What does Red Sox relief pitching look like in 2024?

johnnywayback · Aug 9, 2023

Great post. I think it's likely that one or more of those free agent arms will be available at a pretty steep discount when the music stops, but I would much prefer they sign two starters -- Sale, Bello, [really good free agent], [Paxton or another similar free agent], Crawford -- and try to start the year with Whitlock and Houck in the pen.

simplicio · Aug 9, 2023

Wyatt Mills seems like a pretty sure bet to be cut from the 40 man this winter.

chawson · Aug 9, 2023

Jansen / Martin / Schreiber / Bernardino / Winckowski (and Pivetta, depending) seems like a better relief corps heading into 2024 than we'll have had in a long time. I think if we compare against the top 5-6 bullpen arms on any team, a lot of people would be surprised how well they stack up.

There's some injury risk there, but that's true of anyone who throws a baseball nowadays. Jansen is fairly old, but he's also one of the most durable high-leverage relievers in modern baseball history. Martin has the 5th highest bWAR among relievers despite missing (or pitching hurt) all of April. Bernardino and Winckowski have really been tremendous. Schreiber's still missing about 1 mph of his fastball and sinker since last year, but I'm not especially doubtful it's gone forever.

Sandy Leon Trotsky · Aug 9, 2023

I'm pretty bullish on Murphy and Walters being mainstays in the pen for a while too and would prefer the latter being up on the ML club right now over the lower level drecks. I'm not feeling Drohan has a future as a starter (not saying they should abandon all hope right now at all!) but could see him making the transition to a 2 inning type successfully. I would put him in the mix along with Mata.

chawson · Aug 9, 2023

Anyone think there's a chance they pick up Joely's option? It's a $4.25M club option with a $500,000 buyout. Higher than we'd like to pay him but here are the other LHRP options (and their ages) in FA:

Hader (30)
Will Smith (34)
Loup ($7.5M club option) (36)
Matt Moore (35)
Chafin ($7.25M club option) (34)
Chapman (36)
Wandy Peralta (32)
Suter (34)
~~Bleier (37)~~
Hand (34)
Shreve (33)
Pomeranz (35)
some non-tenders TBA

Joely Rodriguez will be 32. He's a good pitcher when healthy, a 3.38 xFIP from 2020-22. Is it worth $3.75M to see if that guy can find his way back in 2024?

Sandy Leon Trotsky · Aug 9, 2023

Does anyone else sing "Jolene" when they see "Joely" or is it just me?

JM3 said:
Walter was just called back up today. I think he's just had a SSS lucky run as he has been pretty bad at AAA this year (5.74 ERA & 4.77 xFIP in 69 innings) & has a 5.41 xFIP with his 3.07 ERA & has a 5.52 K/9 for the Sox. I don't really expect him to be on the 40-man next year.

Drohan was dominant at Portland, but has had a drop off in stuff since his promotion. Not sure if something is going on physically, but hopefully he gets back to dealing. He'll need to be added to the 40-man, so it does make some sense if he contributes to the Sox next year it would be as a reliever.

Mata makes sense, too. Interested to see if he gets back before the end of the season. He's been throwing for a month or so now.

Who knows on Walter. Murphy wasn't really setting the world on fire in AAA either but other than his last time out was looking pretty solid. I'd prefer to continue to dip into the "failed starter/fringe AAAA starter" types than spend $3-$5M on questionable fungible talent.

begranter · Aug 10, 2023

JM3 said:
Some Potential Free Agents (stats after yesterday's games)
Yimi García (R) 4.37 ERA/3.02 xFIP (33) - $6m player option.

Nitpick, but I'm pretty sure Yimi is locked in at $6m next year having hit his appearance count threshold to vest his contract.

begranter · Aug 10, 2023

JM3 said:
I read it as having 3 tiers.

The 1st tier being a team option, the 2nd tier being a vested contract, & the 3rd tier being a player option.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/toronto-blue-jays/yimi-garcia-16092/

To reach tier 3, he needed 110 games or 110 innings across '22 & '23.

He has pitched 113 games (108.1 innings) over these 2 years, so I think it converts to a player option.

I could absolutely be misunderstanding something, though.

He gets two years, plus a team option is a $1 million buyout. He got a $1 million signing bonus (perhaps he wanted a one-bedroom condo in Toronto). He gets $4 inning 2022, and $5 in 2023, and the option year is at $5 million as well.
The option becomes a guaranteed contract for $6 million if he pitches 60 innings or 60 games in 2023 or 110 innings or 110 games between the two seasons. If he doesn’t reach any of those numbers, it is up to the team to take or decline the option year.

https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2022/4/26/22969560/better-know-your-blue-jays-40-man-yimi-garcia

Per the terms of the two-year deal Garcia signed with Toronto in November 2021, Garcia triggered the $6 million option since the relief appearance was his 110th between the 2022 and 2023 seasons. The 32-year-old right-hander will remain locked into a key late-inning role for the Blue Jays for the foreseeable future

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/blue-jays-yimi-garcia-under-contract-for-2024/

Probably a moot point anyway as it's unlikely the Jays wouldn't have picked up the option save for a catastrophic injury. It's a funky contract that's interesting in its own right.

AB in DC · Aug 10, 2023

Going into the season with a 36yo closer and a 37yo set up man is, umm, less than ideal. Seems like they either need to sign another top arm or convert Houck or Whitlock back to being a relief ace.

Sandy Leon Trotsky · Aug 10, 2023

AB in DC said:
Going into the season with a 36yo closer and a 37yo set up man is, umm, less than ideal. Seems like they either need to sign another top arm or convert Houck or Whitlock back to being a relief ace.

I really think Whitlock as a starter is done. I think it was worth a try, but I don't think his arm is good for 75+ pitches once per 5 days. He'll have limitations on his bullpen usage but with Murphy, Walters and potentially Mata... 2,3 inning outings should be covered.
I'd give Houck another stab at the rotation but with a quicker hook than Pivetta had to start the season.

simplicio · Sep 2, 2023

So for argument's sake, let's say Bloom spends on some starters this winter leaving us with a rotation of:
FA UriYamaNola
FA GioGrayMery
Bello
Sale
Houck

That leaves us a pen of:
Kenley
Martin
Schreiber
Winckowski
Whitlock
Bernardino
Pivetta
Crawford

With Crawford, Pivetta and Whitlock able to approximate a starter role if Bad Things Happen. Notably, this is super right handed! So we need another lefty. Jacques has been adequate but I'd much rather have him hanging in Worcester as a backup option. We have Joely available for a bit over $4m and it feels like a bit of an enigma about whether this season's injuries were indicative of health going forward or if he was truly just snakebit. The free agent market for LHRP does feel like either LOLno (Hader) or just a bit of a cross grade from what Joely already offers if healthy (Will Smith, Wandy Peralta, Brent Suter, etc).

I do wonder if this is a place they might go looking for trades. Miami in particular has a boatload of lefties: Tanner Scott (1 more year of control), AJ Puk (3), Andrew Nardi (5?), Steven Okert (3), who have all been good this year.

Any other targets out there?

Petagine in a Bottle · Sep 2, 2023

Pivetta seems like a trade candidate. Is he going to be happy working out of the pen in his final year before FA? Are the Sox interested in paying him ~$8M for that kind of role?

Chris Murphy has been pretty tough on lefties; could he be under consideration for a more traditional relief role, or too early to do that?

simplicio · Sep 2, 2023

Yeah, somebody from that list needs to leave to fit in another lefty. But does anyone want to trade for a Pivetta?

The way they've been using Murphy makes me feel like they're still hoping to make him a starter; I think his home is still in Worcester outside of situations where all our starters fail at once.

chawson · Sep 2, 2023

simplicio said:
So for argument's sake, let's say Bloom spends on some starters this winter leaving us with a rotation of:
FA UriYamaNola
FA GioGrayMery
Bello
Sale
Houck

That leaves us a pen of:
Kenley
Martin
Schreiber
Winckowski
Whitlock
Bernardino
Pivetta
Crawford

With Crawford, Pivetta and Whitlock able to approximate a starter role if Bad Things Happen. Notably, this is super right handed! So we need another lefty. Jacques has been adequate but I'd much rather have him hanging in Worcester as a backup option. We have Joely available for a bit over $4m and it feels like a bit of an enigma about whether this season's injuries were indicative of health going forward or if he was truly just snakebit. The free agent market for LHRP does feel like either LOLno (Hader) or just a bit of a cross grade from what Joely already offers if healthy (Will Smith, Wandy Peralta, Brent Suter, etc).

I do wonder if this is a place they might go looking for trades. Miami in particular has a boatload of lefties: Tanner Scott (1 more year of control), AJ Puk (3), Andrew Nardi (5?), Steven Okert (3), who have all been good this year.

Any other targets out there?

I think Jacques is a pretty good option, actually. Don’t mind your idea of stashing him in Worcester since he’s optionable, but his ground ball rate is off the charts (66.2%) and his walk rate (5.3%) is elite.

Besides him, I don’t think I hate the idea of exercising Joely’s option. It’s a difference of $3.75M after the half-mil buyout, which is basically what we paid Strahm after a year he lost to injury.

There’s so much volatility with these kinds of guys. I don’t know the severity of Joely’s hip injury but the chance of rehabbing him and getting his 2021-22 vintage seems preferable to giving up legitimate assets for a guy like Puk or Bummer.

scottyno · Sep 3, 2023

simplicio said:
Yeah, somebody from that list needs to leave to fit in another lefty. But does anyone want to trade for a Pivetta?

The way they've been using Murphy makes me feel like they're still hoping to make him a starter; I think his home is still in Worcester outside of situations where all our starters fail at once.

In a world where Kluber caliber guys get 1-10 they could easily move Pivetta

Petagine in a Bottle · Sep 3, 2023

Is there another team out there willing to give Joely Rodriguez $4M? If he’s brought back, seems like it should be at closer to $1.5-$2M, perhaps even a minor league deal.

E5 Yaz · Sep 4, 2023

@PeteAbe
#RedSox claimed RHP Logan Gillaspie off waivers from the Orioles and optioned him to Triple-A. Jarren Duran to the 60-day IL to create a 40-man spot.

Sandy Leon Trotsky · Sep 4, 2023

E5 Yaz said:
@PeteAbe
#RedSox claimed RHP Logan Gillaspie off waivers from the Orioles and optioned him to Triple-A. Jarren Duran to the 60-day IL to create a 40-man spot.

What does this mean for the remainder of the season for Duran? I assume the injury was enough to prevent even his playing in the post-season? <<<Obviously hypothetical there

Red(s)HawksFan · Sep 4, 2023

Sandy Leon Trotsky said:
What does this mean for the remainder of the season for Duran? I assume the injury was enough to prevent even his playing in the post-season? <<<Obviously hypothetical there

I think the recovery for his surgery was supposed to be 2-3 months at least, so there was no chance he was returning before spring training regardless.

nvalvo · Sep 4, 2023

Gillaspie is 26, and flat out sucked in 9 IP for Baltimore this season: 14 H/9, 2 K/9, 5 BB/9, 8 K/9. 1.160 OPSa.

HOWEVER, it's a four-pitch mix with a fastball that sits 95 and touches higher, and then a slider, change up and curve. So, yeah. Lots of moving parts, and could be a fun project for Spring Training.

Lose Remerswaal · Oct 11, 2023

JM3 said:
I somehow failed to mention Kaleb Ort in the OP. My bad.

Everyone agreed with your analysis. Even the team.

derekson · Oct 11, 2023

JM3 said:
View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1712193822204002377

So will it be the Dodgers or the Rays that pick him up and turn him into an elite reliever?

Yo La Tengo · Oct 12, 2023

derekson said:
So will it be the Dodgers or the Rays that pick him up and turn him into an elite reliever?

Look at Brasier's stats with the Dodgers... 38 innings, 0.70 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 38 Ks, 10 walks. I posted this earlier in the summer, but his turnaround is based on starting to throw a cut fastball, which is frustrating to see happen elsewhere after months of ineffectiveness:

Chainsaw318 · Oct 12, 2023

Thanks for the reset.
It’s not crazy to consider that fhestrength of the 2024 club, if you get a reasonable facsimile of last season from the top 4 guys (Jansen, Martin, Scheeiber, Winckowski) plus something from some 2-3 person combo of the next group (Crawford, Pivetta, Houck, Bernardino, Kelly).

You then maybe have space to add one more “proven” 6-8th inning guy via FA or trade, and can roll the rest of the spots, looking for a hot hand.

While we remember portions of the pen being gassed late in the year, and a couple of blown leads, my impression of Jansen, Martin Schreiber is that could be considered an above average top 3 guys.

Lose Remerswaal · Oct 12, 2023

You can't spell Worthless without Ort

Sandy Leon Trotsky · Oct 12, 2023

Lose Remerswaal said:
You can't spell Worthless without Ort

Or "cortisone"

Sin Duda · Oct 12, 2023

I'll play. Or UnimpORTant.

E5 Yaz · Oct 13, 2023

Mariners have claimed Ort

Spud · Oct 13, 2023

So he's been expORTed to Seattle.

LogansDad · Oct 14, 2023

Glad that got sorted out.

Whoop-La White · Oct 14, 2023

Kale Abort.

At least Tampa didn't get a chance to claim him and turn him into Jeffrey Springs.

It's interesting that with Bloom gone so much of the current bullpen roster is made up of these flier-type arms (Schrieber, Bernandino, Jacques, Llovera) that ended up being useful for stretches and that I am going to think of as his legacy.

Fishy1 · Oct 14, 2023

Whoop-La White said:
Kale Abort.

At least Tampa didn't get a chance to claim him and turn him into Jeffrey Springs.

It's interesting that with Bloom gone so much of the current bullpen roster is made up of these flier-type arms (Schrieber, Bernandino, Jacques, Llovera) that ended up being useful for stretches and that I am going to think of as his legacy.

For the failures (Brasier, Lamet, Barraclough and Ort, just as examples), he had many, many success stories. Juries still out on if some of them are Lloveras or fighters, if Nick Robertson is going to be a big-league arm, etc., but there's plenty there for next year.

Red(s)HawksFan · Oct 14, 2023

Fishy1 said:
For the failures (Brasier, Lamet, Barraclough and Ort, just as examples), he had many, many success stories. Juries still out on if some of them are Lloveras or fighters, if Nick Robertson is going to be a big-league arm, etc., but there's plenty there for next year.

I'm not sure I'd put Brasier down as a failure. He wasn't a Bloom acquisition. He was a Dombrowski find and pretty damn useful in 2018. Maybe I guess we can fault Bloom for hanging on to Brasier longer than any of us would have liked. He was just hoping for another run like 2018, unfortunately it might have been finally cutting the cord (and Brasier finding a cutter) that triggered it.

Fishy1 · Oct 14, 2023

Red(s)HawksFan said:
I'm not sure I'd put Brasier down as a failure. He wasn't a Bloom acquisition. He was a Dombrowski find and pretty damn useful in 2018. Maybe I guess we can fault Bloom for hanging on to Brasier longer than any of us would have liked. He was just hoping for another run like 2018, unfortunately it might have been finally cutting the cord (and Brasier finding a cutter) that triggered it.

Let me clarify: I wouldn't blame Bloom necessarily - I was more thinking of the fact that he was struggling so badly here, got picked up by Los Angeles and made a small switch in his repertoire and went right back to being effective. Maybe that's on the pitching coach, or maybe it's on Brasier, or maybe Bloom and his analysts should've been in the pitching coaches ear telling them to get Brasier to switch up his pitch mix. Obviously I don't know what the truth is there, or how it might have gone down.

E5 Yaz · Oct 14, 2023

Fishy1 said:
Maybe that's on the pitching coach, or maybe it's on Brasier, or maybe Bloom and his analysts should've been in the pitching coaches ear telling them to get Brasier to switch up his pitch mix.

There's someone missing from this clarification

Red(s)HawksFan · Oct 14, 2023

Fishy1 said:
Let me clarify: I wouldn't blame Bloom necessarily - I was more thinking of the fact that he was struggling so badly here, got picked up by Los Angeles and made a small switch in his repertoire and went right back to being effective. Maybe that's on the pitching coach, or maybe it's on Brasier, or maybe Bloom and his analysts should've been in the pitching coaches ear telling them to get Brasier to switch up his pitch mix. Obviously I don't know what the truth is there, or how it might have gone down.

When it comes to adding a brand new pitch to the repertoire, I think that falls on the pitcher. He's the guy throwing. If he doesn't want to learn a cutter or a sweeper or a splitter or whatever, can they really force him?

Fishy1 · Oct 14, 2023

E5 Yaz said:
There's someone missing from this clarification

Please, venerated jokester, don't play guessing games with me... I've been cutting back on caffeine. Cora?

Red(s)HawksFan said:
When it comes to adding a brand new pitch to the repertoire, I think that falls on the pitcher. He's the guy throwing. If he doesn't want to learn a cutter or a sweeper or a splitter or whatever, can they really force him?

Yeah, I mean that's totally fair. I don't know if they tried to get him to throw a 'whatever,' which is why I'm agnostic on these things at the end of the day.

Petagine in a Bottle · Oct 14, 2023

Is there evidence that Brasier refused to throw a cutter with the Sox and immediately began doing so in LA, or so that just some theory being thrown out there?

Occam’s Razor and all, but it seems likely that the Dodgers suggested he start throwing a cutter, and he did. That seems like a scouting / coaching issue to me.

Red(s)HawksFan · Oct 14, 2023

Petagine in a Bottle said:
Is there evidence that Brasier refused to throw a cutter with the Sox and immediately began doing so in LA, or so that just some theory being thrown out there?

Occam’s Razor and all, but it seems likely that the Dodgers suggested he start throwing a cutter, and he did. That seems like a scouting / coaching issue to me.

It's a theory based on his sudden usage of a cutter after he arrived in LA. All we know is he never threw one in Boston, and threw one (out of 10 total pitches) in his very first appearance for the Dodgers. It could have been suggested by the Dodgers staff. It could have been something he was playing with on the sidelines for a while and decided to go with it (or get help with it) somewhat out of desperation after he found himself out of a job and back in the minors. We have no idea what the impetus was and won't unless he speaks up.

What does Red Sox relief pitching look like in 2024?

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