Owner wants Bill. People with jobs want to keep them and don't want Bill. If owner gets what he wants, Bill will coach in ATL.
What is next for BB?
- Thread starter tims4wins
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This is a good guess. I think Pedersen got a raw deal in Philly, but I could see him get a similar bum's rush in Jacksonville given the collapse they suffered. Like Philly, they also went 1-5 to finish the season after being in contention to being the top seed in their conference, and their only win was over the Panthers, not exactly one they could crow about.
Perfect summation of the situation. And McKay has done a good job there, so I'm sure Blank wants to retain him as well as bring on Belichick, if that can be worked out.
The more stories like this that come out, the more it seems like he may not be the top choice. I’m guessing this is more about control of decision making than anything, but BB ending up man out on the coaching carousel would be a wild end to his career.
View: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10106264-nfl-rumors-bill-belichick-becoming-falcons-hc-has-lost-momentum-in-the-past-week
View: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10106264-nfl-rumors-bill-belichick-becoming-falcons-hc-has-lost-momentum-in-the-past-week
Obviously they were never BB or bust since they’ve interviewed 731 candidates so far, but this was t something most envisioned when he hit the market. I believe we were told repeatedly by many people that almost every team in the NFL would take BB if we cut him loose.
With Harbaugh close to signing with the LAC, maybe there's an opening for BB enthusiasm in the ATL to come flooding back in.
McKay's teams have gone 164-159, with one Super Bowl appearance, in 20 years. They haven't had a winning season in seven years and have had only 8 in his 20 years running things. He's also gone through five coaches and two interims. I'm not sure that qualifies as good.
Especially given he had a Hall of Very Good franchise QB for the majority of that run and a Hall of Fame (? Probably) WR for a decade
He’s been awful at finding good coaches and building a complementary roster.
Yeah, not unless he has no choice in the matter. And then he might find out that he likes whatever he ends up doing to waste time for a year and we might not ever see him on the sidelines again.
he might be forced to not his choice
unlees teeper offerds 30 mil a year which i dont see it
but next year u couild have the Bills jets browns jags cowboys eagles nyg vikings bears saints cards and maybe SF rams
His roster currently has more talent than the one that Belichick left in NE. But sure, turn the personnel operation over to BB.
That wasn't my point. You said McKay's done a good job in Atlanta, so I look at his record there. I don't think his record, regardless of the current roster construction, indicates that he has done a good job.
I honestly think we're spoiled as to what constitutes a good job. For instance, people took shots about him hiring Arthur Smith. Arthur Smith was the hottest coordinator on the market when he was hired. Ditto Dan Quinn when he was hired, and he took the team to a Super Bowl. It's not an exact science.
But some are better at it than others. No small sample size for McKay. As The Tuna would say, "you are what your record says you are." And McKay's record is classic "meh". But he always has a HC and GM to blame.
McKay did an amazing job in Tampa. He left there because he disagreed with the owner over the head coach. Deja vu.
Good trivia is that his first 2 draft picks as a GM both ended up in the HOF.
Good trivia is that his first 2 draft picks as a GM both ended up in the HOF.
History has shown hot coordinators rarely turn into good coaches. Part of being a good GM should be determining which coordinator will make a good head coach and not just picking the flavor of the month. Especially when those guys have very thin resumes or built their reputation on the backs of star studded units (legion of boom) which they were never going to have and McKay failed to provide.
Maybe Arthur Smith would have succeeded if McKay had had a decent succession plan to Ryan or didn’t try to roll with Heinicke and Des Ridder this year. Probably not because he seems to be overwhelmed and not actually the offensive mastermind people thought he was based on two years of offensive coordinator experience with prime Henry and AJ Brown.
Getting it wrong once? Sure. 4 straight times with Mora, Mike Smith, Quinn and Arthur Smith? McKay should shoulder quite a bit of blame for that. Petrino was a disaster and didn’t even last a year. The falcons have had 2 winning seasons since 2012. They’ve had a bottom 10 defense 7 times since 2012.
It’s crazy to think BB was run out of town and deemed a terrible GM (game has passed him by, product of Brady etc etc) for less than half the bad run McKay has had.
30 seasons as a GM of CEO/VP including his time in Tampa and he has 11 double digit win seasons, one Super Bowl ring, one Super Bowl loss and 5 total conference championship appearances. I agree with your point that Pats fans have a warped sense of what a good GM looks like but a good GM should be able to at least post more winning seasons than losing ones when he had a franchise QB.
Is Belichick being black balled? How can the greatest coach of all time go without any interest other than the Falcons. This doesn't add up
He'll be 72 before the season starts, is not likely a long-term solution for any team and will likely want to be the highest-paid coach in football. That narrows the possible choices.
Age and did you see the last 4 years plus how bad his roster construction has been?
Yeah, this seems to be the answer. Teams that need new coaches, by definition, stink. Good teams don't need coaches -- the wishcasting about Philly and Dallas notwithstanding.
So you need a shitty team that needs a coach which is also fine with a 4-year-max coach. What owner is hoping for a 4 year coach?
I think the second part of this likely has is playing on the minds of ownerships than the first. The age concern can be wiped away in a meeting. But uprooting your entire organizational structure at this point -- IF that what he's asking -- might not be a road teams want to travel, even for someone with his pedigree
The Chargers aren't THAT shitty, and they chose Harbaugh over BB.
I would have made the same decision, especially given the age difference.
And the reality is, that's what they usually end up with anyway. Most times less than that.
Brady reportedly had only two teams offer him contracts when he was a FA in 2020, and integrating a QB like Brady to replace the prior QB is arguably easier than replacing Arthur Smith with BB to oversee the entire football operation. It’s also not exactly plug and play, and you’d be foolish to expect more than 2-3 years from Bill.
Personally, and similar to Brady, I think plenty of teams are unduly comfortable with their current coaches - many of whom won’t last beyond the 2-3 years you’d have Bill overseeing things anyways - and overrate the risk/underrate the potential benefit of moving onto Bill for the next few years. But I do understand that owners may generally not want to can a guy not already on the hot seat to take a risk on a big fish coach with a short window, and many owners looking to move on/already moved on from their coach are likely thinking they’ll be one of the few to find the next young, long-term solution and don’t need/want a brand/personality like Bill running things for a few years only to start all over again even if Bill’s tenure is successful. Point is, I don’t think it’s as simple as something like ‘many owners would be clamoring for BB if only he could still run a football operation.’ There are many variables at play IMO, including aversion to risk, concern about ceding power for only a few years to a living legend like Bill who just isn’t a Mike McCarthy-esque ‘I’m just here following orders and minding my own business as I steward this thing’ soldier, and what is in my estimation an outsized confidence in finding the next golden ticket coach to steer the ship for 10 plus years.
Also, how many places would Bill go? We don’t really know yet how narrow his own search has been to-date.
also, he wants complete control and isn’t bringing prime Tom Brady with him.
the idea that he would be in massive demand seems to have been a bit off
True enough, though to get hired BB needs someone to aspire to that, which I think is a bit of a tough sell.
I posted in some thread (maybe a game thread to be fair) that Medicare age folks have trouble getting hired in any endeavor. It's just the harsh reality. Given his expertise, you'd think that might not be true for coaching, but there is also the problem that there are very few jobs.
Aside from his age, I think Bill's reputation as a cantankerous asshole is not helping him here. I known that's reductionist, but I think it plays into this. When his team is winning it's endearing or even funny, but when they are losing or there's no clear prospect of winning, it weighs on everyone. These teams also don't know Bill personally as much. All they have is the public persona and some limited interactions. When Kraft hired him he had the years with Parcells to rely on... That's not the case for any of the teams now.
I know I'm making this argument while Jolly Pete Carroll is also unemployed, but their track records aren't really in the same ballpark.
Plus there’s the money factor. It’s not like he’s coming in at anything other than top dollar.
So you’re Blank or whoever and you’re facing a scenario where you’ve got a cantankerous ahole coming in without Tom Brady that wants total power and $25m+ per year and won’t likely last more than 3/4 seasons.
I could see how some owners may not want any part of that. I think he makes way more sense for a Dallas or a Philly than an Atlanta. I’d probably do studio for a year then see what happens.
So you’re Blank or whoever and you’re facing a scenario where you’ve got a cantankerous ahole coming in without Tom Brady that wants total power and $25m+ per year and won’t likely last more than 3/4 seasons.
I could see how some owners may not want any part of that. I think he makes way more sense for a Dallas or a Philly than an Atlanta. I’d probably do studio for a year then see what happens.
Perhaps there are "sine qua nons" that Bill feels he cannot operate without. Full control is not at issue because that ship has sailed for everybody and it seems reasonable that Bill knows that. It may be as simple as hiring staff that he feels comfortable with, or how much or how little influence he will have on drafting. OTOH, he may be feeling its not worth coaching again without some of the things he thinks are necessary to succeed and without them is willing to call it a day.
Carroll is going to be 73 next season, and no one seems to be knocking down his door to hire him as a head coach either.
I have not seen any reporting that he wants total control of the operation. He willingly took 2 interviews with Atlanta knowing he would not get total control.
That aside, there are several factors at play here. Some positions that folks were speculating would be open were not (Buffalo, Dallas, Philly - lol, as nobody serious expected Siriani to be fired). The Raiders had an interim coach who was popular with the players when the team rebounded a bit from a dismal start under McDaniels. The Panthers job was probably not really a match.
To some extent, Bill can afford to be picky. Presumably, if he coaches, one goal would be to get the regular season wins record, and both the Titans and Panthers are looking at lengthy rebuilds (probably longer than New England's). There has been speculation that Bill wants to say closer to the eastern US, which makes a lot of sense given his significant real estate holdings in Nantucket and family ties in the area. There will be coaching vacancies next offseason, and being a year removed from a firing is often beneficial to a coach's image.
And, yes, the age matters, even if few coaches last as long as 5 years, never mind 10. What also matters is the fact that it's an unknown how much Bill will really want to be "just a coach" after 24 years of running the entire show. Will the incumbent front office people want to work with someone such as Belichick, who is still as competitive and as driven as ever?
One of these days, someone (not Bill) is going to write a book, and we'll hopefully get some inside dirt. Until then, all we can do is guess and speculate.
Probably also worth noting that Bill has to be interested as well. Plenty of speculation that some jobs he has no interest in.
Crazy to think he might be all done and won’t get a shot at Shula’s record. The music is close to stopping and there don’t seem to be many logical chairs left (Seattle, Carolina, Atlanta. Assuming Washington is getting B. Johnson).
Mostly in jest but maybe Andy Reid retires if the Chiefs win the Super Bowl and BB goes to KC if he’s still unemployed in 3 weeks.
Isn't the hold up related to coordinating Brady and Belichick's schedules so that they can be introduced together?
I did acknowledge that. Pete doesn't have the GOAT status of Bill, but you're right. I'm not saying age isn't a factor.
Carolina could do a lot worse than Pete. I wonder if they'd consider it. Or maybe he just needs to go to college and have a good time for his last few working years.
Interesting, that’s definitely something I’m considering differently now. If it doesn’t settle out this year some of the recent rough bits might look rosier with hind sight. A year later (and yes older) I still can’t imagine a world where zero itchy trigger fingered owners make that move.
You’ll get a 20,000 word treatise on the evolution of the single-wing formation and you’ll like it!
Yeah, any book BB writes will be a coaching/film treatise. He doesn't strike me as a tell-all guy