What does Red Sox starting pitching look like in 2024?

[BeantownIdaho]

Imanga averaged 6 2/3 innings per outing - 24 games - 159 innings - in 2023. His innings the last several years have been pretty consistent.- 25/170, 25/149, 24/158, 24/159. I am not sure if Fangraphs takes into consideration that the season is 144 games in Japan - If he were healthy all year that would add a couple of appearances and innings to his season.... but at the same time it might be good to skip a start here and there.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

Not sure if this has been posted (I read 99% of posts so sorry if I mis-remembered), but here is an analysis of Imanaga’s stuff (w/Stuff+ ratings, NPB data & WBC data), etc. so see for yourself (vid of Imanaga pitching starts about 40sec in):

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rcB8NtHA9gw

 

[BeantownIdaho]

Not sure if this has been posted (I read 99% of posts so sorry if I mis-remembered), but here is an analysis of Imanaga’s stuff (w/Stuff+ ratings, NPB data & WBC data), etc. so see for yourself (vid of Imanaga pitching starts about 40sec in):

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rcB8NtHA9gw

Great info, but absolutely the worst music .... was I in an elevator?

 

[SouthernBoSox]

View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1738630234604187982?s=46


A kinda annoying update on Imanaga from Speier.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

It seems to me that Jordan Montgomery is being underrated by many here. He missed almost 2 seasons from Tommy John surgery and then had the pandemic-shortened year, but in the 3 seasons since, he has averaged 175 IP at a 3.48 ERA, 3.62 FIP and 121 ERA+. He's been good every full season that he's pitched and hasn't had many injuries since he came back from TJ.
He seems like as sure a bet to be good and throw a lot of innings as pretty much any starting pitcher you could get, and he only costs money-- no draft picks,. no prospects. I hope we are in on him and make a big offer to him.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

It seems to me that Jordan Montgomery is being underrated by many here. He missed almost 2 seasons from Tommy John surgery and then had the pandemic-shortened year, but in the 3 seasons since, he has averaged 175 IP at a 3.48 ERA, 3.62 FIP and 121 ERA+. He's been good every full season that he's pitched and hasn't had many injuries since he came back from TJ.
He seems like as sure a bet to be good and throw a lot of innings as pretty much any starting pitcher you could get, and he only costs money-- no draft picks,. no prospects. I hope we are in on him and make a big offer to him.

I agree with this entirely, and have been advocating signing him for basically the entire off-season. Unfortunately, I think we have to assume (based on McAdam, Speier and Bradford all sharing updates that connect), that it’s become as much a pipe dream as signing Yamamoto.

What I can’t stand is another off season of seemingly doing nothing to improve the rotation for the medium term. Another year of one year deals to guys that take one year deals because they aren’t good enough to get anything beyond that. Then when that leads to another (totally predictable) awful year, we can do it again next year.

I can in some ways accept the apparent FSG mandate not to sign FA pitchers long term. I don’t understand why they refuse to pursue middle class options. I mean, there ARE in fact pitchers that aren’t top of the market but are also not old, broken down, not really good anymore / have never been good options.

The total refusal to extend themselves to the Stroman, Bassitt, Taillon, Kikuchi, Eovaldi, Giolito types is baffling to me. Especially when the upper minors is pretty much barren and the rotation is - for some insane reason again - looking like it’s going to depend on two 35 year old pitchers that haven’t been capable of pitching a full season since 2017 and 2019. It’s infuriating.

 

[simplicio]

The total refusal to extend themselves to the Stroman, Bassitt, Taillon, Kikuchi, Eovaldi, Giolito types is baffling to me. Especially when the upper minors is pretty much barren and the rotation is - for some insane reason again - looking like it’s going to depend on two 35 year old pitchers that haven’t been capable of pitching a full season since 2017 and 2019. It’s infuriating.

A. They did extend themselves to Eovaldi, he declined
B. Kikuchi had a career ERA around 5 when he signed with Toronto
C. Giolito and Stroman haven't signed with anyone yet so I'm not sure how you're on the Sox refusing to sign either
D. Bassitt had a good year worth his contract but he's also 35 next season which you don't seem to like
E. Taillon looked pretty bad and I'm not sure the Cubs are happy to have him on contract for another 2 years

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

A. They did extend themselves to Eovaldi, he declined
B. Kikuchi had a career ERA around 5 when he signed with Toronto
C. Giolito and Stroman haven't signed with anyone yet so I'm not sure how you're on the Sox refusing to sign either
D. Bassitt had a good year worth his contract but he's also 35 next season which you don't seem to like
E. Taillon looked pretty bad and I'm not sure the Cubs are happy to have him on contract for another 2 years

They easily could have given Eovaldi money when he came back to them. Maybe it’d have “cost them a year of Duvall.”But he came back and asked for the same day, they said no.

Sure, but Kikuchi was still wanted enough on the market to get multiple year deals. The insistence on one year deals and rebuilding a rotation is grating. It’s also continually not worked. I’m taking the “Einstein” definition of insanity here. But no, by all means, this years pu pu platter will work.

At a certain level (Stroman and Giolito) and the reports of their interest in Paxton, I guess I’m just believing that since they they’re continuing down the one year deal path.

Re age - I dislike Sale and Paxton because they haven’t shown an ability to start consistently for a long time, not just their age (similar to why I’d have had no interest in Glasnow). Should’ve been more clear on that.

On Taillon, he was horrible the first half and decent the second. Not unusual for guys going to a new team. I’d be thrilled if the Sox could land Taillon from them for simply taking on the contract.

 

[jbupstate]

They easily could have given Eovaldi money when he came back to them. Maybe it’d have “cost them a year of Duvall.”But he came back and asked for the same day, they said no.

Sure, but Kikuchi was still wanted enough on the market to get multiple year deals. The insistence on one year deals and rebuilding a rotation is grating. It’s also continually not worked. I’m taking the “Einstein” definition of insanity here. But no, by all means, this years pu pu platter will work.

At a certain level (Stroman and Giolito) and the reports of their interest in Paxton, I guess I’m just believing that since they they’re continuing down the one year deal path.

Re age - I dislike Sale and Paxton because they haven’t shown an ability to start consistently for a long time, not just their age (similar to why I’d have had no interest in Glasnow). Should’ve been more clear on that.

On Taillon, he was horrible the first half and decent the second. Not unusual for guys going to a new team. I’d be thrilled if the Sox could land Taillon from them for simply taking on the contract.

You do realize Eovaldi is an injury machine that missed time last season. Not sure how he permanently solves any problem on the Sox staff. Old, injured and not cheap. N

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

You do realize Eovaldi is an injury machine that missed time last season. Not sure how he permanently solves any problem on the Sox staff. Old, injured and not cheap. N

I do. At a certain level, same with Stroman.

Which is why I’ve long preferred (and advocated) other paths. However, an addition via high end FA spending and acquiring a young cost controlled player like that (Gilbert was always my choice) seemingly off the table, we have to adjust.

So I’d far rather them shop at “department stores” vs the annual trips to the thrift shop and local dumpsters they’ve been doing.

I’m not thrilled (I think JM is a great fit), but here we are, so I’m trying to make the most of it. (Though at this point with the updates we’ve seen, I fear something like Bello, Sale, Paxton, Crawford, Pivetta and Houck is more of a possibility than I thought going into the off season. I also think that will fail spectacularly. As it did in 22, 23, and will in 24.)

 

[chrisfont9]

I agree with this entirely, and have been advocating signing him for basically the entire off-season. Unfortunately, I think we have to assume (based on McAdam, Speier and Bradford all sharing updates that connect), that it’s become as much a pipe dream as signing Yamamoto.

I still think this is premature doom and gloom. Nobody else is being hotly rumored to Monty, which makes me wonder if Boras is asking for "Yamamoto-plus" or some nonsense and teams (including the Sox) are playing a long game. I continue to agree with both of you that he's a strong fit for the reasons cited.

 

[6-5 Sadler]

Not sure if this has been posted (I read 99% of posts so sorry if I mis-remembered), but here is an analysis of Imanaga’s stuff (w/Stuff+ ratings, NPB data & WBC data), etc. so see for yourself (vid of Imanaga pitching starts about 40sec in):

Thanks for sharing…this definitely provides more context on Imagana’s pitch mix. I acknowledge he has attractive pitch characteristics (fastball has elite induced vertical break, good approach angle, but weak velocity) but I still worry about the fit. He’s going to give up home runs and I question how much tweaking his pitch mix/location is going to change that. His best secondary pitch is his splitter and for that to play up he needs to locate his fastball at the bottom of the zone. You can get away with that when you’re Kevin Gausman and thrown 96…less so when your fastball averages 92.5.

Towards the end of the video, the commentator talks a little of the risk/variance involved with Imanaga and mentions that park will likely impact how much value he provides to a team due to his fly ball tendencies.

 

[MikeM]

I think YY was the move to make. It didn't go our way, so we must move on.

YY was the move to make in the same general sense that asking out the hottest and most popular girl in the school is for Joe Average with absolutely no standout qualities going for them. Regardless of the fact she already has dreamy eyes for Johnny QB, and who by all accounts really likes her back. I mean Johnny QB may be better looking then you are, is a lot more popular, drives the better car, and (polar opposite to you) has every other girl in the school crushing on him too. But hey...you never know right? Which on that note was basically my takeaway summary from sitting down to read the first 35 pages of this thread the other day, and now the couple pages that popped up today after the Giolito signing. 90% of what I'm reading stikes me as the equivilent of Joe Average and his buddies fantasizing out their top 5 hottest-girls-in-the-school lists, and while essentially detaching themselves completely from the underlying reality aspect in play that none those most ideal/in-demand girls actually think you are cute. Much less look at you the same way you are looking at them.

The surrounding landscape and off field consideration values have changed a lot even in the last 5 years. If you made a list today of the top 15 most attractive MLB team destinations for players at face value....does Boston even realistically make it on there? As my diehard 40 year Jays fan brother likes to constantly remind me nowadays, at some point you have to adjust the lens to account for that changing reality. Especially when it comes to the expecations that go into trying to "win" in free agency. Boston can't even slap down it's once bread-and-butter "come here for a chance to win" appeal card anymore. Yet you actually think WE get to sign a FA like Montogomery to a market value type deal in a competive offer field? Sorry, but no. That just isn't how it works on the other side of the comparative appeal coin we now reside on. For THIS team today getting a FA to take your money over somebody else's equal'ish value one elsewhere isn't some minor consideration hurdle in the overall equation anymore.

Breslow went into this winter with zero shot at being the winning bid on YY, and while staring down a liklihood that even those next couple of best options like Montgomey/Snell/ect were going to realistically take a Padres' level of overpay on backend years to trump the competive field. That is how you end up where we got yesterday with that Giolito signing, and where more of the unacknowledged value can be found in that signing. Boston will simply never be a great comparative desination sell at face value. To start "winning" again in today's free agency we need to get back to the point where we can at least start offering players a better chance to win ballgames then they hopefully can/would find in less of the other competive offers out there. With next year hopefully being a step forward in that regard.

 

[Mike473]

YY was the move to make in the same general sense that asking out the hottest and most popular girl in the school is for Joe Average with absolutely no standout qualities going for them. Regardless of the fact she already has dreamy eyes for Johnny QB, and who by all accounts really likes her back. I mean Johnny QB may be better looking then you are, is a lot more popular, drives the better car, and (polar opposite to you) has every other girl in the school crushing on him too. But hey...you never know right? Which on that note was basically my takeaway summary from sitting down to read the first 35 pages of this thread the other day, and now the couple pages that popped up today after the Giolito signing. 90% of what I'm reading stikes me as the equivilent of Joe Average and his buddies fantasizing out their top 5 hottest-girls-in-the-school lists, and while essentially detaching themselves completely from the underlying reality aspect in play that none those most ideal/in-demand girls actually think you are cute. Much less look at you the same way you are looking at them.

The surrounding landscape and off field consideration values have changed a lot even in the last 5 years. If you made a list today of the top 15 most attractive MLB team destinations for players at face value....does Boston even realistically make it on there? As my diehard 40 year Jays fan brother likes to constantly remind me nowadays, at some point you have to adjust the lens to account for that changing reality. Especially when it comes to the expecations that go into trying to "win" in free agency. Boston can't even slap down it's once bread-and-butter "come here for a chance to win" appeal card anymore. Yet you actually think WE get to sign a FA like Montogomery to a market value type deal in a competive offer field? Sorry, but no. That just isn't how it works on the other side of the comparative appeal coin we now reside on. For THIS team today getting a FA to take your money over somebody else's equal'ish value one elsewhere isn't some minor consideration hurdle in the overall equation anymore.

Breslow went into this winter with zero shot at being the winning bid on YY, and while staring down a liklihood that even those next couple of best options like Montgomey/Snell/ect were going to realistically take a Padres' level of overpay on backend years to trump the competive field. That is how you end up where we got yesterday with that Giolito signing, and where more of the unacknowledged value can be found in that signing. Boston will simply never be a great comparative desination sell at face value. To start "winning" again in today's free agency we need to get back to the point where we can at least start offering players a better chance to win ballgames then they hopefully can/would find in less of the other competive offers out there. With next year hopefully being a step forward in that regard.

I get what you are saying. But, I have seen a lot of ugly rich dudes dating very hot girls in my time.

 

[Apisith]

It’s an unscientific way to filter for good pitchers but looking through this list, there are one or two who I think would be gettable given our prospect surplus.

Luzardo, Kirby and Cease have been mentioned before, but Mitch Keller hasn’t. Fastball velo has increased in the last two years, K rate also went up. Only 2 years left on his deal, this is the time the Pirates usually sell. The Pirates projected team WAR is less than ours, they’re not contending. Boras is not his agent so maybe he would be willing to sign an extension.

Sale cost us basically Moncada (70FV) and Kopech (55FV). Keller has 2 years on his deal, so maybe Yorke, Bleis and whoever we get for Kenley would get it done.

Edit: it’s also funny that Kutter is on this list yet not guaranteed a spot in our rotation.