What does Red Sox starting pitching look like in 2024?

jbupstate · Aug 3, 2023

JM3 said:
Starting Pitching
Brayan Bello - Pre-Arb - 3.99 xFIP
Chris Sale - $25.6m AAV in '24 with a club option for $20m in '25 - 3.61 xFIP
Kutter Crawford - Pre-Arb - 4.13 xFIP
Tanner Houck - Pre-Arb - 3.81 xFIP
Garrett Whitlock - $4.7 AAV with club options in '27 & '28 - 3.86 xFIP
Nick Pivetta - Arb 3, earned $5.4m this season - 3.86 xFIP
Chris Murphy - Pre-Arb - 3.85 xFIP

I am not a well versed on xFIP but my understanding is it better reflects pitching performance by normalizing defense.

I understand we have high hopes for Bello… but why do we dream on him and discount the abilities of the other pitchers on this list with lower xFIP?

fake edit: If the Sox had been able to close the deal on Zack Eflin we would be in great shape. Too bad he’s from Florida

Sin Duda · Aug 3, 2023

Excellent work, JM3! Help me uunderstand your ideas on Rule 5 protection for A+ pitchers. Have teams occasionally plucked them from their original teams and kept them all season in the bigs?

jbupstate · Aug 3, 2023

Sin Duda said:
Excellent work, JM3! Help me uunderstand your ideas on Rule 5 protection for A+ pitchers. Have teams occasionally plucked them from their original teams and kept them all season in the bigs?

Whitlock is a poster boy. From the Yankees no less

plucy · Aug 3, 2023

Gambrell? Is he too far down the prospect list to consider protecting?

chrisfont9 · Aug 3, 2023

jbupstate said:
I understand we have high hopes for Bello… but why do we dream on him and discount the abilities of the other pitchers on this list with lower xFIP?

Bello's numbers were affected a bit by three poor (statistical) games to start with as he ramped back up after his spring injury setback. You then get two months of all-star pitching, then a slight leveling off since then, which is fairly routine and maybe to be expected as he finishes off his first full ML season. So his numbers are more like a floor, or at least a small sample.

I too would love to see them prioritize Yamamoto, the upside sounds exciting, although how he transitions over to the US is always a risk factor.

BigSoxFan · Aug 3, 2023

chrisfont9 said:
Bello's numbers were affected a bit by three poor (statistical) games to start with as he ramped back up after his spring injury setback. You then get two months of all-star pitching, then a slight leveling off since then, which is fairly routine and maybe to be expected as he finishes off his first full ML season. So his numbers are more like a floor, or at least a small sample.

I too would love to see them prioritize Yamamoto, the upside sounds exciting, although how he transitions over to the US is always a risk factor.

Yamamoto is my guy. I want the full court press on him. He’s a better pitcher than Kodai Senga and Senga has transitioned just fine. We obviously have had a great experience with Yoshida so far as well. Feels to me like the elite Japanese talent are becoming somewhat safer bets. He’s a few years away but Roki Sasaki has a 1.48 ERA and has given up 1 HR in 85 IP. As a 21 year-old. Japan is churning out some insane talent and I hope Chaim stays active there.

JBJ_HOF · Aug 3, 2023

Chaim Bloom was on the ITM podcast tonight. He said he expects a starting pitcher to be the big focus in the off season and when the young pitchers have come along like they have, it makes it easier to narrow the focus on pitchers from the outside they want to pursue.

Merkle's Boner · Aug 3, 2023

Depending on how the 40-man shakes out, I would consider leaving Drohan off of it. Certainly instead of Perales or Bastardo. How many guys can you lose to Rule 5? Is it only 1 per year?

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat · Aug 3, 2023

Merkle's Boner said:
Depending on how the 40-man shakes out, I would consider leaving Drohan off of it. Certainly instead of Perales or Bastardo. How many guys can you lose to Rule 5? Is it only 1 per year?

There isn't a limit

Merkle's Boner · Aug 3, 2023

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat said:
There isn't a limit

Huh. Not sure why I thought there was.

AlNipper49 · Aug 3, 2023

Merkle's Boner said:
Huh. Not sure why I thought there was.

I mix this up in my head too. I blame the expansion drafts.

Tokyo Sox · Aug 4, 2023

BigSoxFan said:
Yamamoto is my guy. I want the full court press on him. He’s a better pitcher than Kodai Senga and Senga has transitioned just fine. We obviously have had a great experience with Yoshida so far as well. Feels to me like the elite Japanese talent are becoming somewhat safer bets.

It will shock no one to learn that this is also what I'm hoping for. Yamamoto has been NPB's most polished pitching product for the last several years now, and I agree is better than Senga, not to mention a lot younger. He's also Yoshida's ex-Orix teammate so hopefully the Sox have a slight edge over the competition there.

Another name to perhaps add to the "potential free agents" list is the guy who started the WBC Final for Japan, Shota Imanaga. He's 5 years older than Yamamoto but has gotten better each of the last three seasons, currently pitching to a 1.99 ERA / 0.85 WHIP line in 14 starts this year.

Minor technical point but neither Yamamoto nor Imanaga are actual FA's though, they would both need to be posted. But there shouldn't be any roadblocks there; the teams will post them if they want to go.

The Gray Eagle · Aug 4, 2023

If we're going to have a deep system filled with interesting prospects, we're going to have to adjust to leaving plenty of them exposed to the rule 5 draft and losing one or two most every year.

Perales and Wikelman look like 2 who I would protect, but the others seems kind of long shots to be protected, or at least guys who if they are taken will probably end up doing nothing because their development would be hurt from being rushed to the majors. Bastardo is still in A ball, Drohan has had some amazing games but doesn't look anywhere near ready for the majors yet, and CJ Liu is like a similar but lesser version of Drohan.

The only reason losing Ward bothered me this past offseason was because our system wasn't yet deep, and we exposed him instead of Brasier and Ort. But in the long run, it won't make much difference as he probably won't end up doing anything, the system is now deeper anyway, and we will probably lose another unproven but interesting player or two this year.

If at some point we do lose a player in the rule 5 draft who has a decent career for some other team, we will never hear the end of it though. From the media ("Why can't WE get players like that?" "It's Bagwell all over again!!") the many Bloom-hating fans, prospect lovers, and GM wannabees who get enraged if the team doesn't get their imaginary "full value" from every single player in the organization in every move.

That would be a strange alliance if that happens, but it will just be noise, and I am glad that our front office doesn't seem to care about noise like that. We'll likely lose a player or 2 this offseason but we'll have plenty more who will still be here and not taking up crucial roster spots.

Hopefully we protect the right ones.

Petagine in a Bottle · Aug 4, 2023

Excellent point. I think you also have to consider the potential cost to the big league team of having multiple 40-man roster spots taken up by players who aren’t able to help right away. Obviously there’s a balance but you are going to need players ready to be called up as needed, which can be made more difficult if you have too many spots being taken by lower level prospects.

Sandy Leon Trotsky · Aug 4, 2023

Also hoping for Yamamoto, who expectations should be set for him to be a middle of the rotation guy, despite his insane numbers. I'm not sure if Bello is truly "ace" material but with Sale, I think it's a group of very good starters that would be a top rotation despite possibly not having a true ace.
My concern, of course.... is with Sale's health for a whole season, as I'm sure is everyone else's too, so I wonder if they should also move to get one of the lower tiered guys who may be available for a 3/$60M range.... or to try and make a deal for ERod (who I suspect wouldn't be as adverse to a trade back to Boston as he was to LA.... strangely enough).
I think Pivetta should get packaged and traded (please someone take Dalbec... he's got no future here and needs another legit shot at a full time job). It was crazy that in the beginning of this season, the "depth" looked absolutely impressive and very deep and yet by early July they had 3 starters, none of which were in the rotation to start the season.
I think it's also past the time to try Whitlock as a regular starter. So.... rotation would look like:

Sale
Bello
Yamamoto
Crawford
ERod
Houck

with:
Drohan (AAA)
Walters (AAA)
Murphy (long relief)
Whitlock (in case of absolute emergencies but mostly as a 3 inning opener)
as the deep depth and I can see Winkelman possibly getting a call up or at least up during expanded roster time

RedOctober3829 · Aug 4, 2023

I would like them to go out and sign Yamamoto and also one of Blake Snell/Julio Urias/Aaron Nola if any of those three hit the market. Move Whitlock and Houck back to the bullpen. Let Paxton go for a draft pick.

Snell
Yamamoto
Bello
Sale
Crawford

Bullpen
RHP's
Jansen
Martin
Winckowski
Whitlock
Houck

LHP's
Bernandino
Bleier or Jacques

Sin Duda · Aug 4, 2023

By the way, Rule 5 draft loss Thad Ward hasn't done so well for the Nats: 7.12 ERA, 30.1 IP, 1.65 WHIP. This year probably has stunted his development. Ol' Thaddeus is already 26 and will likely get sent back to AAA next season but in the Nats' system.

chrisfont9 · Aug 4, 2023

JBJ_HOF said:
Chaim Bloom was on the ITM podcast tonight. He said he expects a starting pitcher to be the big focus in the off season and when the young pitchers have come along like they have, it makes it easier to narrow the focus on pitchers from the outside they want to pursue.

It really does feel like 2024 is the hit the gas year a lot of us suspected it would be. Which jibes with a lot of the prioritization of pitcher development (and other things) this year. That plus the room under the LT all set the Sox up to make the huge difference-maker rotation acquisition they need above all else.

chrisfont9 · Aug 4, 2023

Sin Duda said:
By the way, Rule 5 draft loss Thad Ward hasn't done so well for the Nats: 7.12 ERA, 30.1 IP, 1.65 WHIP. This year probably has stunted his development. Ol' Thaddeus is already 26 and will likely get sent back to AAA next season but in the Nats' system.

Apparently we should know today if Song cleared waivers. Speaking of Rule 5 exits we were so worried about last winter.

OldeBeanTowne · Aug 4, 2023

What's the thinking on what Yamamoto will cost? Will it require a better contract than Tanaka's record-setting seven year $155 million deal?

Yaz4Ever · Aug 4, 2023

I'm hoping to see us go after Yamamoto.

Sale
Bello
Yamamoto
Paxton
Crawford
Houck

Having Crawford/Houck in that rotation ready to take over due to injury (Sale and Paxton obviously have histories, but anyone can get hurt) or stretched out for long relief in the pen. Barring injuries or if one of our more likely injured guys moves on, I wouldn't be heart broken to see Houck assume the closer's role

SoxJox · Aug 4, 2023

Anyone counting on Sale for more than 10 starts next year is in a Dock Ellis-like trip.

Yaz4Ever · Aug 4, 2023

SoxJox said:
Anyone counting on Sale for more than 10 starts next year is in a Dock Ellis-like trip.

I'll be honest and admit I'm hoping for (not necessarily counting on) 15-20 starts from Sale and the same from Paxton (if he's still with us).

jon abbey · Aug 4, 2023

OldeBeanTowne said:
What's the thinking on what Yamamoto will cost? Will it require a better contract than Tanaka's record-setting seven year $155 million deal?

Much more IMO, pretty curious to see how his and Urias’ eventual deals compare.

simplicio · Aug 4, 2023

Yamamoto has been better than Tanaka at the same age in Japan, and we have a decade of regular salary inflation plus the Steve Cohen factor. I think he's getting $200m at least.

OldeBeanTowne · Aug 4, 2023

That's what I assumed. Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if he gets a contract that exceeds $30 million a year over 7-8 years or possibly a longer contract to reduce the AAV. Given the teams that will be involved and the other FA pitching options available, I think it may take more than I'm even expecting.

All that said, get it done Theo!

burstnbloom · Aug 5, 2023

I would be really surprised if his contract was that large. Its difficult to imagine that kind of inflation over last year. The contracts for players coming from Japan have been very reasonable.

Yoshida - 5 years $90m
Senga - 5 for $75m
Suzuki - 5 for $85m

Is a 5'10" pitcher going to get 5 x $150? I guess we will find out but Ill believe it when I see it.

simplicio · Aug 5, 2023

The biggest immediate difference is their age. Tanaka and Yamataka are both posting after their age 24 seasons; the other guys came over significantly later.

In the year before posting:
Tanaka (24): 27 starts (24 W, 0 L, 8 CG), 212 IP, 1.27 ERA, 0.943 WHIP, 0.3 HR/9
Senga (29): 22 starts (11 W, 6 L, 1 CG), 148 IP, 1.94 ERA, 1.041 WHIP, 0.4 HR/9

I'd stated earlier that Yamataka had better stats than Tanaka, and I think that's true overall but I'd forgotten what a monster season Tanaka had before he posted. Yoshinobu is currently sitting at a 1.57 ERA with a 0.852 WHIP and an insane 8.64 SO/W ratio though.

Philip Jeff Frye · Aug 5, 2023

JM3 said:
James Paxton - 3.55 xFIP - Paxton is eligible to receive a Qualifying Offer of approximately $20m for one season. If he rejects the QO & signs with another team, we would get a compensation pick after the 2nd round (as we are under the tax threshold). He could also accept the QO or re-sign after rejecting it.

Do people think that the Sox will offer Paxton the QO? They didn't do so last year with Wacha. Seems like 2023 Paxton is not too different than 2022 Wacha - FIP of 4.07 versus 4.14, about the same age, somewhat similar histories of battling injuries.

simplicio · Aug 5, 2023

Depends on how he performs down the stretch. Yesterday's Paxton doesn't get one.

Tokyo Sox · Aug 7, 2023

simplicio said:
The biggest immediate difference is their age. Tanaka and Yamataka are both posting after their age 24 seasons; the other guys came over significantly later.

In the year before posting:
Tanaka (24): 27 starts (24 W, 0 L, 8 CG), 212 IP, 1.27 ERA, 0.943 WHIP, 0.3 HR/9
Senga (29): 22 starts (11 W, 6 L, 1 CG), 148 IP, 1.94 ERA, 1.041 WHIP, 0.4 HR/9

I'd stated earlier that Yamataka had better stats than Tanaka, and I think that's true overall but I'd forgotten what a monster season Tanaka had before he posted. Yoshinobu is currently sitting at a 1.57 ERA with a 0.852 WHIP and an insane 8.64 SO/W ratio though.

Yamataka tte dare?

JM3 said:
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxpayroll/status/1688600942696919046

This is a strange way for ESPN or an unnamed executive to frame it. Posting fees have gotten much smaller over the years, and don't count towards the luxury tax anyway. Unless you care how much ownership is out of pocket, there is zero reason to care about how much the "entire package" comes to. Whether the actual contract is 5/100 or 8/200 or anywhere in between, the associated posting fees are irrelevant.

johnlos · Aug 7, 2023

Philip Jeff Frye said:
Do people think that the Sox will offer Paxton the QO? They didn't do so last year with Wacha. Seems like 2023 Paxton is not too different than 2022 Wacha - FIP of 4.07 versus 4.14, about the same age, somewhat similar histories of battling injuries.

Yes. Paxton's velo is just as strong as 2017-2019, when he put up a combined 11.6 fWAR.

Dunno what rankings people prefer for pitchers, but for fantasy baseball purposes Nick Pollock puts in as much work as anyone and he has Paxton as 19th right now. Obviously real life is a bit different but he's clearly in the ace conversation and "over"paying on a 1/$20m is generally a team-friendly move. So assuming he finishes the year healthy and matches his performance to this point it's a no-brainer.

Also I figure part of the rationale for not trading him at the deadline was putting the QO on and taking the supplemental pick if he signs elsewhere, since he would have fetched a nice return.

cantor44 · Aug 7, 2023

It seems to me the Red Sox are 2-3 blue chip players from having a truly contending team (if Bello, Casas, and Duran are what they seem to be). Acquiring a high end starter should be the priority, and it's gratifying that Bloom has said as much. Though it seems to me a serious upgrade is needed at second, or in one of the outfield spots, preferably a RHH. And then, perhaps, they need an additional 3-4 starter. I'd like to see Bloom get aggressive this off season. They've moved closer to the next quality core, the farm is restocked. Surely the time is right.

nvalvo · Aug 8, 2023

cantor44 said:
It seems to me the Red Sox are 2-3 blue chip players from having a truly contending team (if Bello, Casas, and Duran are what they seem to be). Acquiring a high end starter should be the priority, and it's gratifying that Bloom has said as much. Though it seems to me a serious upgrade is needed at second, or in one of the outfield spots, preferably a RHH. And then, perhaps, they need an additional 3-4 starter. I'd like to see Bloom get aggressive this off season. They've moved closer to the next quality core, the farm is restocked. Surely the time is right.

I think this is basically right.

We are in great long term shape at 3B, 1B, CF, LF/DH, C, and SS. That’s a great start. Rafaela is probably the next outfield upgrade.

But unless Urias really clicks in the next few months, we should be looking for a two-way middle infielder to bridge to the current Sea Dogs.

And another 1/2 starter type.

Rovin Romine · Aug 8, 2023

cantor44 said:
It seems to me the Red Sox are 2-3 blue chip players from having a truly contending team (if Bello, Casas, and Duran are what they seem to be). Acquiring a high end starter should be the priority, and it's gratifying that Bloom has said as much. Though it seems to me a serious upgrade is needed at second, or in one of the outfield spots, preferably a RHH. And then, perhaps, they need an additional 3-4 starter. I'd like to see Bloom get aggressive this off season. They've moved closer to the next quality core, the farm is restocked. Surely the time is right.

The question is where those blue chip players will be coming from. The plan for the moment would seem to be bridging to Meyer/Yorke with competent players - maybe Mondesi on a one year "show me" contract or Urias. For the OF, Rafaela is a RHH.

I think a single controlled starter would do it. ?/Bello/Sale/Houck/Crawford/Pivetta.

beautokyo · Aug 8, 2023

JM3 said:
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxpayroll/status/1688600942696919046

Speaking of the devil, I watched him pitch tonight and he threw 7 innings, around 106 pitches, 4 or 5 K's, 1 walk. Quite a few full counts. Busted tough lefthanders inside at 155-158, 127 curve 12-6 that found the strike zone often. More low pitches than high in the zone. It's my 1st time to watch him this year. He doesn't waste any time on the mound either.

Roki Sasaki is another arm to be on the lookout for down the road.

simplicio · Aug 8, 2023

nvalvo said:
But unless Urias really clicks in the next few months, we should be looking for a two-way middle infielder to bridge to the current Sea Dogs.

Curious who you'd target for this role, as either a free agent this winter or a realistic trade for a couple years of control. Cause I'm really not seeing likely upgrades to Urias anywhere. I think he's our guy.

You could maybe argue for Hoerner from the Cubs or Edman from STL, but both those teams were selling last month and kept them, so I'm not sure that's a likely trade.

Merkle's Boner · Aug 8, 2023

beautokyo said:
Speaking of the devil, I watched him pitch tonight and he threw 7 innings, around 106 pitches, 4 or 5 K's, 1 walk. Quite a few full counts. Busted tough lefthanders inside at 155-158, 127 curve 12-6 that found the strike zone often. More low pitches than high in the zone. It's my 1st time to watch him this year. He doesn't waste any time on the mound either.

Roki Sasaki is another arm to be on the lookout for down the road.

Is he Sidd Finch?

beautokyo · Aug 8, 2023

Merkle's Boner said:
Is he Sidd Finch?

Sorry but i've lived here to long and just posted what I know as of now. Rota tops out at 103-104 consistantely. (mph)

beautokyo · Aug 8, 2023

Merkle's Boner said:
Is he Sidd Finch?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=sasaki000rok

Sin Duda · Aug 8, 2023

Merkle's Boner said:
Is he Sidd Finch?

I loved it! For those of you who thought there'd be no math, that's 96-98 mph on the fastball and 79 mph on the curve. Thanks BeauTokyo!

beautokyo · Aug 8, 2023

Sin Duda said:
I loved it! For those of you who thought there'd be no math, that's 96-98 mph on the fastball and 79 mph on the curve. Thanks BeauTokyo!

Thanks and sorry for the confusion.....trying to be helpful can be confusing for old dogs sometimes.

Sin Duda · Aug 8, 2023

beautokyo said:
Thanks and sorry for the confusion.....trying to be helpful can be confusing for old dogs sometimes.

No, no. I had started my post before you added the link, but it took me so long to convert, my post followed yours by 3 minutes(one ol' dog to another). Now that I work for Japanese company Renesas, maybe I'll get to travel to Tokyo one day.

nvalvo · Aug 8, 2023

simplicio said:
Curious who you'd target for this role, as either a free agent this winter or a realistic trade for a couple years of control. Cause I'm really not seeing likely upgrades to Urias anywhere. I think he's our guy.

You could maybe argue for Hoerner from the Cubs or Edman from STL, but both those teams were selling last month and kept them, so I'm not sure that's a likely trade.

Good question; I’m not sure. I think Urias has the inside track, but there are some other possibilities depending on what other teams do. Ha-Seong Kim is the best case scenario if the Padres blow it up, but guys like Brandon Lowe or Brendan Donovan are maybe more realistic. Or, as you say, Edman. I think the Cubs may have extended Hoerner.

What does Red Sox starting pitching look like in 2024?

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