skills translate to Wolf in Foxboro.
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I can’t get the National title game out of my head re: Penix.
He’s extremely adept at placing low percentage throws downfield, and I like that he is willing to test the boundaries….but is that gonna work in the NFL when his elite receivers aren’t pantsing corners all over the field? He doesn’t move all that well, and I dunno if he can be efficient enough within 15 yards - where most of the hay is made in the NFL - to merit a high pick. And then you’ve got his significant major injury history.
I’ll pass.
He’s extremely adept at placing low percentage throws downfield, and I like that he is willing to test the boundaries….but is that gonna work in the NFL when his elite receivers aren’t pantsing corners all over the field? He doesn’t move all that well, and I dunno if he can be efficient enough within 15 yards - where most of the hay is made in the NFL - to merit a high pick. And then you’ve got his significant major injury history.
I’ll pass.
This isn't really any admission. This is exactly how sportsbooks work (besides the opening lines, which very quickly become old news). In fact, that's why opening lines typically have such low betting limits - it's an implicit admission by the bookies that they're just putting their best guess out there and expecting the betting public (and specifically profiled sharp bettors) to correct the odds for them through their betting action. Then the betting limits gradually rise as the event nears and the odds have time to solidify.
I haven't done any this year, but I've bet extensively on the NFL and NBA draft in the past. The odds pretty much reflect whatever the latest rumors are. The greater the respect for the source of the rumor, the greater the influence on the odds. A Schefter (NFL) or Woj (NBA) tweet moves lines immensely. There is sometimes line movement based on insiders, but that's more of the exception than the rule.
But rumors are often wrong, and sometimes misinformation is intentional. Woj got seriously punked on the #1 NBA pick a couple years back.
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I like Penix mostly because I think he can throw the hell out of the ball and will move more in the pros than he did in college, but I suspect his incredibly low pressure to sack rate, which would usually be the greenest of flags in my evaluation, was as much a product of his environment as Mac's was. Like Mac, I don't think his response to actual pressure is good at all. Were it not for the injury history, I'd pick him about 15 easily, but when you combine that with his age I think high in the second round is where he should be targeted.
Why does signing a contract with the team that drafted you any indication of hit or miss? That's a garbage stat.
"Second contract with the drafting team" seems like a weak measure. What if you trade a guy for a haul instead of resigning them, like the Jaguars did with Jalen Ramsey or the Dolphins did with Laremy Tunsil or the 49ers did with DeForest Buckner (to cite a few examples)? Those guys shouldn't count as busts.
PArt of it is that as we've discussed before, 2nd contract with a team is a terrible metric.
As an example... the Daniel Jones horrible contract counts as a "hit" but the following are "misses"
Hollywood Brown- 3 years as BAL #1 WR then traded for a better 1st than they one they drafted him at
DJ Moore- #1 WR with 3 straight 1100+ yard seasons then traded in a package for the #1 pick
Calvn Ridley- good WR, including and AP team, then traded
Amari Cooper- very good WR, traded for a 1st
OBJ- Excellent WR, traded for a massive haul including a 1st
Brandin Cooks- Very good WR then traded for a 1st+
Now, the bust rate is way higher than people remember, but the stat is garbage
I agree with you guys, but what objective measure would you suggest by which to evaluate hits or misses in the draft?
I did a bunch of analysis in a prior thread a year ago, using different measures but I’m curious what you all would use.
Probably something like AV over average for draft slot over the first 5 years
I did some work on this in the draft forum that updated The Drafting Stages study on OT and WR. It is a lot harder to find a top 20 OT on day 2. WR has a much higher hit rate. I looked at yards per season and AP/PBs for WRs and the same thing but also PFF grade for OL.
This supports my position that the Patriot's (assuming no trades) draft order should be QB-OT-WR.
Pick 34 in a deep OL draft might just be high enough on day 2 to snag a solid NFL starter. If they don't slot any of the remaining 3rd round WR as a future #1, then I'd look at the best available RB or TE and wait until 2025 to draft WR1
If the Patriots trade down with the Vikings, what would be an acceptable offer to make that move?
I have seen 11, 23 and next years 1st round pick floated by members in the media. IMO, that's way too light. I would expect at least another first rounder and another premium pick...and even then I am not sure I would make that move.
IMO, the Vikings would have to give up 4 1st round picks and at least 2 3rds (because they don't have any 2nds coming up) in order to make this trade worthwhile.
What say everyone else?
I have seen 11, 23 and next years 1st round pick floated by members in the media. IMO, that's way too light. I would expect at least another first rounder and another premium pick...and even then I am not sure I would make that move.
IMO, the Vikings would have to give up 4 1st round picks and at least 2 3rds (because they don't have any 2nds coming up) in order to make this trade worthwhile.
What say everyone else?
What I'm hoping for is the Giants, Vikings, Broncos and Raiders to all panic and cause a round 1 run on QB. That should push at least one good OT prospect into day 2.
I wrote it in either this thread or another:
- 11
- 23
- 2025 1st
- 2026 1st or 2nd, or 2025 2nd
Worth noting that they already don't have a 2nd or 3rd rounder this year, so I have a hard time seeing them making this type of trade. It leaves them with such little draft capital.
Anything less and I reject. But on the flip side, I don't think I would need more than the above list. YMMV.
That would be substantially more than CAR gave up to move from 9 to 1 last year. They gave up 9/61/2024 1st/2025 2nd and DJ Moore.
DJ Moore is probably worth a mid 2nd given his age/contract requirements maybe you could convince me he is worth a very late 1st but regardless you are looking at 2-3 firsts max and a late 2nd and future 2nd and that was to secure #1 overall.
Perhaps 11/23, 25 1st and Addison would be an equal trade. I'd entertain that if Maye goes 2nd.
This reminds me of the stellar work that Philly did on the main page on the hit rate on MLB first rounders vs. all of the other draft slots. IIRC, he used bWAR or fWAR. It was staggering.
You raise a good point about WR hit rates being more spread out than the OT one (and everyone knows the QB hit rates).
Yup and yup.
If we stay at 3 and draft the QBOTF, and there's a huge run on OTs before 34, maybe all that's left is developmental guys. That would suck but is possible.
I'm going to continue to wishcast that the demand on OT and WR in deep drafts for both is somewhat constant and that we're still able to go QB-OT-WR and get starters. It's not crazy, but yes, it's also not guaranteed.
That would be a ridiculous overpay by Minnesota. We have a near identical comp from the 2022 draft. Trey Lance (#3) for #12, a 1 and 2 the next year and a 1 two years later.
#11, #23, 1st and 3rd in '25 and a 1st and a 3rd in '26 is malpractice if Minnesota even contemplates it. Minnesota then would not have any picks in rounds 1-3 thru 2026? ( I see they do have a 2nd in '25, though? and in '26?)
The question here becomes, do you try to trade back up into the late 1st for an OT? The 103rd pick is worth 88 points per the value chart, 34 is with 560, for a total of 648. That is equivalent to the 28th-29th pick.
And then you try to nab a WR at 68.
Or is the opportunity cost of giving up 103 too great - another chance to grab a WR or TE.
The thinking is that NEP also need a QB and therefore require a premium to move back. if you have a top 3 pick and don't need a QB you'd be far more willing to trade out. The supply and demand wrt picks and QB prospects is different in 2024 than in past years and I personally think justifies different compensation calculations.
Really asking....
But it seems like we are acting like a "Run on OTs" happens in a Vacuum. If that happens....after the inevitable run on Qbs....wont that mean some Really Good WRs are available? (Maybe even good enough to draft one at 34 and Trade up for another??)
Basically it sounds like "all" the good QBs, OTs and WRs will go in the first. With the Pats (barring something odd) getting a QB out of the deal
Is that what we are anticipating?
I mean no one takes a(/some) Edge, CB or Bowers?
But it seems like we are acting like a "Run on OTs" happens in a Vacuum. If that happens....after the inevitable run on Qbs....wont that mean some Really Good WRs are available? (Maybe even good enough to draft one at 34 and Trade up for another??)
Basically it sounds like "all" the good QBs, OTs and WRs will go in the first. With the Pats (barring something odd) getting a QB out of the deal
Is that what we are anticipating?
I mean no one takes a(/some) Edge, CB or Bowers?
Yes--that's why I don't think we can really be locked into an OT or WR at #34 because one of those spots is going to get drained of top 35ish talent, while the other will have some slide.
It is actually extremely similar to last year when we had 3 QBs go inside the top 4 picks and Will Levis rumored to go higher than he was ultimately drafted in the early 2nd. Also very similar to 2021 when QBs went went 1-3 and 5 QBs went in the first 15 picks. If anything 2022 is the outlier when only 1 QB went in the first, Pickett, and 3 more went in the 3rd, all 4 QBs are now backups at best.
The Pats do need a QB, but obviously if the guy they want is there at #3 they take him as you don't mess around. If they're talking about a trade, it's self-evidently because they don't think the guy available at #3 is their guy. The Vikes would be fools to pay that price, which would be crippling.
Regarding runs, I'm inclined to go with the flow on this as well, rather than trading up. It would be awesome to check all of the boxes in rounds 1-3, but the team has so many holes on offense that whatever guy we get at 103 is probably going to play.
If there's a run on either WR or OT, then we get someone at 34 at one of those positions that probably doesn't belong there and should have gone much higher. That's awesome. Good chance that it happens in round 3 then too. We need tackles badly, but drafting an elite receiver and another super productive receiver and a developmental guy like Fisher at 103 isn't exactly a terrible outcome either. It just means that we really fucking checked two boxes (QB and WR) and have to deal with OT next year via FA/trade/draft.
If there's a run on either WR or OT, then we get someone at 34 at one of those positions that probably doesn't belong there and should have gone much higher. That's awesome. Good chance that it happens in round 3 then too. We need tackles badly, but drafting an elite receiver and another super productive receiver and a developmental guy like Fisher at 103 isn't exactly a terrible outcome either. It just means that we really fucking checked two boxes (QB and WR) and have to deal with OT next year via FA/trade/draft.
I wouldn’t be surprised if only 5 WRs go in the 1st... But that's basically all 5 good X guys,
My sneaky feeling... Only 4 QBs round 1 and all the Penix and Nix round 1 smoke is Levis last year
I've gone back and forth at this point. Getting a top 3 pick is hard, and they just need to keep spamming QB until they land on one. But also they've so many holes that if Minny offers the 11, 23, 2025 1, 2026 1 package or something like that, that's an awful lot of cracks at WR, OT, and in the future QB.
You could also say they DO like the guy available at #3 and the ONLY way they would move is for a crazy offer. Which is why they won't move because Minnesota won't do that.
Except that in both cases the team trading back didn't need a QB. That's what I'm saying is different in 2024.
I can't wait for Friday so we can be done with this discussion and start the endless discussion about whether Drake Maye is the week 1 starter.
Joke’s on you. He won’t be either way!
Edit: I read your post incorrectly, but my point stands. I think it is Brissett no matter what.
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I guess I get to be the bearer of good news here, because we will find out tomorrow (Thursday)!
Starting to see more coalescing around the idea that 1-3 is basically chalk now. Folks got all their clickbait stuff out of the way and now are wanting to show that they know what's gonna happen.
Yeah i dont see any rookie being tossed into this dumpster unless he shines over the others in camp. Letting Brissett take the lumps this season would be best imo, ending up with another top 3 pick next year for me anyways is the ideal path forward for this franchise.
But the 2024 first is the #1 overall pick this year... you, as the Chicago Bears, could look at the Panthers adding Bryce Young and say to yourself, "Next year's pick is still going to by high AF" pretty confidently. We can't do that with Minnesota - if they add a good QB, next year's pick should be in the 15-25 range probably, which has signifcantly less value than even a top ten pick (as we see from trades for three).
We'd be giving a team their QB of the future. That should cost two 1s this year, next year's 1, and the year after's 1, plus some other day 2 picks. If we're only netting out two picks in the 20s, what is the point?
Agree with this. Any trade down premised having a Minny pick land in the top 10, much less the top 5, in 2025 or 2026 is suspect.
In other words, unless you’re genuinely down on Drake Maye/don’t feel conviction picking him, why the hell would you trade for a package that might, but might not, allow you to jump into position in 2025 or 2026 to draft a hypothetical QB you do really like but you can’t know will exist? You are probably not getting JJM if you fall back to 11, and I don’t see why settling for Penix and some added draft capital you realistically will hit on at a 50 percent rate or so is a better play.